Post on 01-Nov-2014
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RETAIL TRENDS FOR 2013 AND BEYOND
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GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
INTERCONNECTED
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”Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”
Niels Bohr
GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
INTERCONNECTED
RETAILOMANIA
The competetive environment of retail, is similar to a flock of birds.
Every single bird is affected by the flock, but at the same time the flock is affected by the
movement of every single bird.
GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
INTERCONNECTED
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SOME BIRDS ARE GAME CHANGERS.
IN A WORLD WERE EVERYBODY THOUGHT THAT A SWANS WERE WHITE, IT WAS REVOLUTIONARY TO FIND OUT THAT SOME WERE NOT.
The term black swan has since Nassim Nicholas Taleb used this analogy in his book ”The Black Swan” been a term to desbribe events that seem impossible to predict, but when it enters the scene chages all the rules. Retrospectively we have a tendency to find simplistic explanations for theese.
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WE TEND TO LOOK OUT FOR THINGS AND SIGNS THAT FITS WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW AND THEREBY OVERLOOK WHAT ACTUALLY SHAPES THE FUTURE.
WHAT IS A SURPRISE FOR THE TURKEY IS NOT A SURPRISE FOR THE BUTCHER.
THE BIG OOOPS!!! HAS BEEN A PART OF THE AGENDA FROM THE START. THE TURKEY JUST DID NOT SEE IT COMING.
GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
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SO LETS GET SOME …
THE LESSON FROM THE TURKEY IS THAT PREDICTION IS ABOUT PERSPECTIVE.
1. UNREST IS HERE TO STAY
THE CAUSES OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, EURO CRISIS AND THE TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS NOT BEEN SOLVED AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SOLVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ON THE CONTRARY -‐ WHAT WE USES TO CALL CRISIS JUST MIGHT
THE NEW NORMAL
GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
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FINANCIAL STIMULUS WILL NOT WORK IF THE CAUSES ARE NOT DEALT WITH…
GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
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…AND ON A GLOBAL SCALE, WHAT WE SEE AS SINGLE EVENTS: THE CHINA/TAIWAN/JAPANESE CLASH OVER A FEW TINY ISLANDS, RUSSIAN MILITARY BUILDUP IN THE ARCTIC AND THE
IRANIAN/MIDDLE EAST TENSION ARE ALL ABOUT CONTROL OVER OIL AND ENDING RESOURCES. THESE EVENTS WILL CONTUNUE TO ARISE AND THREATEN WORLD PEACE IN THE FORESEABLE
FUTURE.
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SURVIVAL IS NOT ABOUT SURVIVING THE NEXT SEASON.
YOU MOST LIKELY NEED A PLAN FOR SURVIVAL FOR THE NEXT DECADE.
THE ABILITY TO ADAPT PRODUCTS, COSTS, BUSINESS MODELS AND JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE IS CRUISAL TO SURVIVAL IN A GLOBAL MARKETPLACE
2. GLOBAL VS LOCAL VS GLOCAL
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IN A WORLD OF UNSAFETY PEOPLE WILL BE IN THE MARKET
FOR SAFETY
THIS MEANS THAT LOCAL JUST MIGHT BE THE NEW GLOBAL
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THE LAST 25 YEARS IN BRIEF :
THE BERLIN WALL FELL, CHINA OPENED UP, THE INTERNET MADE PEOPLE COME TOGETHER AND INTERACT OVER CONTINENTS IN A WAY THAT WE HAVE NEVER
SEEN
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DURING THE 90s RETAIL WENT SERIOUSLY GLOBAL
WAL-‐MART, , TESCO, CARREFOUR, H&M, ZARA, IKEA, HOME DEPOT ET AL FOUND NEW MARKET ABROAD.
ANYTHING THAT WAS NOT GLOBAL WAS THREATENED TO BE SWALLOWED BY THE GREAT RETAIL PREDATORS
EX-‐COMMUNIST COUNTRIES WANTED ANYTHING WITH A
WESTERN BRAND ON IT AS A SIGN OF FREEDOM
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THIS ERA CAME TO AN END WITH THE WAR ON TERROR WERE THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, IN ITS SEARCH FOR THE TERRORIST RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS, ALSO UPSET A WORLD OF MUSLIM COUNTRIES, AND BY THE METHOD USED BLURRED THE IMAGE OF THE USA AS THE LIBERATORS AS IT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SINCE THE D-‐DAY
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Real vs esGmated world producGon of crude oil
Källa: Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections, Australian Department of Infrastructure, Transport,
Regional Development and Local Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government
OIL HAS BEEN THE CAUSE OF SEVERAL WARS, SIMPLY BECAUSE IT IS THE BLOOD SYSTEM OF MODERN TRANSPORTATION. WHEN THE OIL PRODUCTION REACHES ITS PEAK, ANY LOGISTIC OPERATION WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE, THEREBY CHANGING THE FOUNDATION OF MODERN RETAILING WITH GLOBAL SOURCING AND GLOBAL STORE NETWORKS.
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-‐ LOCAL BRANDS WILL BE ABLE TO CHALLENGE GLOBAL BRANDS AS PRICES FOR TRANSPORTATION WILL RISE.
-‐ OLD TIME BRAND CHAMPIONS OF THE WEST (LIKE COKE FOR EXAMPLE) ARE NOT THE OBVIOUS WINNERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND TIGER ECONOMIES OF AFRICA AND ASIA, AS THE IMAGE OF THE USA HAS CHANGED FROM LIBERATORS TO CRUSADERS IN CERTAIN COUNTRIES.
-‐ SMALLER STORES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AS IT MEANS LOWER INVESTMENTS, CLOSENESS TO MARKET AND HIGHER SALES PER SQM AS WELL AS ENERGY EFFICIENCY
3. SOCIAL MEDIA SOBRIETY
GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD
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The last decade has senn
DURING THE LAST DECADE , THERE HAS BEEN A FANTASTIC GROWTH OF WHAT WE CALL SOCIAL MEDIA: DIFFERENT DIGITAL SERVICES FOR SHARING VIEWS AND INFORMATION, CONNECTING AND SELF BRANDING.
THESE SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE TO CONNECT WITH FRIENDS AND WITH BRANDS. CONSUMERS ARE ABLE TO TALK ABOUT, AND SHARE VIEWS AND EXPERIENCES WITH OTHER CONSUMERS WITHOUT THE CONTROL OR INVOLVEMENT OF THE BRAND OWNER BEING DISCUSSED. CERTAINLY A CHALLENGING SITUATION IN A WORLD WERE THE LARGEST BRAND COULD PROJECT ANY MESSAGE JUST BY BEING THE HIGHEST BIDDER ON THE MEDIA MARKET.
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AS ALWAYS, WHEN NEW THINGS POPS UP, SOME PEOPLE TEND TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL REPLACE EVERYTHING ELSE.
IT WON`T
BUT IT WILL ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A DIALOGUE WITH CONSUMERS AND IF YOU DO WELL, CONSUMERS
WILL HELP YOU SPREAD THE MESSAGE.
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PRE-‐TAIL RETAIL POST-‐TAIL
Researching and comparing alternaLves by using: On-‐line search Word of mouth Social networks Ads Apps
Sharing experiences and conquests Word of mouth Social networks In-‐store communicaLon/Signage
Staff In store search with help of mobile devices
Good and bad experiences are being used by other consumers to
facilitate their own decision process
GeYng more detailed informaLon while in-‐store:
TRADITIONAL RETAIL
ONLINE RETAIL
SERVICE RETAIL
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SOCIAL MEDIA IS A BAD EXPRESSION AS IT SUGGESTS THAT BY USING IT YOU ARE PER DEFINITION A SOCIAL COMPANY. BUT
MEDIA ARE NOT SOCIAL. PEOPLE ARE.
THAT MEANS THAT USING SOCIAL MEDIA IS NOT AN EXCUSE FOR NOT DOING THE HOMEWORK ON BRANDING ETC AS COMPANIES
HAVE BEEN DOING THE LAST CENTURY.
IT IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. EXCEPT FOR IF YOU MESS THINGS UP, EVERYBODY WILL KNOW AND LAUGH AT YOU.
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SOCIAL MEDIA SOBRIETY, THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THIS IS NOT THE HOLY GRAIL AS SOCIAL MEDIA CONSULTANTS HAVE TALKED ABOUT
AND THAT EVEN THOSE COMPANYS EVENTUALLY WILL HAVE TO EARN MONEY WILL SET FOCUS ON ROI FOR SOCIAL MEDIA CAMPAIGNS. LIKES
ARE NOT THE SAME AS MONEY. AND SHARING IS NOT THE SAME AS GETTING A NEW CUSTOMER.
YOU CAN PUT LIPSTICK ON A PIG, BUT IT`S STILL A PIG.
ROI IS CRUICAL. IT´S NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME EITHER. ASK MARK ZUCKERBERG – HE SHOULD KNOW BY NOW.
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4. EMBRACE TECHNOLOGY OR DIE
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THE EVOLUTION OF SMART PHONES AND IPADs HAVE LED TO NEW HABITS SUCH AS SECOND SCREENING, MEANING THAT YOU USE A
SECOND SCREEN AT THE SAME TIME YOU WATCH TV IN ORDER TO GET MORE INFORMATION, INTERACT WITH OTHER VIEWERS OR MAKE
COMMENTS TO YOUR ONLINE NETWORK. THIS IS NOW A MAINSTREAM PHENOMENON . WHAT IS INTERESTING IS WITH WHAT
SPEED WE TOTALY CHANGE BEHAVIOUR BASED ON NEW PLATFORMS.
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MOBILE DEVICES HAVE ALSO MADE IT POSSIBLE TO DO RESEARCH ON COMPETITOR PRICES WHILE IN THE STORE BY SIMPLY SCANNING THE BAR CODE AND WAIT FOR THE RESULTS.
AND MADE IT POSSIBLE TO INTERACT WITH ADS, PRODUCTS AND STORES BY SCANNING QR CODES FOR SEVERAL EFFECTS.
BUT THIS IS OLD NEWS.
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THE YEARS TO COME WILL LEAD TO AN EXPLOSION OF AUGUMENTED REALITY APPS BY WHICH YOU CAN GET INFORMATION FROM YOUR SURROUNDINGS BY SIMPLY POINTING YOUR CAMERA AT THEM. BY USING THE PHONES POSITIONING FUNCTIONS, APPS CAN DISPLAY INFORMATION AND POSSIBILITIES TO INTERACT IN WAYS WE HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO DREAM ABOUT.
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hZp://goo.gl/af4kt
Google glasses is a research project that puts computer-‐processing power, a camera, a microphone, wireless communications and a tiny screen into a pair of lightweight eyeglasses.
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But the use of augumented reality will hardly stop there. Several devices will be used as technology get available: http://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/08/augumented-‐reality-‐possibilities.html
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http://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/05/hologram-lingerie-model-haunts-store.html
Technology could also be used in order to create various in store effects:
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5. CASH IS SOOOO 20TH CENTURY
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PayPal processed payments of 78 Billion USD 2011, which is up 36 % from 2010. We will most likely see an explosion in mobile payments in years to come as several retailers adapt in order use the different platforms being developed for mobile payments.
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"Cash has dug in its heels for small-‐value transactions, but with the arrival of each new tech offering (providing) an alternative way to pay for little stuff — text your parking payment, Starbucks mobile app, Square, etc. — cash is being further and further marginalized,”
David Wolman, author of the book The End of Money.
WE NOW SEE THE LAST DAYS OF CASH, A DECLINE THAT STARTED IN THE 50s WITH THE GROWTH OF CREDIT CARDS.
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6. IN STORE EXPERIENCE IS MORE CRUISAL THAN EVER
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CONSUMERS DECIDE WHERE TO BUY A CERTAIN PRODUCT, BASED ON THE FOLLOWING
WHO
HOW
WHAT
WHERE
WHAT IS BEING OFFERED? Assortment Service offer
WHO IS OFFERING? Positioning Brand personality
HOW IS IT OFFERED? Concept Merchandising Visuals Technology
WERE IS IT OFFERED? Channels Locations
WHO AND HOW SETS THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE STORE
C2C EBay
Service providers using retail tactics
Retail banking, insurance companies, travel agencies
Online services
Spotify Voddler
Multi- channel
Online retailers
”Social” media retail platforms
Facebook et al
Mobile retail services
Online virtual goods retailing Farmville etc
Third party co-op
Hotels, gyms, spas
Vending machines
Traditional retail
Retailers providing services
Popup- stores
Drive-thru stores
In-store online kiosks
FROM MULTICHANNEL TO HYPERCHANNEL RETAIL DEVELOPMENT 2012-2022 Online retailers are retailers using
only the online world as their field of operations. Online retailing are likely to rise the coming decade as more consumers are online, more consumers feel safe online and the evolution of payment systems will make payments easier.
The C2C-market is likely to rise due to both economical and environmental concerns.
Virtual goods are products or services consumed online and are never an actual asset of the use.
Online retailing on communities and online social media platforms are likely to be more specialized as the platforms mature.
Mobile internet has exploded over the last couple of years due to smart phones and various need-to-have and nice-to-have apps. More retail functionality will be built into apps and both ecommerce and in-store interactivity will be standard features.
Online kiosks inside stores makes it possible to research online and compare functions and features of the assortment.
Popup stores started as guerilla activities but have now matured as a new format when and where temporary installations are necessary. Here Telenor, mobile phone kiosk.
In order to improve the share of wallet ratio from existing customers several retailers are moving into the service industry providing banking, insurance, gardening wedding and even funeral services.
Vending machines are not what they used to be. Here is U´tiques luxury product vending machine, and its modern cousins from other vending operators are selling everything from shoes to vodka from designed machines.
Why should people need to go outside to grab a prescription or pick up a preordered bag of groceries. Drive-thru are a reality in many places and are likely to rise.
Retail opportunities for situational shopping. Shoes and training equipment at the gym, wellbeing at the spa and so on.
Several banks have launched retail store looking concepts in order to appear as a modern service provider. Photo from Danish Jyske Bank
Multichannel retailers includes offline retailers going online, but also those online retailers that chooses to open a physical store. Some use the online world to gather information before going to the store, while others use the physical store as a showroom before ordering online, perhaps via smart phone while still in the store
Outlets
Traditional retailing will continue to develop with focus on smaller concepts as turnover/square meter will become a critical KPI as competitions get harder. Small format also means: - Quicker, easier shopping - Smaller investments (risk) - Coming closer to the customer implies less fuel spending - More possibilities to optimize store location density.
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THE NUMBER OF CHANNELS ARE EXPLODING
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A CLEAR RETAIL BRAND PERSONALITY IS A MUST
Hard discount
No frills chic
The teacher
The coach
The formal
The good old days
Discount
Knowledge
Authencity
The real thing
Price fighters
Low price with class
Educates the customer
Buddy and helper
Authencity and strict norms
Nostalgia
Best of the best
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The degree of interaction between customer and the store will rise in order to increase the percieved value
Service concept Self service Interactive concepts
Customer as audience
Customer as a partner Customer as a part
of the concept High degree of inteaction
Low degree of inteaction
The customer are not interested or allowed to browse the merchanidise themselves, but are served by staff.
The most common of concepts during the later half of the 20th century. The customer choses what they want to by and goes to the cashier. The customer does one part of the job and thereby get a better price.
The store visit is an integral part of the product were the customer is co-‐creating or personalizing a product to fit special requirements.
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hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/06/merging-‐of-‐online-‐and-‐offline.html
hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2011/01/connected-‐store-‐intels-‐vision-‐of-‐future.html
hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/05/blurring-‐borders-‐between-‐online-‐and.html
BLURRING OF OFF LINE AND ON LINE EXPERIENCE WILL INCREASE OVER TIME
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7. CUSTOMER DATA ANALYSIS NECESSARY TO KEEP TRACK OF VISITOR BEHAVIOR
Can you aZract new visitors?
Can you convert more visitors into customers.
Can you make every customer buy more?
Can you make them come more ocen?
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MOST RETAILERS COUNT THEIR VISITORS IN ORDER TO KEEP TRACK OF STORE PERFORMANCE
-‐ The number of visitors -‐ Conversion rate
-‐ Number of add-‐on sales -‐ Average basket value
-‐ Average number of articles per transaction
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BUT TECHNOLOGY ALLOWS THE RETAILER TO USE EYE TRACKING TECHNOLOGY AND AUTOMATIC IN STORE TRAFFIC TRACKING IN ORDER TO ANALYSE CUSTOMER FLOW, HOT SPOTS AND COLD ZONES OF THE STORE, THEREBY MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO MOVE HIGH MARGIN PRODUCTS TO ZONES WITH MORE TRAFFIC.
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AS COMPETITION GETS TOUGHER IN STORE TRAFFIC ANALYSIS WILL BE CRUICAL IN
ORDER TO MAINTAIN A PROFITABLE STORE AT ALL TIMES.
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hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/05/teotrwawki-‐retail-‐survival-‐tacLcs.html
STRATEGY IS GREAT!!!
BUT DON´T FORGET THE EVERYDAY TACTICS THAT MAKES STRATEGY HAPPEN
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AND FINALLY; BEING A TURKEY OR A BLACK SWAN IS PART INNOVATION, PART CHOICE AND PART EVERYDAY
HARD WORK
BUT REMEMBER…
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www.morm.se Retailomania.blogspot.com @retailomania https://www.facebook.com/Retailomania
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