Public Opinion

Chapter 7

What is Public Opinion?

Public Opinion is the collective attitude of citizens on a given issue or questionIn a democracy, government policy is supposed to be made in response to the public’s wishesDemocratic theory implies that government leaders are able to ascertain what the public is thinking about current political and social issues

Majoritarian Model

Government should do what the majority wants

Direct election of House supposed to take public opinion into account

Legislation passed by a majority of the House does not necessarily reflect the opinions of a majority of citizens

The U.S. is a majoritarian systemPsych!

Budget deficit vs. balanced budget

ERA not ratified vs. most people supported it

Impeach Clinton vs. most opposed it

Term limits wanted vs. not approved

Get out of Iraq vs. Still in Iraq

If, If, If…

If we were to use the majoritarian model to make policy, we would need a way to do it

How do we find out what people think about what government should do?

Opinion Polling

January 2007 Example

As you may know, the Bush administration is considering a temporary but significant increase in the number of US troops in Iraq to help stabilize the situation there. Would you favor or oppose this?18% Strongly favor18% Moderately favor19% Moderately Oppose42% Strongly Oppose3% No opinion

majoritarian? democratic?

Knowing how often government policy runs against majority opinion, it becomes harder to defend the U.S. government as democratic under the majoritarian view of democracy

???????????

Perhaps there is another model at work here:

Pluralist Model

Role of government: protect and promote diversity of opinion.

Human nature is selfish and acquisitive.

Government must merely allow free expression of the often numerous “minority” opinions

(Government doesn’t have to do exactly what the groups or the majority want)

Pluralism

Public seldom demonstrates clear opinions on the day-to-day operations of government

Some subgroups (factions?) will have vigorous opinions on some issues

More About Polling

More About Polling

Apparently, polling has been going on for awhile

“The Battle of the Bulge Poll”

How is this possible?

Statistical sampling theory and computer technology have made it possible to better understand the distribution of the population’s beliefs and attitudes about politics and government

“Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone”

Modern survey research methodology allows national opinion to be estimated within specified degrees of accuracy

Factors Influencing AccuracyThe way the sample is selected (random sampling is needed to compute sampling error)

The size of the sample (national samples of 1500 cases will be accurate within three percentage points, plus or minus)

The amount of variation in the population (pollsters compute sampling accuracy by assuming maximum variation in the population)

PollsSpecifics:

For populations over 500,00 pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, ensuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3%

Increasingly difficult to get this number because of call-screening

New problem: cell-phone-only homes

Low response rates harm reliability

Polling Dictionary

Wonderful Polling Vocabulary

QuestionsWhy must a public opinion sample be a random sample? Why not simply stop a random group of citizens on the street?

Why is the sampling error margin so important to the accurate prediction required by modern polling methods?

How might a survey be “loaded”? How can the way a question is worded influence how one responds to it?

11%13%

33%

70%

21%

5% 3%

43%

To have a hotline For government to set up a hotline

Questionnaire design: The Effect of One Word

Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University National Survey of Americans’ Views on Consumer Protections in managed Care, January 1998

How important do you think it isto have a hotline telephone number people can call to get help when they have problems with their health plan?

How important do you think it is for the GOVERNMENT to set up a hotline telephone number people can call to get help when they have problems with their health plan?

Very Important Somewhat Important Not too important Not at all important

Questionnaire design: Balance in question wording

What’s wrong with these questions?

• Do you support the United States taking military action against Iraq?

• If you heard that Candidate X supported stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for her?

• Did you happen to vote in the presidential election in 2000?

Questionnaire design: Balance in question wording

Bad questions, improved:

• Do you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iraq?

• If you heard that Candidate X supported stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for her, less likely to vote for her, or wouldn’t it make much difference?

• Did you happen to vote in the presidential election in 2000, or not?

Problem of Question Wording

Would you support or oppose changing Senate rules to make it easier for the Republicans to confirm Bush’s judicial nominees?

Support 26%Oppose 66%

Washington Post/ABC News Poll 1007 Adults April 21-24 2005

Margin of Error +/- 3%

Problem of Question Wording

The Republicans won the last election so President Bush should be able to appoint anyone he wants to the federal courts if a majority of the Senators agree.

Agree 53%Disagree 43%

Pew research Center Poll1502 Adults, May 11-15, 2005

Margin of error +/- 3%

Problem of Question Wording

The minority party ought to be able to block some of the judges they feel strongly about because judges are appointed to the federal courts for life terms.

Agree 62%Disagree 30%

Pew research Center Poll1502 Adults, May 11-15, 2005

Margin of error +/- 3%

Problem of Question Wording

Senate rules should be changed so that a vote must be taken on every person the President nominates to become a judge.

Yes 57%No 25%

Rasmussen Reports Poll1000 Adults, May 12-13 2005

Margin of Error +/- 3%

What guides people’s opinions?What guides people’s opinions?

Political IdeologyPolitical Ideology

Political IdeologyPolitical Ideology Complex and interrelated set of values Complex and interrelated set of values

(and beliefs) that form a general (and beliefs) that form a general philosophy of government.philosophy of government.

Generates an individual’s position on Generates an individual’s position on political and social issues and political and social issues and influences their opinions (and influences their opinions (and attitudes) about events.attitudes) about events.

Since they are based on values and Since they are based on values and beliefs, it tends to be intensely held, beliefs, it tends to be intensely held, long-lasting, and difficult to change.long-lasting, and difficult to change.

For Example:For Example:

And to think…And to think…• Your ideology comes from your family!Your ideology comes from your family!

• Actually your family is one of the Actually your family is one of the institutions that impacts Political institutions that impacts Political SocializationSocialization

Socializing InstitutionsSocializing Institutions• The FamilyThe Family• Social GroupsSocial Groups

InvoluntaryInvoluntary• GenderGender• EthnicityEthnicity• RaceRace• Class and Income?Class and Income?

VoluntaryVoluntary• ReligionReligion• Education Education • OccupationOccupation• UnionUnion• Political Party Political Party

• PeersPeers• RegionRegion• MediaMedia• Economic InterestsEconomic Interests

Political Ideology Trivia:Political Ideology Trivia:

Invention of IdeologyInvention of Ideology

&

Political Ideology Continuum:Political Ideology Continuum:

Traditional Ideological ContinuumTraditional Ideological Continuum

How we thinkHow we think The majority of Americans do not The majority of Americans do not

tend to think ideologicallytend to think ideologically People who form their political People who form their political

opinions on the basis of a disntict opinions on the basis of a disntict ideology constitute only about 20 ideology constitute only about 20 percent of the electoratepercent of the electorate

Most people place themselves Most people place themselves somewhere along the continuum, but somewhere along the continuum, but few understand what that means few understand what that means politicallypolitically

The Middle:The Middle: Many Americans seem to choose the Many Americans seem to choose the

easy response and locate themselves easy response and locate themselves in the center. in the center.

ModerateModerate MiddleMiddle

Others may choose the middle Others may choose the middle because they have some because they have some conservative views and some liberal conservative views and some liberal viewsviews

Critique of Traditional ContinuumCritique of Traditional Continuum

CritiqueCritique• Does not differentiate economic and Does not differentiate economic and

social issuessocial issues• Does not take into account the ultra Does not take into account the ultra

extremesextremes• Many are not “liberals” or Many are not “liberals” or

“conservatives”“conservatives” Alternatives: Analysis Based ValuesAlternatives: Analysis Based Values

• Kevin PhillipsKevin Phillips• Aaron WildavskiAaron Wildavski

Ideological MatrixIdeological Matrix

Ideological MatrixIdeological Matrix

Values Based IdeologyValues Based Ideology

Values Based IdeologyValues Based Ideology

Values Based IdeologyValues Based Ideology

Where do you stand?

Get up. Stand up.

Where does everyone else stand?

Who and Where?Really important . . Why?

Simple Philosophical Framework for Ideology: People are generally

good, People are generally not

good

The End