Seismic Hazard Assessment of KPK

UET

Presented By:

Engr. Muhammad Nouman

(MS Structural Engineering student)

Supervised By:

Engr. Dr. Naveed Ahmad

(Assistant Professor, UET Peshawar)

Steps of Cornel’s Approach of PSHA

1. Study Area.2. Sources Used as per compilation.3. Composite catalogue.4. Regression Analysis.5. Homogenization of catalogue.6. Declustering of Catalogue.7. Plotting the Declustered Catalogue8. Completeness analysis.9. Zoning.10. Recurrence Models .11. Hazard computation using CRISIS-2007.

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

3

Introduction

Area of Responsibility:

• The area for which seismic hazard is to be computed, which is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) in our case.

Area of influence (AI):

• It is the region surrounding KPK Boundary in which if any earthquake occurs will affect KPK.

• It is taken 200 Km area surrounding KPK.

Area of influence

200 KM

KPK

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

Area of Responsibility

4

Sources used in the compilation of the catalogue

• The seismic event data was collected From the Following Sources (year 1500 to 2016).

No. Sources

1 Ambrasey and Douglas (2004)

2 Ambrasey (2000)

3 Qittermeyer & Jacob (1979)

4 International Seismological Center (ISC)

5 Global – CMT

6 National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)

7 USGS

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

29.49824 S 38.72559 N68.26591 W 75.88964 E

• All the sources data was merged in excel sheet and Combined or Composite catalogue was formed.

• It Consisted of 12788 Earthquake events.

• The data is filtered and sorted.

• All the duplicate events are colored which were reported in two or more sources.

5

Combined Catalogue

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

• Homogenization Relationships

6

Homogenization

Relationship between

Relationship (Equation)

Mw & MS ≤ 6.2 Mw=0.5998Ms+2.3885

Mw& MS > 6.2 Mw=0.8573Ms+0.8806

Mw & Mb Mw=0.7998Mb+1.135

Mw & ML Mw=0.0487Ml+5.2428

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

• Using the relationships shown above, all the sources data is converted to Mw.

7

Homogenization

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

• Sources Priority

8

Homogenization

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

1) Ambrasey and Douglas (2004)

2) Ambrasey (2000)

3) Qittermeyer & Jacob (1979)

4) ISC

5) Global – CMT

6) NGDC

7) USGS

9

The Homogenized Catalogue

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

1. DE-CLUSTERING :

• Aftershocks And Foreshocks are temporally and spatially dependent on the main shocks.

• De-clustering is performed to remove these dependent events from the catalogue.

• The De-clustered Catalogue consists of independent events which is also known as Independent Catalogue.

• The Method used is Gardner & Kenopoff 1974 De-clustering Algorithm.

• The De-Clustering was done using ZMAP programming in MATLAB.

10

Processing of Earthquake Catalogue

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

11

The De-Clustered Catalogue

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

2. Completeness analysis (Visual inspection method)

• One of the methods used for completeness is Visual Cumulative method (CUVI) formulated by Mulargia and Tinti (1985).

• It is a simple, graphical procedure based on the observation that earthquakes follow a stationary occurrence process.

• For a given magnitude class, the period of completeness is considered to begin at the earliest time when the slope of the fitting curve can be well approximated by a straight line.

12

Processing of Earthquake Catalogue

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

13

Completeness analysis (Visual inspection method)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (4-4.5)

CP=1995

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (4.6-5)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (5.1-5.5)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

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ents

Year

Completeness (5.6-6)

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

14

Mw Average Mw Interval Tc

4.0- 4.5 4.25 1995-2016 20

4.51 - 5.0 4.75 1984-2016 31

5.01 - 5.50 5.25 1973-2016 42

5.51 - 6.0 5.75 1961-2016 54

6.01 - 6.5.0 6.25 1931-2016 84

>= 6.6 6.75 1907-2016 108

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (6.1-6.5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1490 1590 1690 1790 1890 1990 2090

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

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ents

Year

Completeness (6.6 onwards)

Processing of the earthquake catalogue

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

15

Seismic sources considered in the analysis(Building Code of Pakistan)

Seismic Sources Georeferenced with map of Pakistan

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

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Seismic Zones After De-clustering:

1. Shallow Seismic Zones ( Depth < 50km )

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

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Shallow seismic zones with shallow events

ZoneNo. of

Earthquakes

Minimum

Mw

Maximum

Mw

1 482 4 7.7

2 90 4.2 6

3 104 4.3 7.6

4 149 4 7.6

5 48 4 6.8

6 75 4.3 5.9

7 154 4.2 6.4

8 42 4.1 6.4

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

18

Deep Earthquake Zones

Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

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Deep seismic Zones with Events

Zone No. of

Earthquakes

Minimum

Mw

Maximum

Mw

1 726 4 7.5

2 165 4 6.7

3 110 4.3 5.9

Seismic Micro zonation

Presented by

Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

• The Gutenberg–Richter law(GR law) expresses the relationship between the magnitude and total number of earthquakes in any given region and time period of at least that magnitude.

• Inputs for crisis needs the values of commutative frequency “N” or “λ” which is the number of magnitude earthquakes per year. It can be obtained from G-R relationship in recurrence model.

•

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Gutenberg–Richter law

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Presented by

Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

log10𝑁 = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑀

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Gutenberg Richter Models for Shallow Zones

N = 10 5.612-1.0599Mw

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 1

N = 10 3.879-0.9192Mw

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 2

N = 10 5.3967-1.1539Mw

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 3

N = 10 4.996-1.0164Mw

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 4

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22

Gutenberg Richter Models for Shallow Zones

N = 10 4.3117-1.007Mw

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 5

y = 10 6.0562-1.3219Mw

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 6

N = 10 6.1028-1.2411Mw

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 7

N = 10 4.104 -0.9684Mw

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 8

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

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G-R Parameters for Shallow Zones

Seismic Zone a b

1 5.612 1.0599

2 3.879 0.9192

3 5.3967 1.1539

4 4.996 1.0164

5 4.3117 1.007

6 6.0562 1.3219

7 6.1028 1.2411

8 4.104 0.9684

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G-R models for deep seismic zones

G-R Parameters for Deep Zones

N = 10 5.7137-1.2193Mw

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Deep ZONE 2

N = 10 4.6056-1.0108Mw

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Deep ZONE 3

Seismic Zone a b

1 4.9046 0.8564

2 5.7137 1.2193

3 4.6056 1.0108

N = 10 4.9046-0.8564Mw

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Deep ZONE 1

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

• Inputs for crisis needs the values of commutative frequency “λ” which is the number of magnitude earthquakes per year. It can be obtained from G-R relationship in recurrence model.

• Log (λ) = a-b*M

o α=a*2.303

o β=b*2.303

25

Hazard Computation Using CRISIS 2007

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

• Shallow Zones

26

CRISIS Input Parameters

Seismic Zone a b λ M0 Mmax α β

1 5.612 1.0599 23.57 4 6.8 12.92444 2.44095

2 3.879 0.9192 1.59 4 5.8 8.933337 2.116918

3 5.3967 1.1539 6.04 4 6.3 12.4286 2.657432

4 4.996 1.0164 8.52 4 6.8 11.50579 2.340769

5 4.3117 1.007 1.92 4 5.3 9.929845 2.319121

6 6.0562 1.3219 5.87 4 5.8 13.94743 3.044336

7 6.1028 1.2411 13.75 4 6.3 14.05475 2.858253

8 4.104 0.9684 1.7 4 5.3 9.451512 2.230225

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• Deep Zones

CRISIS Input Parameters

Seismic Zone a b λ M0 Mmax α β

1 4.9046 0.8564 30.13 4 6.8 11.29529 1.972289

2 5.7137 1.2193 6.86 4 6.8 13.15865 2.808048

3 4.6056 1.0108 3.65 4 5.3 10.6067 2.327872

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For Shallow Zones:

1. Akkar and Boomer ,2010

2. Bore and Atkinson,NGA 2008

For Deep Zones:

1. Lin and Lee ,2008

2. Kanno et al.,2006

- Grid size used in the analysis = 0.05

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Ground Motion Prediction Equations

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29

Ground Motion Maps

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Levels Used in the Ground Motion Maps

The levels are divided according to the values used in Building Code of Pakistan as follows:

1. ZONE 1 : 0.01-0.08 g2. ZONE 2A : 0.08-0.16 g3. ZONE 2B : 0.16-0.24 g4. ZONE 3 : 0.24-0.32 g5. ZONE 4 : > 0.32 g

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31

Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones for 50yrs Return Period

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32Seismic Micro zonation

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Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones 100yrs Return Period

33Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones 250yrs Return Period

34Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones 475yrs Return Period

35Seismic Micro zonation

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Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones 2500yrs Return Period