Post on 12-Apr-2017
Public Transport and
Sustainable Development
Dr. André Dantas, Senior Lecturer in Transportation Engineering, Civil Engineering Department
Presentation outline
• An example of “sustainable” public transport system
• Planning process for Public Transport
• Discussion
• Brief self-introduction• Why Public Transport (and why not)?
• Public Transport in the Transport Planning context
• Future Sustainable Development and Public TransportBack to the long-term challengesEnergy availability, urban form and Public TransportRenewable energy and public transport operation
• Public Transport around the world
-From Brazil via Japan;
-Received PhD in 2002 from the Nagoya Institute of Technology, Japan;
-GIS instructor at the University of Brasilia, Brazil;
-Public Transport Planner in the Contagem Municipality, MG, Brasil
-Traffic engineer and transportation planner in different parts of Brazil;
-Research interests include: Neuro-Geo-Temporal models for Transportation Planning; Logistics of Emergency Events; and Energy Constrained Transportation Systems.
Dr. André DantasB.E. Civil (UFMG), M.Sc. (Univ of Brasilia), Ph.D. (Nagoya Institute of Technology)
Brief self-intro
WHY PUBLIC TRANSPORT?
(and why not)
Once upon the time, there was an urban area ….
…. And the urban area was changing
and growing…t=1
t=2
t=n
And growing
….
…and the more it was growing, the more people had complex needs
Complex commuting patterns all over the
city.
t=1
t=2
t=n
Central displacements
on foot;
Travel Demand
Long-motorized travel from suburbs to
CBD;
?
Does it sound
familiar?
So…How do people participate in activities in a complex urban environment?
A – WalkB – CycleC – Public TransportD - Car
MOST PEOPLE
USE
??
Is using cars a
good thing? YESNO
For those who said YES
Cars=Jobs=Economic Development=
GOOD??
For those who said YES
BUTBUT
BUT
For those who said YES
pollutionnoise
congestionaccidents
Is using cars a good thing?
YES
NO
For those who said NO
What can we do?
Public transport
For those who said NO
BUTBUT
BUT
CURRENT CHALLENGES•Can we keep social&economic
development without a car-based economy?
•Can we design Public Transport Systems that meet our needs?
Long-term Challenges•Can we create a Public
Transport system that will be in accordance with future
constraints?•Environment
Energy
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
An example of “sustainable”
Public Transport
Curitiba, Brazil
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
•Totally integrated Public Transport System
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
•Approximately 4 mi people in the metropolitan area
•High levels of accessibility to all segments of society
•Single and low fare to all users
•Public Transport industry exporting technology and services to many countries
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
•4 thousand direct jobs
•Reduction in crime rates over the last 35 years•Buoyant economy attracting various industries
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
What is the secret to success?
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
PLANNING PLANNING PLANNING PLANNING
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
Regional PLANNING Urban PLANNING Transport PLANNING Public Transport PLANNING
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
Planning started in 1970…Vision/objectives/goals:
•To use Public Transport System as a tool to achieve regional and urban goals•To encourage development along axes of the Public Transport system•To incrementally change towards a sustainable transport•To encourage gradual mode change (cars=>bus)
Initial design of the Public Transportation system
•Black Route - Corridor - Articulate bus •Red Route - Feeding - Mini-bus •Pink Route - Conventional - Standard
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
Central Area
Peripheral areas
Corridor
Attraction zones
Initial design of the Public Transportation system
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
Public Transport in
the Transport Planning context
Transportation planning and PT
•Often transportation engineers (and all others involved in the transport industry) neglect the fact that there is much more than considering motorized individual transportation
•Policies, strategies and plans are conceived and implemented without taking into consideration the role of PTB (or public transport in general)
transportation planning objectives are not achieved
Transportation planning and PT
Additional travel time delays and pollution to the whole transportation system
For example:-A planning exercise that attempts to improve the transportation system performance by adopting urban road pricing
-HOWEVER, actions to develop the PT system are neglected.
-THEREFORE, expected mode shifts (mostly car users changing to bus services due to travel cost increase) are not observed.
Transportation planning and PT
PT planning relates to 4 main levels of transportation planningConceptual combination of transportation systems, land
use policies; economic incentives/disincentives, political/implementation strategies according to
communities’ input.
Assessing specific physical configurations of transportation systems in order to provide information to decision-makers, based on Modelling and forecasting of future performances
Based upon the outcomes of the Planning activities, technology and service levels are selected according
to travel demand and cost tradeoffs
Logistic activities involved in providing the PT Design services as well as evaluation of previous defined targets and standards (e.g. service levels,
costs, reliability, etc).
PT operation
PT design
Planning
Policy making:
Policy 1
Travel Demand Modeling and Forecasting
Improve/Implement Public Transport System
How?Which mode?
Where?
When?
Policy nImprove/Implement Private Transport
How?
Where?
When?
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario m
Evaluation•Cost/Benefit Analysis
•Effectiveness Analysis •Alternative Analysis
Public Transport
Plans
Private Transport
Plan
Transportation planning and PT
Diagnosis of the system
Intervening Elements and system characteristics
Simulate travel time car
Estimate Ridership Public Transport Cost revenues
Assess Economic Performance
Operational plan
Service Planning
Control and Evaluation
Every 5
years
Every 3 years
Every year
Operational model Selection of Technology System design
PT planning
CAUTION!!!!!
Evaluation of Transport Projects
•Involvement of international funding organizations (World Bank, IMF, JICA, etc).
•There is always a political aspect playing a very important role;
•Big projects such as Subways, Light rail, etc are extremely influenced by commercial lobby.
•Tendency in conceiving transportation corridors using high-capacity modes
•Benefits, costs and impacts (land use-transportation system interactions) changes are correctly computed.
•In most cases, subsidies are used to reach economic feasibility.•Be aware and concerned about over-estimation of projected travel
demand
Public Transport in around the
world
Japan
Nagoya, Japan
Road (90 min.)
Toll road (30 min.)
JR(70 min.)
Bullet train (15 min.)
Bus 1 (100 min.)
Bus 2(120 min.)
ToyohashiNagoy
a
Nagoya, Japan
Nagoya, Japan
Nagoya, Japan
London, UK
Munich, Germany
Munich, Germany
Munich, Germany
Bangkok, Thailand
Beijing, China
Beijing, China
Beijing, China
Amazon Region, Brazil
Future Sustainable
Development and Public Transport
Long-term Challenges•Can we create a Public
Transport system that will be in accordance with future
constraints?•Environment
Energy
Peak Oil Probability
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
7.8% Growth1963-1973
2% Growth& Decline
High Prices CanAffect Demand4.1% Decline
1979-1983
2016
40
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
01900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 21002075 2125
Billi
ons
of B
arre
ls p
er y
ear
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
babi
lty (%
)
Peak Oil5% Reduction7.5% Reduction10% Reduction15% Reduction20% Reduction
Fuel Shortage
Probability Consequences
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
babi
lty (%
)
Peak Oil5% Reduction7.5% Reduction10% Reduction15% Reduction20% Reduction
•Extremely high transport costs
•Less energy available
•No replacement for petroleum
•Few will afford cars
•Less mobility and accessibility
•Changes in life-style/activities
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT
THESE LONG TERM
CHALLENGES?
Risk Analysis
• Identify Risks• Evaluate Impacts• Mitigation Measures• Implementation
Risk assessment
R = risk an oil crisis/shortage event affecting travel/activitiesP= probability of oil crisis/shortage event
IPR *
I = impact of an oil crisis/shortage event quantifies
High
Med.
Low
High Med. Low
I
P
Risk scale
High
Medium
Low
Risk Assessment
Impact1
IPTIPT
I After
Before
Tbefore= travel behaviour before an oil crisis/shortage eventTafter= travel behaviour after an oil crisis/shortage eventIP = importance factor of trips to participate in activities
Energy Constrained Activity Model
Travel/Activity(Tbefore)
RECATS Model
Energy Constraint(EC) EC≥Ebefore?
Modify Travel/Activity
(Tafter)
Constrained Travel/ActivityCalculate Risk
Yes
No
(Ebefore)Energy consumption
Oil crisis/shortageProbability (P)
Case Study, Christchurch 2051
What are the risks?
Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Business As Usual Car Trips Lost
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess0
1
2
3
4
5x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long DistanceTr
ips
per D
ay (1
05)
CarBusWalk
19% 8% 7%
High Risk=133
Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option A – Centralized development Car Trips Lost Moderate Risk=104
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess0
1
2
3
4
5x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long DistanceTr
ips
per D
ay (1
05 )
CarBusWalk
14% 9% 7%
Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option B – Hybrid-Corridor based development Car Trips Lost Low Risk=66
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess0
1
2
3
4
5x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long DistanceTr
ips
per D
ay (1
05 )
CarBusWalk
23% 8% 8%
Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option C – Urban sprawlCar based development Car Trips Lost Very High Risk=213
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
x 105
Short Distance Medium Distance Long DistanceTr
ips
per D
ay (1
05 )
CarBusWalk
100% 28% 6%
Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option B – Hybrid-Corridor based development Car Trips Lost Low Risk=66
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess0
1
2
3
4
5x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance
Trip
s pe
r Day
(10
5 )
CarBusWalk
23% 8% 8%
Public Transport’s role?
Renewable Sources
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Fossil Sources
Supply
GW
h
Need More Energy
Is it possible to re-engineer the system according to ENERGY CONSTRAINTS?
Renewable energy and public transport operation
City of 340,000 people
Land Area of 450 km2
300,000 Cars
Medium Density City
Reasonable Bus System
Transportation RequirementsChristchurch
Renewable energy and public transport operation
The Orbiter11 % of all bus tripsPatronage of over 600,000 per year
www.ecan.govt.nz
Energy Requirement
Transportation System
18 Buses 1.5 hour circuit 10 minute intervals
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Orbiter Route
www.ecan.govt.nz
Renewable energy and public transport operation
• Independent Grid Required for our electric bus system
Electricity Grid in South Island
70% HydroelectricityBut…Grid is at capacity
Renewable energy and public transport operation
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Time of Year [Month]
Ave
rage
Irra
diat
ion
[kW
h/m
2/da
y]
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Win
d S
peed
[m/s
]
Solar Wind
Wind & Solar 2003
www.earthday.net
Renewable Energy Resources
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Performance of Existing Technologies
Based on Actual Performance Specifications for Available Products Wind Turbine: 1 MW DE-Wind D6
www.earthday.netSolar PV: 8% Electric System Efficiency UniSolar
www.auroville.org
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Electric Trolley Bus
OrbiterOrbiter
•25 kW Motor•40 km/hr max speed•< 0.5% Elevation Change•Overhead Electric Power•Lightweight Frame•32 Passengers
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Alternative Concepts generated Electric Trolley – Fixed Route, Orbiter Schedule
Dedicated Electric Energy System
Wind and Solar Energy Resources
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Orbiter schedule is not always met
Wind and Solar Power Trolley Service
Typical Day
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Technically Feasible
Economically Impossible
Environmentally Critical
Result: Full Service MetResult: Full Service Met
99.1% of Orbiter Schedule Met:• 2 Wind Turbines• 3 x 200kW Pump/Generators• 106 m3 reservoir• 100 m head
Wind Power + Pump-Storage
Hydro
Renewable energy and public transport operation
1MW Wind Turbine 1MW Wind Turbine& 20,000m2 PV
65,000m2 PV
3 * 1MW Wind Turbines
Design ConceptsDesign Concepts
$
$$$
$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Service FactorService Factor
1MW Wind Turbine 61%
65,000 m2 PV 59%
1MW Wind Turbine
+ 20,000 m2 PV86%
3 x1MW Wind Turbines 80%
Renewable energy and public transport operation
We reach a considerable number of trolley trips
But not replacement of the Fossil Fuel schedule
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Service vs. InvestmentService vs. Investment
$
%
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Modern public transportation systems are moving to real-time scheduling
Flexible – Real-Time SchedulingFlexible – Real-Time Scheduling
Renewable energy and public transport operation
Dr. Susan KrumdieckSusan.Krumdieck@Canterbury.Ac.Nz
Advanced Energy and Material Systems LabAdvanced Energy and Material Systems Lab
Interdisciplinary research effort to develop the theory, models, information, ideas, technology and planning tools for New Zealand to begin the journey toward a Sustainable Civilization.
Dr. Andre DantasAndre.Dantas@Canterbury.Ac.Nz