Post on 19-Oct-2014
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Session 2 Effect of the Global economic crisis on the growth and
development of small states
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs
J L Roberts
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Did the Crisis push MDGs off the Global Menu?
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
The MDGs agreed at the UN General Assembly 2000 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerAchieve universal primary educationPromote gender equalityReduce child mortalityImprove maternal healthCombat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseasesEnsure environmental sustainability
Global partnership for development JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
How far have we been thrown off the MDG course by the global financial and economic crisis,
What is the plight of the small and island states, and
How can they best get back on course to re-establish progress?
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Who are the national players in the Crisis?
The Villains: who caused it
The Victims: who were immediately hit
The Innocent bystanders: caught in the debris
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Freedom from Want: the development
Agenda Heads of State or Government are urged to take action in the following areas:
Poverty: to halve, by 2015 the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day From UN secretary General Kofi Annan’s key proposals presented to the Millennium Summit 2000
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
MDGs Missing data 2005 Commonwealth: Downes review: 29% missing data 2006 UNEP :AEO 2 for Africa: for some indicators up to 74%
missing data 2006 SIDS (AIMS region: 11 countries) IOC review: 48% missing
data 2008 Africa on Poverty Kasirim Nuwke: data scarce and
episodic: no analysis done 2009 World Bank data set on Poverty no data for the principal
countries (including UK, France and USA)
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Gaps in MDGs for reviewing Small and
island States
Climate change and sea level rise
Disasters Waste management Coastal and marine Tourism Biodiversity Demographic change
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Macro economic data monthly: latest May 2009
MDGs data yearly:
latest 2007
Population data every ten years updated from births and deaths annually
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Ban Ki Moon to the rescue of MDGs October 2008 SG calls Stiglitz to report on crisis and
MDGs February 2009 UN reports 46m global increase in poverty March 2009 UN reports small states trapped by reduced
remittances May 2009 World Bank reports crisis hitting MDGs June 2009 World Bank reports hits on IMRs and women June 2009 UNESCO reports 20% cut in income of poorest
in Africa
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
MDGs Back on the Menu Big Time?
June 2009 USA Global Poverty Act Obama and Biden propose embracing the Millennium Development Goal to cut extreme poverty in half by the year 2015
June 2009 Impact of MDG paradigm on poverty reduction, DFID et al Brussels
June 2009 UN GA meeting on World Crisis and its Impact
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
UN June 2009 Meeting on World Financial and Economic Crisis and its Impact on Development
Strengthen UN capacity, effectiveness and efficiency
Enhance co-ordination between UN, IFIs and regional IGOs
Improve response of UN agencies to crisis and national vulnerabilities and ownership
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
The 46 UN SIDS have a total population of 55 million (Source UNICEF 20007);
Caribbean SIDS 35 million (64%); AIMS SIDS 11 million (20%) and Pacific SIDS 9 million (16%).
Four States together contain 70% of the total SIDS population
Cuba 21% Dominican Republic 16% Papua New Guinea 10% Singapore 8%
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Selected Small and Island States
StatePopulation millions State
Population millions State
Population millions
Under 1m Population1m but under 4m
Population Over 4m Population
Seychelles 0.1 Mauritius 1.2 Singapore 4.3
St. Lucia 0.2 Guinea-Bissau 1.6 PNG 6.3
Barbados 0.3 Gambia 1.6 Cuba 11.3
Malta 0.4 Botswana 1.9Fiji 0.8 Jamaica 2.7 Total 32.7
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Five of these thirteen states contain 81% of the total population: a common feature of global demography
But the MDG paradigm: Ignores population size Frustrates economic analysis Fails to illuminate resource needs for target pursuit Lacks an evidence base
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
88% of the 1.5m people who remain to be fed to meet the target levels come from just four of the 13 states
400,000 from Guinea-Bissau 346,000 from Papua New Guinea 333,000 from Botswana 256,000 from Gambia
JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
The Task ahead to meet the MDG 4 IMR target
Save 19,000 infant lives each year in the 13 selected States
But note: 93% are in just four countries: 6,386 in Papua New Guinea 4,680 in Guinea-Bissau 3,525 in Botswana 3,050 in Gambia
What technical and other resources are needed for this task? What will it cost? What are the expected results? JLR
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
The Task ahead to meet the Singapore MDG 4 IMR target
Save 17,382 infant lives each year in the 6 selected States
Iceland has achieved its target; can it defend it ?
The target to save infant lives for the other countries is: 13,2006 in the USA 1,510 in France 1,494 in the UK 1,056 in Canada 116 in New Zealand
What technical and other resources are needed for this task?
What will it cost?
What are the expected results?
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Feed-back time Victims or By-standers ? Key impacts on MDGs and SD? Key responses (emergency fiscal packages, new Budgets,
regional programmes, etc)?, Guidelines of best practice? Green accounts? South-south collaboration? Aid or trade?
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
What do the Fiscal polices and Budgets say on MDGs?
Mauritius: Saving jobs and Protecting people (Budget 2009)
Bahamas: International best practice on tax havens (Mid-year Budget 2009)
Barbados: Protect the vulnerable (Budget 2009)
Botswana: Fiscal policy to support economic activity and maintain macro-economic stability (Budget 2009)
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
From the great crisis to the great escape
Re-visit UN 2005 SIDS Mauritius Strategy Flag-ship models for key areas and gaps in MDGs Evidence based policy not policy based evidence Pursue social equity within and between states Seek social welfare outcomes Reform governance, competitiveness, probity
accountability Focus on local action, micro and Islamic finance
Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts
Model for action Re-visit equity Policies for villains, victims and bystanders Resilience to threats: population increase, changing
markets for tourism and commodities More evidence based cost-effective action Better Professional and institutional development More relevant South-south links for technical transfer
Progress with MDGs Goal 7 Target10 Indicator 30: Access to Improved water source 2004 Figure 5
People in SIDS without safe water as percent of total 10m without safe water in 34 SIDS Sources: World Bank 2007, UNICEF 2007
Cape Verde
1%
Comoros
1%
Trinidad & Tobago
1%
Guyana
1%
Solomon Islands
1%
Jamaica
2%
Dominican Republic
4%
Fiji
4%Guinea Bissau
6%
Cuba
9%
Papua New Guinea
32%
Haiti
35%
Haiti Papua New Guinea Cuba Guinea Bissau Fiji Dominican Republic Jamaica
Solomon Islands Guyana Trinidad & Tobago Comoros Cape Verde Vanuatu Maldives
Suriname Sao Tome & Principe Kiribati Belize Samoa Seychelles Bahamas
Marshall Islands Antigua & Barbuda Micronesia Grenada St. Lucia Dominica St Kitts and Nevis
Barbados Cyprus Malta Mauritius Singapore Tonga
Progress with MDGs Goal 4 Target 5 Indicator 14 IMR 2004 and GDP per Capita PPP $ Figure 4
35 SIDS Sources: World Bank 2007, UNDP 2006
M auritiusSeychelles
Trinidad & TobagoGrenadaSt. V & G
FijiJamaica Tonga
BelizeDominican RepublicCape VerdeVanuatu
Solomon
IslesM aldives
GuyanaComoros
St LuciaDominica
HaitiSao Tome & Principe
Papua New Guinea
BarbadosBahrain
Bahamas
M alta Cyprus Singapore
Guinea Bissau
y = 46797x-0,8928
R2 = 0,8319
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
GDP Per Capita PPP $
IMR
200
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