Post on 20-Jul-2020
UCS Approach for Strengthening the
Renewable Targets in EPA’s Clean Power Plan
October 2014 1
Key Takeaways • EPA’s renewable targets are modest
• UCS approach improves on EPA’s methodology by building off demonstrated success of leading states
• UCS approach leads to more renewables and CO2 reductions in every region and nearly every state – ~40% national CO2
reduction below 2005 levels
• Defensible and affordable approach for achieving BSER – Minimal effect on electricity prices & lower natural gas prices
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Power plants are the largest source of U.S. heat-trapping emissions
• 40% of CO2 emissions
• 32% of total GHG emissions
• A major source of mercury, SO2, NOx, particulates, lead...
Impacts of climate change are here… and likely to worsen
- Improve coal unit heat rate by 6%
NGCC Boiler - Re-dispatch coal to natural gas - Increase average NGCC utilization to 70%
- Achieve average regional renewable growth targets
- Avoid retirement of 6% nuclear fleet - Complete new nuclear in construction
- Annual incremental electricity savings rate of 1.5 percent
Best System of Emission Reduction (BSER) Based on 4 Building Blocks
BASELINE EMISSION RATE = (fossil emissions)baseline
(fossil generation)baseline + (RE + Nuc)baseline
(coal + oil/gas + NGCC + other)baseline
(coal + oil/gas + NGCC + other)baseline + (RE + Nuc)baseline
=
emissions (lbs. CO2)
generation (MWh)
2030 STATE GOAL = re-dispatched fossil CO2 emissions
baseline fossil generation + clean energy goal + EE goal
emissions (lbs. CO2)
generation (MWh)
Adjusted Output-Weighted Average CO2 Emission Rates in Lbs CO2/MWh
EPA Proposed Approach Regional Renewables RPS Target
21%
15%
20% 10%
25%
16%
7 7
EPA’s National Renewables Targets Are Modest
9% 10%
7%
12%
8%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2020 2030
% o
f E
lect
rici
ty S
ale
s
EIA Business as Usual
EPA Proposed Approach
EPA Alternative Approach*
8 *excluding existing hydro
2030 targets in 7 states below 2013 generation levels
2030 targets in 17 states below requirements under existing RES laws
Renewable electricity standard
EPA target below RES requirement
Demonstrated Renewables Growth Approach
• Calculated national benchmark renewables growth rate of 1% of electricity sales/year from 2009-2013
• States below benchmark ramp-up to 1% by 2020
• States at or above benchmark grow at their 5-year average growth rate up to a maximum rate 1.5%
• In each year, states achieve greater of growth rate approach or required RPS target
• Renewables capped at 40% of electricity sales per state
• Added 2013 renewable generation from EIA, distributed PV, and wind & utility solar under construction from 2014-2016
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UCS vs. EPA National Renewables Targets
9% 10%
7%
12%
14%
23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2020 2030
% o
f E
lect
rici
ty S
ale
s
EIA Business as Usual
EPA Proposed Approach
UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach
12 *excluding existing hydro
UCS Approach Leads to More Renewables in Every Region (renewable % of electricity sales in 2030)
16% 14%
31%
EPA Proposed Approach
UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach
17% 27%
7% 14%
14% 20%
9%
24% 16%
24%
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UCS Approach Requires Only Small Fraction of Renewable Resources Available in Each Region
0.2%
0.2%
0.2% 0.5%
2.2%
1.6%
Regional Targets from UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach in 2030 as % of RE Technical Potential
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Average Consumer Electricity Price (2013c/kWh)
ReEDS Business as Usual UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach
maximum 0.3% increase in 2026
UCS Renewable Energy Targets are Affordable
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Average Power Sector Natural Gas Price (2013$/million BTU)
9% reduction by 2030
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Po
we
r Se
cto
r C
O2 E
mis
sio
ns
(m
illio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s)
2005 Emissions
EPA Modeling of CPP (30% below 2005 levels)
Additional Reductions, UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach
More Renewables Deliver Greater Carbon Reductions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Po
we
r Se
cto
r C
O2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mill
ion
me
tric
to
ns)
2005 Emissions
EPA Modeling of CPP (30% below 2005 levels)
Additonal Reductions, UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach
NRC Carbon Budget
Deeper Cuts are Needed to Address Climate Change
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
EPA Proposed Approach Renewables Generation (GWh)
Solar Thermal Solar PV Landfill Gas Biomass Geothermal Wind
UCS Approach Results in More Wind and Solar PV
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
UCS Approach Renewables Generation (GWh)
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UCS 2030 Demonstrated Growth Approach Sensitivity Analysis
22.9%
20.3%
22.3% 21.9% 23.1% 23.3%
25.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% o
f E
lect
rici
ty S
ales
UCS Proposed Demonstrated REGrowth Approach
No RES Constraint
1% Growth Rate for All States
RE Generation Capped at 33% ofElectricity Sales
No Maximum Cap on State GrowthRate
No Cap on RE Genereration
No Cap on State Grow Rate or REGeneration
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Recommendations
• EPA should expand the role of renewables in establishing state emissions rate reduction targets
• EPA should review and strengthen state emissions reduction and renewables targets by 2025
• States and the EPA should implement measures to prevent double counting of renewables
• States should prepare to develop and implement strong compliance plans
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For More Information
Contact: Megan Rising mrising@ucsusa.org
More Details and Link to Report:
www.ucsusa.org/renewablesandcleanpowerplan
Blogs: http://blog.ucsusa.org/epa-clean-power-plan-we-must-do-better-we-can-do-
better-683 http://blog.ucsusa.org/epa-clean-power-plan-underestimates-power-of-
renewable-energy-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-682
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