Regional VisioningLand Use and Transportation for

Four Million New Residents

A Presentation to the

New York Metropolitan Transportation Council February 16th, 2006

• National & Regional Growth Trends

• The Land Use-Transportation Connection

• Visioning Around the Nation & the Region

• A Long Island Visioning Initiative

• What’s Next?

Map: University of Pennsylvania

U.S. Population Change 2005- 2050

National Growth Trends

Map: University of Pennsylvania

Metropolitan Growth 2005 – 2050

National Growth Trends

Map: University of Pennsylvania

Emerging U.S. Mega-Regions

70% of Population80% of Job Growth

National Growth Trends

NYMTC Projections

• An additional 3.83 million people to the Tri-State region

• 1.81 million to NYMTC counties

Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

How will the region be able to accommodate this growth at all, much less in a manner that simultaneously achieves economic, environmental and social equity goals?

Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Pre-1960= 0.10 acres/person

1960 to 1990=1.2acres/person

Land consumption per capita has slowed somewhat since 1990, but rapid exurban growth continues

Increasing Land Consumption per Capita :

Pre-1960

1960-90

Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Linking Land Use and Transportation

Revitalized Centers in the Urban Core Around a Robust Transit Network

Access to Commuter Rail Station by Walking Distance

Linking Land Use and Transportation

Tappan ZeeLinking Land Use and Transportation

The design of the transportation infrastructure is directly linked to regional land use decisions.

East Side Access/ LIRR Third TrackLinking Land Use and Transportation

New transportation capacity is critically needed to handle current congestion, but also creates the potential for higher-density development.

Suburban Centers: Nassau Hub

Linking Land Use and Transportation

31 COUNTIES3 STATES10 MPOs695 MUNICIPALITIES1 REGION

Fragmented Governance

A Growing Number of Areas Have Produced Regional Visions To Guide Future Growth

Visioning Around the Nation

• Inclusive, consensus based process• Define regional values and benchmarks for

measuring success• Educate public on connections between

transportation and land use • Develop growth scenarios and corresponding

transportation investments through several public workshops

• Model indicators from each scenario and measure each against regional value benchmarks

• Implement land use changes in targeted locations

Visioning Around the Nation

Define Regional Values and Benchmarks for Measuring Success

• Workshops• Surveys• Polling• Existing Plan Review

Visioning Around the Nation

Develop Growth Scenarios and Corresponding Transportation Investments

Through Several Public Workshops

• Base map accurately depicts conditions on the ground

• Determine where not to grow

• Allocate growth in chosen development scenario

• Determine necessary transportation improvements.

Visioning Around the Nation

Model Indicators From Each Scenario and Measure Each Against Regional Value

Benchmarks

• Each scenario generated at workshops is digitized

• Land use and transportation entered into model

• Indicators relate to values and benchmarks generated in early stages of process

Visioning Around the Nation

470 Hours 386

Hours

Business As

UsualMetropolis Plan

Implement Land Use Changes in Targeted Locations

• Changing zoning and development types in limited municipalities can have drastic effect on regional development patters

• Southern California 2% Solution

Visioning Around the Nation

Lessons from Other Regions

Envision Utah

Lessons from Other Regions

Chicago Metropolis 2020

Lessons from Other Regions

SCAG’s Compass

Los Angeles Compass used the most advanced visualization techniques to convey information to participants

Lessons from Other Regions

Regional Initiatives

Foundations for Visioning in the Region

• History of regional planning

• Existing NYMTC forecasts

• NYMTC sustainable development studies

• Benchmarking projects, such as Long Island Index

• Several community visioning projects

Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Land Use ScenarioPreferred Land Use Scenario

Regional Initiatives: SEEDS

Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Transportation ScenarioPreferred Transportation Scenario

Local Initiatives: SEEDS

Local Initiatives: Stamford

Several secondary and tertiary centers were identified throughout the city that support the downtown core.

Local Initiatives: Stamford

Local Initiatives: Stamford

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Planning Underway

• Business, Political & Civic Planning Group, including county planning departments, LIA, LIRPB, Vision LI, Sustainable LI, RPA, others

• Stakeholders meetings in April and December, 2005

• Analysis of prior and existing plans and vision projects

• Baseline analysis• Development of scenario testing model

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Base Map

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Two Test Scenarios

Large-Lot

Small-Lot

SuburbanAttached

Village Infill Downtown Corridor

CentersOriented 37,500 37,500 13,000 120,000 52,000 120,000

10% 10% 3% 32% 14% 32%

Dispersed 111,000 111,000 100,000 40,000 12,000 6,000

29% 29% 26% 11% 3% 2%

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Long Island Visioning Initiative

• Large Projected Growth to Metropolitan Area

• We Need to Grow Differently and Create New Transportation Capacity

• Public Support Will Dictate our Success

Next Steps for the Region

• Coordinate with NYMTC, other MPOs, planning and transportation agencies

• Launch Long Island initiative

• Begin planning and develop partnerships in other parts of the region

• Complete scenario-testing model

Potential Outcomes

• Political support for new growth strategies

• Greater consensus on the next generation of transportation investments

• Growth in regional centers and transit friendly development

• Conservation of region-shaping landscapes and

estuaries

• Affordable housing programs and strategies

• Governance and tax reforms