Post on 17-Jan-2016
Rapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentPreparedness, Response, Recovery, Preparedness, Response, Recovery,
and Mitigationand Mitigation
Rapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentPreparedness, Response, Recovery, Preparedness, Response, Recovery,
and Mitigationand Mitigation
WorkshopU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Rockville, Maryland
Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryNovember 15-17, 2005
2
TeamTeamTeamTeam
Gariann Gelston (HERS), Project ManagerGene Whelan (NR), Technical LeadDave Millard (ISE), EMAdvantage Lead Chitra Sivaraman (ISE) Tim Downing (ISE)
Mitch Pelton (HERS), FRAMES Lead Dennis Strenge (HERS) Bonnie Hoopes (HERS)
Tarang Khangaonkar (MSL), EFDC Lead Zhaoqing Yang (MSL) Cheegwan Lee (MSL) Lon Hachmeister (MSL)
Mary Simpson/Joan Young (HERS), DS Lead
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““Multi-Thematic” Modeling SupportersMulti-Thematic” Modeling Supporters““Multi-Thematic” Modeling SupportersMulti-Thematic” Modeling Supporters
1. Engineer Research & Development Center, ACOE
2. National Environmental Research Laboratory, ORD, EPA
3. Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NRC
4. Office of Radiation and Indoor Air, OAR, EPA
5. Office of Environmental Management, DOE
6. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, DOE
7. Multimedia Modeling: $23M ($8M for FRAMES)
8. FEMIS/EMAdvantage: $42M
4
PurposePurposePurposePurpose
Provide an illustrative example that combines a multi-thematic modeling capability with emergency planning & response tools to create an automated system, which provides a real-time linkage between scientific and emergency-response communities.
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IntroductionIntroductionIntroductionIntroduction
1. Preparedness, Response, Recovery, & Mitigationa. Air is commonb. Now easily link soil, surface water, groundwater,
exposure pathway/routes, decision support, etc.c. Integrated Multi-thematic capability, illustrating water
2. Not Vaporwarea. Simulated Sensor Datab. Pre-run 3-D surface water flow and transportc. Real site with real datad. Demonstration of actual software actually running
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PropositionPropositionPropositionProposition
1. Release of an unknown contaminant, unknown strength, unknown location to a water body, where a nearby population is potentially exposed
2. Question: What is the potential impact to the surrounding area, and what response plan do you implement, if the contaminant levels are unacceptable?
3. Operate Status Board Command & Control system linked with “Multi-thematic Modeling” running in the background
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Preparation WorkPreparation WorkPreparation WorkPreparation Work
1. Spatial description of site
2. Sensors
3. Contaminants of Concern (CoC)
4. Exposure scenarios/pathways per zone
5. Fate & Transport Models (Calibrate/Validate)
6. Protective/Response Action Plans
7. Protective Action Thresholds and Recommendations
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Demonstration StepsDemonstration StepsDemonstration StepsDemonstration Steps
1. Operational System2. Status Board notification through sensors3. Incident Identification 4. Surface Water Back Calculation5. Surface Water Transport Forward Calculation6. Risk Impact Analysis7. Post Protective Action Recommendations
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Demonstration Steps Demonstration Steps (cont’d)(cont’d)Demonstration Steps Demonstration Steps (cont’d)(cont’d)
7. Choose and Implement best-fit Protective Action Plan
8. Evaluate differences between Protective Action Recommendations and Final Protective Action Decision
9. Re-evaluate in real-time as the assessment requires
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Relationship Between Incident Characterization and Emergency Response & Recovery
‘STATIC’ GEO-SPATIAL DATA
‘STATIC’ GEO-SPATIAL DATA
SENSOR DATASENSOR DATA
INCIDENTINFORMATION
INCIDENTINFORMATION
WEATHERWEATHER INCIDENTCHARACTERIZATION
HAZARDANALYSIS• Area Affected• Impact Estimates• Times / Durations
CONSEQUENCEASSESSMENT• Population• Critical Infrastructure
INCIDENTCHARACTERIZATION
HAZARDANALYSIS• Area Affected• Impact Estimates• Times / Durations
CONSEQUENCEASSESSMENT• Population• Critical Infrastructure
SITE SPECIFICDATA
SITE SPECIFICDATA
PRODUCTSPRODUCTS
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE
• Examine Incident Characterization Information• Autonomously Make Protective Action Decisions• Identify and execute Plans and Annexes• Transition from initial response, to sustained response• Transition from Response to Recovery
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE
• Examine Incident Characterization Information• Autonomously Make Protective Action Decisions• Identify and execute Plans and Annexes• Transition from initial response, to sustained response• Transition from Response to Recovery
REPORTSREPORTS
ALERTSALERTS
PRODUCTTRANSFER
SUMMARY
BACK
Spatial Description of SiteSpatial Description of Site(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)
Spatial Description of SiteSpatial Description of Site(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)(water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)
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S2
S1
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7S8
S9
Sensor Locations
2 km
BACK
SensorsSensorsSensorsSensors
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Exposure Strontium-90 Water Concentration by Threshold Level mg/L)Scenario Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Adverse Severe (5 mSv) (50 mSv) (500 mSv)
Boating/swimming in open water5.03E-04 5.03E-03 5.03E-02
Swimming/shoreline activity on beach5.00E-04 5.00E-03 5.00E-02
Drinking water ingestion1.26E-05 1.26E-04 1.26E-03
Fish Consumption2.52E-03 2.52E-02 2.52E-01
Food Consumption 2.96E-04 2.96E-03 2.96E-02
BACK
Exposure Scenarios/Pathways per ZoneExposure Scenarios/Pathways per ZoneExposure Scenarios/Pathways per ZoneExposure Scenarios/Pathways per Zone
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Protective Action ThresholdsProtective Action Thresholdsand Recommendationsand Recommendations
(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)
Protective Action ThresholdsProtective Action Thresholdsand Recommendationsand Recommendations
(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)
Sensor DataHuman Health
Model Protective Action
Zone Type Time to Zonal ImpactDuration of Zonal
ImpactSeverity
Applicable Decisions
Severe EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere Evacuate
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Water Model
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Shoreline
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
Water
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
BACK
S1S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7
S8
S9
Sensor Locations
2 km
Status Board Notification through SensorsStatus Board Notification through Sensors
BACK
S1S2
S3
S4S5
S6S7
S8
S9
Sensor Locations
2 km
S3
S7
S2
S6
S1
Detection Threshold
Impacts Threshold
Julian Day
257.0 257.1 257.2 257.3 257.4 257.5 257.6 257.7 257.8 257.9 258.0 258.1 258.2 258.3 258.4
C (
mg/L
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9
Initial Release - 100 mg/L at JD=257.0
S3 S2
S6
S1
Detection Threshold
Impacts Threshold
S3
S7
S2
S6
S1
Detection Threshold
Impacts Threshold
Julian Day
257.0 257.1 257.2 257.3 257.4 257.5 257.6 257.7 257.8 257.9 258.0 258.1 258.2 258.3 258.4
C (
mg/L
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9
Initial Release - 100 mg/L at JD=257.0
S3 S2
S6
S1
Detection Threshold
Impacts Threshold
Incident Identification(sensors exceed threshold)
BACK
S3
S4
S5S8
S9
R1R2
R3 R4R5
R6
Sensor Locations
Initial ReleaseS1S2
S6
S7
2 km
Surface Water Back Calculations
BACK
Estimate Potential Release Points and Source Strengths
Surface WaterSurface WaterTransport Forward Transport Forward
CalculationCalculation
Surface WaterSurface WaterTransport Forward Transport Forward
CalculationCalculation
ForwardBack
Previous Slide
Surface Water TransportSurface Water TransportForward CalculationForward Calculation
Surface Water TransportSurface Water TransportForward CalculationForward Calculation
▼ChosenSource
Back
Risk Impact Analysis
BACK
● Overlay plume, which exceeds a threshold, on to zones
● Identify zones directly impacted by plume
● Identify zones indirectly
impacted
Post Protective Action RecommendationsPost Protective Action Recommendations(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)
Post Protective Action RecommendationsPost Protective Action Recommendations(Water, Shoreline, Land)(Water, Shoreline, Land)
Sensor DataHuman Health
Model Protective Action
Zone Type Time to Zonal ImpactDuration of Zonal
ImpactSeverity
Applicable Decisions
Severe EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere EvacuateAdverse Restrict AccessSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere MitigateAdverse MitigateSevere Evacuate
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Water Model
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Shoreline
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
Water
Short (0 - 2 hours)
Medium (>2 - 72 hours)
Long (>72 hours)
BACK
Rapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk AssessmentRapid Risk Assessment
Contaminant Concentration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 6 11 16 21 26 31
Time
Co
ncen
trati
on
(u
g/L
)
Detects
1 6 11 16 21 26 31
Time
De
tec
t
Time
TimeScenario Comparison
Ha
zard
In
de
xR
esp
on
seC
ost Shower Garden
Drinking
Chloroform (67663)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1
Surface Water Concentration (g/ml)
Prob
abilit
y of E
quali
ng or
Exc
eedin
g Co
ncen
tratio
n, ba
sed o
n Dur
ation
(%)
Pro
babi
lity
of E
xcee
denc
e
Concentration
Is this significant?