1

Risk, Return, & the Capital Asset Pricing Model

2

Topics in Chapter

Basic return concepts Basic risk concepts Stand-alone risk Portfolio (market) risk Risk and return: CAPM/SML

Value = + + +FCF1 FCF2 FCF∞

(1 + WACC)1 (1 + WACC)∞

(1 + WACC)2

Free cash flow(FCF)

Market interest rates

Firm’s business riskMarket risk aversion

Firm’s debt/equity mixCost of debt

Cost of equity

Cost of debt

Cost of equity

Weighted averagecost of capital

(WACC)

Net operatingprofit after taxes

Required investmentsin operating capital−

=

Determinants of Intrinsic Value:

The Cost of Equity

...

> Risk, > Return, (both + & -)

Stand – Alone Risk Risk in Portfolio Context b. Market Risk

Quantified by Beta & used in CAPM: Capital Asset Pricing

Model Relationship b/w market risk

& required return as depicted in SML

Req’d return = Risk-free return + Mrkt risk

Prem(Beta) SML: ri = rRF + (RM - rRF )bi

a. Diversifiable

5

What are investment returns?

Investment returns measure financial results of an investment.

Returns may be historical or prospective (anticipated).

Returns can be expressed in: ($) dollar terms. (%) percentage terms.

6

An investment costs $1,000 and is sold after 1 year for $1,100.

Dollar return:

Percentage return:

$ Received - $ Invested $1,100 - $1,000 = $100

$ Return/$ Invested $100/$1,000 = 0.10 = 10%

7

What is investment risk?

Typically, investment returns are not known with certainty.

Investment risk pertains to the probability of earning a return less than expected.

Greater the chance of a return far below the expected return, greater the risk.

Risk & Return

Student Sue Student Bob

Exam 1 70%

Exam 2 80%

X weightX 50%

X wt.X 50%-----------

Final grade = 75 %

Exam 1 x weight 50% x .50

Exam 2 x wt 100% x .50 -------

Final grade = 75 %

9

Probability Distribution: Which stock is riskier? Why?

-30 -15 0 15 30 45 60

Returns (% )

Stock AStock B

WedTech Co

Normal 40% Return 20% = .08 Bad 30% Return 5% = .015 Good 30% Return 35% = .105 =Expected ave return = 20%

WedTech Co

Standard Deviation: Measure of stand-alone risk

Return-Exp Ret = Diff2 x Prob =

Variance: SD:

Standard Deviation and Normal Distributions

1 SD = 68.26% likelihood 2 SD = 95.46% 3 SD = 99.74%

WedTech Co vs. IBM

14

Stand-Alone Risk

Standard deviation measures the stand-alone risk of an investment.

The larger the standard deviation, the higher the probability that returns will be far below the expected return.

WedTech Co & IBM in 2 stock Portfolio

Ave Portfolio Return

Portfolio Standard Deviation

WedTech Co & IBM & adding other stocks to Portfolio

IBM WedTech

Coke Microsoft

Historical Risk vs. Return Return: Hi – Lo Small Co stock Large Co Stock LT Corp Bonds LT Treasuries ST T-Bills

Risk: Hi - Lo

Reward-to-Variabilty Ratio (Sharpe’s)

Portfolio’s average return in excess of risk-free rate divided by standard deviation

Comparing Different Stocks

Coefficient of Variation: = S.D. / Return; or Risk / Return

WalMart vs. Philip Morris 12% Return 12% S.D. = C.V. =

20

Expected Return versus Coefficient of Variation

Security

Expected

ReturnRisk:

Risk:CV

Alta Inds 17.4% 20.0% 1.1

Market 15.0 15.3 1.0Am. Foam 13.8 18.8 1.4T-bills 8.0 0.0 0.0Repo Men 1.7 13.4 7.9

Comparing Different Stocks

Correlation coefficient = r (rho): Measures tendency of 2 variables to

move together. Rho (r) = 1 = perfect + correlation & variables move together in unison.

Does not help with diversification See text figures 6-9 thru 6-11

22

Two-Stock Portfolios Two stocks can be combined to form

a riskless portfolio if = -1.0. Risk is not reduced at all if the two

stocks have = +1.0. In general, stocks have ≈ 0.35, so

risk is lowered but not eliminated. Investors typically hold many stocks. What happens when = 0?

23

Adding Stocks to a Portfolio

What would happen to the risk of an average 1-stock portfolio as more randomly selected stocks were added?

p would decrease because the added stocks would not be perfectly correlated, but the expected portfolio return would remain relatively constant.

24

stock ≈ 35%Many stocks ≈ 20%

-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Returns (% )

1 stock2 stocksMany stocks

2510 20 30 40 2,000 stocks

Company Specific (Diversifiable) Risk

Market Risk

20%

0

Stand-Alone Risk, p

p

35%

Risk vs. Number of Stock in Portfolio

26

Stand-alone risk = Market risk + Diversifiable risk

Market risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.

Firm-specific, or diversifiable, risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.

27

Conclusions As more stocks are added, each new

stock has a smaller risk-reducing impact on the portfolio.

p falls very slowly after about 40 stocks are included. The lower limit for p is about 20% = M .

By forming well-diversified portfolios, investors can eliminate about half the risk of owning a single stock.

28

Can an investor holding one stock earn a return commensurate with its risk?

No. Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios.

They bear only market risk, so prices and returns reflect this lower risk.

The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk, so the return is less than that required by the risk.

29

How is market risk measured for individual securities?

Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio.

It is measured by a stock’s beta coefficient. For stock i, its beta is:

bi = (i,M i) / M

30

How are betas calculated?

In addition to measuring a stock’s contribution of risk to a portfolio, beta also measures the stock’s volatility relative to the market.

31

Using a Regression to Estimate Beta

Run a regression with returns on the stock in question plotted on the Y axis and returns on the market portfolio plotted on the X axis.

The slope of the regression line, which measures relative volatility, is defined as the stock’s beta coefficient, or b.

32

Use the historical stock returns to calculate the beta for PQU.

Year Market PQU

1 25.7%

40.0%

2 8.0%

-15.0%

3 -11.0%

-15.0%

4 15.0%

35.0%

5 32.5%

10.0%

6 13.7%

30.0%

7 40.0%

42.0%

8 10.0%

-10.0%

9 -10.8%

-25.0%

10 -13.1%

25.0%

33

Calculating Beta for PQU

rPQU = 0.8308 rM + 0.0256

R2 = 0.3546-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Market Return

PQ

U R

etu

rn

Beta & PQU Co.

Beta reflects slope of line via regression y = mx + b m=slope + b= y intercept Rpqu = 0.8308 rM + 0.0256 So, PQU’s beta is .8308 & y-intercept @

2.56%

Beta & PQU Co. & R2

R2 measures degree of dispersion about regression line (ie – measures % of variance explained by regression equation)

PQU’s R2 of .3546 means about 35% of PQU’s returns are explained by the market returns (32% for a typical stock)

R2 of .95 on portfolio of 40 randomly selected stocks would reflect a regression line with points tightly clustered to it.

36

Two-Stock Portfolios Two stocks can be combined to form

a riskless portfolio if = -1.0. Risk is not reduced at all if the two

stocks have = +1.0. In general, stocks have ≈ 0.35, so

risk is lowered but not eliminated. Investors typically hold many stocks. What happens when = 0?

37

Adding Stocks to a Portfolio

What would happen to the risk of an average 1-stock portfolio as more randomly selected stocks were added?

p would decrease because the added stocks would not be perfectly correlated, but the expected portfolio return would remain relatively constant.

38

stock ≈ 35%Many stocks ≈ 20%

-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Returns (% )

1 stock2 stocksMany stocks

3910 20 30 40 2,000 stocks

Company Specific (Diversifiable) Risk

Market Risk

20%

0

Stand-Alone Risk, p

p

35%

Risk vs. Number of Stock in Portfolio

40

Stand-alone risk = Market risk + Diversifiable risk

Market risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.

Firm-specific, or diversifiable, risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.

41

Conclusions As more stocks are added, each new

stock has a smaller risk-reducing impact on the portfolio.

p falls very slowly after about 40 stocks are included. The lower limit for p is about 20% = M .

By forming well-diversified portfolios, investors can eliminate about half the risk of owning a single stock.

42

Can an investor holding one stock earn a return commensurate with its risk?

No. Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios.

They bear only market risk, so prices and returns reflect this lower risk.

The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk, so the return is less than that required by the risk.

43

How is market risk measured for individual securities?

Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio.

It is measured by a stock’s beta coefficient. For stock i, its beta is:

bi = (i,M i) / M

44

How are betas calculated?

In addition to measuring a stock’s contribution of risk to a portfolio, beta also measures the stock’s volatility relative to the market.

45

Using a Regression to Estimate Beta

Run a regression with returns on the stock in question plotted on the Y axis and returns on the market portfolio plotted on the X axis.

The slope of the regression line, which measures relative volatility, is defined as the stock’s beta coefficient, or b.

46

Use the historical stock returns to calculate the beta for PQU.

Year Market PQU

1 25.7%

40.0%

2 8.0%

-15.0%

3 -11.0%

-15.0%

4 15.0%

35.0%

5 32.5%

10.0%

6 13.7%

30.0%

7 40.0%

42.0%

8 10.0%

-10.0%

9 -10.8%

-25.0%

10 -13.1%

25.0%

47

Calculating Beta for PQU

rPQU = 0.8308 rM + 0.0256

R2 = 0.3546-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Market Return

PQ

U R

etu

rn

48

Expected Return versus Market Risk: Which investment is best?

Security

ExpectedReturn

(%) Risk, bAlta 17.4 1.29Market 15.0 1.00Am. Foam 13.8 0.68T-bills 8.0 0.00Repo Men

1.7 -0.86

49

Capital Asset Pricing Model

The Security Market Line (SML) is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

Return = Risk Free + Beta (RetMrkt –Rf)

SML: ri = rRF + (RPM)bi . Assume rRF = 8%; rM = rM = 15%. RPM = (rM - rRF) = 15% - 8% = 7%.

50

Use the SML to calculate eachalternative’s required return.

The Security Market Line (SML) is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

SML: ri = rRF + (RPM)bi . Assume rRF = 8%; rM = rM = 15%. RPM = (rM - rRF) = 15% - 8% = 7%.

51

Required Rates of Return

rAlta = 8.0% + (7%)(1.29) = 17%. rM = 8.0% + (7%)(1.00) = 15.0%. rAm. F. = 8.0% + (7%)(0.68) =

12.8%. rT-bill = 8.0% + (7%)(0.00) = 8.0%. rRepo = 8.0% + (7%)(-0.86) = 2.0%.

52

Expected versus Required Returns (%)

Exp. Req. r rAlta 17.4 17.0

Undervalued Market 15.0 15.0 Fairly

valuedAm. Foam

13.8 12.8 Undervalued

T-bills 8.0 8.0 Fairly valued

Repo 1.7 2.0 Overvalued

53

SML: ri = rRF + (RPM) bi

ri = 8% + (7%) bi

..Repo

.Alta

T-bills

.Am. Foam

rM = 15

rRF = 8

-1 0 1 2

.

ri (%)

Risk, bi

Market

54

Calculate beta for a portfolio with 50% Alta and 50% Repo

bp = Weighted average= 0.5(bAlta) + 0.5(bRepo)= 0.5(1.29) + 0.5(-0.86)= 0.22.

55

Required Return on the Alta/Repo Portfolio?

rp = Weighted average r = 0.5(17%) + 0.5(2%) = 9.5%.

Or use SML:

rp = rRF + (RPM) bp

= 8.0% + 7%(0.22) = 9.5%.

56

SML1

Original situation

r (%)

SML2

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Risk, bi

1815

11 8

New SML I = 3%

Impact of Inflation Change on SML

57

SML1

Original situation

r (%)SML2

After change

Risk, bi

18

15

8

1.0

RPM = 3%

Impact of Risk Aversion Change

58

Has the CAPM been completely confirmed or refuted?

No. The statistical tests have problems that make empirical verification or rejection virtually impossible. Investors’ required returns are based

on future risk, but betas are calculated with historical data.

Investors may be concerned about both stand-alone and market risk.

Below are per book mini-case

60

Consider the FollowingInvestment Alternatives

Econ. Prob.

T-Bill Alta Repo Am F. MP

Bust

0.10 8.0%-22.0%

28.0%

10.0%

-13.0%

Below avg.

0.20

8.0 -2.0 14.7 -10.0 1.0

Avg.

0.408.0 20.0 0.0 7.0 15.0

Above avg.

0.20

8.0 35.0 -10.0 45.0 29.0

Boom

0.10 8.0 50.0 -20.0 30.0 43.0

1.00

61

What is unique about T-bill returns?

T-bill returns 8% regardless of the state of the economy.

Is T-bill riskless? Explain.

62

Alta Inds. and Repo Men vs. Economy

Alta moves with economy, so it is positively correlated with economy. This is typical

Repo Men moves counter to economy. Such negative correlation is unusual.

63

Calculate the expected rate of return on each alternative.

r = expected rate of return(think wtd average)

rAlta = 0.10(-22%) + 0.20(-2%) + 0.40(20%) + 0.20(35%) + 0.10(50%) = 17.4%.

^

^ n∑r =

^

i=1riPi.

64

Alta has the highest rate of return. Does that make it best?

Expected return

Alta 17.4%Market 15.0Am. Foam 13.8T-bill 8.0Repo Men 1.7

65

What is the standard deviationof returns for each alternative?

σ = Standard deviation

σ = √ Variance = √ σ2

n∑i=1

= √ (ri – r)2 Pi.^

66

= [(-22 - 17.4)20.10 + (-2 - 17.4)20.20 + (20 - 17.4)20.40 + (35 - 17.4)20.20 + (50 - 17.4)20.10]1/2 = 20.0%.

Standard Deviation of Alta Industries

67

T-bills = 0.0%.

Alta = 20.0%.

Repo = 13.4%.

Am Foam = 18.8%.

Market = 15.3%.

Standard Deviation of Alternatives

68

Expected Return versus Risk

SecurityExpected

Return Risk, Alta Inds. 17.4% 20.0%Market 15.0 15.3Am. Foam 13.8 18.8T-bills 8.0 0.0Repo Men

1.7 13.4

69

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

CV = Standard deviation / Expected return

CVT-BILLS = 0.0% / 8.0% = 0.0. CVAlta Inds = 20.0% / 17.4% = 1.1. CVRepo Men = 13.4% / 1.7% = 7.9. CVAm. Foam = 18.8% / 13.8% = 1.4. CVM = 15.3% / 15.0% = 1.0.

70

Expected Return versus Coefficient of Variation

Security

Expected

ReturnRisk:

Risk:CV

Alta Inds 17.4% 20.0% 1.1

Market 15.0 15.3 1.0Am. Foam 13.8 18.8 1.4T-bills 8.0 0.0 0.0Repo Men 1.7 13.4 7.9

71

Return vs. Risk (Std. Dev.): Which investment is best?

T-bills

Repo

MktAm. Foam

Alta

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Risk (Std. Dev.)

Ret

urn

72

Portfolio Risk and Return

Assume a two-stock portfolio with $50,000 in Alta Inds. and $50,000 in Repo Men.

Calculate rp and p.^

73

Portfolio Expected Return

rp = Σ wi ri

rp is a weighted average (wi is % ofportfolio in stock i):

rp = 0.5(17.4%) + 0.5(1.7%) = 9.6%.^

^

^ ^n

i = 1

74

Alternative Method: Find portfolio return in each economic state

Economy Prob. Alta Repo

Port.= 0.5(Alta)

+ 0.5(Rep

o)Bust 0.10 -22.0% 28.0% 3.0%Below avg.

0.20 -2.0 14.7 6.4

Average 0.40 20.0 0.0 10.0Above avg.

0.20 35.0 -10.0 12.5

Boom 0.10 50.0 -20.0 15.0

75

Use portfolio outcomes to estimate risk and expected return

rp = (3.0%)0.10 + (6.4%)0.20 + (10.0%)0.40 + (12.5%)0.20 + (15.0%)0.10 = 9.6%

^

p = ((3.0 - 9.6)20.10 + (6.4 - 9.6)20.20

+(10.0 - 9.6)20.40 + (12.5 - 9.6)20.20

+ (15.0 - 9.6)20.10)1/2 = 3.3%

CVp = 3.3%/9.6% = .34

76

Portfolio vs. Its Components Portfolio expected return (9.6%) is

between Alta (17.4%) and Repo (1.7%) returns.

Portfolio standard deviation is much lower than: either stock (20% and 13.4%). average of Alta and Repo (16.7%).

The reason is due to negative correlation () between Alta and Repo returns.

77

Two-Stock Portfolios Two stocks can be combined to form

a riskless portfolio if = -1.0. Risk is not reduced at all if the two

stocks have = +1.0. In general, stocks have ≈ 0.35, so

risk is lowered but not eliminated. Investors typically hold many stocks. What happens when = 0?

78

Adding Stocks to a Portfolio

What would happen to the risk of an average 1-stock portfolio as more randomly selected stocks were added?

p would decrease because the added stocks would not be perfectly correlated, but the expected portfolio return would remain relatively constant.

79

stock ≈ 35%Many stocks ≈ 20%

-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Returns (% )

1 stock2 stocksMany stocks

8010 20 30 40 2,000 stocks

Company Specific (Diversifiable) Risk

Market Risk

20%

0

Stand-Alone Risk, p

p

35%

Risk vs. Number of Stock in Portfolio

81

Stand-alone risk = Market risk + Diversifiable risk

Market risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.

Firm-specific, or diversifiable, risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.

82

Conclusions As more stocks are added, each new

stock has a smaller risk-reducing impact on the portfolio.

p falls very slowly after about 40 stocks are included. The lower limit for p is about 20% = M .

By forming well-diversified portfolios, investors can eliminate about half the risk of owning a single stock.

83

Can an investor holding one stock earn a return commensurate with its risk?

No. Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios.

They bear only market risk, so prices and returns reflect this lower risk.

The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk, so the return is less than that required by the risk.

84

How is market risk measured for individual securities?

Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio.

It is measured by a stock’s beta coefficient. For stock i, its beta is:

bi = (i,M i) / M

85

How are betas calculated?

In addition to measuring a stock’s contribution of risk to a portfolio, beta also measures the stock’s volatility relative to the market.

86

Using a Regression to Estimate Beta

Run a regression with returns on the stock in question plotted on the Y axis and returns on the market portfolio plotted on the X axis.

The slope of the regression line, which measures relative volatility, is defined as the stock’s beta coefficient, or b.

87

Use the historical stock returns to calculate the beta for PQU.

Year Market PQU

1 25.7%

40.0%

2 8.0%

-15.0%

3 -11.0%

-15.0%

4 15.0%

35.0%

5 32.5%

10.0%

6 13.7%

30.0%

7 40.0%

42.0%

8 10.0%

-10.0%

9 -10.8%

-25.0%

10 -13.1%

25.0%

88

Calculating Beta for PQU

rPQU = 0.8308 rM + 0.0256

R2 = 0.3546-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Market Return

PQ

U R

etu

rn

89

What is beta for PQU?

The regression line, and hence beta, can be found using a calculator with a regression function or a spreadsheet program. In this example, b = 0.83.

90

Calculating Beta in Practice

Many analysts use the S&P 500 to find the market return.

Analysts typically use four or five years’ of monthly returns to establish the regression line.

Some analysts use 52 weeks of weekly returns.

91

How is beta interpreted?

If b = 1.0, stock has average risk. If b > 1.0, stock is riskier than

average. If b < 1.0, stock is less risky than

average. Most stocks have betas in the range

of 0.5 to 1.5. Can a stock have a negative beta?

92

Other Web Sites for Beta

Go to http://finance.yahoo.com Enter the ticker symbol for a

“Stock Quote”, such as IBM or Dell, then click GO.

When the quote comes up, select Key Statistics from panel on left.

93

Expected Return versus Market Risk: Which investment is best?

Security

ExpectedReturn

(%) Risk, bAlta 17.4 1.29Market 15.0 1.00Am. Foam 13.8 0.68T-bills 8.0 0.00Repo Men

1.7 -0.86

94

Use the SML to calculate eachalternative’s required return.

The Security Market Line (SML) is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

SML: ri = rRF + (RPM)bi . Assume rRF = 8%; rM = rM = 15%. RPM = (rM - rRF) = 15% - 8% = 7%.

95

Required Rates of Return

rAlta = 8.0% + (7%)(1.29) = 17%. rM = 8.0% + (7%)(1.00) = 15.0%. rAm. F. = 8.0% + (7%)(0.68) =

12.8%. rT-bill = 8.0% + (7%)(0.00) = 8.0%. rRepo = 8.0% + (7%)(-0.86) = 2.0%.

96

Expected versus Required Returns (%)

Exp. Req. r rAlta 17.4 17.0

Undervalued Market 15.0 15.0 Fairly

valuedAm. Foam

13.8 12.8 Undervalued

T-bills 8.0 8.0 Fairly valued

Repo 1.7 2.0 Overvalued

97

SML: ri = rRF + (RPM) bi

ri = 8% + (7%) bi

..Repo

.Alta

T-bills

.Am. Foam

rM = 15

rRF = 8

-1 0 1 2

.

ri (%)

Risk, bi

Market

98

Calculate beta for a portfolio with 50% Alta and 50% Repo

bp = Weighted average= 0.5(bAlta) + 0.5(bRepo)= 0.5(1.29) + 0.5(-0.86)= 0.22.

99

Required Return on the Alta/Repo Portfolio?

rp = Weighted average r = 0.5(17%) + 0.5(2%) = 9.5%.

Or use SML:

rp = rRF + (RPM) bp

= 8.0% + 7%(0.22) = 9.5%.

100

SML1

Original situation

r (%)

SML2

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Risk, bi

1815

11 8

New SML I = 3%

Impact of Inflation Change on SML

101

SML1

Original situation

r (%)SML2

After change

Risk, bi

18

15

8

1.0

RPM = 3%

Impact of Risk Aversion Change

102

Has the CAPM been completely confirmed or refuted?

No. The statistical tests have problems that make empirical verification or rejection virtually impossible. Investors’ required returns are based

on future risk, but betas are calculated with historical data.

Investors may be concerned about both stand-alone and market risk.