CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY RESEARCHCIRES/University of Colorado at Boulderhttp://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu

The Promise and Pitfalls of Science as Political Authority

Roger A. Pielke, Jr.University of Colorado

Credibility across cultures:expertise, uncertainty and the global politics of scientific advice

6 February 2013University of Sussex

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Conclusions

1. Expert advice confers great authority

2. That authority is seductive to both experts and decision makers

3. Strong institutions are necessary to preserve that authority and the advice that it brings

4. The expert community must show leadership and responsibility

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Scientific advice has deep roots …

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Andreas Georgiou, Hellenic Statistical Authority

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L’Aquila Earthquake Trial of Major Risks Committee

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David Nutt, UK Drugs Advisory Council

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Bush Administration difficulties

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Obama and Plan B Medication

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Red River Floods 1997 - Beware “messages”

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Mayor of E. Grand Forks: “I want one number”

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All politicians have interests

“But understand me correctly; at the end of the day, here in Copenhagen, we have as politicians to make the final decision… I need your assistance to push this process in the right direction, and in that respect, I need fixed targets and certain figures, and not too many considerations on uncertainty and risk and things like that.”

Anders Fogh RasmussenPrime Minister of DenmarkMarch 2009Science meeting in advance ofCopenhagen Climate Conference

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The seductive appeal of the “message”

"That [next IPCC] report is going to scare the wits out of everyone. I'm confident those scientific findings will create new political momentum.'‘

Yvo de BoerFormer head, UN FCCC7 November 2012

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/former-un-official-says-climate-report-will-shock-nations-into-action-20121106-28w5c.html

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Predistortion? US Rep. Bill Foster (D-IA)

Foster said that scientists should expect that the information that they bring to the political process, such as through testimony before congressional committees, will inevitably be "distorted" in the political process.

He then raised what he called "a difficult ethical question" -- if a scientist knows that their message will be distorted in the political process, to what degree should s/he predistort their message in hopes that what comes out the other end is a closer approximation to reality?

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Clarifying choice for effective action

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An Analogy: Where should we have dinner?

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An Analogy: Where should we have dinner?

Four Perspectives on Answering this Question

Pure scientist Science arbiter Issue advocate Honest broker of

policy alternatives

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Science Arbiter

Concierge

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"The notion that scientific advisors can or do limit themselves to addressing purely scientific issues, in particular, seems fundamentally misconceived ... the advisory process seems increasingly important as a locus for negotiating scientific differences that have political weight."

Sheila Jasanoff 1990The Fifth Branch:Science Advisors as Policymakers

Reality Check – Science as a Political Arena

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Issue Advocate

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What is the problem? Legitimacy

“We have learned that the scientist-advocate, on either side of such a debate, is likely to be more advocate than scientist and this has unfavorably altered the public view of both the nature of the scientific endeavor and the personal attributes of scientists.”

Philip Handler 1976

Handler, P., 1976. Science and hope in science: a resource for humankind. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Bicentennial Symposium, vol. 12.

President U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 1969-1981

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Honest Broker of Policy Alternatives

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Honest brokers of policy alternatives

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Conclusions

1. Expert advice confers great authority

2. That authority is seductive to both experts and decision makers

3. Strong institutions are necessary to preserve that authority and the advice that it brings

4. The expert community must show leadership and responsibility

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Thank you!

pielke@colorado.edu Papers etc. can be downloaded from:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu Weblog: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/

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