Small Cells industry update Mobile World Congress 2013 Gordon Mansfield, Chairman Monday 25 Feb

gordon@smallcellforum.org www.smallcellforum.org

•  Small Cell Forum

• Deployment Data

•  Small Cell Benefits

•  The Future • Q&A

Agenda

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012 2

Last year…we announced…

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

Evolution

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The Small Cell Forum

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

Aims Ecosystem Development

Market Education

Driving open standards

Promoting & enabling small cell technology based on licensed spectrum, operator managed, edge-based intelligence

Not-for-profit, founded in 2007

Independent, Inclusive, International

68 operators covering 2.93 billion mobile subscribers – 44% of total

74 providers of small cell technology representing all parts of the ecosystem

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Our scope – illustrated

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Applications of small cells

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etc!

User deployed Enterprise / SI or operator deployed

Operator deployed

Operator / community deployed

Shared backhaul Shared or dedicated backhaul

Dedicated wired or wireless backhaul

Dedicated wired or wireless backhaul

An increasingly wide range of femto-enabled small cells: Small Cell Forum works to enable and promote all of these

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New organization structure

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

Sept/Oct 2012

Chairman Gordon Mansfield, AT&T

Vice-chair – Europe Alan Law, Vodafone

Executive Board (15 members)

Chief Executive Graham Wright

VP Americas Andy Germano

Chief Operating Officer Richard Kennedy

Member Services Manager Lynne Price-Walker

Press and PR Officer Oliver Chapman

Vice-chair – Asia Yoshihito Shimazaki, Softbank Mobile

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Small Cell Forum Groups

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

Marketing (MKT)

Lisa Garza

Networks (NET)

Peter

Musgrove

Radio and Physical

Layer (RPH)

Nick Johnson

Regulatory (REG)

Stephen

Priestman

Inter operability

(IOP)

Karim Sharf Kreso Bilan

Services (SVC)

Andy Germano

Operator Group (OG)

Working Groups LTE

Neeraj Gupta Malek Shaid

Rural Richard

Deasington

Backhaul Viraj

Abhayawardhana

3GPP2 Andy Germano

Special Interest Groups

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Informa’s small-cell survey from Dec illustrates that 97.5% of mobile operator respondents believe that small cells are key for the future of mobile networks. According to Informa Telecoms & Media’s estimates, the number of small cells deployed overtook the total number of macro cells between October-November 2012. The small-cell market is growing at a rapid pace: The largest deployments have already reached 1 million active cells.

Market Status December’s Report

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46 deployments in 23 countries

Commercial deployments and commitments

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q3 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

6 9 13

17 18 19

31 36 37

40 41 45 46

8 12

16

24 30

34

43 44

52 53 56

60 61

Deployments

Commitments

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Source: Informa

Operators with commercial deployments

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

Includes 9 of top 10 operator groups (by revenue)

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Source: Informa

Deployments

Scaling up units: •  Sprint: Over 1 million •  Softbank: more than 100,000 •  SFR: more than 100,000 •  Vodafone UK: Hundreds of thousands of users •  AT&T: near 1 million (analyst estimates)

Today:

Over 6 million small cells deployed commercially

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

2007: 0 femtocells

Source: Informa

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•  June 2011: There were more 3G femtocells than 3G macrocells •  End of 2012: More small cells than macrocells (all technologies) •  Informa forecast: 88% of all cells will be small cells by 2016

Conclusion: the shape of mobile networks has changed

More small cells than macrocells

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Informa

End 2012: 6.4 million small cells 6.0 million macrocells

femtocells marcocells

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Rapid growth in small cell deployments, due to advantages small cells provide

Key benefits include:

•  Improved coverage

•  Greater capacity

•  Spectrum efficiency

•  New applications

•  These benefits apply equally in the home (femtocells), office (enterprise) or outside environments (metro, rural)

•  ...whilst devices remain under control of licensed network operators and operate within their own spectrum

Benefits of small cells

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Traffic offload via outdoor 3G small cells

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21%

56%

75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1x 4x 10x

% t

raff

ic o

n s

mal

l cel

ls

Small cells per macrocell Results from recently published SCF white paper www.smallcellforum.org

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Results from recently published SCF white paper on Open Access Small Cells www.smallcellforum.org

User experience improvements from public access small cells

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58%

315%

523%

31%

138%

246%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

1 4 10

All Users

Macro Users

% in

crea

se in

med

ian

th

rou

gh

pu

t ov

er m

acro

cells

alo

ne

Small cells per macrocell

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•  Small cells (licenced spectrum) and Wi-Fi are complementary

•  Products already exist with both •  But by integrating in the network as well as the access

point, the benefits are greater still •  Data can be seamlessly shifted between the cellular

and Wi-Fi networks based on the user, type of service, network congestion or quality of service requirements etc.

•  More advanced implementations allow both small cell cellular and Wi-Fi to be used simultaneously for different traffic flows or to create a single large pipe for HD media or to create a highly resilient connection.

Integrated small cell/Wi-Fi networks: beyond offload

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Small cells + Wi-Fi = smart, fine grained traffic management

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Future growth

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012

Source: Informa

91 million small cells by end 2016

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Significant activity continues. Residential Femtocells continue to accelerate while new use cases and value propositions are emerging.

Significant facts: •  The market is growing rapidly

•  We have seen the initial deployments focus on Residential

•  Enterprise is becoming a more significant market

•  A shift has occurred towards outdoor and public space deployments

•  Rural applications are emerging

•  The importance of small cell backhaul increases with every new use case

Industry Evolution

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•  Operator requirements •  Small cell backhaul •  Rural small cells •  FAPI •  LTE metrocells •  LTE timing and synchronization •  LTE small cell form factor and environmental specifications •  Small cell services, applications and API’s •  Developer outreach •  RF planning •  Multi-standard Radio Resource Management •  X2 interoperability •  Integrated small cell Wi-Fi networks •  Enterprise architecture •  Security •  Regulatory •  Plug-fest

A Sample of Forum work in progress

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Towards Open & Multi-Technology

•  Mobile World Congress; Barcelona; Small Cell Zone; February 25 – 28 •  Small Cells Asia & SCF’s 23rd Plenary; Seoul, Korea; March 2013 •  Small Cell World Summit – London UK; June 2013

We welcome your membership & participation

Upcoming events

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Sign Up, Engage , Shape the Market

Questions?

Q & A

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Thank you! Gordon Mansfield, Chairman, Small Cell Forum gordon@smallcellforum.org www.smallcellforum.org

Feb 2013 © Small Cell Forum Ltd 2012 23