Some Devils, A Few Details and a Couple of Dilemmas in the Search for Sustainable Tourism

Stephen F. McCoolProfessor Emeritus

Department of Society and ConservationCollege of Forestry and Conservation

The University of Montana

Presentation to Department of Tourism, Recreation, and Sport ManagementUniversity of Florida18 April 2011

Modified for Internet 18 Oct 2011

International Tourism—Rapidly Growing

Actual and Forecasted International Arrivals

Source: World Tourism Organization

Global Forces Influencing Sustainable Tourism

Population Dynamics

Technology

Governance

Public Values Decision

Making Economic Restructuri

ng

Climate Change

Increased ContentiousnessGreater Volatility

Higher Stakes

Sustainability—Some Basic Assumptions

Human Impacts Care about the Future

From: Pearce, 1994

Some Devils

Tourism business fragmented

Some Devils

Predictable,Linear,Understandable,Stable

Dynamic,Impossible,Complex,Ever-Changing

Balancing the Economic, Social and Environmental?

Or a Question of Integrating Them?

Tourism industry is fragmented,Vertically,Horizontally,Functionally

But achieving this ideal requires Cooperation,Coordination,Collaboration

How we do this impacts our success

Namche Bazaar: An Example of Sustainable Tourism?

Caters to trekkers Small scale

development Many teahouses How much is enough?

A Few Details

A Few Details

A Few DetailsUnderlying Principle Defining Sustainable Tourism?

A Few Details

Much more difficult than expected

Not Just Difficult, but More Difficult

A Few DetailsMeasuring Success

Visitor Volume Indicators

Visitor Volume (in millions)2 Q4 2010 20.8 +5.1%

Air Visitor Component (in millions) (52.7% of total)2 Q4 2010 10.9 +7.0%

Non-Air Visitor Component (millions) (47.3% of total)2 Q4 2010 9.8 +3.0%

  YTD Visitor Volume (in millions)2 Q1-Q4 2010 82.6 +2.1%

  YTD Air Visitor Component (in millions) (51.8% of total)2 Q1-Q4 2010 42.8 +3.1%

  YTD Non-Air Visitor Component (in millions) (48.2% of total)2 Q1-Q4 2010 39.8 +1.1%

In-state Pleasure Trips by Residents (in millions) Q4 2010 2.8 -30.7%

Percent of In-State Pleasure Trips Taken by Residents Q4 2010 33.5 +0.6 pp

Economic Impact Indicators

Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales (in billions)2 Jan-11 5.6 +12.8%

  YTD Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales (in billions)2 Jan-Dec-10 60.9 +0.1%

  YTD Tax Collections from Tourism/Recreation Retail Sales (in billions)2 Jan-Dec-10 3.7 +0.1%

Rental Car Surcharge (in millions) Dec-10 9.2 +9.5%

  YTD Rental Car Surcharge (in millions) Jan-Dec-10 119.9 +5.9%

Bed Tax Collections ($ millions) 2 Oct-10 31.2 +9.4%

  YTD Bed Tax Collections($ millions) Jan-Oct-10 412.0 +5.3%

Direct Travel-Related Employment (thousands) 2 Dec-10 982.0 +3.3%

  YTD Direct Travel-Related Employment (in thousands) 2

Jan-Dec-10 961.6 -0.7%

Inputs?Outputs?

What is the Purpose?

From Visit Florida Website

A Few Details

Entrepreneurial

Institutional

Individual

Building capacities

Building professional competency increases potential ….

But does it guarantee enhanced performance?

A Couple of Dilemmas

Intra-generational vs. Inter-generational Equity Economic growth and opportunity vs.

maintenance of culture Scale and problem displacement

A Couple of Dilemmas

A Couple of Dilemmas

Intra-generational vs. Inter-generational Equity

A Couple of DilemmasEconomic growth and opportunity vs. maintenance of culture

A Couple of Dilemmas

Scale and Problem Displacement

Illusion of Sustainability

Capacity to Deal with Displaced Problems

Kruger National Park: From Game Reserve to Sustainable Tourism?

Reinventing Sustainable Tourism

Requires a Change in Our Thinking

What has an iceberg got to do with sustainable tourism?

Adapted from Senge (2008)

Sustainable Tourism

Messy problem, clumsy solution

Confusing ends with means

Thinking about futures Selecting desirable

ones Building consensus

Sustainable Tourism—What do we Mean?

Framing the question

What should tourism sustain?

Who benefits from sustainable tourism?

Role of science?

What should tourism sustain? Quality of life? Heritage? Economic opportunity?

What are the appropriate or acceptable conditions?

Who Gets to Make the Decisions?

Sustainability as a redistribution of power

Who represents the future?

How to maintain options when preferences are unknown?

Conclusions

In danger of becoming a Guiding Fiction Framing of sustainable tourism

How to make tourism sustainable? How to reduce impacts? What should tourism sustain?

Diving deeper Tourism is a complex adaptive system

Thank You

Steve.McCool@CFC.UMT.EDU