Post on 17-Sep-2018
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Relevant Psychological Factors for Behavioral
Adaptation to Climate Change
Ramune Pansa and Andreas Ernst
European Climate Change Adaptation Conference - March 18 - 20, 2013
Hamburg, Germany
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
2
Outline
1) Project
2) Survey and Theory
3) Selected Results
4) Conclusion and Outlook
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
3
Project setup – KUBUS1
Multi-Agent-
Model
Cooperating Research Projects
Discussion,
Evaluation
Identification of
Relevant Topics
Survey of Psych.
Indicators & Processes
Geographically
Differentiated,
Socio-
Demographic
Data
Scenarios
& Simulation
Providing Data
Quantitative
Climate
Scenarios
1 supporting regional adaptation to climate change by socio-scientific surveys, simulation and scenarios
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Aims
• Adaptation requires the willingness to perform climate adaptation behavior
• We are analyzing…
– The perception of climate change and risk perception
– The behavior intention for performing climate adaptation behavior
• Challenges are…
– Experiencing climate change
– Storm, heavy rain, heat waves
– Temporal trap
• Meaning for the empirical survey
– Which variables have an impact on different behavioral intentions?
– Are there differences between lifestyles regarding the willingness to
perform climate adaptation behavior?
4
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Excerpt of the Content of the questionnaires
• Perception of Climate Change
– Which extreme weather conditions and consequences do people primarily associate with climate change?
– Estimated temporal occurrence of extreme weather situations (storm, heat, heavy rain)
• Willingness to perform climate adaptation behavior
– Theory of Planned Behavior – specific behavior asked:
o performing short- and long-term behavior
o relocation
o information seeking
o contract insurance against natural hazards
o neighborly support in general and during heat waves
o car sharing / neighborly car pools for daily commute
• Personal traits/characteristics
– CFC (consideration of future consequences; Strathman et al., 1994)
– Lifestyle (Sinus®)
– Social Demographics
5
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
6
Sample
Pilot
Study
Main Sample
Survey 1 (2010) Survey 2 (2011) Survey 3 (2012)
Sample Size N = 59 (200) N = 446 (2050) N = 446 (2023) N = 485 (2336)
Gender
Distribution
N female = 35 (59%) N female = 249 (56%) N female = 230 (52%) N female = 273 (56%)
N male = 24 (41%) N male = 196 (44%) N male = 211 (48%) N male = 210 (43%)
Mean age 47 (SD = 15.18) 50 (SD = 16.91) 52 (SD = 16.88) 48 (SD = 17.12)
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Extension of the theory of planned behavior1
7
Behaviour
Attitude
Subjective
Norm
Social
Norm
Intention
Behavioral
Control
1 Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211.
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
8
Wea-
ther/
Climate
Comm
uni-
cation/
Obser-
vation
Person / Milieu
Perception of
Climate Change
person itself
closely people
Time Perception
handling uncertainties
Risk Perception
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
What do you associate with climate change in Northern Hesse?
9
1=“strongly disagree“; 2=“disagree”; 3=“disagree more likely than not“; 4=“agree more likely than not“; 5=“agree“; 6=“strongly agree“
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Do you feel strongly affected by climate change in your
region in comparison to other areas? – 3rd survey
10
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rain
Heat
Storm
11
At which point in time do you think, that extreme wheather events
will occur in your region?
Age
1st survey
2nd survey
3rd survey
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rain
Heat
Storm
Year
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
12
Extended TPB – relevant factors for specific adaptation
behavior – 2nd survey
Behavioral
Control
Attitude
Subjective
Norm
Social
Norm
Intention .18
.05
.56
.16
Attitude
Subjective
Norm
Social
Norm
Intention
Behavioral
Control
.25
.52
.22
Attitude
Subjective
Norm
Social
Norm
Intention
Behavioral
Control
.11
.59
.21
Behavioral
Control
Relocation Long-Term Behavior Short-Term Behavior
R2 =.57 R2 =.64 R2 =.75
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
® Sinus Sociovision 2009
10 SINUS® Milieus – 4 Lifestyles
3
2
1
Consumption Materialists
11%
Establisheds 10%
Ground Breakers 8%
Post Materialists 10%
Pleasure Seekers 11%
Modern Mainstream 16%
Modern Performers 9%
Traditionals 14%
6%
Conser- vatives
5%
Higher
Middle
Lower
Social Status
Basic Values
A Tradition
Sense of Duty and Order
C Re-orientation
Multiple Options,
Experimentation, Paradoxes
GDR- Nostal- gia
B Modernization
Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure
13
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
® Sinus Sociovision 2009
10 SINUS® Milieus – 4 Lifestyles
3
2
1
Consumption Materialists
11%
Establisheds 10%
Ground Breakers 8%
Post Materialists 10%
Pleasure Seekers 11%
Modern Mainstream 16%
Modern Performers 9%
Traditionals 14%
6%
Conser- vatives
5%
Higher
Middle
Lower
Social Status
Basic Values
A Tradition
Sense of Duty and Order
C Re-orientation
Multiple Options,
Experimentation, Paradoxes
GDR- Nostal- gia
B Modernization
Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure
14
liberal and intellectual interests
prefer security and orderliness Post-Materialists
Profile: - age = young families- income = middle to high- value “modern” = high- value “conservative” = low- importance “price” = low to middle- importance “environment”= middle to high- importance “peers” = low
Post-Materialists
Profile: - age = young families- income = middle to high- value “modern” = high- value “conservative” = low- importance “price” = low to middle- importance “environment”= middle to high- importance “peers” = low
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
® Sinus Sociovision 2009
10 SINUS® Milieus – 4 Lifestyles
3
2
1
Consumption Materialists
11%
Establisheds 10%
Ground Breakers 8%
Post Materialists 10%
Pleasure Seekers 11%
Modern Mainstream 16%
Modern Performers 9%
Traditionals 14%
6%
Conser- vatives
5%
Higher
Middle
Lower
Social Status
Basic Values
A Tradition
Sense of Duty and Order
C Re-orientation
Multiple Options,
Experimentation, Paradoxes
GDR- Nostal- gia
Leading Lifestyles
B Modernization
Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure
15
liberal and intellectual interests
prefer security and orderliness
Traditionals
Profile: - age = older- income = low- value “modern” = low- value “conservative” = high- importance “price” = middle to high- importance “environment” = low- importance “peers” = middle to high
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
® Sinus Sociovision 2009
10 SINUS® Milieus – 4 Lifestyles
3
2
1
Consumption Materialists
11%
Establisheds 10%
Ground Breakers 8%
Post Materialists 10%
Pleasure Seekers 11%
Modern Mainstream 16%
Modern Performers 9%
Traditionals 14%
6%
Conser- vatives
5%
Higher
Middle
Lower
Social Status
Basic Values
A Tradition
Sense of Duty and Order
C Re-orientation
Multiple Options,
Experimentation, Paradoxes
GDR- Nostal- gia
Traditional Lifestyles
Leading Lifestyles
Mainstream Lifestyles Hedonistic
Lifestyles
B Modernization
Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure
16
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
17
1=“strongly disagree“; 2=“disagree” 3=“disagree more likely than not“; 4=“agree more likely than not“; 5=“agree“; 6=“strongly agree“
Comparison between lifestyles for specific climate adaptation
behavior – 2nd survey
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
18
Conclusion
- Psychological factors are important for adaptation behavior to climate
change
- Perception of the impacts of climate change (in comparison to other
parts of the globe) by the Northern Hesse population is weak
- there are tendencies towards differences in behavioral intention between
lifestyles
Outlook
- implementation of empirical data into the agent based modeling
- data analysis (comparisons between the three surveys)
- qualitative analysis
- project end June 2013