Post on 06-May-2015
description
Energy seams not to be a problem ...
Is it really so ?
Miguel Prado The Netherlands, October 2008
The Energy Problem
The world is big ...
but not infinite ...
Let’s have a look in our world ...
and try to quantify what is happening ...
We need a unit ...
to measure how much resources we use ...
Super TankerTI Europe
Cargo Capacity: 500.000 m3
430.000 t
The biggest ship in the world ...
380 m
How big is our planet ?
SurfacePerimeter
22600 km
30% Land
70% Water
40000 km
How many are we ?
= ?
2.5 billion
6.7 billion
9.2 billion (estimate)
1950 2007 2050Source: UN
How much land for each person ?
= ?
1950 2007 2050
240 m
150 m
125 m (estimate)
Source: UN; US CENSUS
And for different countries ?
= ?
(2007)
Source: UN; US CENSUS
BR USA CN DEIN NL
1300 million
1100 million
82 million 16.4
million
300 million 195
million
36 % World Pop.
And for different countries ? (2007)
Source: UN; US CENSUS
BR USA CN DEIN NL
209 m
174 m
84 m
51 m 65 m 45
m
= ?
How much energy needs the human body to live ?
Man
Woman
2500 kcal/day 120 W 2000 kcal/day 100 W
Source: FAO – Human Energy Requeriments 2001
Child 1000 kcal/day 50 W(2-3 years)
And all human population ?
670.000 MW
(2007)
100 W
14.000 MW Itaipu Power Plant (Brazil)
48 x
100 W
How much food is it ?
9 x / day
(2007)
Rice 4 million t/day
0.6 kg/day
23 x / day
(2007)
Food 10 million t/day
1.5 kg/day
Source: FAO - FAOSTAT
But how much energy do we use ?
16.000.000 MW (WEC)
1 kW
2 kW
(2007)
2400 W
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008; IEA – WEO 200614.000 MW Itaipu Power Plant
(Brazil)
1143 x
How do we spend it ?
Transportation ...
Industry ...
Electricity Production ...
( Nuclear Power Plant ) ( Coal Power Plant )
At home ...
Food Production ...
Food Processing and Distribution ...
Fresh Water Production...
Where does the energy come from ?
(2007)
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008; IEA – WEO 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Trad. Biomas
s
GeothermalSolar,
Wind, etc...
(mill
ions
MW
)
33.0 %
22.0 %
26.5 %
5.2 %
2.3 %
10.0 %
1.0 %
Fossil fuels
13 % - Renewable
Nuclear fuel
82 %5 %
13 %
87 % Non - Renewable
Is it the same all over the world ?
14%79%
7%
100% - World 4% - Sub Saharan Africa
1%
63%36%83%
11%
6%
52% - OECD(N. America, Europe,Japan, Australia,...)
(2001)
Source: UN – WEA 2004
How much non-renewable fuels do we use ?
Oil
25 x / day
(2007)
10.8 million t/day
1.6 kg/day
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008
Natural Gas
27 x / day
(2007)
6.4 million t/day
(if liquid)
1.0 kg/day
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008
Coal
41 x / day
(2007)
17.7 million t/day
2.6 kg/day
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008
Uranium (U)
(2007)
67000 t/year
10 g/year
1 x / 6.4 year
Source: Energy Watch Group – Paper 01/2006
Try to imagine ...
93 x / day
23 x / day
(2007)
In one word ...
100 W 2100 W
1.6 kg/day
1.0 kg/day
2.6 kg/day
10 g/year
1.5 kg/day
(2007)
Grand total of non-renewable energy ...
10.2 kW
2100 W
14.000.000 MW87%WEC
(2007)
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008
BR USA CN
0.9 kW 1.8 kW
4.9 kW
7.4 kW
DEIN NL
0.4 kW
If
10.2 kW
3400 W
23.000.000 MW144 %WEC
BR USA CN
0.9 kW
4.9 kW 4.9 kW
7.4 kW
DEIN NL
4.9 kW
= = ...
10.2 kW
5400 W
36.000.000 MW225 %WEC
BR USA CN
0.9 kW
10.2 kW
4.9 kW
7.4 kW
DEIN NL
10.2 kW
If = = ...
10.2 kW
10200 W
68.000.000 MW425 %WEC
BR USA CN
10.2 kW 10.2 kW 10.2 kW 10.2 kW
DEIN NL
10.2 kW
If = ...
What about our reserves ?
Official Proved Reserves at constant production ...
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008; Energy Watch Group – Paper 01/2006
43 year
60 year
131 year
80 year
+ + + = Total
76 year
(2007)
26 year37 year
80 year
49 year
+ + + = Total
47 year
If = = ...
16 year23 year
51 year
31 year
+ + + = Total
30 year
If = = ...
9 year 12 year
27 year
16 year
+ + + = Total
16 year
If = ...
=
In one word ...
time (year)
Power (TW)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
= =
= =
87% WEC (2007)
NO...
If we keep our total consumption constant, do we still have 76 years without worries?
1) It requires an huge investment to switch of energy source ...
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
time (year)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1300
2) It’s not possible to keep constant production until resource exhaustion ...
An example of future energy mix ...
Source: Hoffert et al., “Energy Implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content”, Nature 395, 1998
Some fundamentals of non-renewable resources ...
time
P Q
time
URR
Conventional Oil
IPR: 9000 Gb
URR: 2300 Gb (95%), 3000 (50%), 3900 (5%)
PR: 1200-1300 Gb
Technology: ----
Source: EIA – International Energy Outllok 2008; USGS 2000; BP – Statistical Review 2008
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
( G
b )
World Oil production and URR estimates ...
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008; USGS 2000; Salvador 2005; EIA 2005; Laherrere 2005; Hirsch 2006
5%
95%
50%
USGS 2000
The Hubbert Curve ...
time
P Q
time
URR
P
Q
P/Q
QURR
Ploting against Q gives simpler curves ...
or
URR
Let’s have a closer look at our smallest resource ... Oil ...
And see how the theory fits ...
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
50
100
150
200
250
0 50 100 150 200 2500
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 50 100 150 200 2500
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
USA ...
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
URRURR
URR
Source: EIA – U.S. Crude Oil Field Production 2008
Romania ...
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb ) URRURR
URR
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008; Laherrere - ASPO Lisbon 2005
Indonesia ...
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.7
0.7
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
URRURR
URR
Source: OPEC – Annual Statistical Bulletin 2007
UK ...
1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1.2
1.2
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
0.35
URRURR
URR
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008
Norway ...
1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.201.4
1.4
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb ) URRURR
URR
Source: BP - Statistical Review 2008
Iraq ... disturbing political factors ...
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
50
100
150
0 50 100 1500
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 50 100 1500
0.05
0.1
0.151.4
1.4
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb ) URRURR
URR
Source: OPEC – Annual Statistical Bulletin 2007
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
0.05
0.1
Saudi Arabia ... The biggest oil producer ...
0.15
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb ) URRURR
URR
Source: OPEC – Annual Statistical Bulletin 2007
World ...
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Peak 2010
95%
URR
50% 5% 95%
URR
50% 5%
5%
50%
95%
URR
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
Source: BP – Statistical Review 2008; The Oil Drum – world_production1860_2004.gif
World ... different future trends ...
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 1000 2000 3000 40000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1000 2000 3000 40000
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
Peak 2010-2018-2026-2032 5%
50%
95%
95%
URR
50% 5% 95%
URR
50% 5%
URR
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 1000 2000 3000 40000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1000 2000 3000 40000
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
Peak 2010-2012-2013-2013
World ... keeping initial trend a bit longer ...
95%
URR
50% 5% 95%
URR
50% 5%
5%
50%
95%
URR
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
20
40
60
80
100
120
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 1000 2000 3000 40000
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 1000 2000 3000 40000
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
P (
Gb
/year
)P (
Gb
/year
)
Q (
Gb
)P/Q
( y
ear
-1 )
Q ( Gb )Q ( Gb )
World ... keeping constant growth ...
0%
1%
2%
3%
95%
URR
50% 5% 95%
URR
50% 5%
5%
50%
95%
URR
What are the predictions for World Oil Peak ?
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
2140
2160
2180
World Oil Peak Year Predictions ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005; ASPO 2005
Let’s have a closer look at some predictions ...
Some say: “ It already happened in 2006 ! “
Source: ?
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201016
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
( G
b/y
ear
)
Some say: “In a few years ...”
Source: ASPO
Others say: “Some decades ... ”
EIA predictions ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005
EIA predictions ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005
EIA predictions ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005
EIA predictions ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005
Are there other fossil fuel reserves ?
Tar Sands (80% in Canada)
Heavy Oil (90% in Venezuela)
Oil Shale (mainly USA)
Yes ... Non-conventional Oil ...
IPR: 2370 Gb
URR: 710-1420 Gb (30%-60%)
PR: 170 Gb
Technology: Energy Demanding and High Environmental Costs
IPR: 1360 Gb
URR: 410-820 Gb (30%-60%)
PR: ?
Technology: Energy Demanding and High Environmental Costs
IPR: ?
URR: ?
PR: ?
Technology: Not likely to exist in the next decades ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005
The Tar Sands in Canada ...
Source: Issacs, E., “Canadian Oil Sands: Development and Future Outlook”, IV International Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion, May, 2005
20% 80%
Tar Sands Canada: Steam injection ...
Source: Issacs, E., “Canadian Oil Sands: Development and Future Outlook”, IV International Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion, May, 2005
Tar Sands Canada: Steam injection ...
Source: Issacs, E., “Canadian Oil Sands: Development and Future Outlook”, IV International Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion, May, 2005
Tar Sands Canada: Surface Minning ...
Tar Sands Canada: Surface Minning ...
Tar Sands Canada: Surface Minning ...
Tar Sands Canada: Surface Minning ...
Tar Sands Canada: Surface Minning ...
What about other nuclear fuel reserves ?
Thorium
Deuterium
Current World Energy Supply: a few millions years
Technology: Nuclear Fusion, still at research stage (see ITER project)
Radioactive Waste: None
Current World Energy Supply: a few thousands years
Technology: Some protoype plants builded, but still needs development.
Radioactive Waste: Less than Uranium
Source: IAEA, “Thorium Fuel Cycle – Potential benefits and challenges”, May, 2005; ????????????????
Uranium & Nuclear WasteCurrent World Energy Supply: a few thousands years
Technology: Breeder Reactors can extract 100 times more energy. Still needs development.
Radioactive Waste: Less than normal fission of Uranium
Does our planet have other sources of energy ?
Solar
Tidal
Geothermal
Tidal Energy
3.2 million MW(20% of WEC)
0.5 million MW(3% of WEC)
Atmospheric Tides
Ocean Tides
Earth Tides
Geothermal Energy
(2-3 x WEC)
30-44 million MW
Solar Energy
(11000 x WEC)
174 billion MW
What happens to all this Solar Energy ?
(3300 x WEC)
30%
100%
30% is reflected ...
70% absorbed and reradiated back to space...
(7700 x WEC)
70%
Infrared
100%
(3300 x WEC)
100%
The balance of the solar energy flux ...
(7700 x WEC)
70%
30%
The absorbed Solar Energy before leaving ...
HydropowerWindOcean
Waves and Currents
Oceanic Biomass Terrestrial Biomass
In old civilizations, the Sun meant “Source of life” ...
Inti Aten(Inca) (Egyptian)
Today it seams to mean only “good weather” ...
How does Life gets its energy ?
At the Land ...
In the Ocean ...
And deep in the Ocean ?
Life also uses energy for heating ...
How humans get 87% of theirs energy ?
In one word ...
0.87
0.13
7700
Are we able to join our planet ?
7700
0.87
0.13
We have intelligence for this ...
TSAR Bomb = 10 x WW II
CERN LHC – proton at 99.999999% c
Maybe it’s time for us to change ...
Maybe ...
Maybe ...
Maybe ...
Maybe ...
Maybe ...
Maybe ...
Maybe we could also save energy ...
At home ...
With our transportation ...
Not throwing food away ...
Maybe instead of doing this ...
Energy Materials
Waste
We could do like Nature ...
Maybe then our planet would say ...
Thank you !
References ...
Tidal Energy ...“Abyssal recipes II: Energetics of tidal wind mixing“ W. Munk, C. Wunsch Deep-Sea Research, Part I, Vol. 45, pp. 1977-2010 1998
“Dissipation of tidal energy, paleotides and the evolution of the Earth-Moon system“ B. A. Kagan, J. Suendermann Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 38, pp. 179-266 1996
“Once again: once again – tidal friction“ W. Munk Progress in Oceangraphy, Vol. 40, pp. 7-35 1997
“Tide distribution and tapping into tidal energy“ Z. Kowalik Oceanologia, Vol. 46, 3, pp. 291-331 ( www.iopan.gda.pl/oceanologia ) 2004
Geothermal Energy ...“Earth’s Heat flux revisited and linked to chemistry“ A. M. Hofmeister, R. E. Criss Tectonophysics, Vol. 395, pp. 159-177 2005
“Heat flow from the Earth’s interior: Analysis of the global data set“ H. N. Pollack, S. J. Hurter, J.R. Johnson Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 31, 3, pp. 267-280 1993
“What is Geothermal Energy ?“ M. H. Dickson, M. Fanelli International Geothermal Association ( www.geothermal-energy.org ) 2004
Solar Energy ...Wikipedia – Solar Power ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power )
Wikipedia – Earth’s Energy Budget ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_energy_budget )
NASA ( eosweb.larc.nasa.gov )
Wikipedia – Solar Radiation ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation )
“Here comes the Sun” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLHBFyfvK8A ) Backlight, VPRO International, The Netherlands, Oct. 2008
Other Renewable Energies ...
www.ted.com/index.php/talks/david_gallo_on_life_in_the_deep_oceans.html
www.ted.com/index.php/talks/robert_ballard_on_exploring_the_oceans.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea
Food ...
www.wikipedia.com
World energy resources and consumption
Food and Agriculture Organization ( www.fao.org )
Wikipedia - Food ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food )
World Food Program ( www.wfp.org )
Petroleum
Waste & Resources Action Programme ( www.wrap.org.uk )
Oil Reserves
“Avoid Wasting Food” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ai4FYKwRTKw ) CBS, July, 2008
“Food Miles” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=rca8VkjXw8k ) 2003
“Food Miles Campaign” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ho1Q7sAZsuo ) 2008
“The Future of Food” 1/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=keQpECZkdJA ) 2/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciMsgxogBoc ) 3/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbJ52UPaQ8w ) 4/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-9b2eY5nH8 ) 5/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=a14UtxFBvN4 ) 6/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylqBRwf-aus ) 7/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVxAYSVlzsY ) 8/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAtPtgD8Q7k ) 9/9 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeTP73n-46A ) Deborah Koons Garcia, Lily Films, 2004
Nuclear Energy (websites) ...
World Nuclear Association ( www.world-nuclear.org )
Nuclear Energy Agency ( www.nea.fr )
Nuclear Energy Institute ( www.nei.org )
Wikipedia - Nuclear Power ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power )
Wikipedia - Thorium ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium )
European Fusion Development Agreement ( www.efda.org )
Wikipedia - Deuterium (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deuterium )
International Atomic Energy Agency ( www.iaea.org )
Wikipedia - Integral Fast Reactor ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_Fast_Reactor )
Wikipedia - Uranium( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium )
Wikipedia - Breeder reactor ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor )
Nuclear Energy (papers) ...
Nuclear Energy (videos) ...
“Nuclear Renaissance” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Lkh_y47XaA ) JourneymanTV, Aug. 2007
“ITER – The Way to Fusion Power” 1/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQE-YIzDpQc ) 2/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF7xRYZZ7ME ) European Commission, Aug. 2007
“Nuclear Fusion” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe7mbv7v9Zg ) National Geographic, March 2008
“Nuclear Energy” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcY9MFN5SqU ) AGORA, June 2007
“More Nuclear Energy: Why America needs it now” 1/1 ( fora.tv/2007/09/13/More_Nuclear_Energy_Why_America_Needs_it_Now ) Frank Bowman, The Commonwealth Club, USA, Sept. 2007
“Nuclear Fusion” 1/1 ( video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8817177531080616947 ) Horizon, BBC, Aug. 2007
“Why neither party promote Nuclear Power” 1/1 ( fora.tv/2008/01/28/The_Case_for_Terrestrial_aka_Nuclear_Energy ) William Tucker, Hillsdale College, USA, Jan. 2008
Wikipedia - Heavy Crude Oil ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_crude_oil )
Oil Shale & Tar Sands PEIR ( ostseis.anl.gov )
Wikipedia - Tar Sands ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_Sands )
Non-conventional Oil ...
Pembina Institute ( www.oilsandswatch.org )
Alberta’s Oil Sands ( oilsands.alberta.ca )
Alberta Energy Departament ( www.energy.gov.ab.ca/oilsands/954.asp )
Wikipedia - Oil Shale ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Shale )
“Oil Change” 1/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHwfQXv_Tus ) 2/2 (www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMoL3Ak2b-Y )2008
Wikipedia - Non-conventional_oil ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-conventional_oil )
Tar Sands Canada (videos) ...
Youtube - Alberta oil sands ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ro0LWXPlTSA )Youtube - Discover Canada's devastating oil sands ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcluUYlWxUc )Youtube - Alberta Oil Sands featured on "60 Minutes“ ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYML36YbXo8 )
Youtube - People & Power - Alberta's Oil Sands - 12 Mar 08 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eucr370Oz60 )
Youtube - National Geographic: Megastructures - Alberta Oil Sands ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYwHR9yb0IM )
The Guardian – This is the dirtiest oil in the world ( www.guardian.co.uk/environment/video/2008/jul/11/canada.oil )
Youtube - Sands Oil ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQyRx8M9BZo )
Energy ...
World EnergyIEA ( www.iea.org )
BP ( www.bp.com )
United Nations ( www.undp.org/energy )
Energy Information Agency ( www.eia.doe.gov )
Energy Watch Group ( www.energywatchgroup.org )
WEC ( www.worldenergy.org )
Worldwatch Institute ( www.worldwatch.org )
Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st century ( www.ren21.net )
OPEC ( www.opec.org )
“The Story of Stuff” 1/1 ( www.storyofstuff.com ) Annie Leonard, Tides Foundation & Funders Workgroup for Sustainable Production and Consumption
Sustainability ...
“Waste = Food” 1/1 ( www.vpro.nl/programma/tegenlicht/afleveringen/36632706 ) or ( video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3058533428492266222 ) Backlight, VPRO International, The Netherlands, 2006“The Next Industrial Revolution” 1/1 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=MoO_DwW4nDs ) Shelley Morhaim, Earthome Productions, USA, 2001
“Cradle to Cradle” 1/1 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=IoRjz8iTVoo ) William McDonough, TED, USA, Feb. 2005
Worldwatch Institute ( www.worldwatch.org )
“Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLlGkxPIlNg ) Lester R. Brown, Berkeley Institute of the Environment, USA, Aug. 2007
US Census ( www.census.gov/ipc/www )
United Nations ( esa.un.org/unpp )
CIA ( www.cia.gov/library/publications )
Demography ...
Peak Oil ...
Association for Study of Peak Oil ( www.peakoil.net )
( www.aspo-usa.com )
( www.aspo-ireland.org )
www.planetforlife.com
www.theviewfromthepeak.net
Wikipedia - Peak Oil ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil )
www.oilcrisis.com
“The End of Cheap Conventional Oil”
Zagar, J., Campbell, C. J.,
Zagar, J., Campbell, C. J.,
www.wikipedia.com
World energy resources and consumption
Earth’s energy budget
( www.hubbertpeak.com )
No Peak Oil ( www.the7thfire.com/peak_oil/ending_debate_on_peak_oil.htm )
Global Public Media ( www.globalpublicmedia.org )
ODAC ( www.odac-info.org )
The Oil Drum ( www.theoildrum.com )
Energy Bulletin ( www.energybulletin.net )
Videos:
“1958 - Global Warming – It’s not newly known” ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lgzz-L7GFg ) The Unchained Goddess, USA Television, 1958
“Yergin and Hubbert on the same side US Govt video 1979” ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ez9TRtXu8rQ ) USA Television, 1979
“1976 Hubbert Peak” ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY ) USA Television, 1976
History repeating itself ...“When the Circuit Breaks ... America Energy Crisis”
1/3 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAhJQlLKWX0 ) 2/3 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3DJXoPtzTQ ) 3/3 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=USki7oDh2hk ) Federal Energy Administration, USA Television, 1975
“US Energy Policy” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmBJG_H0PXQ ) President Jimmy Carter, USA Television, 1977
“US Energy Crisis” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABqE0Yl12FY ) President Jimmy Carter, USA Television, 1979
“Relation between Oil and Financial System” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDNMjV6sumQ ) Colin Campbell, Interview, May 2005
“CO2 Emissions in USA” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJpj8UUMTaI ) VULCAN project, Purdue University, USA, March 2008
Peak Oil (Videos) ...
“Peaked” 1/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjX4Nf_wGM ) 2/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sYLFqg2e3I ) People & Power, Aljazeera, Jan. 2008
“Addicted to Oil” 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXUnlcLJzLM ) 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3BR8N409bo ) 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtZESS5EjbI ) 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu1-HtEesPE ) 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=49gZyNvFd9g ) Thomas Friedman Reporting, June 2006
“If The Oil Runs Out” 1/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSQ0KtnaMVc ) 2/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXeXxWSgT_o ) 3/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBL8sx7BS5Y ) 4/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVG4ID-PxMc ) 5/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajFNlEdRzGw ) 6/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo_cwaeXpE4 ) BBC, June 2008
“Energy War” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEF0TQxw7go ) VPRO International, Sept. 2008
Peak Oil (Presentations) ...
“ASPO6 - Session 2” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiBX_S1d-Rg ) George Lee, ASPO 6, Cork, Ireland, Sept. 2007
“Energy” 1/1 ( video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2972578948020708613&ei=Wp0MSaj8HI-o2wKTq73eAw&q=breeder+reactor&hl=en ) Dr. Richard E. Smalley, ResearchChannel, Sep. 2003
“The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil“ 1/1 (video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-596805984521272213&ei=4pAMSZKGOoKw2gKC-uimCg&hl=en ) Colin J. Campbell, ASPO, Ireland, June 2005
“Peak oil meets climate change” 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFaNMmpbuIg ) 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JpDSrROhVY ) 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DCZZkyUBTM ) 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nqDMr12SYo ) 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAS0F5kDhVE ) Jeremy Leggett, Dublin, Ireland, July 2007
“The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle” Presentation Audio ( www.visualcommunications.com/csis/energy/20040224_global_oil.m3u ) Presentation Pdf ( www.csis.org/media/csis/events/040224_simmons.pdf ) Matthew Simmons, CSIS, USA, Feb 2003
“Has Global Oil Production Reached Maximum Capacity” 1/1 ( ia301115.us.archive.org/3/items/dn2006-0428/dn2006-0428-1_64kb.mp3 ) Julian Darley & Michael Lynch, Democracy Now, USA, April 2006
“The Oil Age - Turning Point for Mankind” 1/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLodNEs6TWc ) 2/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-bSUe73iU0 ) 3/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLtMXC2buGo ) 4/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=X89Johntn9w ) Colin J. Campbell, Feb. 2008
“Big Event” 1/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=QncjC-EzRKU ) 2/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ri_Ofl6fFhk ) 3/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbKUoIXMCuE ) 4/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=SW8qCiu4WqQ ) 5/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmEJl9nxq-Q ) 6/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSJ0QnUAues ) Jeremy Leggett, Bristol, UK, Nov. 2007
Peak Oil (Presentations) ...
“World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India insights” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDa81-Fgz8s ) Fatih Birol, IEA, Nov. 2007
“Peak Everything” 1/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRz91eimTg ) 2/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3_mYowxlEg ) 3/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNbVVT2B5iw ) 4/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyO0WS79Xec ) 5/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5EcK-CdLNA ) 6/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJpUswRKwIw ) Richard Heinberg, Orewa, New Zeland, Oct. 2007
“Oil has peaked” 1/1 ( globalpublicmedia.com/former_head_of_saudi_aramco_oil_has_peaked ) Sadad al-Huseini, Global Plubic Media, Oct. 2007
Peak Oil (Presentations) ...
“Congressman Bartlett and Peak Oil Revisited” 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gtkq5DdcgYA ) 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2M-_5oQCik ) 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6hzZ1w-1As ) 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbReYdVOigs ) 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mbm7Fd3E0b4 ) Roscoe Bartlett, U.S. House of Representatives, USA, May 2008
“Out of Gas – The End of the Age of Oil” 1/6 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=3vLZr09kD34 ) 2/6 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=gc7KpDson0w ) 3/6 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=PBZmuKGmy2Q ) 4/6 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=hw_b6a5DHbg ) 5/6 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=aJEGLbjvOhU ) 6/6 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=4n-GyW08920 ) David Goodstein, USA, June 2008
“Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil” 1/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=7lwkyqFB-34 ) 2/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=506-2_zxYns ) 3/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=YyliwrgbLvo ) 4/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=DwEZqOek0KQ ) 5/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=QNYNuGlDXLo ) 6/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=llQIfZXt_88 ) 7/7 ( nl.youtube.com/watch?v=WvAdLvaCx70 ) Roscoe Bartlett, U.S. House of Representatives, USA, April 2008
“Technology Management Program UCSB: Energy Peak Oil” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCGsIN5TWqA ) Matt Simmons, UCSB, USA,Feb. 2008
Peak Oil (Presentations) ...
“Oil and Gas - The Next Meltdown ?” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Hrpv21Ubf8 ) Matthew Simmons, ASPO, USA, Sept. 2008
“Peak Oil and its Effect on Climate Change” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAllmO8hzbQ ) Randy Udall, ASPO, USA, Sept. 2008
“Peak Oil: How soon? How serious?” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7h4VjZhe_w ) Catherine Gautier & Jeffrey J. Brown, UCSB, USA, Sept. 2008
“Making Financial Sense of the Coming Energy Crisis” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLrnMf1GP48 ) Jim Puplava, ASPO, USA, Sept. 2008
Renewable Energy (Presentations) ...
“UC Berkeley Energy Symposium” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMouRbje-js )
“Global Dimensions of Sustainable Energy” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooGkMU8Q3xI ) UC Berkeley, March 2008
“Sustainable Energy Consumption” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8xFHCru9ok ) Davos Open Forum, July 2007
“Forest Products: Part of Sustainable Future” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqzPuA8R8Ws ) Ian de la Roche, UC Berkeley, Oct. 2007
“Energy Crisis and Clean Energy” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z7cdDYP_zg ) Hermann Scheer, MIT Clean Tech, USA, July 2007
“Competing in the Green Economy” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=aA5WUZybVSA ) New America Foundation, May 2008
“Emerging Energy Technologies Summit - 2006” 1/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4tJ5z4yF5E ) 2/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Scu1_bVhu8c ) 3/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpiLUtKha-4 ) 4/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=23R2ObFlZRk ) Technology Managment Program, UCSB, USA,Nov. 2006
“Emerging Energy Technologies Summit - 2007” 1/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQH9vo4Rp1M ) 2/4 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFUzabcfno4 ) 3/4 ( ) 4/4 ( ) Technology Managment Program, UCSB, USA,Nov. 2007
“We must win the oil end game” 1/1 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMTCNOlozTA ) Amory Lovins, TED, Feb. 2005
Renewable Energy (Presentations) ...
- Algae: The World's Most Important Plants
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n5J49Th9c4
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnOSnJJSP5c
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FrbMMwDccY
“Arithmetic, Population & Energy” 1/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDW3JjHztw8 ) 2/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd89DL5WBj4 ) 3/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9pS7DnrUCc ) 4/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1gwYAgABbY ) 5/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlMdrnoIhEA ) 6/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=isQTm15UO4o ) 7/7 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Tx1C8QuDPM ) Dr. Albert Bartlett, Boulder, USA, 1994
“Arithmetic, Population & Energy” 1/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY ) 2/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb3JI8F9LQQ ) 3/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw9IgtjY ) 4/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQd-VGYX3-E ) 5/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHuwgxrTKPo ) 6/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU ) 7/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyseLQVpJEI ) 8/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoiiVnQadwE ) Dr. Albert Bartlett, Boulder, USA, 2002
Exponential Growth (Presentations) ...
Documentaries ...
“The End of Oil” 1/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVwf2XqZ-XE ) 2/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBjkvbBA9J4 ) 3/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=4COkhdAblLo ) 4/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdQDf5eHWYk ) 5/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=fai6sJrKpJg ) 6/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGiubypPReQ ) October, 2007
“Understanding Peak Oil” 1/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmXGSRj8lAc ) 2/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub69CyKSMKQ ) 3/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-1Z4siB_OI ) 4/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUVOuOvlJ3U ) 5/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6qwVHLTZkk ) 6/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=34gUg3achRw ) 7/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiNmpEGHbVQ ) 8/8 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y_oIW3x4bc ) Sept. 2008
“Peak Oil (What the Fighting is All About)” 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QFaUcUdLcM ) 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT7v9cfrVl4 ) 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNYcFITUgHs ) 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0ykKlL9nns ) 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3dnZcCNNNw ) Nov. 2007
Documentaries (Videos) ...“The Epic of Black Gold”
Part I - 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=0awiPDZMedc ) Part I - 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=syKxYOjp1FY ) Part I - 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQaevMaKhc ) Part I - 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tNxxkzWNYI ) Part I - 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=z596w_xBLII ) Part II - 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-p7Xw1Bzlo ) Part II - 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=40CoLcJrzZU ) Part II - 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNKMZXF77AI ) Part II - 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWNQxxaRSig ) Part II - 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZMxn2QHJko ) Part III - 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI-Sgk2K6D8 ) Part III - 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=A81hBT7ZAq8 ) Part III - 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwbBvGQCMVY ) Part III - 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQig5w43sLU ) Part III - 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWV8yU_T2yE ) Part IV - 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2nJdcn3GYQ ) Part IV - 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=HivZ7H6SZDY ) Part IV - 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HO4uZiLrDU ) Part IV - 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg3Hsg1Lnj4 ) Part IV - 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMccGhLqnsY ) Jean-Pierre Beaurenaut & Yves Billon, July 2008
“Peak-oil” 1/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmN9_jGRvHg ) 2/2 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=71Y2yAAHHRw ) Oct. 2007
Documentaries (Videos) ...
“Oil, Smoke & Mirrors” 1/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gH4dSsTOIY ) 2/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1jax6r1rrA ) 3/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlVfp6517Zo ) 4/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=C045gFFETBo ) 5/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuwPh8suVgQ ) 6/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIUmNMmaI-E ) Ronan Doyle, Feb. 2008
“Crude Impact” 1/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1AQsFJxYgA ) 2/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8W4TSplk_g ) 3/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQp_f8zN4II ) 4/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgaBhZmfXWQ ) 5/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5Ku-4xp1JM ) 6/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hpVDNjFPHs ) 7/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xp_8kU5Dyss ) 8/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=md2tsDwtjuY ) 9/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf9PGWVkxok ) 10/10 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCJElpbVYyA ) James Jandak Wood, Aug. 2008
Documentaries (Videos) ...
“China vs The US – The Battle for Oil” 1/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m3c9vvKNgk ) 2/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=THIjlBuCduA ) 3/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS82S-7d6a8 ) 4/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5LA_ybs6Cs ) 5/5 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=gECpTQVUCnI ) Jean-Christophe Klotz, Feb. 2008
“Blood and Oil” 1/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kZFf38xWP0 ) 2/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=URI4YYCHVSE ) 3/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO7cu8vJjko ) 4/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQbVLY7sU-Q ) 5/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn33nLcLTcA ) 6/6 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIzulVpWskU ) Michael T. Klare, Media Education Foundation, 2008
“The End of Suburbia” 1/5 ( www.dailymotion.com/video/x4uxb9_the-end-of-suburbia-fin-du-petrole_news ) 2/5 ( www.dailymotion.com/video/x4uxw4_the-end-of-suburbia-fin-du-petrole_news ) 3/5 ( www.dailymotion.com/video/x4uybb_the-end-of-suburbia-fin-du-petrole_news ) 4/5 ( www.dailymotion.com/video/x4uyog_the-end-of-suburbia-fin-du-petrole_news ) 5/5 ( www.dailymotion.com/video/x4v11p_the-end-of-suburbia-du-petrole-fin_news ) Gregory Green, 2004
Acknowledgments ...
Sept-2008 Via Masculine, Waarland, The Netherlands
Acknowledgments ...
T EA M WORK
Technical University of Delft
The Netherlands
Teamwork Technology BV
The Netherlands
World Wide Web
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Source: ?
The biggest problem ?
ASPO predictions ... (2004)
Source: ASPO 2005
Other predictions ...
Source: EIA – Caruso, G., “When will World Oil Production Peak?”, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, 2005
Oil prices ...
Record: 145 $ July 2008
Oil discovery and production ...
?