A puzzled person looks at MOOCSOrmond Simpson

Visiting Fellow, Centre for Distance Education University of London

Previously Visiting Professor, Open Polytechnic of New ZealandPreviously Senior Lecturer in Institutional Research, Open

University

1

RIDE 2013

2

‘E-learning’ ?- a ‘category error’?

Gilbert Ryle 1900-76

3

‘E-learning’ ?or

‘E-teaching’ ?

4

“No teacher can ever be

certain that their

teaching will cause a

learner to learn”

- Ramsden (2003)Professor Paul

Ramsden

OU % graduation rates by year of entry

1971 -1981

1997 on

0

10

20

30

40

50

6053

22

5

Beginning of introduction of e-teaching

6

Household internet access (ONS)

7

Completion rates for modules and MOOCS

Average first year full-time undergraduate completion rate

Average OU module completion rate(new students)

Average MOOC completion rate

85%

55%

6 - 9%

8

Importance of learning motivation

“The best predictor of student retention is

motivation.

“…Most students drop out because of

reduced motivation”

(Anderson, San Diego, 2003)

Professor Edward Anderson

1942-2005

9

The future of MOOCS?- will be decided by money

10

How will MOOCS be paid for?

• Governments – why would they?

• Grants from other bodies – pump-priming?

• • Industry / commerce – for training?

• Institutional own funding?

11

Institutions own funding

• ‘loss leaders’ to encourage recruitment?

• ‘Tasters’ for intending students to inform their course choice?

12

From student fees

13

But if students pay fees for a MOOC then:

• they will want a qualification with a suitable resale value

• A fair chance of getting that qualification

Student self-funding

Funding MOOCS

£ Fund student support

14

Increases student

retention

Students willing to pay

more

15

Cost benefits of retention

If F = students fee per year, S = institutional expenditure per student, V = total institutional overhead then if the number of students in year 1 is N1 and in year 2 is N2

Income Year 1 = N1F – (N1S + V) Income Year 2 = N2F – (N2S + V)

Reduction in income due to student dropout between years

= N1F – (N1S + V) – [N2F – (N2S + V)] = (N1 – N2)(F – S)

Then if there is a retention activity costing £P per student it will cost N1P. If that increases retention by n students so that N2 becomes N1 + n then the reduction in income is now:

[N1 – (N2 + n)](F - S)

So the reduction is itself reduced making a saving of

(N1 – N2)(F – S) – {[N1 – (N2 + n)](F - S)} = n(F – S)

For the retention activity to be self-supporting n(F – S) > N1P

Or np > 100P/(F – S) where np is the per cent increase in retention

For example P = £10 F = £2500, S = £1000 then np > 100x10/(2500-1000) = 0.67%

So if a retention activity costing £10 per student produces an increase in retention of more than 0.67% it will be self-supporting

16

For a MOOC to make a profit it needs to ensure that:

1.25np > P or np > 0.8P

where P is the cost of a retention activity that increases retention by np % points

Thus for example if the institution expends £10 on an individual student it needs to get an increase in retention of 8% to break even.

17