Recent Developments in the South China Sea

A PHILIPPINE PERSPECTIVEby Chito Sta. Romana

President, Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS)

ARBITRATION CASE• March 31, 2014: Philippines

submitted Memorial• December 15, 2014: Deadline for

China’s submission of its Memorial• December 16, 2014: Tribunal’s

questions to the Philippines

ARBITRATION CALENDAR• March 16, 2015: Philippines’ answers

to the Tribunal• July 2015: Oral hearings before the

Tribunal• 1st Quarter 2016: Anticipated issuance

of Award(Sources: Paul Reichler, CSIS Conference, July 2014; Robert

Beckman, MIMA Conference, Sept 2014)

WHAT PHILIPPINES SEEKS• Declare China’s claims based on 9-dash-

line as contrary to UNCLOS and invalid• Declare China’s occupation of 4

submerged features as unlawful• Declare Scarborough Shoal & 3 other

reefs China occupies as “rocks” entitled only to 12-mile territorial sea

WHAT PH DOES NOT SEEK• Resolution of sovereignty issue over

disputed islands • Delimitation of maritime boundaries

(exclusive economic zones) • Claims that China excluded from

arbitration: boundary delimination, historic bays or titles, military & law enforcement activities

SECOND THOMAS SHOAL• Flashpoint: Maritime blockade by

China Coast Guard ships• China’s aim: to cut off supplies to

PH marines deployed on grounded vessel & force them to withdraw so China can control over the shoal

MARITIME BLOCKADE

ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS• China is dredging seabed & turning

reefs under its control into “artificial islands”• Reported to be a $5 billion, 10-yr

project, technical feasibility work in Johnson South Reef

(Sources: reports in several websites in China, New York Times & South China Morning Post)

POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS

• Reed Bank: if China moves its oil rig to start exploration work there• Scarborough Shoal: if China

starts dredging work there to turn it into an artificial island