Post on 14-Jun-2020
RESEARCH
THE
GERMANY REPORT 2017
32
THE GERMANY REPORT 2017 RESEARCH
German GDP in Q4 2016 increased by 0.4%, up from 0.1% in the previous quarter; the annual growth rate was 1.9%. Strong consumer spending buoyed the Q4 figures, as very low interest rates encouraged people to spend rather than save.
However, in early 2017 inflation is on the rise, reaching 1.9% in January, prompting calls from politicians and newspaper editors for the ECB to raise interest rates. While the case for monetary tightening in Germany is compelling, in other parts of the Eurozone this is not the case. In Spain, unemployment stands at 18.4%, for instance. In contrast, German unemployment is 5.9%, with some of the more successful regions and cities facing labour and skills shortages.
The ECB will find itself torn between the desire to prevent the German economy from overheating, while not wanting to pour cold water on recovery in other parts of the Eurozone. This possible divergence in needs between Germany and other parts of the Eurozone is, however, unfortunately timed from a political perspective.
In 2017, national elections are timetabled in Germany, as well as France and the Netherlands, with the issues of EU relations, and more controversially immigration, expected to prompt heated debate. Presently, there is a storm of political populism spreading across the globe. In June of 2016 it reached the UK with its vote to leave the EU; by November of that year it arrived in the USA with the election of President Trump. There is widespread concern that in 2017, continental Europe is next.
Inevitably, evidence of a split over monetary policy between Germany and other Eurozone nations could be politically exploited by anti-EU politicians in the 2017 elections.
In this context, Germany’s election timing (for September) could be either favourable or unfortunate, depending on the outcomes and events of the preceding polls. A disappointing electoral performance for the Euro sceptics in France and the Netherlands could end the sense of ascendency the populist politicians have gained since the UK
EUROPE’S ECONOMIC ENGINE The German economy finished 2016 on a high note, although political and monetary challenges lie ahead in 2017.
referendum and Trump’s election. This could strengthen the hand of the establishment parties in the German poll.
Conversely, strong votes for Geert Wilder’s Party for Freedom and Marine Le Pen’s National Front, could lead international investors to conclude that Germany’s Euro sceptics may be close to a political breakthrough. This could deter overseas investment into Germany, and persuade domestic investors to take a wait-and-see approach.
In this context, an end to accommodative monetary policy could prove to be premature for Germany, as robust consumer spending may be needed prior to the election to offset any slowdown in business investment.
Consequently, investor sentiment in regard to Germany could face a roller coaster ride. On the one hand, the country’s economic fundamentals – growth, unemployment, and debt levels – are all robust. On the other hand, the political backdrop is more uncertain and volatile than is usually the case. Similar to the US and the UK, Germany’s
FIGURE 1
German GDP Growth
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
FIGURE 2
Unemployment rates
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Gre
ece
Sp
ain
Italy
Por
tuga
l
Fran
ce
Pol
and
Finl
and
Bel
gium
Sw
eden
Irela
nd
Net
herla
nds
Ger
man
y
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Nor
way
Den
mar
k
Sw
itzer
land
economy is in good health, the potential problem is the politics.
However, the political storm will ultimately pass over, returning investor focus to the country’s economic strengths, which is the bedrock of good commercial property investment. The
IMF is forecasting GDP growth of 1.4%
in 2017 for Germany, outperforming
France on 1.3% and Italy at 0.8%. Across
the globe there is a perception that
Germany is one of the premier advanced
economies in which to invest, and that
certainly will not change in 2017.
Source: International Monetary Fund
Source: The Economist (latest available as at February 2017)
Source: Federal Statistics Office, The Economist
80.2mPOPULATION
1.9%
GERMANY KEY STATS 2016
GDPGROWTH
CURRENTACCOUNTBALANCE
% OF GDP 2016
Equivalent to 1% of world population
Switzerland Germany Netherlands Ireland Italy SpainFrance
UK
€3.2tnGDP BERLIN
3.5mHAMBURG1.8m
MUNICH1.5m
-1.1%1.8%2.7%7.6%8.1%8.9%9.4%
-5.4%
COLOGNE
1.0m
0.7m
FRANKFURTAM MAIN
THE ECONOMY AND POLITICS
“ Across the globe there is a perception that Germany is one of the premier advanced economies in which to invest, and that certainly will not change in 2017.”
WRITTEN BY
JAMES ROBERTS Chief Economist
54
THE GERMANY REPORT 2017 RESEARCH
“ We don’t expect the elections to have any significant impact on investor confidence. Germany will remain Europe’s safe haven.”
WRITTEN BY
JOACHIM VON RADECKE Head of German Desk, European Capital Markets
This number one spot is usually held by the UK, however in the year of the Brexit referendum, the UK saw the biggest year-on-year drop in transaction volumes of all European countries (circa 42%). Although Germany’s transaction volumes also weakened year-on-year by almost 14%, there remains strong investor interest with Germany representing one of the most sought after property investment markets in Europe.
One of the attractive characteristics of Germany is its diversity of property markets, with the top 7 being Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg, Cologne, Düsseldorf and Stuttgart. Approximately 55% of the total transaction volume was spread over these seven markets during 2016. Conversely, almost half of all investment transactions occurred within second tier German cities, with markets like the Ruhr Valley or the Saxon Triangle outperforming, and Leipzig alone transacting about €1 billion.
German investors remained the strongest buyer group, accounting for around 60% of total investment volumes. Compared to the previous year, foreign investment into Germany declined by 20%, with in-bound investment falling dramatically from the Middle East (almost -90%), followed by Asia Pacific (-64%) and North America (-37%). It was only investment flows from within Europe which increased year-on-year, albeit by a modest 1.5%.
In our view this decrease in cross-border investment into Germany is not due to a diminishing interest in German commercial property. It is more a sign of the increased competition for investment product and accelerated yield compression which has forced many foreign investors to lose out to German money. It often takes foreign investors longer to come to terms with the reality that focusing their investment strategies on the top 7 markets, or in many cases even fewer than that, also means adjusting their return requirements.
Their German competitors however are quicker in venturing into the many, albeit smaller, yet still liquid second tier cities, such as Dresden, Leipzig, Mannheim, Freiburg, Nuremberg, Essen or Hannover.
Prime office yields in the top 7 German cities, stated as gross initial yields, are currently at historically low levels. They are lowest in Munich (3.30%), followed by Berlin and Hamburg (3.50%), Stuttgart and Frankfurt (4.00%), Düsseldorf (4.25%) and Cologne (4.50%).
1 Transaction volumes include office, retail, industrial, hotel, apartment and development sites.
GERMANY – EUROPE’S SAFE HAVEN2016 was a historic year for German property markets. With a total transaction volume of almost €59 billion1, Germany’s property market was the most active in Europe.
Source: Knight Frank Research
Canada€2.0bn
USA€5.7bn
Rest ofEurope€3.6bn
MENA
€0.1bn
APAC
€0.8bn
FRANCE
ITALY
UK€2.8bn
€2.4bn
SWITZERLAND€1.9bn
€1.1bn
Figure 3: Cross-border investment 1. Change USA and Canada bubbles to �agged bubble (ie. Like UK, Italy) Also, we will need to apportion the size of the bubbles relative to their volumes so that the European bubbles are di�erent sizes. So in order of largest bubble: USA, Rest of Europe, UK, France, Canada, Swizterland (these two bubbles should be the same size), Italy, APAC and MENA. The APAC and MENA bubble sizes are �ne, I think. Also, the Rest of Europe and USA are also �ne when compared to each another, but the Europe country ones are out of proportion (I know this is probably because of the new layout I suggested). If we keep the size of the Europe USA and Rest of Europe bubbles as they are, the UK will need to be much larger at about ¾ the size of the Rest of Europe bubble and the other three countries will need to be apportioned accordingly. Or alternately, you can slightly reduce the size of the USA, Rest of Europe and Canada bubbles. As the bubbles don’t need to be positioned on the country, please do whatever works best.
We expect transactional activity in 2017 to be similar to 2016 levels. The occupational markets remained strong in 2016, with rental growth recorded in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Munich (at least in parts of the city) and in Stuttgart. A strong economy and attractive margins compared to other investment asset classes will keep German commercial property markets high on the agenda. However, we anticipate more investment in second tier cities and in alternative sectors, such as student housing.
Will there be further yield compression? At the end of 2016 interest rates and German government bonds increased and this might be the start of trend reversal. However, interest rates are still at extremely low levels and therefore yields are not expected to soften, but to stay at current levels throughout 2017. We don’t expect the elections to have any significant impact on investor confidence. Germany will remain Europe’s safe haven.
FIGURE 3
Cross-border investment into Germany, 2016
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
H2
2016
H1
2016
H2
2015
H1
2015
H2
2014
H1
2014
H2
2013
H1
2013
H2
2012
H1
2012
H2
2011
H1
2011
H2
2010
H1
2010
H2
2009
H1
2009
H2
2008
H1
2008
H2
2007
H1
2007
H2
2006
H1
2006
H2
2005
H1
2005
FrankfurtMunich
Berlin
FIGURE 4
Prime office yields CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Knight Frank Research
76
THE GERMANY REPORT 2017 RESEARCH
Submarkets Rental range (€/sq m/month)
Prime West – Kurfuerstendamm 18.00 - 28.00
Potsdamer Platz / Leipziger Platz 22.00 - 30.00
Prime East – Friedrichstrasse 22.00 - 28.00
Media Spree 18.00 - 24.00
Europa City 20.00 - 26.00
City West 10.00 - 18.00
Submarkets Rental range (€/sq m/month)
City East 12.00 - 18.00
Decentralised North 8.00 - 14.00
Decentralised East 8.00 - 14.00
Decentralised South 8.00 - 14.00
Decentralised West 8.00 - 14.00
Adlershof 10.00 - 17.00
Berlin has cemented its position as a dynamic global city. It has undergone remarkable regeneration into not only one of Germany’s most cosmopolitan cities, but also one of Europe’s most vibrant. It has been a magnet for artists and creatives, and has received widespread international appeal owing to its open-minded culture and relaxed environment.
Up until the mid-2000s, Berlin had one of the country’s lowest rates of economic growth and highest rates of unemployment. However, over the past decade, its economy has evolved to become one of the best performing in the country, underpinned by the boom in tourism and the services sector. Over recent years, the start-up sector has exploded, with over 40,000 companies founded on average in Berlin each year. Reasonable overheads, low-cost living, and generous incentives offered for start-up businesses have attracted young entrepreneurs and creatives to the city. Subsequently, co-working environments have been burgeoning and have been used to meet the short-term space requirements of the start-up scene. They also offer a cost-effective solution for start-up businesses that are generally priced out of many of Berlin’s submarkets.
Accordingly, Berlin’s occupational market has witnessed solid demand, with demand continuing to outstrip supply. Each of the last three years set a new record for take-up. In 2016, total take-up of 850,000 sq m exceeded the preceding year by 5% and with new supply meeting less than one-quarter of the demand, the supply-demand imbalance has continued to strengthen. Subsequently, occupiers
have been required to submit bids for office space in sought-after locations.
Vacancy levels have continued to fall as a result of these trends, ending the year at 4.1%. The market conditions are not expected to improve from a tenant’s perspective in 2017. Several construction projects are in the pipeline although most of the new space is already pre-leased. Occupiers with large space requirements have recognised the situation and have already begun to evaluate options for 2019 and 2020.
Berlin’s key development projects include Upper West (53,000 sq m) in City West due for completion in 2017. At 118m in height, it will be one of Berlin’s tallest buildings featuring offices, retail and a hotel. The important technology cluster at Berlin-Aldserhof will also welcome the new headquarters of Allianz Deutschland (60,000 sq m) in 2019 in state-of-the-art office space.
Berlin has established itself as one of the most active investment markets in Europe alongside London and Paris. In 2016, over €5.7 billion was invested into Berlin’s commercial real estate. Prices are becoming increasingly expensive but investors are willing to invest in the market in view of its growth potential. Of the European city markets monitored by Knight Frank, Berlin witnessed the strongest growth in 2016, with prime office rents rising 25% to end the year at €30 per sq m per month. Rents will continue their upward trajectory as demand continues to strengthen, underpinned by public sector and new company relocations into Berlin, and expansionary activity within the creative and tech sector.
4.1% 850k (sq m)
€30.00 3.50%
Vacancy rate fell to
Annual take-up totalled
Prime rents increased to
per sq m
Prime yields compressed to
BERLIN2016 KEY INDICATORS
“ The occupational market in Berlin remains extremely robust and new developments are achieving ever increasing levels of pre-lettings. Limited office development activity has enabled landlords of existing buildings to achieve higher rents and prime rents have risen by almost 50% over the last three years.”
OLE SAUER Managing Partner
“ Domestic and international investors continue to show strong interest in the Berlin market, however there is a lack of available product across almost all asset classes – hence yields remain under pressure and prime offices will move towards 3.25-3.50% GIY.”
HANNS-JOACHIM FREDRICH Managing Partner
Media Spree
EuropaCity
Prime East –Friedrichstrasse
City West
Adlershof
Berlin-SchoenfieldAirport
DecentralisedNorth
DecentralisedWest
DecentralisedSouth
DecentralisedEast
Prime West –Kurfuerstendamm
City East
Potsdamer Platz /Leipziger Platz
Media Spree
EuropaCity
Prime East –Friedrichstrasse
City West
Adlershof
Berlin-SchoenfieldAirport
DecentralisedNorth
DecentralisedWest
DecentralisedSouth
DecentralisedEast
Prime West –Kurfuerstendamm
City East
BERLIN
Potsdamer Platz /Leipziger Platz
98
“ In 2016, more occupiers within the Frankfurt market turned their focus to optimising their space utilisation rather than simply extending their existing contracts. The merger or restructure of various German financial sector groups has led to space consolidation in the Frankfurt office market.”
ELVIN DURAKOVIC Managing Partner
“ Frankfurt is currently meeting the return expectations of many investors. The strength of occupier demand combined with a limited development pipeline is encouraging developers and opportunistic investors to explore opportunities in non-core areas with a higher level of risk.”
RALPH SCHONDER Managing Partner
THE GERMANY REPORT 2017 RESEARCH
With Germany’s most unique skyline, Frankfurt boasts an impressive skyscraper landscape. Frankfurt is one of the few European cities with a large cluster of high-rise buildings in its downtown area. The city entered a building boom in 1997, which saw the completion of 11 buildings over 100 metres, and has evolved to become one of the largest financial centres in continental Europe. Frankfurt is host to more than 230 national and international banking institutions, including the European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Deka Bank.
The Brexit decision resonated widely across the UK and the rest of Europe. As the largest financial centre in continental Europe, Frankfurt was handed an opportunity to be one of the main beneficiaries of the political consequences. To date, there has been limited evidence of any Brexit-related effects, although now that the Brexit process has gained further clarity, companies have increasingly begun to review their relocation strategies.
It was reported that Goldman Sachs is considering moving 1,000 London staff to Frankfurt as part of post-Brexit restructuring. The European Banking Authority currently based in London is also reportedly considering Frankfurt for their headquarters. Should they follow through on their option, more companies and agencies are likely to follow suit. Frankfurt’s financial sector, however, faces ongoing challenges. Low interest rates have placed pressure on earnings, and more stringent regulation and supervision is increasing the cost
for banks. Yet despite the consolidation in this sector, Frankfurt continues to attract a growing number of institutions.
Frankfurt’s office market gathered momentum in 2016 as over 530,000 sq m of office space was leased; the strongest volume since the 2007 peak. Prime rents in Frankfurt have remained stable over the past year, however, they still continue to be the highest in Germany. At 9.1%, its vacancy rate is also one of the highest, but historically, vacancy is at its lowest in over a decade. Vacancies are predominantly concentrated in the peripheral areas and represent secondary grade space, while availability in central areas is limited and modern office stock scarce, constraining occupier choice. Over the next three years, a sizeable development pipeline in the central area will be welcomed by occupiers, and is to be delivered across a number of schemes.
As Germany’s main financial centre, Frankfurt has been a particularly attractive destination for investment capital. Around €4.7 billion was invested into Frankfurt’s commercial property last year, and despite a restricted availability of office investment stock, the office sector attracted €3.3 billion in capital. Frankfurt’s prime office yields are higher than Berlin, Munich and Hamburg and this is due to ongoing investor concern over Frankfurt’s financial sector. That said, the city has been attracting a growing volume of cross-border capital in recent years. Institutional investors from the US and pension funds from South Korea have been the primary protagonists in pursuit of Frankfurt’s landmark buildings, while UK equity funds and French fund managers have also featured prominently in recent times.
9.1% 530k (sq m)
€38.50 4.00%
Vacancy rate fell to
Annual take-up totalled
Prime rents remained stable at
per sq m
Prime yields compressed to
FRANKFURT3.4% 1.4m
(sq ft)£115
per sq ft
A648
A66
A661
A5
West
City-WestWestend East
Sachsenhausen/South
Niederrad
KaiserleiBahnhofs-viertel
Banken-viertel
Westhafen
Innen-stadt Messe/
Europaviertel
Eschborn North
Merton-viertel
Submarkets Rental range (€/sq m/month)
Bahnhofsviertel 9.00 - 19.50
Bankenviertel 17.50 - 38.50
City-West 10.00 - 18,50
Eschborn 8.50 - 15.00
Innenstadt 12.00 - 36.50
Kaiserlei 8.50 - 12.00
Mertonviertel 10.00 - 13.00
Messe / Europaviertel 15.00 - 32.50
Submarkets Rental range (€/sq m/month)
Niederrad 9.00 - 15.50
North 8.00 - 13.00
East 8.00 - 16.00
Sachsenhausen / South 10.00 - 18.00
West 8.50 - 16.00
Westend 13.50 - 38.00
Westhafen 18.50 - 27.00
2016 KEY INDICATORS
1110
“ A lack of speculative development and low completions within the inner-city is forcing occupiers to extend their search to more peripheral sub-markets.”
DANIEL CZIBULAS Managing Director, Agency
“ Prime office yields in Munich remain the lowest in Germany currently standing at 3.30% (GIY) for core office investments. Due to the lack of supply and strong demand from domestic and international investors further yield compression is anticipated in 2017.”
SEBASTIAN WIEDMANN Director, Capital Markets
THE GERMANY REPORT 2017 RESEARCH
A92
A99
A94
A8
A995
A95
A96
A8
A9
OutsideMittlerer Ring West
Suburbs North
OutsideMittlerer Ring South
Randgemeinde –Suburbs South
Randgemeinde –Suburbs East
Randgemeinde –Suburbs West
M
I
C
H
AD
JG
E
K
P
N
B
F
L
O
Q
R
S
T
OutsideMittlerer Ring North
OutsideMittlerer Ring East
Arabellapark
Parkstadt Schwabing
TheresienhöheCity Centre
BogenhausenArnulfpark
Grünwald
Riem
Submarkets
City centre
Bogenhausen
Theresienhöhe
Arnulfpark
Parkstadt Schwabing
Arabellapark
Innerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring Nord/north
Innerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring Ost/east
Innerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring Süd/south
Innerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring West/west
Submarkets Rental range (€/sq m/month)
A City Centre 23.50 - 36.00
B Bogenhausen 13.50 - 28.00
C Theresienhöhe 15.00 - 20.00
D Arnulfpark 20.00 - 25.50
E Parkstadt Schwabing 15.00 - 23.00
F Arabellapark 13.50 - 18.50
GInnerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring North
17.00 - 28.00
HInnerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring East
12.00 - 23.00
IInnerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring South
12.50 - 16.50
JInnerhalb – inside Mittlerer Ring West
13.00 - 21.50
Submarkets Rental range (€/sq m/month)
K Outside Mittlerer Ring North 11.00 - 17.50
L Outside Mittlerer Ring East 9.50 - 15.00
M Outside Mittlerer Ring South 10.50 - 16.00
N Outside Mittlerer Ring West 9.50 - 23.50
O Riem 12.50 - 15.00
P Suburbs North 7.00 - 13.00
QRandgemeinde – Suburbs East
7.00 - 13.50
RRandgemeinde – Suburbs South
8.00 - 13.50
SRandgemeinde – Suburbs West
7.00 - 15.00
T Grünwald 14.00 - 26.00
Munich is Germany’s third largest city after Hamburg and Berlin, and one of the fastest growing metropolises in the country. Around 30,000 jobs are created each year, making it the second largest employment hub. The city has an unemployment rate of just 2.6% – the lowest in Germany. Among the German cities, Munich has the strongest economy and highest purchasing power. About 90 of the 1,000 largest companies based in Germany are headquartered in Munich, including global corporations such as Allianz, BMW, Linde, Munich Re and Siemens.
Over recent years, Munich’s office landscape has expanded, and with over 22 million sq m of stock, it is Germany’s largest office market and Europe’s third largest. The city draws attention from investors and developers alike, afforded by its financial stability and future growth prospects. Parallel to Berlin and Frankfurt, Munich’s occupational market witnessed one of its strongest years on record in 2016, as around 780,000 sq m of office space was leased. Consulting firms, IT companies and manufacturers were the most active industry sectors. Take-up in Munich has been fairly consistent over the years and less impacted by demand volatility due to its diverse occupier base.
The locational preferences of occupiers have tended to favour submarkets in the inner city region. In fact, many of the inner city submarkets have witnessed supply shortages, with demand outstripping supply, and resulting in extremely low vacancy of 3.1%. This supply-demand imbalance has placed landlords in a strong competitive position and incentives have fallen accordingly.
But as development sites in the city centre have become scarce, an increasing number of occupiers have expanded their search criteria to consider options in peripheral areas, leading to significantly higher take-up, particularly outside of the main ring road.
Munich’s development pipeline is the most sizeable of the German cities. The Werksviertel district continues to provide considerable potential for new development, with recent completions including WERK 3 and Highrise One, and ATLAS currently under construction. Despite new development, supply shortages will persist and the Munich market will continue to favour landlords, with rents continuing to rise moderately.
Munich was the second top German destination for commercial property investment during 2016 as €5.5 billion was invested into its commercial real estate. Office assets have dominated the total transaction volume, with nearly €4.0 billion deployed into this sector alone last year. Open-ended and special funds were the primary protagonists, while project developers and insurance companies were also key investors.
Munich’s office market has not been exposed to the degree of yield compression seen in other German cities because of its already low yields. Yet it remains the most expensive market. Gross initial yields for prime office buildings have fallen to 3.30%, while for mixed-use CBD buildings; yields are even lower at 2.90%. As strong appetite continues to prevail, intense competition for prime assets in Munich will lead to further yield compression.
3.1% 780k (sq m)
€36.00 3.30%
Vacancy rate fell to
Annual take-up totalled
Prime rents increased to
per sq m
Prime yields compressed to
MUNICH2016 KEY INDICATORS
Important Notice© Knight Frank LLP 2017 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.
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COMMERCIAL BRIEFING
COMMERCIAL RESEARCH
Vivienne Bolla Senior Analyst, International Research +44 20 7629 8171 vivienne.bolla@knightfrank.com
GERMAN DESK - LONDON
Joachim von Radecke Partner +44 20 7629 8171 joachim.radecke@knightfrank.com
BERLIN
Ole SauerManaging Partner+49 30 232574 380ole.sauer@knightfrank.com
FRANKFURT
Elvin DurakovicManaging Partner+49 69 556633 66elvin.durakovic@de.knightfrank.com
MUNICH
Daniel CzibulasManaging Director, Agency+49 89 83 93 12 122daniel.czibulas@knightfrank.com