Situation Analysis Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common Understanding of Your Project.

Situation Analysis

Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common

Understanding of Your Project

** Draft Presentation for Testing Purposes **Version: 18 December 2002

This presentation is based on materials that were initially developed by Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy and then modified through joint work.

The Enhanced Five-S Framework

Stresses & SourcesStresses & Sources• Critical Threats• Situation Analysis

StrategiesStrategies• Goal & Objectives• Strategic Actions & Tasks

SuccessSuccess• Indicators & Monitoring• Summary Measures

Analyze & CommunicateImplement & Monitor

Adapt and Learn

SystemsSystems• Focal Targets• Rigorous Viability

Why Do We Need a Common Understanding of Our Project?

Members of a project team have: Potentially different goals and objectives Lack of understanding of characteristics

of targets Varying assumptions about what affects

targets Varying knowledge about leverage

opportunities Inconsistent use of terms

What Did We Do Before?

The current “Five-S Approach” helps practitioners to assess the situation at the site. In particular, it: Specifies stresses that affect targets Identifies sources of stress

Why are Improvements Needed?

The current “Five-S” system does not consistently: Specify assumptions regarding chains

of factors affecting targets Identify the ultimate threats driving

the system Present a simple yet comprehensive

picture of the situation at the project site that can be shared with partners

Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis

a. Identify threats and other factors affecting targets.

b. Link targets, threats, and other factors in a chain of causation and/or conceptual model.

c. Prioritize the threats you will address.

What is a Conceptual Model?

A diagram of a set of relationships between certain factors and the targets. A good conceptual model:

1. Presents a picture of the situation at the project site

2. Shows assumed linkages between factors

3. Shows both direct and indirect threats

4. Presents only relevant factors

5. Is based on sound information

6. Results from a team effort

1. Presents a Picture of the Situationat the Project Site

Relationship

Factor

ActionBio

a ConsrvTarget

ConsrvTarget B

ity in

ConsrvTarget

Initial Conceptual Model:Initial Conceptual Model:Situation at Site Prior to the Project

Factor

ConsrvTarget B

ity in

Factor

ConsrvTarget

Project Conceptual Model:Project Conceptual Model:How Project Will Change Situation

Action

Factor

ConsrvTarget

Viability Obj

Factor

Action

Threat Obj

Factor

ConsrvTarget

Viability Obj

2. Shows Assumed LinkagesBetween Factors

A Conceptual Model shows how you assume factors relate to one another. For example:

ReefDamage

SiltationDeforest-

ationErosion& Runoff

leadsto

Coral Reefat Our Site

3. Shows Major Direct and Indirect Threats

Direct Threats = Factors that immediatelyimpact the target condition.

- Anchor damage

- Sedimentation

Indirect Threats = Factors that underlie or lead to the direct threats.

- Need for cash

- Economic crises

4. Presents Only Relevant Factors(Modeling is both a Science and an Art)

ReefDamage

SiltationDeforest-

leadsto

ExcessRainfall

ClimatePatterns

Sunspots

4. Presents Only Relevant Factors(Modeling is both a Science and an Art)

ReefDamage

SiltationDeforest-

leadsto

USATimber

Demand

CaliforniaHousingStarts

Successof MovieBusiness

Emergenceof New Sex

Symbols

WorldTimberPrices

ExcessRainfall

ClimatePatterns

Sunspots

5. Is Based on Sound Information

Existing Info = Data that have already been collected for some other purpose than designing and monitoring your project

Primary Info = Data that you specifically collect while designing and monitoring your project

6. Results from a Team Effort

An Example of a Conceptual Model

UpperFloodplainChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Fire supression

Forestry

Conversion toagriculture

Natural flooding cyclefrom river to floodplain

Water levelsin river

Siltation

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Water tablelevels

Surface waterdiversions

Fire supression

Forestry

Siltation

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Water tablelevels

Groundwaterpumping

Overappropriationof surface water

Fire supression

Forestry

Siltation

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Fire supression

Forestry

Siltation

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic spp

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Agriculturalpractices

Fire supression

Forestry

Siltation

UpperWatershed

NativeAquatic sppLogging practices

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Altered fire regime

Siltation

UpperFloodplain

Levees (streamchannelization)

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

ExoticSpecies

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

“Enlightened”agency policy

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Precipitation

Altered fire regime

Siltation

UpperFloodplain

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Bullfrogs

Cowbirds

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Precipitation

Altered fire regime

Siltation

The Model in “Five-S” Terminology

UpperFloodplain

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Bullfrogs

Cowbirds

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Precipitation

Altered fire regime

Siltation

Initial Conceptual Model:Initial Conceptual Model:Situation at Site Prior to the Project

UpperFloodplain

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

NativeAmphibians

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Bullfrogs

Cowbirds

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Precipitation

Altered fire regime

Siltation

UpperFloodplain

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

ChinookSalmon

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Bullfrogs

Cowbirds

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Removeegg masses

Obtaineasements

Purchaseland

Promote watersaving practices

Lobby state govtfor incentives forlow water crops

Precipitation

Breachlevees

Obj 2Lobby local govtto limit water use

Altered fire regime

Obj 4a

Obj 4bSiltation

Project Conceptual Model:Project Conceptual Model: How Project Will Change Situation

The Enhanced Five-S Framework for Measuring Conservation Impact

Stresses & SourcesStresses & Sources• Critical Threats• Situation Analysis

StrategiesStrategies• Goal & Objectives• Strategic Actions & Tasks

SuccessSuccess• Indicators & Monitoring• Summary Measures

Analyze & CommunicateImplement & Monitor

Adapt and Learn

SystemsSystems• Focal Targets• Rigorous Viability

Initial Conceptual ModelInitial Conceptual Model

UpperFloodplain

ChinookSalmon

UpperWatershed

LowerFloodplain

Swainson'sHawk

NativeAmphibians

RiparianForest

Gr. SandhillCrane C

Bullfrogs

Cowbirds

Water tablelevels

Demand forwater

Groundwaterpumping

Housingdevelopments

Fire supression

Forestry

Precipitation

Altered fire regime

Siltation

Conceptual Model Break-Out Session

For your project site: Identify major factors affecting

targets Build an “initial conceptual model”

Situation Analysis Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common Understanding of Your Project.

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