Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min KimPong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim

Central Meteorological Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR

Korea Korea

ContentsContents1. Recent Climate Features

2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction

3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

1. Recent Climate Features1. Recent Climate Features

Variation of TemperatureVariation of Temperature in Summer(JJA) in Summer(JJA)

Variation of Precipitation Variation of Precipitation in Summer(JJA)in Summer(JJA)

Mean temperature 21.7℃(+0.4℃)Jun. 19.5℃(+0.8℃)Jul. 22.4℃(+0.2℃)Aug. 23.1℃(+0.8℃)

Precipitation 757.6 ㎜ (136 ％ )Western part 754~1081 ㎜ (129~185 ％ )Eastern part 365~951 ㎜ (71~185 ％ )Northern Inland region 447~925 ㎜

(97~202 ％ )

The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA)The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA)

Mean temperature -8.1℃(-2.3℃)Dec. -9℃(-3.9℃) Jan. -9.2℃(-1.1℃)Feb. -6.2℃(-1.7℃)

Precipitation 55.3 ㎜ (+13.1 ㎜ ) Dec. 22.5 ㎜ (+6.7 ㎜ )Jan. 12.9 ㎜ (+0.3 ㎜ ) Feb. 19.9 ㎜ (+6.2 ㎜ )

The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF)The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF)

2. ENSO Monitoring & 2. ENSO Monitoring & PredictionPrediction

Recent ENSO ConditionRecent ENSO ConditionTropical Pacific SSTA FEB 2013

Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013

-0.6℃

Mean SSTA in Niño3.4 area

Time-Longitude SSTA (5N-5S)

ENSO Prediction of CMFCENSO Prediction of CMFC

Pacific SSTA prediction by analogue method

for summer(JJA)(1977, 1994)

6-month prediction of Niño 3.4 index by statistical methods

Niño 3.4 index: near or above normal

But significance :relatively low

3. Dynamic & Statistical 3. Dynamic & Statistical PredictionsPredictions

Dynamic Prediction Dynamic Prediction by CAM3.0by CAM3.0

JJA 500 hPa mean and anomalyJJA 500 hPa mean and anomaly

Interpreting the model ∘ Temperature: near normalTemperature: near normal

∘ Precipitation: below Precipitation: below

or near normal or near normal

∘ Meridional circulation : strengthened in middle latitude of East Asia ∘ Okhotsk high : stronger∘ West Pacific Subtropical High : weaker than normal

500hPa Height Prediction & Anomaly by Seasonal Variation in Atmospheric Circulation

Composition years : 1973, 1980, 1992, 2005, 2011

Temperature: near NormalTemperature: near Normal

Precipitation: below Precipitation: below

or near or near

normalnormal

Physical and Physical and Statistical Prediction Statistical Prediction

Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Predicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 IndexPredicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 Index

for Summerfor Summer

SummarySummary

1. 1. Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRKSeasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRK

Temperature : Near normal Temperature : Near normal

Precipitation : Below or near normalPrecipitation : Below or near normal

Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be appearedappeared

2. 2. Monsoon activity: Monsoon activity: Near Near normal normal

3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic 3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic Subtropical High weaker than normalSubtropical High weaker than normal