Post on 19-Apr-2020
Role of Cities to Achieve
2 degree target
1
Junichi FUJINOIGES/NIES
Japan-China Climate Policy Research Workshop
Sep 7 2017, Beijing
2
19:27pm Dec 11th 2015 in Le Bourget, Paris3:27am Dec 12th 2015 in Tokyo, Japan
Paris Agreement to me2 degree/1.5 degree
-> zero/minus emissions by 2100
Country needs to submit CCAP (climate change action plan)
every 5 year and review process
Role of Non-State Actors(Business + Local Governments)
What happens to national government/local government?
National CCAP
Local GovernmentAction Plans
CCAP: Climate Change Action Plan
Climate Change Science
Why Climate Change happens?
1. No greenhouse gas (GHG) effect…
2. Because ofGHG effect
3. More GHG effect…
14oC above 14oC-19oC
7
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM Figure SPM.6 | Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on three large-scale indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean: change in continental land surface air temperatures (yellow panels), Arctic and Antarctic September sea ice extent (white panels), and upper ocean heat content in the major ocean basins (blue panels).
9
IPCC AR4WG1 Figure 7.3. The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main annual fluxes in GtC yr–1: pre-industrial ‘natural’ fluxes in black and ‘anthropogenic’ fluxes in red (modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004).
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Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multimodel results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with colouredlines and decadal means (dots).
11
IPCC AR5 SYT Figure SPM.11 | Global greenhouse gas emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) in baseline and mitigation scenarios for different long-term concentration levels (a)
Climate Change Mitigation Modeling
- Case of Japan -
13
What is AIM? – start project since 1989 -■ Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a family of analytical models which are
developed by research institutes in Japan. AIM contributes IPCC reports, discussion on climate change mitigation actions in Japan and Asian countries.
■ AIM can be regarded as “researchers network”, because AIM is developed and applied through collaboration with researchers in various countries.
Example of AIM’s structure and output
Model Researchers Network
21th AIM International Workshop
http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/aim_workshop/aimws_15/aimws_15.html
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Key tools of AIM
Quantification of LCS scenarios
Extended Snapshot tool (ExSS)
AIM/CGE AIM/Enduse
Models/toolsAn integrating tool of future economic, industrial, social and energy visions with mitigating options
Engineering and financial analysis
Designing LCS visions
A tool for keeping macro-economic consistency among supply, demand and resource constraints and for estimating macro-economic impacts of taking actions
A tool for estimating technology deployment, consequent energy consumption, and their impacts on GHG emission.
LCS tools
LC development actions and roadmap
Tools for connecting models outputs with LCS actions making process logically, and support designing, managing the progresses of actions
Logical design
Based on T. Masui (2017, AIM Training WS)
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Basic Methodology
1. Data collection
2. Model simulation
3. Contribution to CCAP
Info
rmat
ion
shar
ing
and
exch
angi
ng w
ith H
CM
C
Macro data• Population/household• GDP growth• Economic development• Transport• Others
Energy and technology data
• Energy efficiency• Technology status• Emission factor
Project data of CCAP
• Implementation of mitigation measures
• Diffusion rate of technology
AIM/ExSS AIM/Book-keeping
Energy related GHG emissions
Non-energy related GHG emissions
Non-energy related GHG emissions
reduction
Technical report• Socio-economic activity• Energy demand• GHG emissions• GHG emissions reduction
Climate Change Action Plan
Energy related GHG emissions
reduction
17Research project on Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios developmentFY2004-2008 sponsored by Ministry of the Environment, Japan
Japan LCS research project
18
Depicting socio-
economic visions in 2050
Estimating energy service
demands
Exploring innovations for energy
demands and energy
supplies
Quantifying energy
demand and supplyto estimate
CO2emissions
Checking potentials for energy
supply
Achieving energy-related CO2
emissions target
Step4
Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
Step1
Step2
Step3
Step5
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Vision A Vision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-orientedUrban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle
Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth
As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but
likely future societies
Akemi Imagawa
20
High efficiency lighting
【eg LED lighting】
Photovoltaic
Monitoring systemequipped with appliances
Eco-life education
Reduce 60% warmingenergy demand,share 100%
34-69MW(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV
COP (coefficients of performance=8), share 100%
Super high efficiency air conditioner
Solar heatingDiffusion rate: 20-60%
(currently 8%)
Heat-pump heatingCOP=5share 30-70%
Fuel cellshare 0-20%
High-insulation
Reduce 1/2 energy demandShare 100%
Stand-by energy reduction
Reduce 1/3 energydemand, share 100%
LCS house in 2050Comfortable and
energy-saving house
rooftop gardening
5
Utilizing solar power
High efficiency appliances reduce energy demand and
support comfortable and safe lifestyle
Good information foreconomy and environmentmakes people’s behavior
low-carbon
10-20% energy demand reduction
Direct DC network
21
17
10
23
9
3 43 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2050A 2050B
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
toe)
Change of the numberof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of energydemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption
Gas consumption
Oil consumption
Energy consumption in2000
Residential sector Energy demand reduction potential: 50%
Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
Energy Efficiency
Insulation system
Japan LCS research project
Japanese target: 25% cut by 2020and 80% cut by 2050
Local LCS roadmap developmentfor Shiga, Kyoto and Tsukuba
International LCS research networkJapan-UK -> LCS-RNet
Discussion by Central Environment Council Roadmap Subcommittee (FY 2010)
Committee of Ministers Task Force Meeting on Global Warming (October 2009 -)
Re-estimation based on results of study by National Institute for Environmental Studies
AIM Project Team (March 26, 2010)
Prediction of measures introduced
Japan Economy ModelJapan Economy Model
Presented as a springboard for
discussion
Results of study
Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models
Global Warming Mitigation 2050 Project (FY 2004 - 2008) Asian Low-Carbon Society Project (2009 - 2013)
Council on Medium and Long-Term Roadmap for Global Warming Measures (FY 2009)
• Central Environment Council Roadmap Subcommittee interviews
• National dialogue
• Public comment, etc.Opinions regarding estimates
Draft proposal by Environment Minister
- 25 % as compared to1990 levels
Japan Economy Model
Japan Economy Model
Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models
Japan Economy Model
Re-estimation based on results of study by National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM Project Team (October 15, 2010) (December 21,
2010)
Japan Economy Model
Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models
Japan Economy Model
Results of study
ケース設定
Full meeting
Home and Building Working Group
Automobile Working Group
Urban Planning Working Group
Rural Community Sub Working Group
Energy Supply Working Group
Consultation of new growth strategy, basic energy plan and other government plans relating to global warming measures
- Macro-frame Working Group
- Manufacturing Working Group
- Home and Building Working Group
- Automobile Working Group
- Urban Planning Working Group
- Land Use and Transportation Sub Working Group
- District and Block Sub Working Group- Rural Community Sub Working Group
- Energy Supply Working Group
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Relationship of Model Analyses in Medium and Long-Term Roadmap Study
Re-estimation
(July 29, 2010)
[Technology]
[Society / Economy]
[People]
24
Industry Commercial Residential Transport
Greenhouse Gases Energy Supply
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1424
Agriculture
Volume of greenhouse gas emissions(100 million tons of CO2 in 2007)
Local development(Rural communities)
Daily life
CO2 originating from power generation
Before shift
CO2 originating from power generation
After shift ManufacturingIndustry + industry processes + F gases
Residences and buildings
Homes + buildings Railways / marine / air
Transportation
Forest sinks, etc.
Automobiles
Energy supply
(indirect emissions)
(direct emissions)
Analysis by AIM/Enduse in Japan
25
359
413387
369
328309 298
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Fixe
d
Low
Med
ium
Hig
h
'90 '05 '10 2030
Fina
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
illio
n k
L of
Oil
Equ
ival
ent)
・EV/HV: 70 to 90% of new car sales・About 40% improvement of freight vehicle
efficiency・Eco-driving in practice : 15 to 40%(passenger),
25 to 55%(freight)
Transport
・Ensure all newly built homes and buildings use advanced insulation and energy saving designs/features
・High-efficiency water heater: 75 to 90% in households, 40 to 90% in commercial building
・Home/Building energy management system・PV power: 28 Mil. kW in households, 38 to 73
Mil. kW in commercial building
Commerci
al
Residential
・Commercialization and popularization of best-available-technology
・Fuel conversion to natural gases
Industry
Final energy consumption in 2030 (low growth case)
Case in Japan
26
-35 -42 -49-34 -41 -49
58 78 97
-100
-50
0
50
100
▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
Cost
(tril
lion
yen)
Additional Investment(‘11-’20 cumulative)
Energy Reduction Costs(‘11-’20 cumulative)
Energy Reduction Costs(‘21-’30 cumulative)
Total investment required
Gains from energy saving
■AIM/Enduse can also provide cost analysis of mitigation actions.■Necessary investment for mitigation actions, priority for investments, and benefits of
energy saving (reduction in energy cost) can be provided.
Abatement Cost Curve Investment & Gains
Enduse/CGE Application
Based on Report on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap
Case in Japan
27
Policy Recommendation■ AIM/Enduse can be utilized to analyze abatement cost for countermeasure
technologies. ■ Users can extract insight on policy recommendation (shown in colored square in
the figure below) based on Enduse analysis.
Abat
emen
t Cos
ts(Y
en/k
tCO
2)
Based on Report on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,0000 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000
Measures (Type A)
Negative abatement costs.
Economically feasilbe
Measures (Type B)
Abatement costs are under certain
level
Measures (Type C)
High cost measures. Requires appropriate
policy measures
GHG reduction(ktCO2eq)
Regulation on technology selection
Carbon pricing
Measures for providing information such as energy efficiency
Enhancement of technology development
Case in Japan
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KEY CONCEPTFOR RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTOR
Diffusion of ZEB and ZEH Collaboration among central and local governments Labeling to encourage smart and rational choice
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Image of Zero Emission House(「LCCO2配慮建築物小委員会」資料、国交省)
Sunchinecut by Tree
SolarPanel
Natural airventilation
Heat absorber
space
“CASBEE” building labeling system in Japan
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Roadmap for residential and commercial sector
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Environmental performance criteria 1999
standard
Improving environmental performance
Recommended standard
Zero emission standard
Obligatinginformation provision
Building environmental performance labeling system
New buildings:Mandatory
Mandatory when signing tenant contract
Existing buildings:Mandatory when selling
Mandatory obligation to comply with energy saving standard
Introducing regulations
Residential“top-runner” system
ObjectivesRo
adm
ap
”Top runner”appliance
Appliance “top-runner” system (Continuous revision of criteria)
New buildings:mandatory standard100%
New buildings:Zero emission: 100%
Zero emissionStock: 100%
GHG
emiss
ions
per
cap
ita
High CarbonLocked in Society
Low Carbon Locked in Society
Development of Asia LCS Scenarios
Policy Packages for Asia LCS
Low Carbon SocietyBackcasting
Leapfrog-Development
How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?
High Carbon Locked-in type Development
Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System
Time
(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting
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National • Thailand• Indonesia• Malaysia• Cambodia• Vietnam
City 【Vietnam】• Ho Chi Minh• Da Nang• Hai Phong【Malaysia】• Putrajaya• Iskandar
AIM activities in Asia
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index_j.html Target RegionsFY2014-FY2016
■ AIM has contributed processes to formulate climate policy in Japan, and the activities are expanded to Asia. AIM has been involved in formulation processes of low carbon policies through collaboration with Asian researchers.
■ Since FY2014, “Asia Low Carbon Society Research (LCSR) Project” which is funded by MoEJ is launched. The project includes not only making low carbon scenarios but also designing practical programs to realize LCS in target regions.
Low Carbon Society Scenariofor Cities
- Case of Hai Phong City -
34
Apply AIM model to cities■ExSS (Extended SnapShot tool) is an integrating tool of future economic,
industrial, social and energy visions with mitigating options. ■Future LCS scenarios in target regions can be developed according to various
socio-economic indicators, degree of taking actions, etc. by utilizing ExSS. Procedures of scenario development are shown below.
Socio-economic indicators
Energy consumptions
GHG emissions
Prepared datafor base year
Assumption for future society and economy
BaU Scenario
AIM/ExSS
Socio-economic indicators
Energy consumptions
GHG emissions
LCS Scenario
List-up of LCS programs
Tentative GHG reduction by each program
AIM/ExSS
Bottom-up estimation
Consistent GHG reduction
by each program
Example of model structure
Energy service demand per driving force Fuel share
Energy efficiency
CO2 emission factor
Output by industry
Commercial building floor
area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Energy service demand
Exogenous variables
Parameters
Endogenous variables
Final energy demand
Energy demand (DPG)
Central power generation (CPG)
Energy demand (CPG)
Primary energy supply
Dispersed power generation (DPG)
CO2 emissions
Energy efficiency (DPG)
Energy efficiency (CPG)
Fuel share (CPG)
Transmission loss (CPG)
Own use (CPG)
Energy end-use device share
Energy end-use device energy
efficiency
Number of household
Information from programs in LCS scenario
Procedures of LCS Scenario Development
Estimation of Input-output table• Regional IOT is estimated by the cross-entropy method.• Necessary information
– IOT for Vietnam (national scale)– Control totals (Gross output) by industry– Value added by industry and Final demand (Consumption, Investment, Export, Import)
5
IOT for Vietnam 2005– Input coefficient– Final demand share by industry
Macro-economic data for Vietnam 2013– Control totals(Gross outputs)– Value added– Final demand
IOT for Vietnam 2013
Reconciliation by cross-entropy
methodMacro-economic data for cities 2013– Control totals(Gross outputs)– Value added– Final demand
IOT for cities 2013
Reconciliation by cross-entropy
method
Estimation of Energy Balance Table
36
The Energy Balance Table (EBT) of Haiphong in 2013 is estimated based on the available on-site information of Haiphong and EBT of the whole Vietnam in 2013 (published by IEA), together with the macro-economic information of Haiphong and whole Vietnam.Industry sector Electricity consumption is got from DIC. Energy consumptions are downscaled from national scale (industrial output)
Transport sector Energy consumptions are calculated based on fuel economy and transport volume. Energy consumption from waterway of freight is downscaled from national scale by (transport
volume)
Residential sector Energy consumptions are calculated from electricity consumption and fuel share reported by DIC.
Main sourcesEnergy consumption in Vietnam: IEA (2015) “Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries”Electricity: Department of Industry and Commerce – Hai Phong (DIC)Fuel economy: GEC (2014) “Report for Ho Chi Minh City-Osaka City Cooperation Project for Developing Low Carbon City”Industrial output: Haiphong Statistical Yearbook, Vietnam Statistical YearbookValue added: Haiphong Statistical Yearbook, Vietnam Statistical Yearbook
Commercial sector Electricity consumption is got from DIC. Energy consumptions except for electricity are downscaled from national scale by value added.
Socioeconomic indicatorUnit 2013 2030 2030/2013
Population persons 1,925,217 3,000,000 1.56
No. of households households 553,406 1,000,000 1.81
GDP per capita mil. Dongs 55 193 3.51
GDP bil. Dongs 105,651 577,829 5.47
Outputs bil. Dongs 282,310 1,595,478 5.65
Final consumption bil. Dongs 67,644 369,309 5.46
Gross fixed capital formation bil. Dongs 38,607 210,777 5.46
Export bil. Dongs 111,247 607,360 5.46
Import bil. Dongs 111,847 609,616 5.45
Result: Hai phong energy demand
38
39
Industry Commercial Residential PassengerTransport
FreightTransport
Total(ktCO2eq)
Action 1. Green IndustryPromotion of energy efficient equipment and fuel shift 1,477 1,477
Action 2. Green BuildingDiffusion of low-energy building (EMS, Insulation, Fuel shift) 199 63 262
Action 3. Energy EfficiencyPromotion of energy efficient device/appliance 130 233 363
Action 4. Clean TransportEnergy efficient vehicle and modal shift 284 2,257 2,541
Total (ktCO2eq) 1,477 329 296 284 2,257 4,643
40
Project SectorEmission reduction(ktCO2eq)
1 Green Industry 1-01 Energy savings in factory Industry 601.9
1-02 Installation high energy efficiency facilities (such as compressors and motors) Industry 93.4
1-03 Regional energy supply system Industry 514.8
1-04 Improvement of kiln and furnace technology Industry 266.6
Total 1,476.8
2 Green Building 2-01 Installation of insulated glasses to commetcial buildings Commercial 19.5
2-02 Installation of insulated glasses to households Residential 35.5
2-03 Introduction of incentive to low energy buildings Commercial 3.5
2-04 Introduction of insulating material to houses Residential 13.4
2-05 Energy efficiency technology applied to buildings Commercial 9.7
2-06 Introduction of solar water heater to commercial buildings Commercial 44.5
2-07 Introduction of solar water heater to households Residential 102.4
2-08 Introduction of photovoltaic power generation to commercial buildings Commercial 29.2
2-09 Introduction of photovoltaic power generation to households Residential 4.2
Total 262.0
3 Energy Efficiency 3-01 Energy savings in commercial facilities Commercial 35.4
3-02 Coversion of street lights to LED lighting Commercial 3.2
3 03 High efficienc lighting in commercial b ildings Commercial 43 0
Action
41
GHG emission and reduction
6.7
33.5
28.9
14%
42
Policy dialogue in COP22
Researcher: Dr. Lam (ISPONRE) Policymaker: Dr. Ka, Ms. Huong (DONRE)
Partners
Official side event at COP22
Hai Phong
How to utilize Low Carbon Society Scenario- Case of Iskandar Malaysia -
Iskandar Malaysia Vision“Strong and Sustainable
Metropolis of International Standing”
JB CITY CENTRE
NUSAJAYA
WESTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT
EASTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT
SENAI-SKUDAI
At the heart of South East Asia and within minutes from Singapore
Strategically located at the cross roads of East-West trade lanes
Midway between the growing economy of China and India
LCS scenario research(Low Carbon Society)
by SATREPS (JST/JICA)scheme
+
Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025
Action Names1 Integrated Green Transportation2 Green Industry3 Low Carbon Urban Governance 4 Green Buildings & Construction
5 Green Energy System & Renewable Energy
6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
7 Community Engagement & Consensus Building
8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design
9 Smart Growth
10 Green and Blue Infrastructure & Rural Resources
11 Sustainable Waste Management
12 Clean Air Environment
12 action, 281 program
Premier of Malaysia provided permission in the 13th IRDA Steering Committee to start the Iskandar Low Carbon Society planning(December 11th, 2012)
Science to Action (Theory and Practice)
Japanese experience on Low Carbon Scenarios & Roadmaps
+ Malaysian challenge on
Implementation of Low Carbon Visions
SATREPS 46
ISKANDAR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (IRDA)
COP 18, Doha
COP 19, Warsaw
COP 20,Lima
MOA, 2012
MOA, 2013
COP 21, Paris
MOA,2015
AIC, 2016
Local & International Launches
COP 22, Marrakech
ISKANDAR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (IRDA)
* Preliminary Study: Brochure Low Carbon City 2025 Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia
*Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025 - Summary for Policymakers
*A Roadmap towards Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia 2025*Iskandar Malaysia: Action for a Low Carbon Future
*Low Carbon Society Brochures for 5 Local Authorities
*Low Carbon Society Action Plan 2025 for 5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia (Johor Bahru, Johor Bahru Tengah, Pasir Gudang, Kulai & Pontian)
*Iskandar Malaysia Green House Gas Inventory 2015
2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Low Carbon Publications
ISKANDAR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (IRDA)
• To create awareness of Low Carbon Society (LCS) among students, teachers and their families in achieving the target of carbon reduction by 2025.
• Collaboration IRDA, JPNJ, UTM, MIM and Japan (Kyoto City)
• 231 primary schools and 28,000 year 6 student
• Recorded 290,219.3 KgCO2eq.
AIMS:• to establish long-term partnerships between
stakeholders. An umbrella platform to implement marine and coastal initiatives;
• to encourage proactive management of coastal resources involving technical government agencies, researchers, NGOs, the private sector;
• To empower local champions as the main beneficiary of the PESISIR programme.
• In 2016, CASBEE Iskandar Manuals (for Urban, City and Building) pilots have been completed and adopted by IRDA
• Globally launched at COP22 Marrakech, 9 Nov 2016
• Next step: Establish CASBEE Iskandar Centre (CIC) in order to further promote, implement and manage the CASBEE Iskandar development.
Low Carbon Society Projects 2016
Why Semarang?
51
52
53
54May 15th 2016, Toyama
Speakers: City of Firenze, ItalyCity of Vancouver, CanadaCity of Vitry-le-François, FranceCity of Bristol, United Kingdom100RC, GEF, ICLEI, Promotion Committee for the “Future City” Initiative
Co-chairs: Mr. Masashi Mori Mayor, Toyama City, Japan Prof. Hironori Hamanaka Chair, Board of Directors, IGES
G7 Toyama Environment Ministers’ Meeting Parallel Session
The Role of Cities May 15, 2016, Toyama, Japan
55
The Role of Cities –Key Messages from G7 Toyama Environment Ministers' Meeting Parallel Session
Wednesday 13 July, ISAP2016, Pacifico Yokohama
City of Frankfurt am Main, GermanyCity of Higashimatsushima, JapanCity of Kitakyushu, JapanCity of Toyama, Japan
Press release on 15 May
Bristol
This is the first time for group of Mayors directlyto brief to G7 Environmental Ministers’ Meeting.
Morning session, 16 Maybrief to Ministers
Frankfurtam Main
ToyamaIGES MoEJ Firenze
100RCGEFVancouverHigashi
matsushimaVitry-le-FrancoisICLEI
KitakyushuFutureCityInitiative
56
MOEJ JCM FS survey study to introduce low-carbon technologies in Semarang
by cooperation between Toyama and Semarangduring FY 2017 (Sep 2017-Feb 2018)
1. Transportation: 1) Introducing high-efficiency operation system to the existing BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), 2) CNG retrofit of diesel fueled bus of the existing BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), 3) pre-survey of LRT in Semarang
2. Renewable energy: Installation of 1) mini-hydro power plant, 2) PV power plant, 3) biomass power plant in university of Semarang
3. Energy saving: installation of 1) high-efficiency chiller, 2) cogeneration to reduce electricity purchase from grid and fossil fuel consumption for steam 3) high-efficiency natural gas boiler, in factories in Semarang
57MOEJ: Ministry of the Environment Japan, JCM: Joint Crediting Mechanism, FS: Feasibility Study
58
Toyama supports low-carbon technology implementation in Semarangwith PCKK and IGES, covered by Toyama local newspapers on 8th Aug, 2017
PCKK: Pacific-ConsultantIGES: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
A. Improvement of operation efficiency of existing BRT Effect of project Ripple effect
Introduction cost:75 million yen
Reduction effect:568 yen/tLegal durable years:5 years
<Operation improvement plan (Draft)>①Introduction of IC cards②Separation and remodeling of doors for entrance and exit③Bus location system④Introduction of information provision service(Information delivery for cell phones, installation of display at bus stops)
Overview of the study(Transportation)
①Expansion to other routes・Improve operation efficiency at
Koridor Ⅱ~Ⅳ and promote modalshift in two years・At the same introduction scale as
Koridor 1
②Expansion to other lines・ Improve operation efficiency at
Koridor Ⅴ~Ⅷ and promote modal shift in five years・At the same introduction scale asKoridor 1
B. Conversion of existing BRT to CNG fuel bus Effect of project Ripple effect
・Remodeling existing BRT(diesel fuel) to CNG bus, aiming to reduce gas emission by conversion from diesel fuel to CNG fuel
<Targeted routes・vehicles>・Koridor Ⅰ~Ⅳ
Number of operated buses:75(Remodel 75 units to CNG buses)
<Accompanied plan>Construction of CNG stations
Introduction cost:1.06 billion yen
Reduction effect:5,731 yen/tLegal durable years:5 years
・Increasing frequency from 10 minutes to 5 minutes during 7-9 am and 4-6pm by improving BRT’s operation efficiency・Promoting modal shift from private vehicles and motorbikes
<Targeted routes・basic information>・Koridor 1 (Mangkang - Penggaron)・Number of operated buses:20・Number of passengers:2,264,832/year (2013)
Applied technologies for the projects
Terminal Cangkiran
v
Terminal Mangkang
Bandara A Yani
vv
SMA 5 Balaikota
SimpangLima
SidodadiDr.Cipto
Sedes
Terminal Penggaron
Ksatrian
PDAM Jatingaleh
Bukitsari
TembalangSrondol
Ada Setiabudi
Sukun
Banyumanik
Gedawang
Pudakpayung
BPKP
Alun alun UngaranTerminal Sisemut
BPKPPudakpayung
Ada Setiabudi
Srondol
KsatrianPasar Jatingaleh
Ngesrep
Pasar Banyumanik
KODAM
Layur St. Tawang
PelabuhanTanjungEmas
UDINUS
Tugumuda
U
TB
STerminal Terboyo
JARINGAN PELAYANAN BRT TRANS SEMARANG KORIDOR I,II,III DAN IV
Mangkang
Penggaron
Bus location serviceCurrent door (one in the middle)
Introduction of IC cards
・Continuing support for LRT completion as integrated sustainable transportation system that Semarang has been aspiring, and boosting Semarang’s input for transportation plan, utilizing Toyama City’s knowledge on “Establishment of compact city focused on public transportation” and modal shift to public transportation
【Future project】 Switching from BRT to LRT
CNG station(Natural gas eco station Toyama Kurose)
計画路線・Conversion of BRT routes(Koridor I (Mangkang - Penggaron))to LRT Introduction cost:5.49billion yen(2-car train×24) Reduction effect:3,571 yen/t
Expansion to other lines ・Conversion to CNG bus in KoridorⅤ~Ⅷ
・Number of Annual number and distance of BRT replaced by CNG:8,558,155 cars, km/year
CNG bus
②Biomass gas power generation/boiler(300kW)
Overview of the study (Renewable energy)
Diponegoro University
Semarang city
Scraps fromfurniture factory Direct burning biomass plant(4MW)
③Solar power on Dam surface(total 1.4MW※)
Driftwoods(Collection at dam )
Thinning riparian Forest for watershed
management
PV panels at factories of Japanese companies (for roof)
Introduction of open channel water turbine to
agricultural dam①-2Jatibaran dam1MW water power
Babon Dam for educatioin
①-1Babon Small hydro power/
dam for education(50kW)
Applied technologies②Biomass power
Generation/boiler
Applied technologies①
Small hydroPower generation
Applied technologies③
PV powergeneration
Expanding the package to new dams
(biomass+small hydro+solar power)
Ripple effect
University campus University hospital
Electricity
・Introduction of Francis turbine (operation range is wide)respond
to fluctuations in flow・Introduction to dam for education of universitypromote training of
enginieers and technology transfer
Future development and resolution of regional problems【Effects in reducing CO2 emission
①Water power:2,900yen/t(initiation cost 0.45 billion yen annual reduction 3,527t-CO2 )②Biomass power:3,153yen/t(initiation cost 0.13 billion yen, annual reduction1,395t-CO2 )③solar power:3,793 yen/t(initiation cost 0.14 billion yen, annual reduction 1,086t-CO2 )※Ripple effect is excluded from consideration
·Utilize hydro electric power generation know-how in Toyama prefecture which is steep topography similar to Semarang city.·Flow fluctuation can be accommodated by the installation and quantity control of the francisturbine which is wide range of operation. ·Driving considering river management, such as environmental release (flash discharge and so on).
biomass
Heat
Contribution to water management and waste utilization by using driftwoods and riparian forest for biomass power generation
Having independent power supply, it can be used as a disaster center base in the event of a disaster
※Combination use of educational dam surface and unused ground in the university :1.4 MW
Co-benefit by applied techniques①Know-how to manage rivers and water quality by adjusting the amount of flow②Flood control through watershed management like driftwoods control at dams or rivers③Dam development method for flood control and energy base④Strengthening disaster measures with the introduction of independent power supply
Applied techniques①Small hydro power:Introduction of dam for education in universitypromote training of technicians and technique transfer②Biomass power:Resolving problems by water management (driftwoods) and utilization of unused resources③Solar power:Efficient use of dam surface
Realization of resilient city by introduction of renewable energy in problem solving type
Wood scraps
Efforts for creation of recycling society
Food waste Biomass power plant/boiler
Applied technologies for the projects
C. Conversion from boiler (kerosene / heavy oil) to high efficiency boiler (gas)
Effect of project
Convert boilers (kerosene / heavy oil) to high-efficiency gas boilers (system 100%) for factories such as somefactories in the BSB industrial park
Steam・Hot water:1500kg/h×6 unitIntroduction cost:90 million yenReduction effect:2,613 yen/tLegal durable years:15 years(Ex:Compact once-through boiler, MIURA CO.,LTD )
Overview of the study(Energy Efficiency)
A. Improvement of air conditioning efficiency Effect of project
Survey following improvement effects targeting facilities of central cooling opportunities:1) Higher efficiency by central cooling 2) Introduction of Inverter to individual air
conditioning in factories
COP:5.0 → COP7.0Cooling capacity:4,400kWIntroduction cost:150 million yenReduction effect:3,650 yen/tLegal durable years:15 years
B. Introduction of gas cogeneration (CHP) Effect of project
Reduce CO2 emission using both electricitysupplied from coal-fired power plants andthe heat used in factories to be converted to electricity1) gas engine and gas turbine2) Fuel cell (to be provided based on needs)
Output Power:500kWSteam・Hot water:33m3/hIntroduction cost:150 million yenReduction effect:2,969 yen/tLegal durable years:15 years(Ex:Cogeneration facility introduced in Toyama)
(Ex:High efficiency centrifugal refrigerating machine EBARA)
・ Information arrangement on candidate facilities to introduce energy-saving equipmentincluding data collection of electricity demand, thermal demand amount, and gas component data of Semarang city
① Collection of Basic Information and Adjustment with related organizations
・ Collect data of demand for power and heat at candidate facilities to introduce energy-saving equipment by a walkthrough survey
・ Explain purpose, scheme and effect of energy saving by renovation of the equipment
② Selection of target facility and grasp of its actual use of energy
・Diagnose facility operation status, usage status of fuel and of facility for air conditioning, and available amount of waste heat etc.・Optimize steam pressure, reduce pressure vessel inspection cost such as primary headers and flash tanks
③ Implementation of energy saving diagnosis
< Ripple effect >
④ Equipment Introduction Project (Renovation for energy savings focusing on conversion to gas)
①Building of ESCO scheme from energy saving diagnosis
Input of model projects including energy saving renovation as well as human resource developmentby energy saving diagnosis
Confirmation of content for energy saving renovation
②Conversion of energy usage structureExpect to spread to industrial parks and
commercial facilities as a development with extension of gas pipelines<Expected facilities>・Industrial parks (e.g. BSB Industrial Estate )・Large scale commercial complex buildings・Hotels
Realization of resilient city by building ESCO scheme, improving energy efficiency
and structural change of energy usage
Energy saving diagnosis
Collection of Basic Information (Actual energy use)
Deterioration diagnosisProposal for high
efficiency and operational improvement
Confirmation of content for project
Renovation for deterioration and higher efficiency
Instruction to operation
Energy-savingCO2 reduction
Applied technologies for the projects
Why Semarang?• 1st 100RC in Indonesia• Good collaboration between Research (DIP) and Local
Government (City of Semarang)• Necessary to tackle with climate change impact by
adaptation and mitigation to design better infrastructure• Challenge to synergize City Resilient Policy and Climate
Change Action Plan in line with SDGs• Model can assess integrity of actions
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Ready to Challenge!
63
Policy dialogue in COP22
Researcher: Dr. Lam (ISPONRE) Policymaker: Dr. Ka, Ms. Huong (DONRE)
Partners
Official side event at COP22
Hai Phong
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Policy dialogue in COP23
Researcher: Dr. Maryono (DIP) Policymaker: Mr. Farchan, Mr. Luthfi (Bappeda)
Partners
Official side event at COP23
Semarang
Semarang
Logo of Bappeda &Diponegoro Univ.
Results in Semarang Speakers from Semarang???
65http://www.local-renewables-conference.org/home/
66http://www.local-renewables-conference.org/home/
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http://www.local-renewables-conference.org/home/
https://www.japanfs.org/en/files/sustanable_zone02_en.jpg
Prof. Kurasaka, Chiba Univ
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https://www.japanfs.org/ja/news/archives/news_id035638.html
地域経済循環のイメージ Concept of local economic circulation
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https://www.japanfs.org/ja/news/archives/news_id035638.html
水俣市における地域経済循環の概要 Overview of local economic circulation in Minamata city
<21 NATIONAL STRATEGIC PROJECTS FOR REVIVAL OF JAPAN FOR THE 21ST CENTURY>
Growth Driven by Japan’s Strengths
I. National Strategic Projects Related to “green innovation”
2. “FutureCity” Initiative
We will work to create a “FutureCity,” which will realize world-leading successful cases through future-oriented technologies, schemes and services and diffuse these achievements nationwide as well as overseas. Specifically, in line with the policy of creating “towns endowed with nature and human warmth” that are appealing both at home and aboard, and fully taking into consideration “profitability and ripple effect on other cities,” we will implement relevant measures intensively in strategic cities and regions carefully selected from among eco-model cities. Such measures include establishing a city energy management system which consists of a combination of smart grids, renewable energies, and next-generation vehicles, carrying out business restructuring and fostering related industries, and promoting the comprehensive use of renewable energies.
To put these measures into action, a new law will be enacted (tentatively called the Act on FutureCity Promotion). The relevant ministries and agencies will concentrate budget funds related to the next-generation social system and equipment subsidies, and provide thorough support for this initiative, including regulatory reforms as well as tax system reforms (e.g. green tax system). Furthermore, we will proceed with government-level partnerships with Asian countries for exporting the entire city design as a package.
2
The New Growth Strategy–Blueprint for Revitalizing Japan-(June 18, 2010, Cabinet Decision)
(excerpt)
・ To create unparalleled successful cases through future-oriented technologies, socio-economic systems, services, business models and city planning in strategically selected cities and regions.
• To disseminate successful cases both within and outside Japan, and enlarge market and employment.
• Relevant ministries and agencies will support its promotion by concentrating their budget funds, implementing regulatory reforms and tax system reforms, etc.
Realize regional revitalization and sustainable socio-economic system in JAPAN
Purpose of “FutureCity” Initiative
“FutureCity”
DisseminateSuccessful Cases
Best Practices(domestic and overseas)
Technology
Socio-economic system
Service
Business models
City planning
Human resources
Goods
Capital
Regulatory reforms
Concentrate
etc…
ImproveQuality
of Life
etc… 3
Platforms
Platforms
timelineconcept Successful
Case ASuccessful
Case B
Successful Case A’
Successful Case C
Successful Case D
Global network
Domestic network
Collaboration with domestic and global networks
inputoutput
Image of the Dissemination of Successful Cases
4
・ Reached peak of 130 million in 2004・ Decrease to approx. 95 million by 2050
・ Aging rate (over 65) : approx. 23% (2009)40% (2050)
・ Unprecedented super-aging society
・ Create low-carbon society to achieve the mid-and long-term goal (reduce 25% by 2020, 80% by 2050)
・ Create energy cycle to ensure energy security
Challenges
・Environmental and energy technology・Urban management (security, disaster prevention,
etc.)・Unique history, tradition, culture, etc.
Overseas Situation・ Sweden exports know-how and technology of city
improvement in a package・ China and UAE rapidly developed new type of cities
centered on new technologies on environment and energy management
・ In Asia, mega-cities are emerging where millions of people live.
Energy saving technologies are the advantages of JAPAN.
・ Super-aging will soon be acute in Asia.Aging rate in China will be over 30% by 2050.
Comparative Advantages of JAPAN
・ International networks of cities such as ICLEI(Local Governments for Sustainability)will be activated.
Management of cities and regions to offer healthy, safe and full life to the residents including elderly.
① Declining Population and Birthrate
② Super-aging
③ Environment and Energy
Management of cities and regions to tackle declining population.
Enhancement of the role of cities and regions
Present Situation of Cities and Regions in JAPAN
Big market will be emerged.
5
1. Realize the city where “everybody wants to live ” and “everybody has vitality”2. Create a sustainable socio-economic system which can achieve self-sustained development3. Restore social solidarity4. Improve the quality of life of the residents
The cities where “everybody wants to live” and “everybody has vitality” are those that continue creating environmental, social and economic values through projects for the improvement of “the bases of life”
Creates Environmental Value
Create Economic Value・Stable employment and income・More urbanization・New business・Knowledge society・Tourism etc.
・Education・Medical care and nursing・Energy・ICT・Mobility・House, buildings
“Bases of life”
Successful cases are the sources for new values
Enhance governance for city management
Creates Social Value
Promote under strong International collaboration
Basic Concept of “FutureCity” Initiative- Cities which create new values by tackling environmental issues and super-aging -
- low carbon - waste management- water and atmosphere- biodiversity
-Healthcare-Local medical services-Nursing-Security - Culture-Social solidarity -Social capital
etc.
etc.
etc.
6
Systems to induce private funding
Project Images on the Improvement of the “bases of life”
・Build zero-emission houses and buildings through increased use of renewable energy, installation of efficient equipment and improved heat insulation・Introduce new generation vehicles on a large scale・Energy management utilizing ICT (smart grid, BEMS, HEMS, etc.) ・Convert into compact city・Improve public transportation
・Build high quality barrier free houses with improved thermal insulation・Use ICT to improve lifestyle・Research and improve personal mobility for elderly・medical and nurse care robot・Introduce new services such as medical examination and treatment for the visitors from overseas.
・Connect research results to regional revitalization by creating venture business or promoting public-private partnership under the international cooperation・Develop tourist sites and environment conducive to foreign student to attract visitors from overseas・Undertake regulatory and systems reform
etc. etc. etc.
Environment Super-aging Others
Promote integration to improve the “bases of life”
7
Super agingEnvironment × Internationalization× × ・・・・・・
Integrate Key Elements
Original Design
・ Geographical characteristicse.g. mega-cities, medium-sized cities, rural, snow-covered, coastal, re-developed areas
・ Core competencee.g. technology, food, forest, children etc.
e.g.- low-carbon- waste management- biodiversity
Future Vision of Cities and Regions
• Cities and regions will identify their own future vision to realize the basic concept of the “FutureCity” Initiative.
• Important points to draw the future vision are;- to take advantage of diversity and originality.- to maximize synergy of the environmental, social and economic values.- to use domestic and overseas networks among cities and regions.
e.g.- healthcare- nursing- social capital
8
9
・ Main implementer (Consortium)・ Project manager・ Clarification of the purpose and
action plan
Do・Implement the project to apply to
socio-economical system・Enhance international collaboration
among cities・Diffuse good practices
・Evaluate environmental, social and economic values (need integrated evaluation method) Plan
Evaluate
・Selection of “FutureCity”・Clarification of vision and
concept of each “FutureCity”
Reflect EvaluationRe-planning
ImproveDisseminate
Re-evaluate
Sharing human resources, information and knowledge openly among
domestic and overseas cities and regions.
Bring in know-how from all over the world and
Establish a model of self-sustained development without subsidies
Project Management (Flexibility and a Sense of Speed)
・Government (include advisory board)
・Promoting bodies
Consortium- Local Government- Private Sector- residents: NGOs, NPOs, Individuals-Academia: Universities, Research institutes
Main implementers
・Selection・Clarification of the vision etc.
① Overall “FutureCity” Initiative levelPerspective to effectively promote the overall “FutureCity” initiative
② Each City LevelPerspective from the management of whole actions at each “FutureCity”
③ Each Action LevelPerspective from progress management of the project applications to socio-economic system and the enhancement of international collaboration
3 Levels of the managementSelection of FutureCities
Platform for international knowledge(Stage for the fusion of domestic and overseas best practice)
Domestic and overseascities and regions
(include domestic and overseas)
<National Level>
< City/Region Level>
Use domestic and overseas networks of cities and regions
Project Management and Main Implementers
・Planning (goal, action plan, roadmap, etc.)・Prepare implementing structure・Implement action plan to apply to
socio-economic system・Enhance international collaboration・Diffuse good practices・Build consensus among residents ・Undertake regulatory and systems
reform・Evaluate progress and review
etc.
Actions in each city Intensive support
10
Consulting, Advice
Plan and follow-up
National Government (include
advisory board)
Consortium(local government, private sector,
residents, academea)
Budget
manage
implement evaluate
Domestic and overseas
networks
Private funds
Plan and follow-up
National Government (include
advisory board)
Promoting Bodies
Consortium(local government, private sector,
residents, academea)BudgetCollaboration, Regulatory and systems reform fund
Consulting, Advice
Plan and follow-up
Private fund
manage
Tentative Framework
Private funds
Full-fledged Framework
Promoting Bodies
Domestic and
overseas networks
Organizational Framework for Promotion
Domestic and overseas
networks
Domestic and overseas
networks
implement evaluate
Domestic and
overseas networks
11
Aug.Jul. FY2012Sep.FY2011
Oct Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb Mar.
Sep. 01
Sep. 30 Dec.22
Planning of the selected cities
International ForumFeb. 21
Selection Process
Application
Selection
Making the selection standard
Oct. 25
Implementation of projects
Proposer Title
ShimokawaTown, Hokkaido
Shimokawa, Forest Future City with people shining
Kashiwa City, Chiba and Others
Kashiwanoha campus city project "Autonomous urban management with pertnership among public, private and academia"
City of Yokohama, Kanagawa
OPEN YOKOHAMA -Creative Port City where People, Things and Events Connect and Develop-
City of Toyama, Toyama
Construction of Toyama style urban management with compact city strategy -Towards sustainable and value creating city filled with social capital-
City of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka
Kitakyushu Future City
Proposer Title
City of Ofunato,City of Rikuzentakata,Town of Sumita, Iwateand Another
Kesen Regional Future City
City ofKamaishi, Iwate
Kamaishi Future City Initiative
City of Iwanuma, Miyagi
Reconstruction with Love and Hope
City of Higashimatsushima,Miyagi
Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake- Renewal of Higashimatsushima, Towards the future together without forgetting that day -
City of Minamisoma,Fukushima
Recycle City connecting to the next generation, Minamisoma
Shinchi Town, Fukushima
"Of cource, Shinchi is the best town" -Town where you can see the future and hope of environment and life-
<not in the disaster area> <in the disaster area>
Schedule
"FtutureCity": Cities selected in 2011
12
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Presentation by Dr. Hiroto Izumi (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister), The 6th International Forum on the “FutureCity” Initiative, 2016 Aug, Yokohamahttp://doc.future-city.jp/pdf/forum/2016_06/01_01_izumi_en.pdf
82
Presentation by Dr. Hiroto Izumi (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister)
83
84
Presentation by Dr. Hiroto Izumi (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister)
How can “Urban Policy” and “Climate Policy” get married happily? by Junichi Fujino (IGES/NIES)
Sep 2015
Dec 2015
G7 Toyama Environment Ministers’ Meeting Parallel Session
“The Role of Cities” on 15th May 2016
Oct 2016
30th Aug 2016
Asia Smart City Conference
18th Nov 2016
Precom 3 for HABITAT III, 27th July 2016, Surabaya
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index_j.html
• By the 2020 CCAP scenario, the GHG emission reduction is 19.1% of total emission of Business as Usual (2020BaU) (including 6.2% reduction is expected from the mitigation of grid power)
HCMC LCS Scenario towards 2020
28
50 41
2
3
2 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2020BaU
2020CCAP
MtC
O2e
q
Solid waste management
Agricultural non-energy-related
Freight transport
Passenger transport
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Agricultural energy-related
Grid power
Non-energy-related GHG emissions
Energy-related GHG emissions
Solid waste management (0.4)
Agricultural non-energy-related (0.1)
Freight transport (1.0)
Passenger transport (0.5)
Residential (3.0)
Commercial (2.9)
Industry (6.1)
Agricultural energy-related (0.005)
Grid power (5.1) 6.2%
(6,246 ktCO2eq)11.9%
This number is currently adopted inHCMC Climate Change Action Plan 2016-2020 toward 2030
Ho Chi Minh CityVietnam
• Collaborative team comprised by UTM (University Technology Malaysia)/TMG (Tokyo Metropolitan Government)/AIM transfers the building monitoring and reporting program which initiated by TMG.
• We works together with Putrajaya Corporation (PJC) and Iskandar Region Development Authority (IRDA).
• Trainings, workshops and intensive discussions many times among both cities’ staffs, TMG’s staffs and experts have been conducted so far.
LCS implementation: Transfer Knowledge from Tokyo to Malaysia
Workshop in Iskandar Malaysia
Training in TMG
Discussion in PJC
Site Visit in Putrajayabuilding
Training in TMG
June 2015 August 2015
LCS scenarios in Asia
IdentifyGHG ReductionPotential andNecessaryActions
TransferImplementation
Know-howTo Asia
CityDiagnosisby Q and L
usingCASBEE
Let’s work togetherwith cities towards
decarbonization (Paris Agreement)
and sustainable
development (SDGs)to achieve
2 degree target!
jfuji55@gmail.com 87