Post on 30-Jan-2016
description
REPUBLIC OFBELARUS
OUTLINE:
BackgroundEconomic development since
1991Preconditions and impact of
world financial crisis in 2008Devaluation of currency in 2009Conclusion
BACKGROUND Total area 207,600 sq km Population 9,648,533 (2009) GDP-real growth rate 8.1%
(2008) GDP per capita $12,000
(2008) Labor force 4.3 million
(2005) Official unemployment rate
1.6% (2005) Inflation rate (consumer
prices) 15.5 % (2008) CA balance -$3.832 billion
(2008)
SINCE INDEPENDENCE 1991:
Steady Growth Has Driven Poverty Reduction (GDP growth index and poverty headcount rates)
38.6 32.1 33
46.7 41.9
28.9 30.5 27.1
159.2 149.3
142.2 135.8
128.4 124.1 114.5
102.8
177.3
17.8
0
10.
20
30
40
50
60.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
GDP growth Index, 1995=100
Poverty headcount ratio, %
220
180
140
100
60
20
GDP growth
Poverty headcount ratio
Source: Country Economic Memorandum for the Republic of Belarus, World Bank
AVERAGE ANNUAL GDP GROWTH, %
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996-2000 2001-2004
CEEBS
Lithuania
Poland
CIS
Russia
Ukraine
Belarus
Source: World Bank ECA Regional Database
AVERAGE ANNUAL INFLATION, %
Source: World Bank ECA Regional Database
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996-2000 2001-2004
CEEBS Lithuania
Poland CIS
Russia Ukraine
Belarus
STRUCTURE OF EXPORT OF PRODUCTION FROM THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS IN 2007, IN COST EXPRESSION
Source: IRUE "National center of marketing and price study"
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, 2008PRECONDITIONS:
High degree of government interventions
Underdeveloped stock marketHigh dependence on trade with
RussiaSlow pace of geographic export
diversification
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISIMPACT:
State dominated economy, limited contact with world financial markets, less dependent on international credit
not severe effect of financial crisis
Sharp decline in Russian economic subsidies and sharp decline in exports and imports to Russia due to financial crisis
affected Belarusian economy
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS, RUSSIA
JANUARY 2009 CURRENCY DEVALUATION
immediate 20 % devaluation in the BYB, implemented on January 2, 2009
$2.5bn (£1.7bn, €1.8bn) IMF emergency loan, $1 bn credit from Russia, $ 500 mln from Venezuela
the central bank raised interest rates from 12 to 14%
possible devaluation in the future by 25 %
BELARUSIAN RURLE OFFICIAL AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST FOREIGN CURRENCY
Period Russian ruble
US dollar
Euro
2008
December
78.26 2 189.82 2 935.04
2009
January 84.36 2 667.49 3 544.27
February 78.39 2 806.94 3 595.02
Source: National Bank of Belarus
CONCLUSION
State-dominated economyHigh dependence on single and
unstable market – RussiaImpact of financial crisis
Need for economic reformsQuestionable effect of
currency devaluation
REFERENCES
CIA factbook National Bank of Belarus IMF IPM Research Center Financial Times, UK Deutsche Welle Narodnaya Volya, Belarusian news
THANK YOU!