Post on 05-Apr-2017
Science-based targets Backgrounds, method and examples
Presentation given for the Green Buildings
Council of Australia
3/14/2017
Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and
Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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Australian national action on climate change
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
2
1998 The world’s first government agency dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions - Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO)
2013 Dismantling of four climate change programs begins and climate change
functions moved into Department of Environment
Source: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/Climate2015
1976 Australian Academy of Science reports that human activities are likely to contribute to warming
1989 First Australian greenhouse gas emissions reduction proposal submitted to Cabinet
Images ©
Austr
alian G
reen H
ouse O
ffic
e
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Australian national action on climate change
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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1997 Australia signs the Kyoto Protocol
2002 Australia refuses to ratify the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Australia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol
1998 The world’s first government agency dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions - Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO)
2013 Dismantling of four climate change programs begins and climate change
functions moved into Department of Environment
Source: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/Climate2015
1976 Australian Academy of Science reports that human activities are likely to contribute to warming
1989 First Australian greenhouse gas emissions reduction proposal submitted to Cabinet
Images ©
Austr
alian G
reen H
ouse O
ffic
e;
CC0/P
ixabay/w
ale
sja
cqueline
© ECOFYS. A Navigant Company. | |
Australian national action on climate change
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
4
1997 Australia signs the Kyoto Protocol
2002 Australia refuses to ratify the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Australia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol
1998 The world’s first government agency dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions - Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO)
2013 Dismantling of four climate change programs begins and climate change
functions moved into Department of Environment
2003 The world’s first mandatory emission trading scheme - NSW GGAS
2012 Price on carbon comes into effect ($23)
2012 Australia and the EU agree to link ETSs
2014 Price on carbon repealed - Australia becomes the first nation to reverse
action on climate change
Source: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/Climate2015
1976 Australian Academy of Science reports that human activities are likely to contribute to warming
1989 First Australian greenhouse gas emissions reduction proposal submitted to Cabinet
Images ©
Austr
alian G
reen H
ouse O
ffic
e;
CC0/P
ixabay/w
ale
sja
cqueline;
Foto
lia/h
ansenn
© ECOFYS. A Navigant Company. | |
Australian national action on climate change
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
5
1997 Australia signs the Kyoto Protocol
2002 Australia refuses to ratify the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Australia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol
1998 The world’s first government agency dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions - Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO)
2013 Dismantling of four climate change programs begins and climate change
functions moved into Department of Environment
2003 The world’s first mandatory emission trading scheme - NSW GGAS
2012 Price on carbon comes into effect ($23)
2012 Australia and the EU agree to link ETSs
2014 Price on carbon repealed - Australia becomes the first nation to reverse
action on climate change
2001 Mandatory Renewable Energy Target scheme (MRET) starts 10% by 2010
2009 Renewable energy target increased to 20% by 2020 (45,000 GWh)
2015 Renewable energy target adjusted to 23.5% by 2020 (33,000 GWh)
2017 Clean coal back on the agendaSource: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/Climate2015
1976 Australian Academy of Science reports that human activities are likely to contribute to warming
1989 First Australian greenhouse gas emissions reduction proposal submitted to Cabinet
Images ©
Austr
alian G
reen H
ouse O
ffic
e;
CC0/P
ixabay/w
ale
sja
cqueline;
Foto
lia/h
ansenn;
Foto
lia/b
uchachon
© ECOFYS. A Navigant Company. | |
State action on climate change
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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NSW sets net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050 as
Australian pollution climbs
NSW Climate Change Policy Framework, 2016
Victorian Government commits Victoria to going carbon
neutral by 2050
Victoria’s Climate Change Framework, 2016
Queensland Government is exploring options for climate
change mitigation
Advancing Climate Action in Queensland
Images ©
NSW
Clim
ate
Change P
olicy F
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f Environm
ent
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At the COP21, 195 countries made the binding agreement to
limit global warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts
towards 1.5 °C
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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> Global absolute emission are still increasing, more
mitigation actions are needed to limit global warming
well below 2 °C and to prevent catastrophic impacts of
climate change
> Staying well below 2 °C implies net zero CO2 emissions
around 2070. Shifting from 2 °C to 1.5 °C even means
net zero CO2 emissions around 2050, which implies
taking action sooner, achieve their targets faster and
scale it bigger (more reductions; more negative
emissions after 2050)
> The Paris Agreement will lead to robust policy
frameworks and huge flows of climate finance to drive
the massive transformation in all sectors, creating risk
and opportunities for companies
Source: Rogelj et al., 2015
Assessment of scientific mitigation scenarios
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Science-based targets are targets that are in line with
limiting global warming to well below 2 °C
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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> According to IPCC, approximately 1,000 Gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) remains to be
emitted in order to keep global warming well below 2 oC (=global carbon budget, the green surface
in the graph)2.
> This remaining global carbon budget should be allocated over the various industries in a fair and
transparent way. Non-CO2 emissions
2 The global carbon budget is expressed in only CO2 emissions, since the increase of global CO2 is the main contributor to global GHG emissions rise. However in determining the global carbon budget, the reduction of non-CO2 emissions are taken into account as well.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annual gre
enhouse g
as
em
issio
ns (
GtC
O2eq/y
r)
Non-CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions
Business As Usual
Global carbon budget
Non-CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions
(Source: modified by Ecofys based on IPCC)
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> In a joint effort, CDP, UN Global Compact, WRI and WWF launched the Science Based Targets initiative (www.sciencebasedtargets.org)
> Ecofys was commissioned as consultancy partner to support the development of the
Science-based Targets methodology and accompanying tool
> Goal
To raise the ambition of corporate emission targets,
– to support a transition to a low carbon economy and
– keep the planet below a 2°C temperature rise. Trend: 1.5 degrees strategies.
> Objective
Enable Science-based emission targets in line with the 2°C scenario from the
IPCC to become standard business practice
Initiation of Science-based Targets
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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Over 210 companies already committed to
set science-based targets
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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Americas
• Avery Dennison
• BanColombia SA
• Coca-Cola Ent., Inc.
• Colgate Palmolive Company
• Dell Inc.
• General Mills Inc.
• Hewlett-Packard
• Host Hotels & Resorts
• Kellogg Company
• Mars
• Novex Delivery Solutions
• NRG Energy
• Procter & Gamble Co.
• Pfizer
• Walmart
• Xerox Co.
Europe
• Acciona S.A.
• Alpro
• Atos SE
• AXA Group
• BT Group
• Carrefour
• Commerzbank AG
• Correos (Grupo Sepi)
• Crédit Agricole
• CNH Industrial NV
• Daimler AG
• Danone
• Diageo
• Eneco
• Enel
• Energias de Portugal
• Ingersoll Rand
• Intern. Post Co.
• Gas Natural Fenosa
• GlaxoSmithKline
Asia
• Aditya Birla Chemicals
• ASICS
• China Steel Co.
• Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.
• Delta electronics
• Honda Motor Company
• Konica Minolta
• Sony Co.
• Toyota Motor Co.
• Yingli Solar
• Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd.
Oceania
• Australian Ethical Investment
• Bank Australia
• Infigen Energy
• Origin Energy
• Westpac
South Africa
• Pick ‘n Pay Stores
• Safaricom Ltd.
• Tiger Brands
• Woolworths Holdings
• Groupe SEB
• H&M AB
• IKEA
• L’Oréal
• MVV Energie AG
• National Express Group
• Metro AG
• Nestlé
• Novartis
• Panalpina
• PSA Peugeot Citroen
• PUMA
• Renault
• Royal Philips
• SNCF
• Société Générale
• Sodexo
• Suez Environnement
• Thalys
• Unilever
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Inspiration: what do other companies do?
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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Company Target Base year
Target year
Swisscom 10% emission reductions for Scope 1100% emission reductions for Scope 218% emission reductions for Scope 3
2013 2020
Capgemini UK PLC 40% emission reductions for Scope 1-3 2014 2030
Autodesk 43% emission reductions for Scope 1-3 2008 2050
Dell 50% emission reductions from facilities and logistics operations 80% reduction of energy intensity of product portfolio
2011 2020
Hewlett Packard Enterprise 25% reductions for Scope 1-2 2015 2025
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. 28% reductions of emissions per square foot basis for Scope 1-2 2008 2020
International Post Corporation
20% emission reductions for Scope 1-3 2013 2025
PostNord 40% emission reductions for Scope 1-3 2009 2020
Proximus 30% emission reductions for Scope 1-250% emission reductions for Scope 3
2014 2040
Sony 90% emission reductions for Scope 1-3 2008 2050
Mars 25% emission reductions for Scope 1 and 2 by 2015 from a 2007 base year and eliminate these emissions by 2040work on addressing Scope 3 emissions which constitute up to 86% of the company’s GHG footprint
2007 2040
BT Group 80% emission reductions for Scope 1-3 1996 2020
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The Science Based Targets Initiative
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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Current target setting practices Science-based target setting practices
To support companies in setting science-based targets and to make this common business practice, CDP, UN Global Compact, World Resources Institute (WRI) and WWF launched:
Science Based Targets initiative www.sciencebasedtargets.org
Science-based target setting
> 81% of the Global 500 companies have targets
> Companies have difficulty setting credible and sustainable emission reduction targets
> Common target setting practices: ▪ Bottom-up targets (focus on
incremental change)▪ Targets based on peers▪ Not aligned with science▪ Not full coverage of companies’
emissions▪ Short-term
Source: Mindthescience.sciencebasedtargets.org, 2015
> A long-term vision based on global trends and climate science
> Targets aligned with global growth of population and wealth and with the Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C
> Targets which allow for decoupling of emissions from economic growth
> Long-term instead of short-term targets
Current target setting practices
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> Scope 1&2 boundary: cover company-wide scope 1&2 emissions as required in the GHG Protocol
Corporate Standard
> Timeframe: target year to be between 5 and 15 years from date of announcement
> Level of ambition: all companies should endeavor in efforts to go beyond 2 degrees scenarios in
order to achieve, as per agreement language, “well below 2 degrees”.
> Choice of approach: companies should not default to the “easiest” option, but instead determine
which method best serves both the business and the environment
> Scope 3: ambitious & measurable target with a clear time-frame if scope 3 emissions are
>40% of company’s total scope 1, 2 and 3 footprint
> Scope 3 boundary: include majority of value chain emissions as defined by the GHG Protocol
Corporate Value Chain (scope 3) Accounting and Reporting Standard
> Additional recommendations include:
– Companies are encouraged to also develop long-term goals (e.g. 2050).
– Companies are encouraged to express their targets on an absolute AND intensity basis
Science-based Targets initiative target requirements
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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The sectoral decarbonization approach: from climate
science to individual company targets
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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For the Science Based Targets initiative a new methodology,
called the Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA) was
developed
There are several reasons why to use the SDA:
> SDA was developed with CDP, WRI and WWF with technical
support of Ecofys and is the most recent and most detailed
method.
> SDA is transparent, well documented, reviewed through an
extensive stakeholder consultation process and published in
Nature Climate Change
> SDA takes into account sectoral differences (i.e. differences in
mitigation potential, mitigation costs and growth)
> SDA is the only method that differentiate between Scope 1
and Scope 2
> SDA will be refined and updated on regular basis and more
and more sector-specific decarbonization pathways will be
added over time (like for agricultural commodities, freight
transport etc.)
Source: www.sciencebasedtargets.org, 2014/2015
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The SDA methodology is based on a least-cost modelled
2 °C scenario of International Energy Agency (IEA 2DS)
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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> The SDA methodology combines sectoral emissions pathways with sectoral activity projections
from IEA 2DS to construct sectoral intensity pathways for homogeneous sectors i.e. Power,
Cement, Iron and Steel, Aluminum, Pulp and Paper, Service Buildings and Passenger Transport.
> For three heterogeneous sectors physical allocation physical allocation is not possible, and absolute
reduction is used to allocate the remainder of the carbon budget. Heterogeneous sectors are
Chemical and Petrochemicals, Other industry and Other transport
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Dir
ect
CO
2em
issio
ns (
GtC
O2)
Sectoral breakdown of global carbon budgetService buildings
Other transport
Aviation passenger transport
Rail passenger transport
Heavy road passenger transport
Light road passenger transport
Other industry
Pulp and paper
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Aluminium
Iron and steel
Cement
Power generation
(Source: modified by Ecofys based on IEA, 2014)
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SDA methodology uses physical allocation for homogeneous
sectors and absolute allocation for heterogeneous sectors
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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Homogeneous sectors
Heterogeneous sectors
Physical allocation:The SDA methodology assumes that the carbon intensity for the companies in all homogeneous sectors tend to converge in 2050. The rate of convergence depends on the differential between the carbon intensity of the company and the 2ºC carbon intensity of the sector in 2050 and the predicted change in market share of the company.
Absolute allocation:For heterogeneous sectors, the SDA methodology is based on the compression of absolute emissions, which means that the absolute emissions of all companies in the sector will be reduced by the same percentages as the sector in the target year.
Source Ecofys, 2015 Sectoral Decarbonization Approach
Based on Sectoral Decarbonization Approach
Source Ecofys, 2015 Sectoral Decarbonization Approach
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> GHG emissions inventory based on the GHG protocol or ISO
> Activity growth projections on companies major activities (to be matched
with sectoral decarbonization approach sectors)
> The science-based targets tool available through sciencebasedtargets.org
Applying the SDA, which information is needed to set a
SBT?
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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> From 2011 until 2050, XXXXX’s service buildings scope 1 and scope 2 absolute emissions need to decline by xx% to align
with 2°C, equivalent to decreasing carbon intensity by xx%.
A real estate example
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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An example of a comprehensive target using several
sectoral decarbonization approach sectors
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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2010 Target 2020 Target 2050
kto
n C
O2e
Absolute emission targets
Avoided operational fleetemissionsAvoided administrative fleetemissionsAvoided building emissions
Scope 1 operational fleet
Scope 1 administrative fleet
-40%
-90%
-15% -80%
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> The first step is to make high level assumptions of the impact on the energy-use and associated CO2e
emissions of a companies' current plans (e.g. renovation plan, new buildings, demolishing old
buildings, etc.) to give an idea if the current plans are sufficient to meet the science-based target
> If the current emission reduction plans are not sufficient to meet the target, the next step is to
suggest a set of extra abatement measures that the company can take to reduce its CO2e emissions
What do you need to do to achieve science-based
targets level
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
SBT
Baseline
Energy reduction current plans
Energy reduction suggested extra measures
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns (
tCO
2)
Example
output
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1. Increase credibility of climate target and get recognition and exposure by NGOs
2. Demonstrate leadership, build on a green reputation to increase stakeholder value and
attract excellent talents
3. Outperform sector peers in benchmarks, increase rating scores and attractiveness for
investors
4. Get long term guidance to steer investments, drive innovation and transform business
practices
5. Save money and increase competitiveness by gaining insight in company performance
and improvement potential
6. Gain insight in required sector transformations and position for upcoming policy
regulations
Key benefits of setting science-based targets
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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> Commit to take action
> Establish your targets (and align your climate strategy)
> Get your science-based targets approved
Three simple steps to get an approved
science-based target
3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
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At a glance: Ecofys. A Navigant Company.
Global consulting company founded in 1984 with the mission to enable
sustainable energy for everyone – since 2016, Ecofys is part of Navigant’s
global Energy practice
Over 600 experts skilled in energy, climate, environment, economy,
communication, legal, and psychology – in 2007, eleven of our experts supported
the IPCC, being awarded with the Nobel Prize together with Al Gore
More than 30 years of experience in developing and evaluating policies,
sustainability strategies, and scenarios for companies and sectors provides us with
deep knowledge of markets and consumer behaviour
Our strength lies in our strategic understanding of complex energy and climate
transition issues: Ecofys connects the dots within the triangle between
governments, energy players, and (energy-intensive) end-users Copyright in
form
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3/14/2017 Vincent Hoen, v.hoen@ecofys.com and Jonas Bengtsson, jonas.bengtsson@edgeenvironment.com.au
Ecofys has five offices in four countries: Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cologne &
Berlin, Germany; Brussels, Belgium; London, United Kingdom – as part of
Navigant, our experts are based in more than 20 offices in the US, Hong Kong
and the Middle East
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Edge Environment is a leading consulting firm specialised in supporting companies to
measure, understand and manage the environmental and social impacts of their
products, services and operations, using best practice based on sound science.
Our services include:
At a glance: Edge Environment
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Find us
OnlineOn the spot
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Find the full set of offices here.
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