Post on 12-Jan-2016
Quantifying Transportation NeedsQuantifying Transportation Needsand Assessing Revenue Options:and Assessing Revenue Options:
The Texas ExperienceThe Texas Experiencepresented topresented to
The Arkansas Blue Ribbon The Arkansas Blue Ribbon Committee on Highway FinanceCommittee on Highway Finance
Dr. David EllisResearch Scientist
Texas Transportation InstituteThe Texas A&M University System
College Station, Texas
Phone: 979.845.6165E-mail: d-ellis@tamu.edu
Two EffortsTwo EffortsThe 2030 Committee to
Determine Transportation Needs and Recommend Investment Level
The TRENDS Model to Assess Revenue Alternatives
Desired Mobility Level
Analytical ProcessAnalytical Process
Investment Required
Current/Future
Revenue Stream
Current/Future
Expense Stream
Economic Impact
Benefit/Cost
TheTRENDSModel
The2030
Committee
The 2030 Committee Needs The 2030 Committee Needs AssessmentAssessment
Needs Determination Needs Determination Process SummaryProcess SummaryTravel demand modelsPeak period speedsRegular delay and incident/irregular delayCalculate performance measuresIdentify road sections over congestion
thresholdEstimate road needed to accomplish
scenarioGroup by area type and functional classEstimate cost for area/functional class
additionsAdd interchange and right-of-way costs
Urban Mobility Analysis Urban Mobility Analysis OverviewOverview
Performance Measures• Peak and free-flow travel speed• Delay reductions from signal
coordination,• access mgmt, incident clearance,
ramp metering• Texas Congestion Index • Delay per “commuter” • Total delay and extra fuel costs
Types of BenefitsTypes of BenefitsDelay savings – compared to free-flowFuel savings – simple estimate (% of
delay)Reduced cost of goods and services
(productivity)Business Effects
◦Economic impact of construction◦Business profitability & job creation
Local tax revenue
Maintain Economic Competitiveness
Reduce Congestion
Current Funding Trend
Prevent Worsening Congestion
Inadequate Mobility Investment
MINIMUM
Delay Hours per Commuter in 2030
Mobility Investment and Congestion Mobility Investment and Congestion MitigationMitigation
Costs of Improvements and Costs of Improvements and CongestionCongestion
Total Investment Needed: 2010 to Total Investment Needed: 2010 to 20302030(in 2008 $)(in 2008 $)
2030 Need Area Investment Required
Pavements $ 89 Billion
Bridges $ 36 Billion
Urban Mobility $ 171 Billion
Rural Mobility and Safety Projects $ 17 Billion
TOTAL $ 313 Billion
The Transportation The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination Needs Determination System (TRENDS) ModelSystem (TRENDS) Model
Dynamic and InteractiveDynamic and InteractiveAnalytical Planning ToolAnalytical Planning Tool
Web-basedMenu DrivenAllows User to Make Choices
TRENDS Model ProcessTRENDS Model ProcessGallons of Fuel UsedPopulationRelationship of Fuel Used to
PopulationFuel EfficiencyFuel Used/Fuel Efficiency = VMTFuture Population yields Future
Fuel Use and VMT
The Relationship Between The Relationship Between Gasoline Used and Gasoline Used and PopulationPopulation
Relationship Between Diesel Relationship Between Diesel Fuel and PopulationFuel and Population
68 Variables68 VariablesTaxesFeesMaintenance LevelsFuel EconomyInflation RatePopulation
Report FormatsReport FormatsTabular FormRevenue and Expense StatementCharts
Backcasting Using the TRENDS Model
Absolute Mean Value of Error: 1992-2008
Gasoline Revenues: 2.19 %
Diesel Revenues:2.68 %
Registration Fee Revenues:2.55 %
Alternative Fuel Economy Alternative Fuel Economy ScenariosScenarios
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Mil
es P
er G
all
on
"Low" Scenario" "Average" Scenario "High" Scenario
PROJECTED REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES
Total RevenuesMaintenance and
Operating ExpendituresNew Capacity Expenditures
Annual Balance of Funds Cumulative Balance
Fiscal Year
2010 $8,758,866,295 $5,719,566,241 $0 $3,039,300,054 $3,039,300,0542011 $8,666,176,935 $6,199,735,250 $0 $2,466,441,685 $5,505,741,7392012 $7,331,042,188 $6,565,611,249 $0 $765,430,938 $6,271,172,6772013 $7,394,794,904 $6,662,663,504 $0 $732,131,400 $7,003,304,0772014 $7,455,331,884 $6,788,181,923 $0 $667,149,961 $7,670,454,0382015 $6,509,064,724 $7,131,845,147 $0 -$622,780,423 $7,047,673,6142016 $6,558,673,619 $6,951,339,715 $0 -$392,666,095 $6,655,007,5192017 $6,582,076,715 $7,063,421,961 $0 -$481,345,245 $6,173,662,2742018 $6,600,459,874 $7,224,842,844 $0 -$624,382,971 $5,549,279,3032019 $6,611,094,702 $7,393,445,846 $0 -$782,351,144 $4,766,928,1592020 $6,612,209,268 $8,711,630,578 $0 -$2,099,421,310 $2,667,506,8492021 $6,603,964,888 $8,999,905,699 $0 -$2,395,940,811 $271,566,0372022 $6,584,919,464 $9,297,115,473 $0 -$2,712,196,009 -$2,440,629,9722023 $6,553,222,123 $9,636,769,543 $0 -$3,083,547,420 -$5,524,177,3912024 $6,506,690,326 $9,952,306,197 $0 -$3,445,615,871 -$8,969,793,2632025 $6,442,514,351 $10,319,739,231 $0 -$3,877,224,880 -$12,847,018,1422026 $6,371,518,932 $10,669,747,152 $0 -$4,298,228,221 -$17,145,246,3632027 $6,293,285,063 $10,933,478,274 $0 -$4,640,193,212 -$21,785,439,5752028 $6,207,281,506 $11,223,846,556 $0 -$5,016,565,050 -$26,802,004,6252029 $6,113,058,615 $11,634,934,560 $0 -$5,521,875,946 -$32,323,880,5702030 $6,010,008,576 $12,062,368,227 $0 -$6,052,359,651 -$38,376,240,2212031 $5,960,528,848 $12,381,798,447 $0 -$6,421,269,599 -$44,797,509,8202032 $5,922,511,254 $12,728,902,058 $0 -$6,806,390,804 -$51,603,900,6252033 $5,895,448,048 $13,209,382,882 $0 -$7,313,934,834 -$58,917,835,4592034 $5,878,939,290 $13,708,972,798 $0 -$7,830,033,508 -$66,747,868,9672035 $5,872,534,080 $14,228,432,867 $0 -$8,355,898,787 -$75,103,767,7542036 $5,876,342,534 $14,768,554,491 $0 -$8,892,211,957 -$83,995,979,7112037 $5,884,909,720 $15,330,160,627 $0 -$9,445,250,907 -$93,441,230,6182038 $5,898,161,942 $15,914,107,045 $0 -$10,015,945,103 -$103,457,175,7212039 $5,911,436,995 $16,521,283,637 $0 -$10,609,846,642 -$114,067,022,3632040 $5,924,301,110 $17,152,615,780 $0 -$11,228,314,670 -$125,295,337,033
TOTAL: $201,791,368,771 $327,086,705,804 $0 -$125,295,337,033
Questions?Questions?
David EllisDavid EllisResearch ScientistResearch ScientistTexas Transportation InstituteTexas Transportation InstituteThe Texas A&M University The Texas A&M University SystemSystemCollege Station, Texas 77845College Station, Texas 77845
979.845.6165979.845.6165d-ellis@tamu.edud-ellis@tamu.edu
Other Slides
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
Population RegisteredVehicles
Vehicle MilesTraveled
State-MaintainedLane Miles
An
nu
al
Perc
en
t In
cre
ase P
er
Year
Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Eff
ecti
ve T
ax R
ate
(Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n)
Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for InflationInflation
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Eff
ecti
ve F
uel
Tax
Rat
e (C
ents
per
Gal
lon
)
Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by H.C.I.H.C.I.
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Mil
es
Pe
r G
all
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Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Texas:Texas:
Gasoline Powered VehiclesGasoline Powered Vehicles
$105
$110
$115
$120
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
$150
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
An
nu
al
Fu
el
Ta
x P
aid
Fuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax PaidFuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax Paid(assuming 12,000 annual miles)(assuming 12,000 annual miles)
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2029
Rev
enu
e in
Bil
lio
ns
of
$Gasoline Tax Revenues Diesel Tax Revenues
Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues TexasTexas
Over the next 20 years:
• VMT is projected to increase 33 percent
• Fuel tax revenue is projected to decrease 23 percent
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
19
36
19
39
19
42
19
45
19
48
19
51
19
54
19
57
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
WW IIRationing
Nominal Price: +33%Real Price: +20%
VMT: -2.5%
Nominal Price: +46%Real Price: +38%
VMT: -3.3%
Nominal Price: +36%Real Price: +23%
VMT: -1.0%
Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009(Source: Federal Highway Administration)(Source: Federal Highway Administration)
0.200.25
0.610.67 0.67
0.84 0.850.81
0.78
0.31
0.23
0.51
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Ja
nu
ary
Fe
bru
ary
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
gu
st
Se
pte
mb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
ve
mb
er
De
ce
mb
er
R-S
qu
are
d V
alu
e
R-Squared Value - Price of Gasoline and Per Capita Consumption by Month
August 1997 through July 2009
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
-60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%
Percent Change in Consumption Per Capita
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
in
Pri
ce
Consumption UpPrice Up
Consumption UpPrice Down
Consumption DownPrice Down
Consumption DownPrice Up
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Consumption of Gasoline Per Capita Versus Year-Over-Year in Percent Change in Gasoline
Price in Texas(All Months - August 1997 through July 2009)