Post on 18-Oct-2020
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
Results
May 20, 2010
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• The Zillow Homeowner Confidence Survey is fielded quarterly to determine the confidence level of American homeowners when it comes to the value of their own homes and their local real estate markets.
• The Zillow Home Value Misperception Index measures the gap between homeowner perceptions of changes in their home’s value and actual home value changes. An index of zero would mean homeowner perceptions are in line with actual values.
• Total in tables and graphics may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
• Details of methodology are available on the last page of this document.
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
Homeowner Perception of Home Values in Past 12 Months
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50%
23%27%
65%
7%
28%
My Home’s Value Has
DecreasedMy Home’s Value
Has Stayed the SameMy Home’s Value
Has Increased
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Homeowner Perception vs. Percent of U.S. Homes That Decreased, Stayed the Same, or Increased in Value, According to
Zillow Q1 Real Estate Market Reports
Perception
Actual
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
5
32
17
11
6
13
10
-2
5
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Q
2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Positive numbers show an optimistic view, zero means homeowners’ perceptions are in line with reality & negative numbers show a cynical view of home values.
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
6
5
-2
4
14
-12-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Zillow Misperception Index by Region;Zero Means Homeowners’ Perceptions are in Line with Reality
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
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Q: Has the value of your primary residence increased or decreased since approximately this time last year?
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
National Northeast Midwest South West
Decreased (Perception)
50% 38% 52% 46% 65%
Decreased (Actual)
65% 56% 72% 69% 63%
Stayed the Same(Perception)
23% 25% 29% 20% 18%
Stayed the Same (Actual)
7% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Increased(Perception)
27% 37% 19% 34% 18%
Increased (Actual)
28% 34% 21% 27% 31%
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
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National Northeast Midwest South West
Q1 2010 5 -2 4 14 -12
Q4 2009 -2 -14 3 0 -5
Q3 2009 10 -6 8 15 17
Q2 2009 13 10 10 18 7
Q1 2009 6 12 3 8 3
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
Zillow Misperception Index by Region;Zero Means Homeowners’ Perceptions are in Line with Reality
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
Shadow Inventory‘Sideline Sellers’ Represent 5.3 Million Homes
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
If you saw signs of a real estate market turnaround in the next 12 months, how likely would you be to put your home up for sale?
14%
8%
7%
71%
Somwhat Likely
Likely
Very Likely
Not Likely
7% = 5.3 Million U.S. Homes
By Comparison,
5.2 Million Existing
Homes Sold in 2009* *National Association of Realtors
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
Homeowner Perception of Own Home Values And Local Market Values in Next Six Months
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Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
National Northeast Midwest South West
Decrease 18% 10% 18% 18% 27%
Stay the Same
43% 39% 53% 41% 41%
Increase 39% 51% 29% 42% 32%
Q: Do you expect your own home's value to increase or decrease during the next six months?
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National Northeast Midwest South West
Decrease 20% 14% 22% 17% 30%
Stay the Same
37% 37% 47% 33% 36%
Increase 42% 49% 32% 50% 34%
Q: Overall, do you expect home values in your local real estate market to increase or decrease during the next six months?
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
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The United States are contained in four geographic regions as follows:
• Northeast: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia
• Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin
• South: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia
• West: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey
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Jul
• The survey was conducted online by Harris Interactive within the United States on behalf of Zillow.com between April 5 and April 7, 2010 among 2,024 adults ages 18+, of whom 1,428 are homeowners. Unless otherwise indicated, all percentages are based out of homeowners who think the value of their home has increased, decreased or remained the same since this time last year. Percentages have been recalculated to exclude “not sure” or “don’t know” and/or not applicable responses, and to exclude homeowners who already had their home for sale. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. A full methodology, including weighting variables, is available.
• Zillow Home Value Misperception Index measures the gap between homeowner perception of changes in their home’s value, and actual home value changes. The Misperception Index is calculated from an adjusted base of homeowners who think their home value changed – increased or decreased – and excludes “not sure” AND “remained the same” responses. The Index is the difference between those who think their home’s value increased (35% adjusted, from Survey) and the percent of U.S. homes that actually increased (30% adjusted, Zillow Q1 data) in value year-over-year on an adjusted base of home values that changed by more or less than one percent (excludes homes that remained the same within one percent). Zillow Q4 data is based on analysis of Q1 Real Estate Market Reports.
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey