Post on 22-Jan-2016
description
Ryan ThorpeChief Operating Officer
Tharaldson Ethanol
Tharaldson Ethanol
Tharaldson Ethanol
Energy and Security Act of 2007Also known as RFS2
Ethanol Mandate2011- 12.6 Billion Gallons2012- 13.2 Billion Gallons2013- 13.8 Billion Gallons2014- 14.4 Billion Gallons2015- 15 Billion Gallons
Ethanol Margins
EPA announcement 11-15-13
• EPA reduces 2014 total mandate from 18.15BB gallons to 15.21. This is made up of corn based ethanol, advanced biofuels, and biomass-based diesel
• Corn based ethanol cut from 14.4BB to 13.1BB gallons
• I will focus on corn based ethanol
Fallout from EPA announcement
• Long term-puts pressure on the future of corn based ethanol, limits its growth
• Leaves no room for cellulosic biofuel growth• Caps the ethanol penetration at 10%, reducing
the need to get E-15 at the pump, even though ethanol is currently $1 cheaper than gasoline
The real loser from this announcement
• The American Farmer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!• United States corn ending stocks for 2014 will
be the highest since 2005, 1.8BB bushels (prior to the ethanol boom)
• World ending corn stocks for 2014 will be the highest since 2001, 162MM tons (6.36BB bushels)
US Corn Ending Stocks
World Corn Ending Stocks
2014 Estimate US Corn
US Corn Ending Stocks vsStocks / Usage Ratio
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14Est
En
din
g S
tock
s in
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
27%
Sto
cks / Usag
e Ratio
Ending Stocks Stocks as % of UsageUpdated: 09/12/2013 2014 = ADMIS Estimate
World Soybeans Ending Stocks
North Dakota Ethanol Production
• 2005- 30,000,000• 2008-128,935,229• 2011-383,574,864• 2012-365,093,524• 2013-367,145,656
Percentage of Ethanol Exported out of ND
• 2008-82%• 2011-93%• 2012-92.5%• 2013-92%
Questions????