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PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL
DEFENCE
Ordered by: Estonian Ministry of Defence
Juhan Kivirähk
Autumn 2018
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS........................................................................................................................ 2
SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................................... 4
BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY ....................................................................................................... 9
1 Sample .................................................................................................. 9
2 Survey ................................................................................................. 10
3 Performers........................................................................................... 12
RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ..............................................................................................................13
1 General attitudes towards life in Estonia and pride in Estonia ................ 13
2 Confidence in institutions ..................................................................... 15
2.1 Confidence in institutions ................................................................................................. 15
2.1 Confidence in defence structures ...................................................................................... 17
3 Security and threats ............................................................................. 19
3.1 Security in the world ........................................................................................................ 19
3.2 Security in Estonia ........................................................................................................... 21
3.3 Threats to world security.................................................................................................. 22 3.4 Threats to Estonia ............................................................................................................ 25
3.5 Media coverage of security threats ................................................................................... 28 3.6 Security guarantees ......................................................................................................... 29
4 Defence willingness among the population of Estonia ............................ 30
4.1 Attitudes towards the necessity of resistance.................................................................... 30
4.2 Willingness to participate in defence activities .................................................................. 32 4.3 Desire to leave Estonia in the event of a military threat .................................................... 35
4.4 Ability to act in the event of a potential attack .................................................................. 37 4.5 On which topics is more information required ................................................................... 38
5 Defence capability of Estonia ................................................................ 39
5.1 The importance of national defence capability among other areas of
public interest that need improving ............................................................................................... 39 5.2 Assessment of the defence capability of Estonia ............................................................... 40
5.3 Views on the volume of defence expenditures................................................................... 41
5.4 Assessment of state activities in view of the development of national defence................... 43 5.5 Assessments on the defence of the Estonian border.......................................................... 44
5.6 Assessment of the security of digital services and information systems of Estonia’s e -state45
6 Organisation of Estonian national defence............................................. 46
6.1 Attitude towards conscript service .................................................................................... 46
6.2 Attitudes towards the professional defence forces ............................................................. 51
6.3 Attitudes towards professional servicemen and members of the Defence League............... 52 6.4 Tasks of the Defence League ............................................................................................ 54
6.5 Exposure to national defence structures and opinions on joining the Defence League ........ 56
7 NATO ................................................................................................... 58
7.1 Attitude towards membership in NATO ............................................................................. 58 7.2 NATO’s assistance in the event of a potential threat ......................................................... 61
7.3 Assessments to the actions of NATO................................................................................. 62 7.4 Assessments on the effect of the NATO battle group stationed in Estonia .......................... 63
7.5 Assessment of NATO battlegroup troops ........................................................................... 64
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8 International military operations .......................................................... 66
8.1 Attitude towards participation in international operations .................................................. 66
8.2 Arguments for participation in international operations ..................................................... 67 8.3 Attitudes towards participation in NATO, EU and UN operations ........................................ 69
8.4 Opinion on the defence co-operation of the European Union ............................................. 70
9 Veteran policy ...................................................................................... 71
9.1 Primary associations with the word “veteran” ................................................................... 71
10 National defence instruction in schools ................................................. 73
11 Media consumption .............................................................................. 74
12 Importance of information channels ..................................................... 80
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SUMMARY
In October 2018, upon the order of the Estonian Ministry of Defence, the Social and Market
Research Company Turu-uuringute AS conducted a public opinion survey on national defence
during which 1,215 residents of Estonia from the age of 15+ were interviewed. This was already
the 44th survey in monitoring public opinion, which was started in 2000.
Assessments given to changes that have taken place in Estonian life have improved steadily since
2015. 42% of respondents believe that life in Estonia has improved while 18% think that the
situation has worsened. While the share of positive answers given by Estonians has not changed
significantly over the years (41% in October), assessments to changes in Estonian life by people of
other nationalities have improved significantly compared to the previous survey (signs of
improvement are seen by 45%).
The proportion of people who feel proud and happy over living in Estonia very often or often
enough has increased a little over the course of the last three surveys: if 55% of respondents gave
such an answer a year ago, this spring it was 59% and this October 61%.
The proportion of Estonian respondents who feel proud and happy very often or often enough has
been more or less stable fluctuating between 63 and 68%. However, we saw a significant increase
of such answers (to 49%) given by non-Estonian respondents in October, which is over 10% more
than a year ago.
Of the 10 institutions the reliability of which the respondents were asked to assess, the Rescue
Services rank the highest in trustworthiness (95% trusts them completely or rather trusts them).
They are followed by the Police (86%), the Defence Forces (75%), the Defence League (72%), and
the President of the Republic (71%). Compared to several past surveys the trustworthiness of
political institutions rose to the positive side already in fall 2016 after change in government and it
is still growing. In October, 64% had confidence in the prime minister, 57% in the government and
54% in the parliament (Riigikogu). NATO and the European Union are deemed as trustworthy by 63
and 64% of the respondents respectively. The difference in attitude towards NATO between
Estonians and non-Estonians is still vast: NATO is trusted by 75% of Estonians and only 37% of
respondents of other nationalities. The situation is similar regarding the Defence Forces (trusted by
85% and 54% respectively) and the Defence League (84% and 46%).
The belief that the world is going to become more unstable and the likelihood of military conflicts
will grow exceeded 70% in spring 2015. As from fall of 2017, when the increase of instability was
assumed by 66% of the respondents, the sense of threat has started to subside—in March 2018, an
increase in lack of security was predicted by 61%, in this survey 52% of the respondents. 13% of
the respondents think that the world will become more secure in the coming decade and 24%
believe that the situation will remain unchanged.
Respondents perceive the security situation in Estonia to be somewhat more positive than that of
the world in general: 30% of respondents believe that in 10 years, the residents of Estonia will be
living in more secure conditions than they do now; only 19% predict that the situation will grow
more unsafe and 35% think that the situation will remain unchanged.
While in 2015 Russia’s activities to restore its authority were still perceived as the main threat to
world security, the actions of the Islamic State have been deemed more dangerous henceforth.
However, this survey did not present the option of the actions of the Islamic State to the
respondents, in its place including cyber-attacks and the spread of misinformation and fake news.
The actions of terror organisations are considered the most important (87% consider it certainly or
to some degree dangerous). Cyber-attacks are considered to be just as dangerous (85%). The
migration of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe is also seen as a threat to world peace (86%),
and the spread of misinformation and fake news is the fourth most dangerous (81%).
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A worldwide economic crisis (81%) and global climate change (77%) occupy fifth and sixth place
on the ranking of threats. Although Russia’s attempts to restore its authority in neighbouring
countries received more assessments of “certainly” than the previously mentioned ones, together
with the answer “to some degree” the Russian threat has retreated to almost the end of the
ranking of threat factors (70%). Though in general, all the threat factors listed in the survey are
deemed as threatening the security of the world in the view of more than 60% of the respondents.
There are four main threats to Estonia, the realisation of which in the following years is considered
probable or rather probable by more than half of the respondents: 69% of residents think that
there may be an organised attack against the Estonian state information systems. Second place
was taken by the newly introduced spread of fake news (very or rather probable in the view of 65%
of the respondents). 58% believe that some foreign country may interfere in Estonian politics or
economy in order to influence these in their own interests . An extensive marine pollution is
considered very or rather probable by 53% of the respondents.
An extensive or limited military attack against Estonia is considered very or rather probable by 18–
20% of the respondents.
Answering the question how they assess media coverage regarding the topic of security threats—
does the Estonian media write and talk about military threats to Estonia too much and often, just
enough, or rather too little—more than half of Estonians (56%) found that military threats to
Estonia are talked and written about just enough. Russian speaking respondents think that this
topic is covered too much (43%) but the proportion of respondents who think that has decreased.
11% of respondents think that military threats are talked about too little (13% of Estonian- and 6%
of Russian-speaking respondents).
NATO membership continues to be considered Estonia’s main security guarantee (57% mention it
as one of the three most important factors). In October’s survey, we included the category of
“defence will of residents”, which rose to be the second most important security guarantee with
39%. The development of Estonia’s independent defence capability holds 3 rd place with 29%.
These three factors are followed by, mainly due to the influence of respondents of other
nationalities, cooperation and good relations with Russia, which is named among the three most
important factors by 46% of non-Estonian respondents and only 15% of Estonian-speaking
respondents.
Compared to Russian-speaking respondents, Estonians mention more frequently having good allied
relations with the US and a permanent presence of allied forces on Estonian territory; respondents
of other nationalities, on the other hand, see membership in international organisations (UN, OSCE)
as more important compared to Estonians.
79% of respondents consider armed resistance in case of a military attack by a foreign country
certainly or probably necessary. Estonian-speaking respondents consider armed resistance more
necessary than non-Estonians, but the gap is decreasing. Resistance is deemed certainly necessary
by 51% of Estonian-speaking and 42% of Russian-speaking respondents, yet only 12% of the latter
do not consider resistance necessary.
60% of the population would be willing to participate in defence activities to the best o f their
abilities and skills: 65% of Estonians and 41% of the Russian-speaking respondents (57% of
Russian-speaking citizens of Estonia). Here, the rise of the defence will of the Russian-speaking
respondents (primarily citizens) can be observed. 77% of male citizens are ready to participate in
national defence.
In a situation where Estonia is under attack, every fifth person would consider leaving Estonia. The
most likely people to leave Estonia would be women (20% certainly or probably) and younger
people: 39% of people under 20 would want to leave, 27% of people between 20 and 29 and 28%
of people between 30 and 39. 22% of non-Estonians and 16% Estonians would probably leave.
The population’s awareness about behaving in an emergency situation is low and compared to
March has declined even more. Only a little over one fifth of respondents have a basic
understanding of what they could do to defend the country in such an event, while 70% are rather
not informed or certainly not informed.
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In their own words, people would like to have more information on how the public would be
informed in case of a threat (46%), how to act in a conflict area as a civilian (34%), how
evacuation would be organised (32%), and how to solve first priority domestic and household
matters (32%). Male respondents also show slightly greater than average interest in questions
related to mobilisation and their responsibilities regarding the participation in national defence.
In this survey, respondents were asked to select up to five areas of public interest that should
receive most attention from the government from a given list. The last time this question was
asked was in March 2017. The list involved 14 different topics. The most important ones were to
increase the people’s well-being (67%), improve access to healthcare services (57%), and raise
social confidence (56%). In March 2017, second place in importance was held by ensuring
economic development, whereas now, the topic has dropped to fourth place (54%).
All other topics are held less importance to the public, strengthening the nation’s defence capability
comes in with 17% at 10th place out of 14.
53% of the respondents find that Estonia can be defended until the arrival of allies’ assistance in
case of an armed attack by a foreign country. Belief in the defensibility of Estonia is higher among
Estonians (59%) and lower among respondents of other nationalities (42%), yet, when the result
among Estonians was the same as in March, it rose by 6% among respondents of other
nationalities.
The assessments given to the volume of Estonia’s defence expenditures show that the predominant
view is that they should remain at the current achieved level (50%). One fifth of the population
favours an increase in defence expenditures, and the same percentage supports cuts.
The proportion of respondents who have provided a positive assessment to the state’s activities
regarding the development of Estonian national defence has remained around 70% throughout the
last three years. This time it was exactly 70%. Estonians have a more positive attitude towards the
development of national defence compared to non-Estonians (77% and 54% gave a positive
assessment to the development of national defence, respectively).
The assessments on the protection of the Estonian eastern border were clearly negative in autumn
2014. Yet by spring 2016, they had become overwhelmingly positive. In October 2018, 61% of the
respondents gave a positive and 21% a negative assessment on the security of the national border.
For the first time, the survey includes the topic of the security of the digital services and
information systems of Estonia’s e-state. Perhaps because cyber threats are viewed as the most
likely ones, the assessment on the security of this field is also the least positive: 55% of
respondents think that the digital services and information systems of our e -state are very or rather
secure, while 22% view their security as bad.
People in Estonia have had very favouring attitudes towards conscript service for young men
throughout the survey period. This is evident in the current survey as well: 92% of respondents
believe that young men need to undergo conscript service, with 62% finding it certainly necessary.
The majority of the respondents (63%) also think that young men with minor health disorders
should undergo conscript service with an appropriate training load.
The majority of the population disapprove of evading conscript service – 20% condemn such
behaviour and 44% consider it negative. Younger age groups express higher than average
tolerance towards evading conscript service: more than 40% of people under 30 years of age take
an understanding or approving stance on evasion.
In 2013, women were given the opportunity to undergo conscript service voluntarily and this has
been gaining increasingly more understanding in the society. Of the three options that describe
what women’s relationship with conscript service should be like, 78% of respondents chose the
option of undergoing conscript service voluntarily. 2% approved of compulsory conscript service for
women while 16% held the opinion that women should not undergo conscript service at all.
Estonians and younger respondents have a more contemporary attitude towards gender equality
compared to respondents of other nationalities and older respondents. 84% of Estonians think that
women should have the opportunity of undergoing conscript service voluntarily, whereas 66% of
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non-Estonian respondents agree. 29% of the latter think that women should not enter conscript
service at all.
The respondents who considered voluntary conscript service for women necessary or rather
necessary were asked whether this should be done based on a special programme or under the
same conditions as men. A rise in the general support towards voluntary conscript service for
women has also brought along an increase in the proportion of respondents who believe that
women’s conscript service should be conducted on the basis of a separate programme—this opinion
is held by 61% of the respondents who approve of conscripts service for women, while 35%
approve of women undergoing conscript service under the same conditions as young men.
Almost 80% of the population prefer maintaining the current concept of national defence based on
professional defence forces together with reserve forces consisting of those who have undergone
conscript service. 13% support abandoning compulsory military service and switching to a fully
professional army only.
38% of the population have a very positive and 42% a rather positive attitude toward professional
servicemen. Only 1% of the respondents feel negatively towards them.
Attitude towards professional members of the Defence League is also mostly positive: 36% of
respondents feel very positive and 35% rather positive toward them. While there is no difference
among Estonians and respondents of other nationalities in their attitude toward servicemen (very or
rather positive feelings are equally at 80%), then attitude toward members of the Defence League
are more reserved among respondents of other nationalities (82% of Estonians and 51% of non-
Estonians).
According to the population of Estonia, the main tasks of the Defence League is conducting military
training and ensuring permanent readiness for national defence—these rank first according to 28%
and 24% of the respondents, respectively. Between the three choices, permanent readiness for
military defence takes first place (53%) and the second is participating in rescue activities in the
event of accidents or disasters (both at 47%).
While Estonians perceive the Defence League’s national defence tasks as the most important, the
population of other nationalities mainly sees the Defence League as a civil defence organisation,
stressing the importance of tasks like participating in rescue activities in the event of accidents and
disasters and organising civil defence in emergency situations.
4% of the respondents participate in the activities of the Defence League, 29% of the respondents
are connected to the Defence League through a family member or friend. If the respondents who
do not belong to the organisation were to be presented with a proposal to join the Defence League
or its associated organisations, 4% would certainly and 16% probably join. The readiness to join is
higher among younger respondents.
Attitudes towards Estonia’s membership in NATO continue to be positive: 76% of the population
supports it, which is 5% more than in March. 91% of Estonians and 44% of respondents of other
nationalities support the membership in NATO. Compared to March, support for NATO has grown by
12% among non-Estonian respondents.
In this survey, respondents were allowed to give several answers to the question of what kind of
aid Estonia could expect from NATO in the event of a military threat. 53% of the respondents found
that NATO would provide direct military aid in the event of a conflict while 42% thought that NATO
membership would help Estonia to avoid a military attack entirely. 18% of the respondents thought
that NATO members would limit their help to political and diplomatic support while 9% believed
that the alliance would not help Estonia in any way.
The feeling of security towards NATO’s aid is supported by the steps that have already been taken
by the alliance to ensure Estonia’s security and which are supported by the general population:
68% of the respondents (78% of Estonians) find that NATO has already done enough to ensure
Estonia’s security and 72% of the population (89% of Estonians but only 37% of non-Estonian
respondents) favour the presence of NATO’s allied forces in Estonia.
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The question of whether having NATO battle group troops stationed in Estonia make the country
generally more secure or less secure or does it have no real effect either way was answered by
77% of Estonians that the NATO battle group has made Estonia more secure. The majority of non-
Estonians (40%) do not see NATO’s presence as having an effect on Estonia’s security, and 29%
feel more secure.
In October 2017, we wanted to know for the first time which words or phrases the respondents
would choose to describe NATO battle group troops currently stationed in Estonia. The results were
roughly the same as a year ago. The troops are mostly described with positive words, among which
“professional” is repeated the most frequently. It is followed by such descriptions as “friendly”,
“well-intentioned”, “polite”, “capable”, “committed”, and “well informed about Estonia“. Only 7%
considers the allied troops as indifferent towards Estonia and 4% as untrustworthy.
68% of the population believe that the units of the Estonian Defence Forces should, in accordance
with their capabilities, participate in international operations in different conflict areas of the world.
Estonians favour the participation of the Estonian Defence Forces in military operations more than
non-Estonians (73% and 57% respectively), though the latter has increased by 10% compared to
March.
Participation in international military operations is considered necessary primarily because it
provides our soldiers with necessary real combat experience (mentioned by 66% as one of three
reasons) and guarantees NATO’s assistance to Estonia in the event of potential threats (49%).
More than two thirds of the respondents support Estonia’s involvement in missions conducted under
the aegis of NATO, the European Union, and UN, and in missions based on co-operation of allied
countries. Whereas most of Estonians support participation in all missions, most of all NATO
missions (82%); the respondents of other nationalities put more weight on under which
organisation’s aegis the mission is carried out. Non-Estonian respondents favour involvement in the
UN missions the most (57% supports totally or rather). Missions carried out on the basis of co-
operation of allied countries are supported by 57% and EU missions by 56%. Support for NATO
missions is even lower than that (support at 47%).
If in the last survey, support for establishing an EU joint border guard was at 55% and for EU joint
military force at 45%, this time the question concerned the increase of defence co-operation
between EU Member States.
The abstractly formulated defence co-operation found more public support than the unambiguously
worded proposals for establishment of a joint border guard and military force—it is supported by
75% of the respondents.
The word “veteran” is strongly associated with the image of World War II—38% of Estonians and
67% of non-Estonians regard veterans as people who took part in the Great Patriotic War. 34% of
Estonian speaking respondents (11% of non-Estonians) have adopted the national concept of
veteran policy which regards veterans as people who have participated in missions of the Estonian
Defence Forces.
Public support for national defence instruction is comparable to that of compulsory conscription
service for young men—it remains very high and stable throughout all surveys. 84% of the
respondents find that all schools that offer secondary education should certainly or probably provide
the possibility to have national defence instruction. National defence instruction is highly supported
by both Estonian and Russian-speaking respondents.
The most important information channels for obtaining information on matters of national defence
are, predictably, television (very or rather important for 82% of the respondents) and radio (71%),
more than half of the respondents also deem news portals (63%) and newspapers (56%) as very or
rather important. But direct communication with other people still fits between them (68%), being
lower than TV, but almost as important as information obtained via radio.
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BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY
This report has been prepared on the basis of the results of the Omnibus survey carried out by Turu-
uuringute AS from 4 till 23 October 2018 and similar earlier surveys. The report will be submitted to the
Estonian Ministry of Defence.
The purpose of the survey was to investigate:
General attitudes towards life in Estonia and pride in Estonia;
Confidence in institutions (incl. defence structures) among the population;
Assessments in connection with potential security risks in Estonia and the world;
Assessments on Estonia’s defence capability;
Defence willingness among the population and estimated behaviour in the event of potential
threats endangering Estonia
Attitudes towards NATO and its role in ensuring Estonian security
Attitudes toward the presence of NATO allied forces in Estonia and opinions of the allied troops;
Attitudes both towards compulsory conscript service for men and voluntary conscript service for
women;
Attitudes towards the Defence League and understanding its tasks;
Attitudes in connection with Estonia’s participation in international military operations;
Attitudes towards initial national defence instruction in schools.
Notions on veteran policy.
The first part of the report describes the methodology, the second part presents the results with figures
and comments; the Annex provides the used questionnaire and distribution tables by important
background characteristics.
1 Sample
The survey was carried out in the Omnibus 1000 environment. Omnibus 1000 is a regularly held survey
(following a specific schedule), whose sample comprises of the citizens of the Republic of Estonia with
the age above 15, which totals 1,100,881 people (Statistics Estonia, 01.01.2018).
The usual sample of the Omnibus 1000 is 1,000 respondents. The sample is formed according to the
proportional model of the general sample. This model is based on areas and settlement size (number of
residents), which are used for selecting 100 source addresses (sample points). Within each area, the
source address is selected randomly from the address list of the Population Register.
In addition to the main sample, this survey included an additional sample of 200 respondents to ensure
the better representation of the Russian-speaking population in the sample. Although the linguistic
composition of the population has been weighed according to the actual situation (i.e., by increasing
the effect of Estonian-speaking respondents and decreasing the effect of Russian-speaking
respondents), this additional sample allows to analyse the attitudes and opinions of single Russian-
speaking groups in detail.
The so-called principle of the young man was applied to the selection of respondents at the source
address. This means that at the address of the sample, the interview will be performe d with the
household’s youngest male member in the age above 15 who is present at home; if no men are at
home, the interview will be performed with the youngest woman. Such a method grants additional
possibility for participating in the sample to the categories of respondents who are at home less often
(younger people, males) and adjusts the sample to correspond to the population’s actual gender and
age composition.
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Use of the proportional model of the general sample ensures the representativeness of the sample, in
other words, it allows making generalizations about the whole same-age population of Estonia. The
maximum sampling error does not exceed ±3.10% in polling 1,000 persons, the error may be bigger
for smaller subgroups.
The following Table 1 provides sample error limitations at 95% confidence level in assessing the
proportion.
Table 1 Sampling error limitations
2 Survey
The survey method was personal interview, conducted on tablet computers in either Estonian or
Russian, depending on the respondent’s preference. A total of 65 pollers who had been given special
training by Turu-uuringute AS participated in carrying out the survey. A total of 1,215 interviews were
performed in 100 different sampling points. The social and demographic profile of the respondents has
been provided in Figure 1.
Summary of the results of the polling (number of addresses visited, reasons for not carrying out the
interview) have been presented in Table 2.
Table 2 Results of the polling
Reasons for not carrying out the interview Total
There are no target group persons in the family 565
Nobody is at home 2384
Target group person is not at home 83
Contact was denied 647
Target group person refused to give the interview 800
Other reasons for not performing the interview 163
Not a dwelling or address inaccessible 149
Summary
Total addresses 6006
Repeated visits 1427
Correctly filled in questionnaires 1215
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 3% 2%
10 30.99% 30.83% 30.36% 29.56% 28.40% 26.84% 24.79% 22.13% 18.59% 13.51% 10.57% 8.68% 20 21.91% 21.80% 21.47% 20.90% 20.08% 18.98% 17.53% 15.65% 13.15% 9.55% 7.48% 6.14% 30 17.89% 17.80% 17.53% 17.07% 16.40% 15.49% 14.31% 12.78% 10.74% 7.80% 6.10% 5.01% 40 15.49% 15.42% 15.18% 14.78% 14.20% 13.42% 12.40% 11.07% 9.30% 6.75% 5.29% 4.34% 50 13.86% 13.79% 13.58% 13.22% 12.70% 12.00% 11.09% 9.90% 8.32% 6.04% 4.73% 3.88% 60 12.65% 12.59% 12.40% 12.07% 11.60% 10.96% 10.12% 9.03% 7.59% 5.51% 4.32% 3.54% 70 11.71% 11.65% 11.48% 11.17% 10.73% 10.14% 9.37% 8.36% 7.03% 5.11% 4.00% 3.28% 80 10.96% 10.90% 10.73% 10.45% 10.04% 9.49% 8.77% 7.82% 6.57% 4.78% 3.74% 3.07% 90 10.33% 10.28% 10.12% 9.85% 9.47% 8.95% 8.26% 7.38% 6.20% 4.50% 3.52% 2.89% 100 9.80% 9.75% 9.60% 9.35% 8.98% 8.49% 7.84% 7.00% 5.88% 4.27% 3.34% 2.74% 110 9.34% 9.30% 9.15% 8.91% 8.56% 8.09% 7.47% 6.67% 5.61% 4.07% 3.19% 2.62% 120 8.95% 8.90% 8.76% 8.53% 8.20% 7.75% 7.16% 6.39% 5.37% 3.90% 3.05% 2.50% 130 8.59% 8.55% 8.42% 8.20% 7.88% 7.44% 6.88% 6.14% 5.16% 3.75% 2.93% 2.41% 150 8.00% 7.96% 7.84% 7.63% 7.33% 6.93% 6.40% 5.71% 4.80% 3.49% 2.73% 2.24% 200 6.93% 6.89% 6.79% 6.61% 6.35% 6.00% 5.54% 4.95% 4.16% 3.02% 2.36% 1.94% 300 5.66% 5.63% 5.54% 5.40% 5.18% 4.90% 4.53% 4.04% 3.39% 2.47% 1.93% 1.58% 500 4.38% 4.36% 4.29% 4.18% 4.02% 3.79% 3.51% 3.13% 2.63% 1.91% 1.49% 1.23% 750 3.58% 3.56% 3.50% 3.41% 3.28% 3.10% 2.86% 2.55% 2.15% 1.56% 1.22% 1.00%
1 000 3.10% 3.08% 3.03% 2.95% 2.84% 2.68% 2.48% 2.21% 1.86% 1.35% 1.06% 0.87% 1 500 2.53% 2.52% 2.48% 2.41% 2.32% 2.19% 2.02% 1.81% 1.52% 1.10% 0.86% 0.71%
Percentage of answers
Sam
ple
siz
e
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Figure 1. Respondents’ social and demographic profile, %, n=1215
46
54
68
32
83
7
3
7
7
13
18
16
19
27
14
58
28
6
10
29
27
28
32
16
11
12
7
22
69
31
0 20 40 60 80 100
GENDER
Male
Female
LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION
Estonian
Other
CITIZENSHIP
Estonian
Russian
Other country
Unspecified
AGE
15 - 19 a.
20 - 29 a.
30 - 39 a.
40 - 49 a.
50 - 59 a.
60 and above
EDUCATION
Primary or basic
Secondary, vocational or secondary vocational
Higher
NET INCOME PER FAMILY MEMBER
less than 300 €
301-400 €
401-650 €
More than 650 €
Difiicult to say / Refused
REGION
Tallinn
Northern Estonia
Ida-Viru County
Western Estonia
Central Estonia
Southern Estonia
RESIDENCE
City
Rural area
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 12
3 Performers
The persons responsible for various stages of the survey are:
Report, project management: Juhan Kivirähk
Sample/coordination of interviewing work: Kristel Merusk,
Kaja Södor,
Roman Vjazemski.
Data processing and tables: Marina Karpištšenko
Editing English translation OÜ Scriba
Customer’s contact person: Anniki Rebane
Contact information:
General phone:585 29 700
E-mail: post@turu-uuringute.ee
Web-page: www.turu-uuringute.ee
Address: Pärnu mnt. 102, Section A, 11312 Tallinn
Survey leader’s contact information:
Telephone: 5515200
E-mail: juhan@turu-uuringute.ee
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 13
RESULTS OF THE SURVEY
1 General attitudes towards life in Estonia and pride in Estonia
Among other things, people’s attitudes towards different social matters, including national defence, are
influenced by the positive or negative assessments given to life in Estonia in general. In order to find
out people’s views, the respondents were asked whether they think that the situation in Estonia is
improving or worsening.
The assessments given to changes that have taken place in Estonian life have become steadily more
positive from 2015 on. 42% of respondents believe that life in Estonia has improved while 18% think
that the situation has worsened (Figure 2). While the share of positive answers given by Estonians has
not changed much over recent years, compared to previous surveys the assessments to changes in
Estonian life provided by respondents of other nationalities have improved significantly.
Figure 2. Attitudes towards the changes in life in Estonia; 2016–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents)
People with higher education are more positive about Estonia’s development: 54% perceive positive
changes. 38% of people who have secondary or secondary specialized education agree, while 34% of
those who do not have secondary education think that.
Estonian life is seen as improving by younger respondents: almost half of respondents below 40 years
of age perceive improvements, the assessments of Estonian life improving or staying the same are
more or less the same among respondents 50 years of age and older.
36
39
45
44
40
41
26
32
39
41
40
42
31
36
35
37
34
34
41
38
38
35
35
34
29
17
15
17
23
20
29
26
20
21
21
18
4
8
5
2
3
5
4
4
3
3
4
6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other (2017/10)
Other (2018/03)
Other (2018/10)
Estonian(2017/10)
Estonian (2018/03)
Estonian (2018/10)
NATIONALITY
2016/03
2016/10
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Changed for the better Remained the same Changed for the worse Don't know
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 14
Assessments are naturally influenced by the respondent’s economic situation: positive changes are felt
by 26% of people within the income bracket of 301 to 400 euros per household member per month,
39% by those whose income is 401 to 650 euros, and 51% of people whose monthly income per
household member exceeds 650 euros.
People’s attitudes towards changes in life in Estonia also depend greatly on the respondents’ emotional
relation to Estonia—whether they feel happiness and pride over living here.
The proportion of respondents who feel proud and happy over living in Estonia very often or often
enough has increased a little over the past three surveys: a year ago such an answer was given by
55% of the respondents, it had risen to 59% this spring, and currently is at 61%.
The proportion of Estonian respondents who feel proud or happy over living in Estonia very often or
rather often has not has been more or less stable, fluctuating between 63 and 68%. Among
respondents of other nationalities, we see a significant increase in such answers to 49%, which is more
than 10% compared to a year ago (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Pride and happiness over living in the Republic of Estonia; 2017–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents)
Respondents of other nationalities with non-defined citizenship feel the least proud or happy over living
in Estonia—only 33% of them and 39% of Russian citizens answer often or rather often.
58% of Estonian citizens of other nationalities feel proud and happy over living here, 5% never feel that
way.
10
14
15
29
32
30
23
26
26
28
27
34
34
36
35
32
33
35
5
7
8
4
1
5
4
4
5
48
45
36
28
28
26
35
33
29
9
7
7
5
3
4
6
4
5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other (2017/10)
Other (2018/03)
Other (2018/10)
Estonian(2017/10)
Estonian (2018/03)
Estonian (2018/10)
NATIONALITY
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Very often Often enough Don't know Sometimes Never
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 15
2 Confidence in institutions
The survey addresses the population’s confidence in several state and international institutions. The
selection of institutions is based on their role in shaping, implementing, or supporting Estonian security
policy. The last survey also included local governments and the judicial system to the list of institutions.
2.1 Confidence in institutions
Respondents evaluated the trustworthiness of the institutions using a scale with four categories:
completely trust, rather trust, rather do not trust, and do not trust at all. Of the ten institutions
included in the survey, people have the greatest confidence in the Rescue Services—95% of the
Estonian population trusts them—followed by the Police (86%), Defence Forces (75%),
Defence League (72%), and the President of the Republic (71%) (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Confidence in institutions in October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
Although political institutions traditionally have the lowest level of confidence, the balance of confidence
(the difference of proportions between people who trust and the people who distrust them) for the
parliament (Riigikogu) and government has been on the positive side for the last two years since the
time of the previous government and has increased significantly compared to March. Both the
government and parliament are trusted by over half of the population.
-37
-34
-24
-27
-26
-23
-24
-20
-11
-14
-9
-1
54
57
56
64
64
63
67
71
72
75
86
95
17
23
32
37
38
40
43
51
61
61
77
94
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Parliament (Riigikogu)
Government
Court system
Prime Minister
European Union
NATO
Local municipalities
President
Defence League
Defence Forces
Police
Rescue Service
Distrust compeletely/rather Trust completely/rather Balance
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 16
Local governments (trusted by 67%) and the prime minister (64%) have a somewhat higher level of
confidence compared to the government and the parliament, which are roughly at the same level as
confidence in the EU and NATO. The judicial system has a lower level of confidence than them (56%),
although this is an institution which people find hard to assess (21% of respondents answer cannot
say).
The level of confidence in institutions between Estonians and respondents of other nationalities is quite
different (Figure 5).
The difference in confidence between Estonians and respondents of other nationalities is relatively small
when it comes to the Rescue Services, judicial system, the police and border guard, and the European
Union, but the differences are significant toward NATO, the Defence Forces, and the Defence League. A
20% difference is also for confidence in the President of the Republic.
For a long time there was also a big difference between Estonians and respondents of other
nationalities when it came to confidence in the government and the parliament (Estonians had a much
greater confidence compared to respondents of other nationalities), but already in spring 2018 the
levels of confidence were equal and in October 2018 Russian-speaking respondents had a little more
confidence in the parliament, government, and the prime minister than even Estonian respondents.
However, confidence in local government is 11% higher among respondents of other nationalities
compared to Estonian respondents.
Figure 5. Confidence in institutions in the eyes of Estonians and non-Estonians:
October 2018 (% of those who trust the institutions completely and rather trust them;
N = all respondents)
57
59
52
70
61
37
75
57
46
54
81
93
52
56
57
62
65
75
64
77
84
85
89
97
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Parliament (Riigikogu)
Government
Court system
Prime Minister
European Union
NATO
Local municipalities
President
Defence League
Defence Forces
Police
Rescue Service
Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 17
2.1 Confidence in defence structures
The Defence Forces, which holds 3rd place in the trustworthiness ranking after the Rescue Services,
was trusted by 75% of the population of Estonia as at October 2018. The difference in the
assessment of the Defence Forces between Estonian- and Russian-speaking respondents is still very
large—it is trusted by 85% Estonians and 54% non-Estonians (Figure 6).
The Defence League is placed among the most trustworthy institutions right after the Defence Forces—
as at October 2018, 72% of the Estonian population (71% a year ago) trusted the Defence
League, 85% of Estonians and 46 of non-Estonians. (Figure 7).
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 18
Figure 6. Confidence in the Defence Forces in 2000–2018; comparison of the assessments by Estonians and other nationalities
(% of those who trust it completely or rather trust it; N = all respondents)
Figure 7. Confidence in the Defence League in 2000–2018; a comparison of assessments by Estonians and other nationalities
(% of those who trust it completely or rather trust it; N = all respondents)
5864 59
6874 71 73 73
67
75 7579
7476 74
80 7884
79 8176
81 81 80 83 83
7679
7582
84 83 8278 78 77
7579 76 77
75
53
58
56
6773
64
74
8479 81 79
74
82 8480
85 84 8185 84 87 89 88 87
91 90 90 91 92 8891
8690 90 92 93 90 91 90 90 92
89 87 85
3935
40 40 4549
5449 52 53
61
52
6055 56
5058 60
6865
75
6066
48
5962
5862 62
4953
48
6067
6258
49 5147 45
51 5153 54
0
20
40
60
80
100
01/2
000
05/2
000
10/2
000
02/2
001
06/2
001
10/2
001
03/2
002
06/2
002
10/2
002
02/2
003
06/2
003
10/2
003
02/2
004
06/2
004
10/2
004
03/2
005
06/2
005
11/2
005
05/2
006
09/2
006
12/2
006
06/2
007
01/2
008
08/2
008
01/2
009
05/2
009
01/2
010
09/2
010
08/2
011
10/2
011
03/2
012
10/2
012
03/2
013
10/2
013
03/2
014
11/2
014
03/2
015
10/2
015
03/2
016
10/2
016
03/2
017
10/2
017
03/2
018
10/2
018
ALL Estonians Other nationalities
3945
4248
5357 58 58 56
5956 54
58 59 57
6865 66
6265 64
6864
6871
68 67 6964
74 75 73 7471 70 71 71 71 71
74 72
39 41 39
4854
5055
64 64 66 64 6568 67 66 67 67 66
7774 74
77 79 77 7975
80 82 8279
84
76
85 85 8589
86 85 86 86 87 86 8784
2023 22 22
25 2730
23
40 4045
36 3832 31
34
4138
4742
46
33 33 34
43 42 42 4337 38
35 36
4851
4642 40
36 37 36 3740
46 46
0
20
40
60
80
100
01/2
000
05/2
000
10/2
000
02/2
001
06/2
001
10/2
001
03/2
002
06/2
002
10/2
002
02/2
003
06/2
003
10/2
003
02/2
004
06/2
004
10/2
004
03/2
005
06/2
005
11/2
005
05/2
006
09/2
006
12/2
006
06/2
007
01/2
008
08/2
008
01/2
009
05/2
009
01/2
010
09/2
010
08/2
011
10/2
011
03/2
012
10/2
012
03/2
013
10/2
013
03/2
014
11/2
014
03/2
015
10/2
015
03/2
016
10/2
016
03/2
017
10/2
017
03/2
018
10/2
018
ALL Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 19
3 Security and threats
The third chapter provides an overview of how the topic of security in Estonia and the world is viewed
by the public, what are the factors threatening the security in the coming years, and what would help
to better guarantee Estonia’s security.
3.1 Security in the world
The question in which the respondents were asked to assess changes in world security is presented in
the following wording and has been asked since the year 2000: What do you think, will the world
become more secure and the risk of military conflicts reduce, or, conversely, will the
instability increase in the world and the probability of military conflicts grow in the coming
decade?
The opinion that instability and the probability of military conflicts will grow in the world in the coming
decade exceeded 70% in spring 2015. Although in the fall of 2016, the proportion of respondents who
provided such assessment decreased, it still remained high. As of fall 2017, when an increase in
instability was predicted by 66% of the respondents, the feel of threat has started to decrease—in
March 2018, 61% of the respondents thought that the world will become more unsafe, while in this
survey it was 52%. 13% believe that the world becomes safer in the coming decade and 24% think
that there will be no change (Figure 8).
The sense of threat has declined for both Estonians and non-Estonians: from 68% to 57% among
Estonians, from 46% to 42% among non-Estonians.
Figure 8. Situation in the world in the coming decade, 2015–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents)
10
15
16
9
7
12
7
10
9
10
13
24
30
31
16
19
21
16
20
19
22
24
57
46
42
70
68
57
71
63
66
61
52
9
9
11
5
6
10
6
7
6
7
10
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other (10/2017)
Other (03/2018)
Other (10/2018)
Estonian (10/2017)
Estonian (03/2018)
Estonian (10/2018)
NATIONALITY
2015/10
2016/10
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Situation will become more secure
Situation is not going to change
Increased risk of military conflicts/ situation less secure
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 20
The long-term trend along with the proportions of the two opposing views is presented on Figure 9. It
shows that from the spring of 2014 when the crisis in Ukraine emerged, the proportion of respondents
fearing the increase of instability and military conflicts has stayed above 60% exceeding even 70% in
three surveys. It has only gone down to under 60% in the last survey while still remaining high.
Figure 9. Situation in the world in the coming decade; 2000–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents)
2523
12141513171718
1320
1213151212141215
117
11141815
9141312
151510 8 7 7 7 1010 9 1013
40
25
53
43414750
4134
4340
5149474450
56
434848
65
56
454444
63
49
5756
4650
6266
707172
6358
6661
52
0
20
40
60
80
01/2
000
06/2
001
10/2
001
03/2
002
06/2
002
10/2
002
02/2
003
06/2
003
10/2
003
02/2
004
06/2
004
10/2
004
03/2
005
06/2
005
11/2
005
05/2
006
09/2
006
12/2
006
06/2
007
01/2
008
08/2
008
01/2
009
05/2
009
01/2
010
09/2
010
08/2
011
10/2
011
03/2
012
10/2
012
03/2
013
10/2
013
03/2
014
11/2
014
03/2
015
10/2
015
03/2
016
10/2
016
03/2
017
10/2
017
03/2
018
10/2
018
Situation will become more secure Increased risk of military conflicts/ situation less secure
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 21
3.2 Security in Estonia
The question about the security in Estonia was presented in the following word ing:
What do you think, what will the situation in Estonia be like? Will the population be living in
more secure or insecure conditions ten years from now?
The security situation in Estonia is perceived to be more positive compared to the situation
in the world in general and similarly to the situation in the rest of the world, the sense of threat has
also gone down with respect to Estonia. A more secure development is predicted by 30%, insecurity by
only 19%. The assessments are similar to March 2015. Compared to Russian-speaking respondents,
there are more respondents who predict both more security was well as security among Estonians,
Russian-speaking respondents predict more that the situation will remain the same (Figure 10).
Figure 10. Situation in Estonia in the coming decade, 2015–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents)
22
19
25
30
25
32
32
23
20
27
23
30
42
43
44
29
36
31
32
31
34
33
38
35
20
19
13
28
25
21
19
31
29
25
23
19
16
19
18
13
14
16
17
15
16
15
16
16
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other (10/2017)
Other (03/2018)
Other (10/2018)
Estonian (10/2017)
Estonian (03/2018)
Estonian (10/2018)
NATIONALITY
2015/03
2015/10
2016/10
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Situation will become more secure
Situation is not going to change
Increased risk of military conflicts/ situation less secure
Don't know
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 22
3.3 Threats to world security
The respondents were asked to assess the effect various factors have on peace and security in the
world. Compared to previous surveys, the list of threats presented to respondents to assess was
changed a little. The activities of the Islamic State were not included, which up to now held first place
among the threats. Cyber-attacks and the extensive spread of misinformation and fake news were
included. Both of the included categorises rose among the four most important threats.
If we consider the assessments “certainly” and “to some extent that too” together, then all the factors
listed in the survey are considered to be a threat to world security by more than 60% and five factors
by more than 80% of the respondents.
The most important threat is perceived to be activities of terrorist networks, though its threat
level is decreasing. Terrorist networks are perceived as certainly dangerous by 50% and to some extent
by 37% of the respondents.
Cyber-attacks are deemed to be equally dangerous: certainly by 50% and to some extent by 35% of
the respondents.
The migration of refugees and asylum seekers into Europe occupies third place, which back in
spring 2017 was considered to be a certain threat by 57%, and this time by 44% of the respondents.
Spread of misinformation and fake news comes fourth (certainly 37%, to some extent 44%). These are
followed by a worldwide economic crisis (certainly 36%, to some extent 45%) and global climate
change (32% and 45%).
Although Russia’s attempts to restore its authority in neighbouring countries received more
assessments of “certainly” than the previously mentioned ones (37%), together with the answer “to
some extent” the Russian threat has retreated to almost the end of the ranking of threat factors (70%).
30% of respondents also perceive organised crime as certainly dangerous. The war in Syria and East
Ukraine and North Korea’s actions have started to lose their actuality: less than 30% of
respondents think they are certainly threatening world security, although most of the respondents still
think they are dangerous to some extent.
Less serious threats are deemed to be the domination of US in the world, conflicts between rich and
poor countries, the growth of China’s power and influence in the world, and spread of epidemics.
Though these threats, too, pass the level of 60% together when combined with the answer “to some
extent” (Figure 11).
Compared to the previous survey, only the perception of the danger of global climate change has
increased, the perception of the danger of worldwide economic crisis, Russia’s influence, organised
crime, conflicts between rich and poor countries, and epidemics has stayed on the same level. The
actuality of other threats has decreased.
Russian-speaking respondents deem the activities of terrorist networks, organised crime, the influence
of the US in the world, and spread of epidemics as more dangerous compared to Estonians; a rather
similar assessment is given to the migration of refugees and asylum seekers into Europe, spread of
misinformation and fake news, worldwide economic crisis, global climate change, and organised crime
(see Figure 12).
The rest of the threats are perceived as more dangerous by Estonians compared to respondents of
other nationalities. The biggest difference is in how dangerous Russia’s activities to restore its
authority in neighbouring countries are perceived. Among Estonians, it is deemed as second most
dangerous (49% of Estonians deem it as certainly dangerous), among Russian-speaking respondents, it
holds a place among the three less important threats together with North Korea and China.
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 23
Figure 11. Threats to peace and security in the world 2017–2018 (%; N = all respondents)
505353
61
50
445049
57
37
3737
29
3636
26
322929
22
303028
27403943
273029
263030
252422
222323
2144
50
2026
19
373637
32
35
424040
36
44
3333
38
4546
52
454649
52
4648
49
46444541
4548
45
494746
5055
52
4647
44
4538
34
4646
48
6664
6
7674
8
212126
99
13
162117
19
151617
14889
1513
17
151416
1312
17
2122
24
1899
1615
20
7543
9
7443
11
997
1099
7457
966
13887
1399
1098
1299
1189
1697
181313
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2018/102018/03
Activities of the terrorist network 2017/102017/03
Cyber attacks 2018/10
2018/102018/03
The migration of refugees to Europe 2017/102017/03
False information and fake news 2018/10
2018/102018/03
Russian activities in restoring its authority…
2018/102018/03
Global economis crisis 2017/10
2018/102018/03
Global climate change 2017/102017/03
2018/102018/03
Organised crime 2017/10
2018/102018/03
Military conflict in Syria 2017/102017/03
2018/102018/03
Economic and military capability of the…
2018/102018/03
Military conflict in Ukraine 2017/10
2018/102018/03
Contradictions between rich and poor…
2018/102018/03
Spread of epidemics 2017/10
Activities of North-Korea 2018/102018/03
Nuclear weapons in Northern Korea 2017/10
2018/102018/03
China’s growing influence 2017/10
Certainly To some extent Certainly not Don't know
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 24
Figure 12. Threats to peace and security in the world in October 2018, answers “this certainly” (%; comparison of Estonians and Non-Estonians)
24
26
20
26
28
24
31
30
33
36
49
37
45
57
47
12
10
25
23
20
34
18
30
32
35
12
38
42
34
54
0 20 40 60
China’s growing influence
North-Korea
Spread of epidemics
Contradictions between rich and poorcountries
Military conflict in Ukraine
Economic and military capability of theUSA
Military conflict in Syria
Organised crime
Global climate change
Global economis crisis
Russian activities in restoring its authority
False information and fake news
The migration of refugees to Europe
Cyber attacks
Activities of the terrorist network
Other nationalities Estonians
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 25
3.4 Threats to Estonia
The respondents were presented with 15 different potential threats to Estonia and asked to assess the
probability of their occurrence in the forthcoming years to determine the probability of threats to
Estonia. Similarly to global threats, the spread of fake news and additionally the spread of hate speech
were included in the list. Threats that were listed previously, an explosion of an oil-carrying train or fuel
terminal was replaced with a vast industrial disaster and extensive environmental pollution (Figure 13).
There are four main threats to Estonia, the occurrence of which in the following years are considered
probable or rather probable by more than half of the respondents. Year after year, the view that there
may be an organised attack against the Estonian state information systems, i.e. a cyber-
attack has increased (67% of respondents think it is very or rather probable). Second place was taken
by the newly introduced spread of fake news (65%). Third place, viewed equally probable also in
March, was taken by the belief that some foreign country may interfere in Estonian politics or
economy in order to influence these in their own interests (58%). Fourth place was taken by
extensive marine pollution which was considered very or rather probable by 53% of the respondents.
The probability of marine pollution is considered higher compared to the March survey.
Over 40% of respondents also consider probable the spread of hate speech (45%) and an extensive
environmental pollution (43%), the proportion of those who view the occurrence of other problems as
very or rather probable remains already below 30%.
An extensive or limited military attack against Estonia is considered the least probable by the
respondents (18–20% of the respondents consider it very or rather probable).
Even the assessment of Estonia’s internal threats reveals important differences between the responses
of Estonians and non-Estonians. Estonians consider most of the dangers more probable than the
Russian-speaking respondents.
An extensive marine pollution and attack against Estonian citizens in a foreign state are deemed
equally probable. The collapse of Estonia’s economy is considered a little more probable by respondents
of other nationalities compared to Estonians.
The greatest difference occurs in the assessment on the probability of cyber-attacks (76% and 48%
respectively), interference by a foreign state in Estonia’s politics or economy is a lso feared more by
Estonians (61% and 50%). While a large-scale or limited military attack is considered probable by a 19
to 23% of Estonians, the proportion of non-Estonians who consider this threat probable falls between
13 and 14% (see Figure 14).
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 26
Figure 13. Probability of different threats endangering Estonia in the forthcoming years, March/October 2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
1
2
2
2
5
3
2
2
3
3
3
6
3
4
4
4
5
8
11
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10
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20
16
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15
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21
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26
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24
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12
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9
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10
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48
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40
51
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40
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33
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30
34
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25
18
22
17
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21
21
19
15
15
11
12
8
7
10
8
6
6
6
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2018/03
2018/10
Limited military attack against a strategic site
2018/03
2018/10
Large-scale military attack by a foreign country
2018/03
2018/10
Economic collapse of Estonia
2018/03
2018/10
Mass street riots
2018/03
2018/10
Nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station
2018/10
Major industrial accident
2018/03
2018/10
Attack on the citizens of Estonia in a foreign…
2018/03
2018/10
between population groups
Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds
2018/03
2018/10
Act of terrorism
2018/10
Extensive pollution of the natural environment
2018/10
Hate speech
2018/03
2018/10
Extensive marine pollution
2018/03
2018/10
policy or economy
Foreign state interfering into Estonia's
2018/10
Fake news
2018/03
2018/10
against the Estonian state information systems
Organised attacks (cyber-attacks)
Very probable Rather probable Don't know Rather improbable Completely improbable
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 27
Figure 14. Probability of different threats endangering Estonia in the forthcoming years; comparison of assessments among Estonians and non-Estonians; October 2018
(%; N = all respondents)
1
2
2
2
5
2
3
2
4
2
42
33
54
3
5
9
7
7
13
11
10
12
23
16
25
10
29
12
17
12
21
16
15
18
19
15
22
1624
2323
1926
22
24
31
37
33
35
43
43
38
38
45
41
38
47
0 20 40 60 80
other nationalities
Estonians
Limited military attack against a strategic site
other nationalities
Estonians
Large-scale military attack by a foreign country
other nationalities
Estonians
Economic collapse of Estonia
other nationalities
Estonians
Mass street riots
other nationalities
Estonians
Nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station…
other nationalities
Estonians
Major industrial accident
other nationalities
Estonians
Attack on the citizens of Estonia in a foreign…
other nationalities
Estonians
between population groups
Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds
other nationalities
Estonians
Act of terrorism
other nationalities
Estonians
Extensive pollution of the natural environment
other nationalities
Estonians
Hate speech
other nationalities
Estonians
Extensive marine pollution
other nationalities
Estonians
policy or economy
Foreign state interfering into Estonia's
other nationalities
Estonians
Fake news
other nationalities
Estonians
against the Estonian state information systems
Organised attacks (cyber-attacks)
Very probable Rather probable
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 28
3.5 Media coverage of security threats
Since the fall of 2017, the survey included an additional question on how the media coverage with
regard to security threats is assessed. The question had the following wording:
How do you feel, does the Estonian media write and talk about military threats to Estonia too
much and too often, just enough or rather too little?
The proportion of respondents who feel that military threats to Estonia are too much and too often
written and talked about has gone down over the years. It is hard to tell if it is due to change in
attitude or change in the share of such information covered by the media.
While more than half of Estonians believe that the military threats to Estonia are spoken and written
about just enough, the majority of non-Estonians think that this topic is covered too much—though the
number of people who believe that has decreased significantly over the years.
Only 11% of the respondents think that military threats are spoken about too little (see Figure 15).
Figure 15. Does the Estonian media write and talk about military threats to Estonia too much and too often, just enough or rather too little? 2017/2018 (%; N = all respondents)
52
48
43
32
24
21
39
32
28
29
34
33
54
58
56
46
50
48
7
6
6
9
12
13
8
10
11
12
12
18
5
6
10
7
8
13
0 20 40 60 80 100
10/2017
03/2018
10/2018
Other nationalities
10/2017
03/2018
10/2018
Estonians
10/2017
03/2018
10/2018
ALL
too much/ too often just enough too little cannot say
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 29
3.6 Security guarantees
All throughout previous surveys, Estonia’s membership in NATO has ranked first among important
factors that would ensure maximum security to Estonia according to the respondents. It is mentioned
by 57% of the respondents as one of the three most important factors this time as well. It is a little
less compared to previous surveys, but it can be explained by the inclusion of one additional category
among the possible answers. In October’s survey, we included the category of “defence will of
residents”, which did indeed rise to be the second most important security guarantee with 39%. The
development of Estonia’s independent defence capability holds 3rd place with 29% (Figure 16).
These three factors are followed by, mainly due to the influence of respondents of other nationalities,
cooperation and good relations with Russia, which is named among the three most important
factors by 46% of non-Estonian respondents and only by 15% of Estonian-speaking respondents.
Both Estonians and non-Estonian respondents give more or less equal support to Baltic defence
cooperation (20%), membership in the EU (18%), cooperation with the Nordic countries (12%), and
participation in international missions (7%).
Estonians mentioned the alliance with the US and the permanent presence of allied forces in Estonia
more often than Russian-speaking respondents. However, respondents of other nationalities value
memberships in international organisations (UN and OSCE) more than Estonians.
Figure 16. Security guarantees for Estonia (up to 3 of the most important factors);
comparison of assessments among the Estonians and other nationalities, October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
6
7
13
10
14
22
7
10
17
46
32
36
29
3
8
5
13
7
16
23
19
22
15
28
41
70
4
7
7
12
9
18
18
16
20
25
29
39
57
0 20 40 60 80
Don't know
Participation in international military
operations
Membership in OSCE
Defence cooperation with the Nordic
countries
Membership in UN
Membership in European Union
Permanent presence of allied forces in
Estonia
Good relations and cooperation with the
USA
Defense cooperation between Baltic states
Cooperation and good relations with Russia
Development of Estonia's independent
defence capabilities
Defence willingness of people
Membership in NATO
ALL Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 30
4 Defence willingness among the population of Estonia
Defence willingness among the population of Estonia is measured with three questions. So -called
passive defence willingness is expressed through the opinion on whether Estonia should be defended in
case a foreign enemy attacks (“If Estonia is attacked by any country, should we, in any case, provide
armed resistance, regardless of the attacker?”), active defence willingness is expressed through the
person’s willingness to participate in national defence with his/her own skills and competence (“If
Estonia is attacked, are you ready to participate in defence activities using your own competence and
skills?”). The proportion of those expressing the will to leave Estonia in case of an attack is also
mapped. Defence willingness is also related to the topics of how much the people are informed about
the ways in which one can protect Estonia in the event of a possible attack—if people have no
understanding of their potential role in the event of a military conflict, they cannot be expected to show
high defence willingness.
4.1 Attitudes towards the necessity of resistance
The proportion of respondents who find armed resistance necessary has remained steady near 80%,
sometimes under that threshold, sometimes over. In October 2018, similarly to March, 79% of the
Estonia’s population considered armed resistance certainly or probably necessary (Figure 17).
Estonian-speaking respondents tend to consider armed resistance more necessary than people of other
nationalities; however, while there are no differences in attitude among Estonians compared to March,
support for resistance among respondents of other nationalities has increased significantly. Resistance
is deemed certainly necessary according to 51% of the Estonians and 41% of the Russian-speaking
respondents. 11% of Estonian respondents and 10% of respondents of other nationalities believe that
resistance is not necessary, but the latter include much more respondents who answered “cannot say”
(16%).
Figure 17. Necessity for the provision of armed resistance if Estonia is attacked by any
country; 2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
The proportion of respondents who express passive defence willingness has also been high in past
surveys, although in a chronological perspective the proport ion of the viewpoint’s supporters has been
rising steadily (See Figure 18). A comparison of the trend among Estonians and respondents of other
nationalities has been presented in Figure 19.
37
42
51
51
47
47
48
33
32
31
30
33
32
31
18
16
8
8
9
10
10
8
6
8
9
7
8
8
4
4
2
2
4
3
3
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2018/03
2018/10
OTHER NATIONALITIES
2018/03
2018/10
ESTONIANS
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
ALL
Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 31
Figure 18. Necessity of armed resistance if Estonia is attacked by any country; 2000–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
Figure 19. Proportion of the proponents of armed resistance in the event of an attack; comparison of Estonians and non-Estonians 2006–2018 (% of those considering resistance certainly and probably necessary; N = all respondents)
68
56 5966
61 64 6559
69 6964 64
71 68 64 66 67 66 69 6978 77 73 71
78 77 77 74 74 7378
7379 79 82 79 83 79 81 77
83 80 79 79
1926 29
22 24 23 23 23 25 2430 31
23 24 24 25 24 24 20 2416 12 17 19 15 14 17 18 19 17 17
2217 17 15 11 11 13 11 14
9 11 11 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
01/2
000
05/2
000
10/2
000
02/2
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017
10/2
017
03/2
018
10/2
018
We should certainly/probably provide armed resistance We certainly/probably shouldn't provide armed resistance
69
7780
7773
79 79 80 79 8075
81
7478 79
82 83
89
82 81 82
8884 82 81
69
80
70
6366
7773
68
62 63
68 70 71
8380
83
70 71 7168
65
72 70 7074
40
60
80
100
09/2
00
6
12/2
00
6
06/2
00
7
01/2
00
8
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9
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6
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6
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01
7
10/2
01
7
03/2
01
8
10/2
01
8
Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 32
4.2 Willingness to participate in defence activities
The number of those willing to participate personally in defence activities (so-called active defence
willingness) is lower than the proportion of those supporting armed resistance at the state level. While
armed resistance is considered necessary by 79%, 60% of the population would be willing to
participate in defence activities personally to the extent of their own capabilities and skills
(Figure 20).
28% of the population of Estonia would be certainly willing and 32% probably willing to participate in
defence activities to the extent of their own capabilities and skills. 29% of the respondents would
certainly or probably not be willing to participate personally in defence activities.
Since conscript service is only compulsory for Estonian citizens, the difference between the attitudes of
Estonians and respondents of other nationalities in the matter of active defence willingness is
predictably greater than it is in the case of passive defence willingness. While 65% of Estonians
would be willing to participate personally in defence activities, the respective indicator for
non-Estonians is only 48%. This indicator is 57% among Estonian citizens of other nationalities (5%
higher compared to March), 37% among Russian citizens and 32% among respondents with
undetermined citizenship.
When interpreting active defence willingness, it should be considered that participation in national
defence is first and foremost seen as armed resistance that is traditionally considered the task of
reservists and men. Consequently, the readiness to contribute is inevitably lower among female and
older respondents (71% of male respondents would be willing to participate in defence activities, while
only half of women feel the same; only 48% of respondents over 60 years of age would be willing to
participate in defence activities).
Figure 20. Willingness to participate in defence activities if Estonia is attacked;
2017–2018 comparison (%; N= all respondents)
If we consider only the willingness of male citizens to participate in national defence, the picture on
active defence willingness becomes more positive. 77% of male citizens are willing to participate in
national defence, 79% of Estonians and 71% of respondents of other nationalities (see Table 3).
18
40
18
32
31
29
29
28
32
31
30
33
30
25
28
32
13
10
21
7
8
8
12
11
16
11
12
15
15
18
15
14
21
8
19
13
16
19
16
15
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Female
Male
GENDER (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 33
Table 3 – Willingness to certainly or probably participate in defence activities among male citizens by age groups; October 2018
NATIONALITY ALL 15-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Estonian 79% 76% 88% 78% 69%
Other 71% 67% 96% 63% X
ALL men / citizens 77% 73% 89% 76% 65%
X –The age group of non-Estonian men over 65 years of age included only 5 respondents, due to which
the result cannot be viewed as statistically reliable.
If we view the temporal change of participatory willingness by nationality and citizenship, it becomes
evident that in 2006, defence willingness among non-Estonians with Estonian citizenship was at a
comparable level with that of Estonians. After the Bronze Night events in 2007 this willingness dropped
significantly among non-Estonians with Estonian citizenship, those with undetermined citizenship and
those with Russian citizenship (Figure 21).
The years 2013–2014 saw an improvement in the defence willingness among non-Estonian citizens, yet
it fell under 50% again at the end of 2014. In the last two years the active defence willingness of the
Russian-speaking population has again exceeded 50% and in the last survey conducted in October has
reached the highest level since 2007
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 34
Figure 21. Proportion of the population willing to participate in defence activities in the event of an attack; comparison of Estonians, non-
Estonian citizens and non-citizens 2000–2018 (% of those certainly and probably willing to participate; N = all respondents)
67
6063
61
67
61
68 6769 73
70
6973
70 7174
71 70
64 64
6966
71 7074
6971
62
70
6266 64
6865
67
60
68
6264
6266 66
64 65
53
40
52 5451
50
59 57
66
71
74
66
65 64 6358
64 6357
64
65 60
4846
53
42
54 52 51
3943
40
55 54 54
4547
4447
52 51
46
52
57
43
33
44
52
44
61
59
49
6663
6157
5963
5658 59
63
51 51
56
49
43 4144
52
52 52
46
36 3538 39 38 36
45
38
4339
33
43
3537 38
0
20
40
60
80
01/2
00
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00
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9
01/2
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6
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7
10/2
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7
03/2
01
8
10/2
01
8
Estonians Non-Estonians/citizens Non-Estonians/non-citizens
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 35
4.3 Desire to leave Estonia in the event of a military threat
In case Estonia is attacked, one fifth of Estonians would consider leaving Estonia—this
indicator has been at roughly the same level for several years now. In such a situation, 5% would
certainly endeavour to leave and 14% would probably do it. 70% of the population would certainly not
or probably not endeavour to leave Estonia in the event of a threat (Figure 22).
The people most prone to leave Estonia are women (certainly or probably 20%) and younger people:
39% of people under 20 years of age, 27% between 20 and 29 years of age, and 28% between 30 and
39 years of age would consider leaving.
From 50 years of age on, the wish to leave Estonia drops rapidly and the smallest number of potential
leavers are among people above the age of 60. 22% of non-Estonians and 16% Estonians would
probably leave.
Figure 22. Probability of leaving Estonia in case Estonia is attacked; 2017–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents)
When taking into account the whole timeline from the beginning of the survey series, it can be seen
that the non-Estonian respondents have expressed increasingly higher willingness to leave since the
year 2007; the willingness rose to as high as 42% in 2013 and has remained close to 30% since then.
The proportion of those wanting to leave has been below 30% in the last three surveys.
Estonians’ willingness to leave rose to nearly 20% during the recession years from 2010 to 2013. While
it showed an increasing trend in the last surveys, the percentage of probable leavers has declined again
in October (see Figure 23).
2
2
5
6
11
11
5
5
6
4
7
5
5
5
12
14
22
16
28
15
12
16
12
15
15
14
3
10
11
16
23
15
12
10
17
10
10
13
11
18
26
36
31
26
22
23
30
20
29
27
30
26
72
50
34
25
24
24
45
43
41
45
41
37
44
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
60 +
50-59
40-49
30-39
20-29
15-19
AGE (10/2018)
Female
Male
GENDER (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY…
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 36
Figure 23. Proportion of those desiring to leave Estonia in the event of an attack; comparison of Estonians and non-Estonians 2000–2018 (% of those desiring to leave certainly and those who would probably do it; N = all respondents)
12 13
17 16
1315
12 12
15
11 11 10
1513 13 13
15 1513 13 13
1012
16 15 14
20
17
2118 19
20 1921
16
19
16 1614
18 19 20 19
16
19
22
2523
18
21
14
18
21
15 16
19
24
2022
24 25 24
16
24
1316
2123 24
26 2527 27
3638
42
37
3330 30 31 32 32 32
27 27 26
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
01/2
00
0
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00
0
10/2
00
0
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00
1
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00
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00
7
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8
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8
01/2
00
9
05/2
00
9
01/2
01
0
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01
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01
1
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01
1
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2
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4
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5
10/2
01
5
03/2
01
6
10/2
01
6
03/2
01
7
10/2
01
7
03/2
01
8
10/2
01
8
Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 37
4.4 Ability to act in the event of a potential attack
In order to obtain an overview of the population’s awareness in terms of defence, the respondents were
asked to tell whether they considered themselves to be adequately informed about what to do in the
event of an impending foreign attack. The results show that people consider their ability to act in
the event of a potential attack to be rather poor—only a little over one fifth of respondents
answered that they have at least general knowledge about what to do to defend the country in such a
situation, while 70% consider themselves rather or certainly not informed.
Assessments on awareness have fallen back to the 2016 level (Figure 24). This could be explained by
the fact that the need to better inform the population in a crisis situation has been publicly talked about
more than previously.
Figure 24. Being informed about the possibilities of what to do for defending Estonia in the event of an impending foreign attack; 2016–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
Men consider their awareness to be higher than women (31% vs. 15%), which could be explained by
more contact with national defence structures (undergoing conscript service, Defence League).
However, assessment of one’s awareness has declined among both men and women.
Difference in awareness between Estonians and respondents of other nationalities is decreasing,
although it is slightly better among Estonians (24% vs. 20% respectively).
Respondents below 30 years of age consider themselves as best informed (33%), yet the awareness
drops as the age increases and only 16% of respondents over 60 years of age consider themselves
informed.
3
4
11
11
12
8
5
10
6
8
7
9
9
8
7
13
15
11
15
21
25
10
21
14
16
14
19
17
19
15
11
6
5
6
4
7
7
8
8
7
10
6
5
8
8
26
41
46
43
37
32
37
37
32
39
35
36
36
35
37
47
34
27
25
26
28
41
24
40
30
34
30
33
30
33
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
60 +
50-59
40-49
30-39
20-29
15-19
AGE (10/2018)
Female
Male
GENDER (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2016/10
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Yes, sufficiently Generally yes Don't know Rather not Certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 38
4.5 On which topics is more information required
Throughout the surveys, the population has assessed its level of being informed as very low in view of
the topic of what to do in the event of a foreign attack and consequently, since November 2014, the
survey has included a question about the topics on which people require the most information.
Respondents had to choose three topics that are the most important to them out of the nine given.
The ranking and level of importance of the topics has not changed by much during this survey period.
The four most important topics highlighted in all of the last surveys are related to the role of civilians in
the case of a conflict: how the general public is informed (46%), how to act when one has
entered a combat zone as a civilian (34%), how evacuation is organised (32%), and how to
solve basic household problems (32%). The rest of the topics are already less relevant: a fifth of
the respondents are interested in what are their duties in national defence and how mobilisation is
organised, and these topics are more important to male respondents to an above average degree
(Figure 25).
Figure 25. On which topics do you require more information? Comparison of men and women
October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
The difference in information needs of male and female respondents is noticeable. Even though men
are also concerned with the three topics listed as the most important in the general ranking, they show
greater than average interest in how the mobilisation will be organised, their duties in national defence,
and the ways in which civilians can contribute to supporting the military
Women would like more information on how to act as a civilian, about evacuation, on how to solve
basic everyday problems.
14
24
24
19
28
26
30
31
44
10
13
16
21
17
37
34
37
48
11
18
19
20
22
32
32
34
46
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
What are my obligations concerning
national defence in my workplace
What are you obligations in national
defence
How can I support the military as civilian
How will public services be available and
which ones
How is the mobilisation organised
How are primary household problems
solved
How will the population be evacuated from
the battle area
How to act in the event when you have
entered a battle area as a civilian
How will the public be informed
ALL Female Male
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 39
5 Defence capability of Estonia
The fifth chapter reflects attitudes within the population in relation to Estonia’s defence capability, the
volume of defence expenditures, and the state’s activities regarding the development of national
defence.
5.1 The importance of national defence capability among other
areas of public interest that need improving
In surveys conducted since 2000, the respondents have been asked a few of times to choose up to five
areas of public interest that should receive the most attention from the government from a given list .
The list included 14 different topics. This question was last asked in March 2017.
There have been no major changes as to which areas of public interest are deemed important. The
most important ones were to increase the public well-being (67%), improve access to healthcare
services (57%), and increase social security (56%). While in March 2017 ensuring economic
development came in second, now the topic has dropped to fourth (54%). People know that the
economy is growing but the question is how much does the ordinary person gain from that (Figure 26).
All other topics are already less important in the view of the public, strengthening the nation’s defence
capability comes in with only 17% at 10th place out of 14. For example, improvement of environmental
protection is deemed more important (22%), while regulation of immigration, integration policy,
democratic governing of the state are deemed less important.
Figure 26. Which of these areas in the Estonian society should the government pay most
attention to at the present time? March 2017/ October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
11
12
13
16
17
22
23
28
28
30
54
56
57
67
12
14
7
16
20
19
25
29
33
29
59
53
55
66
0 20 40 60 80
Integration of different nations
Immigration regulation
Democratic government
Increasing population growth
Increasing national defence capability
Improvement of environmental protection
Harmonious regional development of Estonia
Development of education and culture
Rural and agricultural development
Ensuring collective security, fighting with crime
Ensuring economic development
Increasing social security
Availability of health services
Public well-being, living standard
Mar-17 Oct-18
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 40
5.2 Assessment of the defence capability of Estonia
Respondents were asked to say whether they think Estonia is defendable until help arrives from the
allies in the event of an armed foreign attack. Since autumn 2014, the proportion of respondents who
believe that it would be possible to defend Estonia in the event of an armed foreign attack has
exceeded 50%. In this survey, 53% of respondents believed that defending Estonia is certainly or
probably possible. The percentage of respondents who answered that way was the same in March.
The proportion of respondents who find that Estonia cannot be defended is 31% (Figure 27).
Figure 27. Assessment of the defence capability of Estonia in the event of an armed foreign
attack; 2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
Estonians have more faith in Estonia’s independent defence capability than respondents of other
nationalities: 59% and 42% respectively. This indicator has dropped among Estonians by 2% (61% in
March), but increased by 6% among respondents of other nationalities (36%).
The opinions of Estonian citizens of other nationalities differ greatly from the ones held by Russian
citizens and those with undetermined citizenship. While 47% of Estonian citizens of other nationalities
believe that Estonia is defendable, only 32% of Russian citizens and 30% of respondents with
undetermined citizenship agree.
8
16
14
14
13
13
34
43
42
38
40
40
23
11
12
13
17
16
24
26
24
27
24
25
11
4
8
8
6
6
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 41
5.3 Views on the volume of defence expenditures
Support for national defence funding has been high among the Estonian population since the beginning
of the survey.
After joining NATO, there was a period of a few years (primarily during the period of 2006–2008) when
a third or even greater proportion of the population considered an increase in defence expenditures
necessary. At the time, there was a lot of talk about the necessity to conform to NATO requirements
and raise defence expenditures to 2% of the GDP
After the 2% criterion was met and even exceeded in recent years, the support for an increase in
defence expenditures has dwindled in the recent surveys and the majority of the respondents wish to
keep the expenses at the current level. Support for an increase in defence expenditures also fell during
the period of 2009–2013 due to the recession.
Assessing the volume of Estonian defence expenditures today, half of the respondents think that
defence expenditures should be kept at the current level (50%) (Figure 28). An increase as
well as decrease in defence expenditures is favoured equally by one fifth of the population.
10% of the respondents do not have an opinion.
The attitudes of Estonians and Russian-speaking respondents differ greatly. In the last three years, the
proportion of Russian-speaking residents who favour cuts in defence expenditures has been at over
40%. In October, 44% of non-Estonians desired a decrease in defence expenditures.
However, the number of those in favour of increasing defence expenditures among Russian-speaking
respondents is equal to Estonians wishing for a decrease—8% and 7% respectively.
While in 2015, the proportion among Estonians supporting an increase in defence expenditures was still
at over 40%, it has now come down to 26% and the view that defence expenditures should be
maintained at the current level is dominating (Figure 29).
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 42
Figure 28. Views on the volume of defence expenditures; 2004–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
Figure 29. Views on the volume of defence expenditures; comparison of Estonian and non-Estonian population 2006–2018 (%; N = all respondents)
5 5 4 6 7 6 9 9 6 7 8 124 3 4 4 6 6 4 5 4 6 7 7 8 5 5 4 3 4 3 4
25 23 2126 27 27
3527 33 30 26
28
2215
22 23 1521
17 18 18 2025 22 25
20 20 2015
19 16 17
45 50 5345 46 44
3745 40 39 45
43
4752
51 4848 35 45 44 48 45
4747 38
44 43 4652 47
4850
11 10 9 10 9 12 8 9 10 13 119
9 109 10
1318 8 10
10 96 9
11 12 12 10 11 10 14 10
9 8 7 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 6 5
9 119 10
12 1116 15
12 1210 6 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10
5 4 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 39 9 5 5 7 9 10 9 7 7 5 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%02/2
004
06/2
004
10/2
004
03/2
005
06/2
005
11/2
005
06/2
006
09/2
006
12/2
006
06/2
007
01/2
008
08/2
008
01/2
009
05/2
009
01/2
010
09/2
010
08/2
011
10/2
011
03/2
012
10/2
012
03/2
013
10/2
013
03/2
014
11/2
014
03/2
015
10/2
015
03/2
016
10/2
016
03/2
017
10/2
017
03/2
018
10/2
018
Increase significantly Increase by a certain amount Maintain at the current level Don't know Decrease by a certain amount Decrease significantly
41
47 4742
49
32 24
3033
27
3529 28 29
33
4037
43
33 32 31 23 31
26 2623
18 15 1519 11
4
17 13
7
11
4 107 9
11 11 129 10
8
7
7 6
8
9 7 6 4 4
1012
9 9
11
9
15 1511 13
9 5 7 7 8
9
7
8 8
7
15
2319 20 20
35 36
2428
35
4552
4239
35
3137
44 45 4643 44 45
38
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
09/2
006
12/2
006
06/2
007
01/2
008
08/2
008
01/2
009
05/2
009
01/2
010
09/2
010
08/2
011
10/2
011
03/2
012
10/2
012
03/2
013
10/2
013
03/2
014
11/2
014
03/2
015
10/2
015
03/2
016
10/2
016
03/2
017
10/2
017
03/2
018
10/2
018
Estonians favouring an increase in expenditures Non-Estonians favouring an increase in expenditures
Estonians favouring defence cuts Non-Estonians favouring defence cuts
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 43
5.4 Assessment of state activities in view of the development of national defence
In the last three years assessment of state’s activities in view of development of national defence have
been predominantly positive—70% of the respondents did view it as very or rather good also in October
2018 (Figure 30).
Similarly to most of the other assessments on national defence or state institutions, the Estonian -
speaking population provides more positive assessments compared to non-Estonians: 77% of Estonians
and 54% of non-Estonian respondents regard the development of national defence as good or very
good. However, even the latter segment does not have many more respondents who give the
development of national defence a negative assessment compared to Estonians (only 8%), yet there
are more respondents choosing the answer “cannot say” (38%).
Figure 30. Assessment of state activities in the recent years in view of the development of
Estonia’s national defence; 2016–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
12
8
9
11
15
12
11
9
42
69
58
57
58
60
58
61
38
16
20
20
18
18
21
23
6
6
11
9
7
8
9
6
2
1
2
3
2
2
1
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2016/03
2016/10
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Very well Rather well Don't know Rather badly Very badly
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 44
5.5 Assessments on the defence of the Estonian border
In 2014, the kidnapping of the Estonian Internal Security Service officer Eston Kohver by the Russian
special services on the Estonian-Russian border resulted in the public discussion on how well the border
line between Estonia and Russia was guarded.
Whereas in autumn 2014, right after the incident at the border, the majority of the assessments given
to this question were negative, then already by spring 2016, the assessments were once again
predominantly positive (Figure 31). In October 2018, defence of the border was assessed positively
by 61% and negatively by 21% of respondents. The assessments have turned more positive compared
to spring.
The defence of the border is still viewed more critically by Estonians compared to respondents of other
nationalities. If 27% of Estonians view the defence of the border negatively, the same is held by only
10% of non-Estonians. Yet, the proportion of positive assessments is higher among respondents of
other nationalities compared to Estonians (Estonians 59% and other nationalities 67%).
The assessment differed most drastically in the fall of 2014, when only 27% of Estonians assessed the
defence of the border positively, 67% viewed it as bad or very bad. At that time, only 26% of
respondents of other nationalities viewed the defence of the eastern border as bad or very bad.
Figure 31. Assessment on the defence of the Estonian border; 2014–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
16
6
6
6
5
9
8
6
9
51
53
30
41
46
52
48
49
52
23
14
11
11
16
14
17
18
18
8
23
37
31
25
21
22
22
18
2
4
16
11
8
4
5
5
3
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2014/11
2015/10
2016/10
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Very well Rather well Don't know Rather badly Very badly
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 45
5.6 Assessment of the security of digital services and information systems of Estonia’s e-state
For the first time the survey includes the topic of the security of Estonia’s e -state. As we have seen
previously, cyber-attacks are viewed as the most acute factor threatening Estonia’s security. Perhaps
because such a threat is viewed as the most likely one, the assessment on the security of this field is
also the least positive: 55% of respondents think that the digital services and information systems of
our e-state are very or rather secure, while 22% view their security as bad (Figure 32).
Of course, this is an area which many respondents are unable to assess—almost 25% provide the
answer “cannot say”.
Figure 32. Assessments of the security of digital services and information systems of
Estonia’s e-state (%; N = all respondents)
If we compare the assessments to the three areas given under the same spectrum, the largest number
of respondents provide a positive assessment to the development of national defence in general,
followed by defence of the border, and the least positive assessments are given to the e -state (Figure
33).
Figure 33. Comparison of assessments on development of Estonia’s national defence, border
defence, and security of digital service and information systems (%; N = all respondents)
15
6
9
46
47
46
26
21
23
10
22
18
3
4
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other
Estonian
ALL
Very well Rather well Don't know Rather badly Very badly
9
9
9
46
52
61
23
18
23
18
18
6
4
3
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
security of digital services
Estonian border
development of national defence
Very well Rather well Don't know Rather badly Very badly
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 46
6 Organisation of Estonian national defence
The sixth chapter discusses various aspects of national defence organisation in Estonia: the attitudes
towards conscript service (including the necessity of it being compulsory to young men and voluntary
for young women, evasion of conscript service and inclusion of young people with minor health
disorders), whether it is more appropriate for Estonia to maintain its current defence concept or switch
to a fully professional army, opinions on comprehensive national defence and the main tasks of the
Defence League.
6.1 Attitude towards conscript service
6.1.1 Necessity of conscript service for young men
The Estonian population’s attitude towards conscript service for young men has been very favourable
throughout the survey period: in October 2018 as well, 92% of all respondents believed that
young men need to undergo conscript service. Only 7% of the population considers conscript
service rather or totally unnecessary. Undergoing conscript service is considered certainly necessary by
69% of the Estonians respondents and 48% of respondents of other nationalities (Figure 34).
The most dedicated supporters of conscript service are people over 60 years of age, 78% of whom
consider it certainly necessary. More than 60% of respondents 40 years of age and older are convinced
of the necessity of conscript service and more than half of respondents between 30 and 39 years of age
agree. Conscript service is considered certainly necessary by a little over 40% of the respondents below
30 years of age, who are affected most directly by conscript service, while 15% of them consider it
unnecessary.
Figure 34. Attitude towards the necessity of conscript service in October 2018
(%; N = all respondents)
78
66
62
56
43
40
48
69
62
18
28
34
35
39
43
38
26
30
1
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
2
4
4
8
11
13
8
4
6
1
1
4
2
4
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
60+
50-59 a
40-49 a
30-39 a
20-29 a
15-19 a
AGE
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY
ALL
Certainly necessary Rather necessary Don't know
Rather unnecessary Completely unnecessary
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 47
The proportion of the people who consider undergoing conscript service certainly necessary or rather
necessary for young men has remained at a very high level throughout the years—since 2008, it has
constantly been at 90% and higher (Figure 35).
Figure 35. Attitude towards the necessity of conscript service; 2005–2017 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
6.1.2. Attitudes towards undergoing conscript service with minor health disorders
Since 2012, the respondents have been additionally asked to assess whether young men with minor
health disorders should also undergo conscript service. 12% believe that such young men should
certainly undergo conscript service; however, 63% think that young men with minor health
disorders should undergo conscript service with an appropriate training load (Figure 36). The
public opinion has remained very stable in this matter over the past three surveys.
Among Estonians, support for extending conscript service duty to young men with minor health
disorders is widespread, respondents of other nationalities are more conservative in this regard—37%
of them think that young men with minor health disorders should not undergo conscript service at all.
71% of Estonians and 46% of respondents of other nationalities find that young men with minor health
disorders should undergo conscript service with an appropriate training load.
Figure 36. Attitudes towards undergoing conscript service regarding young men with minor
health disorders; 2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
87 88 88 86 8590 91 90 93 94 93 89 92 92 93 95 93 92 94 94 93 91 90 93 92 94 92
11 10 10 11 138 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 5 6 6 7 7 5 6 4 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
06/2
00
5
05/2
00
6
09/2
00
6
12/2
00
6
06/2
00
7
01/2
00
8
08/2
00
8
01/2
00
9
05/2
00
9
01/2
01
0
09/2
01
0
08/2
01
1
10/2
01
1
03/2
01
2
10/2
01
2
03/2
01
3
10/2
01
3
03/2
01
4
11/2
01
4
03/2
01
5
10/2
01
5
03/2
01
6
10/2
01
6
03/2
01
7
10/2
01
7
03/2
01
8
10/2
01
8
Certainly/rather necessary Completely/rather unnecessary
8
13
13
13
12
47
71
66
65
63
37
13
18
18
21
8
3
3
4
4
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Yes, certainly Yes, but with appropriate load No Don't know
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 48
6.1.3. Evasion of conscript service
Bearing in mind the favouring attitudes of the population towards conscript service, it is fully
anticipated that a great share of the population in Estonia disapproves of the evasion of
conscript service—20% condemn such behaviour and 44% consider it negative (Figure 37). 28% of
the respondents have an understanding attitude towards the evasion of conscript service, wh ile only
1% of the respondents approve of this.
The difference between Estonians and respondents of other nationalities is almost 20% in this matter:
a respective 70% and 51% see evasion negatively.
However, seniors tend to have a more negative attitude towards the evasion of conscript service. More
than 40% of respondents below 30 years of age have an understanding or approving attitude towards
the evasion of conscript service. However, a condemning attitude increases together with age and 76%
of people over 60 years of age view evasion of conscript service negatively.
Figure 37. Attitude towards the evasion of conscript service; 2016–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents))
27
24
19
16
11
18
16
22
23
25
23
20
49
49
45
42
37
28
35
48
42
43
44
44
5
5
7
8
8
9
11
5
7
6
6
7
18
22
28
34
41
42
36
24
27
25
26
28
1
1
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
60 + a
50-59 a
40-49 a
30-39 a
20-29 a
15-19 a
AGE (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY(10/2018)
2016/10
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
You condemn it You have a negative attitude
Don't know You understand it
You approve it
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 49
6.1.4. Conscript service for women
The opportunity for women to undergo conscript service voluntarily has been gaining
increasingly more understanding in the society—already since March 2015, more than a half of the
respondents have thought it certainly necessary or rather necessary.
As from fall 2016, the question about conscript service for women has been presented in the following
wording: “What do you think, what should women’s relationship with conscript service be
like?”
The respondents were offered a choice between three answers: conscript service should be compulsory
for women as well, women should have the opportunity to undergo conscript service voluntarily, or
women should not undergo conscript service at all, not even voluntarily (see Figure 38).
Figure 38. Attitude towards the necessity of conscript service for women;
2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
Support for voluntary conscript service for women is predominant—it is supported by 78% of the
respondents and this attitude is stable.
As much as 84% of Estonians support voluntary conscript service for women, while the respective
indicator for respondents of other nationalities is 66%. Of the latter, 29% believe that women should
not undergo conscript service at all, whether it is compulsory or not. However, there is 2–3% support
for compulsory conscript service for women among both Estonians and non-Estonians.
Compulsory conscript service for women is supported by 7% of respondents under 20 years of age.
There is still one third among respondents above 50 years of age who would like to keep women away
from conscript service.
It can be seen that conservative notions of gender roles have started to slowly disappear also among
older people and respondents of other nationalities.
1
2
4
2
3
7
2
3
4
3
2
75
77
78
86
79
71
66
84
79
78
78
20
20
16
9
13
17
29
11
15
17
16
4
1
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3
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5
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2
2
2
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
60+ a
50-59 a
40-49 a
30-39 a
20-29 a
15-19 a
AGE (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
conscript service should be compulsory for women
women should have the opportunity to undergo conscript service voluntarily
women should not undergo conscript service at all
Don't know
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 50
The respondents who considered voluntary or compulsory conscript service for women certainly or
rather necessary were asked about the form in which the conscript service should take place:
whether under the same conditions as applied to young men or through a separate
programme, which would take the different physical abilities of women into account.
The prevailing view is that conscript service for women should be conducted according to a separate
programme (Figure 39). This view is more prevalent among respondents of other nationalities (68%).
Such a solution has above average support also among older respondents (66%) and women (65%).
Figure 39. Which form should conscript service for women take? 2016–2018 comparison
(%; N = all respondents who considered conscript service for women necessary)
32
39
29
37
34
37
46
37
27
38
36
39
40
40
35
3
5
5
6
4
1
3
7
5
4
5
5
5
6
4
65
56
66
57
62
62
51
59
68
58
59
56
55
54
61
Female
Male
GENDER (10/2018)
60 + a
50-59 a
40-49 a
30-39 a
20-29 a
15-19 a
AGE (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2016/10
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
under the same conditions as applied to young mendon't knowaccording to a separate programme
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 51
6.2 Attitudes towards the professional defence forces
Despite the fact that more than 90% of respondents find undergoing conscript service necessary, the
topic of making the transition to a professional army is sometimes raised in political debates. This
became topical after Estonia joined NATO, when a professional defence force was also preferred at the
government level and when Latvia and Lithuania abandoned compulsory conscript service.
Respondents were asked to tell whether they think Estonia should waive compulsory conscription
service and maintain a professional army only, or maintain the current system in which the professional
army is combined with a reserve force consisting of persons who have undergone conscript service.
The results of the survey reveal that 80% of the population would prefer maintaining the
current system based on reserve forces (Figure 40). Switching to a fully professional army and
waiving compulsory conscript service is favoured by only 13% of Estonia’s population.
Figure 40. Options preferred for the development of Estonia’s defence concept; 2006–2018
comparison (%; N = all respondents)
* In surveys conducted in 2011, another wording of the question was used, with the reply options: “Estonia should maintain the general obligation for military service based on conscription” and “Estonia should switch to a professional army”.
Transitioning to professional defence forces is supported more by respondents of other nationalities,
but regardless of nationality, support for the current system is prevalent (Figure 41).
Figure 41. Options preferred for the development of Estonia’s defence concept –
comparison of Estonian and non-Estonian population, October 2018
63
77 7871
77 7583 81
7263
79 80 81 7883 84 82 82 79 81 84 84 82 79
32
19 19 2316 19
12 1422 25
17 14 15 17 13 11 13 11 14 13 11 11 11 13
0
20
40
60
80
100
05/2
00
6
09/2
00
6
12/2
00
6
06/2
00
7
01/2
00
8
08/2
00
8
01/2
01
0
09/2
01
0
08/2
01
1*
10/2
01
1*
03/2
01
2
10/2
01
2
03/2
01
3
10/2
01
3
03/2
01
4
11/2
01
4
03/2
01
5
10/2
01
5
03/2
01
6
10/2
01
6
03/2
01
7
03/2
01
7
03/2
01
8
10/2
01
8
Maintain the current system in which the professional army is combined with a reserve forceconsisting of persons having undergone consript service
Waive the obligation for military service based on conscription and maintain a professional armyonly
79
8 13
86
5 9
64
1422
0
20
40
60
80
100
Maintain the current system inwhich the professional army iscombined with a reserve force
consisting of persons havingundergone consript service
don't know Waive the obligation for militaryservice based on conscriptionand maintain a professional
army only
ALL Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 52
A professional defence force has an above average support also among respondents below 30 years of
age: 25% by people between 15 and 19 of age, and 23% by people between 20 and 29 of age.
6.3 Attitudes towards professional servicemen and members of
the Defence League
Whereas in previous surveys respondents were asked what is society’s general attitude towards
professional servicemen (this question was last asked in March 2018), this time we wanted to know the
attitude of the respondents themselves.
In March the question was: How do you feel, what is the attitude of Estonian people towards
professional servicemen? (Figure 42)
Figure 42. Attitudes towards professional servicemen; March 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
In this survey, the question was responder-based: What is your attitude towards professional
servicemen? (Figure 43)
Figure 43. Attitudes towards professional servicemen; October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
As the figure shows, the respondents slightly underrate the general attitude society has towards
servicemen: the respondents’ personal attitude is much more positive than the society’s assumed
general attitude.
Respondents’ attitude toward members of the Defence League is also mostly positive (Figure 44).
15
17
10
50
54
41
26
22
36
8
6
11
1
1
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL
Estonians
Other nationalities
Very good Rather good Neither good nor bad, neutral Don't know Rather bad
38
42
29
42
38
51
17
16
19
2
3
1
1
1
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ALL
Estonians
Other nationalities
Very well Rather well Neutral Don't know Rather badly
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 53
Figure 44. Attitude towards voluntary members of the Defence League – October 2018 (%; N = All respondents)
While the attitude among Estonian respondents toward voluntary members of the Defence League is
even more positive than toward professional servicemen (although both have overwhelming support),
respondents of other nationalities are a little more reserved toward voluntary members of the Defence
League compared to Estonians. Yet, more than half of them still have a positive attitude.
36
47
15
35
35
36
19
14
30
8
3
15
2
1
4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ALL
Estonians
Other nationalities
Very well Rather well Neutral Don't know Rather badly
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 54
6.4 Tasks of the Defence League
The respondents were asked to pick the three most important tasks of the Defence League from a
given list. The results were fixed in sequence, i.e., the most important reason first, followed by the
second and the third.
The Defence League’s most important tasks are considered to be maintaining permanent readiness
for military defence or conducting military training with its members — these tasks are listed
as first by respectively 28% and 24% of the respondents. One tenth of the respondents rank
participation in rescue operations or raising defence willingness among the population as first.
Permanent readiness for military defence (53%) ranks first in the overall summary of the three
tasks and participation in rescue operations in the event of emergencies and disasters ranks
second (47%).
The third most important task of the Defence League is considered to be conducting military
training for its members (39%) which is closely followed by raising defence willingness among
the population (36%).
More than one fourth of the respondents consider organising protection of civilians in emergency
situations (30%), organising recreational activities for young people (28%) or participating in
resolving domestic security crises (26%) among the three most important tasks.
Participation in military operations outside Estonia was the least popular choice pointed out among the
tasks of the Defence League (see Figure 45).
Figure 45. Main tasks of the Defence League, October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
The tasks of the Defence League have been ranked in that way throughout several surveys. The views
of Estonians and population of other nationalities still differ when it comes to understanding the
Defence League’s tasks.
1
5
4
4
5
9
24
10
28
4
4
12
10
7
16
8
18
19
4
6
10
14
18
11
7
19
6
9
15
26
28
30
36
39
47
53
Participation in military missions outside Estonia
Creation of broad support for the defence forces in
the civil society
Participation in national crisis management
Organisation of the military education of the youth
Organised preparation for protecting the civilian
population in emergency situations
Raising the defence willingness among the
population
Conducting military training among members of
organization
Participation in rescue operations in the event of
emergencies and disasters
Permanent readiness for the military defense
First Second Third TOTAL
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 55
While Estonians mainly consider the Defence League a national defence organisation, the main task of
which is maintaining constant readiness for the military defence of the state (58% place it among the
three most important tasks), conducting military training (44%), participating in rescue operations in
emergencies and disasters (44%) and raising defence willingness among the population (41%), the
Russian-speaking population see the Defence League primarily as a civil defence organisation, deeming
participation in rescue operations in the event of emergencies and disasters (54% of respondents of
other nationalities place it among the three most important tasks) and organised protection of civilians
in emergency situations (40%) its most important tasks (Figure 46).
Figure 46. The three main tasks of the Defence League, comparison of Estonian and non-Estonian population; October 2018, (%; N = all respondents)
13
18
25
25
40
26
27
54
39
9
14
26
29
27
40
44
44
58
9
15
26
28
30
36
39
47
53
Participation in military missions outside Estonia
Creation of broad support for the defence forces in
the civil society
Participation in national crisis management
Organisation of the military education of the youth
Organised preparation for protecting the civilian
population in emergency situations
Raising the defence willingness among the
population
Conducting military training among members of
organization
Participation in rescue operations in the event of
emergencies and disasters
Permanent readiness for the military defense
ALL Estonians Others
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 56
6.5 Exposure to national defence structures and opinions on joining the Defence League
Every survey also establishes the exposure respondents and the persons they are close to have to
national defence structures (Figure 47).
Figure 47. Exposure to national defence structures, October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
Respondents have been most frequently exposed to conscript service (11%) and national defence
training (6%). More than half of the respondents’ acquaintances or friends have undergone conscript
service, while 22% of the respondents’ close ones have had contact with the Defence League.
However, 3/4 of the respondents have not had any contact with national defence and 1/3 do not have
such contact even at the level of people close to them.
4% of the respondents (5% of Estonians; 6% men) participate in the activities of the Defence League
themselves, 29% of Estonians and 26% of men have contact to the Defence League through a family
member or friend.
The number of respondents of other nationalities connected to the Defence League is marginal—only
8% have a friend or a family member who is connected to the Defence League and only 2% participate
in the activities of the Defence League themselves.
11
4
2
4
1
4
6
75
51
16
11
22
6
10
10
32
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
participated in conscript service
Training excercises / Rehearsals /
Volunteer Reserve Officers Courses
Regular service in Estonian Defence
Forces
participated in the activities of the
Defence League
participated in Naiskodukaitse (Women’s Voluntary Defence …
participated in Noored Kotkad (Young
Eagles) / Kodutütred (Home Daughters)
National Defence Course at school
do not have any connections to national
defence structures
Respondent Family members or friends
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 57
The respondents who were not members of the Defence League or related organisations were asked
their opinion on joining the Defence League.
4% of the respondents would certainly join and 16% would probably join if they received a
proposal to join the Defence League (Figure 48). Readiness to join has slightly decreased.
4% of Estonian respondents would certainly be ready to join and 19% would probably be ready to join,
the respective indicators for non-Estonian respondents are 4% and 10%.
The Defence League is viewed primarily as an organisation for men, thus, readiness to join is also
higher among men (28%). Higher readiness to join is expressed by younger respondents: more than
half (52%) of those below the age of 20 and ¼ on average by those between 20 and 49 years of age
express this view.
Figure 48. Willingness to join the Defence league; 2017–2018 comparison (%; N = those who are not yet members of the Defence League)
1
3
6
6
4
14
2
7
4
4
6
4
4
8
11
21
20
19
38
12
21
10
19
17
18
16
10
17
16
21
28
25
17
18
21
17
11
16
18
14
31
27
33
27
20
24
26
17
28
26
27
25
67
38
30
20
22
3
45
28
48
32
40
35
37
60+
50-59
40-49
30-39
20-29
15-19
AGE (10/2018)
Female
Male
GENDER
(10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY
(10/2018)
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
will certainly join will probably join don't know probably will not join certainly will not join
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 58
7 NATO
The seventh, NATO-related chapter provides an overview of the population’s attitude towards Estonia’s
membership in NATO, their views on the role of NATO in providing security to Estonia and the ways in
which the steps NATO has taken to ensure Estonian security in the world’s new security situation are
assessed. The respondents were also asked to assess allied troops stationed in Estonia by way of pre -
provided adjectives.
7.1 Attitude towards membership in NATO
In October 2018, Estonian membership in NATO was favoured by 76% of the population,
which is 5% more than in March. 42% are certainly in favour of and 34% rather in favour the NATO
membership. 16% of Estonian residents are against NATO membership while 9% of the population
have no opinion in this matter (Figure 49)
While 90% and more of Estonian respondents have been in favour of NATO membership for a long
time, support for NATO among respondents of other nationalities is considerably lower and more
volatile, depending significantly on political events in the world and the media coverage thereof.
Between March 2015 and March 2018, the share of non-Estonian respondents supporting NATO
membership was slightly above 30%—as it was after the Bronze Night events in 2007 and the Arab
Spring in 2011.
In October 2018, the proportion of supporters of NATO membership of other nationalities had increased
to 44%; 38% are against NATO membership. Almost 1/5 (18%) have no opinion in this matter (Figure
50).
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 59
Figure 49. Attitudes towards joining NATO / membership in NATO, comparison of 2000–2018; (%; N = all respondents)
Figure 50. Proportion of the proponents of joining NATO / membership in NATO; comparison of Estonians and Non-Estonians 2000–2018 (% of those certainly and rather in favour of the aforementioned; N = all respondents)
4554 54
6369 66 69
74 72 74 7873 74 76 75 71 73 75 73 71
80 78 7671 75 72
79 76 79 75 72 72 71 71 72 74 7176
28 2632 28
23 2621
16 18 18 14 18 19 17 17 17 15 17 18 2013 13 14
19 20 1915 17 17 18 21 19 19 20 19 19 19 16
0
20
40
60
80
100
10
/200
0
10
/200
1
10
/200
2
02
/200
3
06
/200
3
10
/200
3
02
/200
4
06
/200
4
10
/200
4
03
/200
5
06
/200
5
11
/200
5
05
/200
6
09
/200
6
12
/200
6
06
/200
7
01
/200
8
08
/200
8
01
/200
9
05
/200
9
01
/201
0
09
/201
0
08
/201
1
10
/201
1
03
/201
2
10
/201
2
03
/201
3
10
/201
3
03
/201
4
11
/201
4
03
/201
5
10
/201
5
03
/201
6
10
/201
6
03
/201
7
10
/201
7
03
/201
8
10
/201
8
Certainly/rather in favour Certainly/rather against it
4554 54
6369 66 69
74 72 7478
73 74 76 7571 73 75 73 71
80 78 7671
75 7279 76 79 75 72 72 71 71 72 74 71
7656
66 6573 76
81 8387 86 88 89
84 87 86 88 89 90 89 90 8993
8983
8793
86 89 8894 93 91 91 89 89 91 92 89 91
2431 33
39
52
3338
44 4642
51 4843
5144
33 37 39 3531
50 4844
34 3440
5247 44
3731 31 33 31 31 33 32
44
0
20
40
60
80
100
10
/200
0
10
/200
1
10
/200
2
02
/200
3
06
/200
3
10
/200
3
02
/200
4
06
/200
4
10
/200
4
03
/200
5
06
/200
5
11
/200
5
06
/200
6
09
/200
6
12
/200
6
06
/200
7
01
/200
8
08
/200
8
01
/200
9
05
/200
9
01
/201
0
09
/201
0
08
/201
1
10
/201
1
03
/201
2
10
/201
2
03
/201
3
10
/201
3
03
/201
4
11
/201
4
03
/201
5
10
/201
5
03
/201
6
10
/201
6
03
/201
7
10
/201
7
03
/201
8
10
/201
8
ALL Estonians Others
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 60
Through observing the attitudes among different groups of the population of other nationalities with
regard to NATO membership, it can be concluded that the better a person is integrated and the more
proficient they are in Estonian, the more positive is their attitude towards NATO membership (Figure
51).
Non-Estonians over the age of 50 not proficient or only a little proficient in Estonian who do not have
Estonian citizenship expressed the most aversion towards NATO membership.
However, almost half of non-Estonians with proficiency in Estonian under 20 years of age support
Estonia’s NATO membership.
Figure 51. Attitudes towards membership in NATO among non-Estonians October 2018 (N = non-Estonians)
24
29
50
59
24
20
57
48
40
60
40
38
44
45
54
75
55
48
38
23
49
60
28
37
43
19
46
48
39
32
18
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
no knowledge at all
understands but don't speak
understands and speaks a little
good knowledge
ESTONIAN LANGUAGE SKILLS
undefined
Russian
Estonian
CITIZENSHIP
higher
secondary (vocational)
primary or basic
EDUCATION
60 +
50-59
40-49
30-39
20-29
15-19
AGE
Certainly/rather in favour Certainly/rather against it
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 61
7.2 NATO’s assistance in the event of a potential threat
The majority of the population considers NATO Estonia’s main security guarantee (see Chapter 3.6).
Over the years, people have become increasingly more certain that NATO will provide military aid in the
event of Estonia facing a military threat. An increase in the actual presence of allied forces in Estonia
has contributed to this sense of security.
In the earlier surveys, respondents were asked to select only one of the four options, but starting from
spring 2017 they were given the opportunity to pick several, since different answers were not mutually
exclusive.
In November 2016, the respondents had to pick only one option and the results were as follows: 44%
of the respondents found that NATO would provide direct military assistance in the event of
an impending threat to Estonia, 21% believed that membership in NATO would be able to prevent a
military conflict completely. 14% thought that NATO would limit its aid only to political and diplomatic
support and 11% believed that there is no hope for help from NATO.
In the case of several answers more than half of respondents found that NATO would provide direct
military assistance in the event of a conflict while 40% thought that membership in NATO would be
able to prevent a military attack against Estonia completely. 18% of the respondents found that NATO
members would limit their help to political and diplomatic support while 9% thought that there is no
hope for help from NATO. Thus, the population’s belief in NATO’s assistance or preventive power has
slightly increased compared to spring (Figure 52).
Figure 52. Role of NATO in ensuring Estonia’s security if Estonia is exposed to military threat
2017/2018; (%; N = all respondents)
The Estonian-speaking respondents’ trust in NATO’s support is considerably higher than that of
respondents of other nationalities, which originates from the attitude towards the membership in the
alliance. These two first answers were provided by respectively 63% and 52% of Estonians, which is at
the same level compared to March (Figure 53).
Only 32% (26% in March) of non-Estonian respondents believe in NATO’s military assistance. 22%
(26% in March) of respondents find that NATO will not help Estonia or that NATO would limit its aid to
political and diplomatic support. The share of those non-Estonians who do not expect any aid from
NATO has decreased steadily.
53
42
18
9
10
51
40
19
11
11
49
39
17
13
8
50
39
20
12
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
provide direct military assistance
would prevent a military conflict
limit to political and diplomatic support
no hope of help from NATO
don't know
10/2018 03/2018 10/2017 03/2017
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 62
Figure 53. Role of NATO in ensuring Estonia’s security if Estonia is exposed to military threat, October 2018, comparison of Estonians and non-Estonians (%; N = all respondents)
7.3 Assessments to the actions of NATO
Since November 2014 we have studied the attitude of the Estonian population towards actions already
taken by NATO to ensure better security for Estonia.
The respondents were asked whether NATO has taken sufficient measures to ensure the security of
Estonia in today’s security situation (Figure 54) and how the presence of NATO allied forces in Estonia
is perceived (Figure 55).
Figure 54. Has NATO taken sufficient measures to ensure the security of Estonia?
2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
The assessments given to steps taken by NATO for ensuring security in Estonia have been
predominantly positive throughout all the surveys, staying near 70%. Almost 80% of Estonians
consider NATO’s measures as sufficient. More than one third of the respondents of other nationalities
give the answer “cannot say”, and 47% consider NATO’s actions as sufficient.
63
52
15
3
7
32
21
26
22
16
0 20 40 60 80
provide direct military assistance
would prevent a military conflict
limit to political and diplomatic support
no hope of help from NATO
don't know
Estonians Other nationalities
14
22
19
22
21
19
33
56
48
48
50
49
35
16
21
19
20
22
10
5
8
6
6
7
8
1
4
5
3
3
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY
(10/2018)
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
completely sufficient sufficient in general don't know rather not sufficient completely not sufficient
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 63
However, Russian-speaking respondents are predominantly negative about the presence of
NATO allied forces in Estonia (46%), whereas almost 90% of Estonians are in favour of it
(Figure 55). This is directly related to the attitudes toward NATO membership in general. However, it
must be noted that the share of non-Estonians with a negative attitude has decreased by 8% (54% in
March), and support has increased by 6% (from 31% to 37%).
Figure 55. What is your attitude towards the presence of NATO allied forces in Estonia?
2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
7.4 Assessments on the effect of the NATO battle group
stationed in Estonia
In October 2017 another question was added: Do you think having NATO battle group troops
stationed in Estonia generally makes the country more secure or less secure or does it have
no real effect either way. While 77% of Estonians find that the NATO battle group has made Estonia
more secure, only 29% of non-Estonians agree with that; the majority do not see that it has an effect
on Estonia’s security (40%) (Figure 56).
Figure 56. What effect does the stationing of NATO battle group troops have on Estonia’s
security? 2017-2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents))
7
48
35
37
36
35
30
41
34
33
33
37
17
5
8
7
9
9
25
4
13
12
14
11
21
2
10
11
8
8
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2017/03
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
fully support rather support don't know rather do not support do not support at all
29
77
60
58
61
40
12
21
23
21
15
5
11
10
8
16
6
8
9
10
0 20 40 60 80 100
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY (10/2018)
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
more secure does not have an effect either way less secure don't know
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 64
7.5 Assessment of NATO battlegroup troops
In the second question added in October 2017, we asked the respondents to select four words among
the pre-selected adjectives that would characterise the troops of the NATO battle group stationed in
Estonia the best in the respondents’ assessment (Figure 57).
Figure 57. Which, if any, of the following words or phrases would you choose in general to
describe NATO battlegroup troops currently stationed in Estonia: October 2017/2018
(%; N = all respondents)
Mostly positive words are used to describe the NATO battle group troops, out of which “professional” is
repeated most frequently.
This is followed by such characterisations as “friendly”, “well intentioned”, “polite”, “capable”,
“committed” and “well informed about Estonia”. Compared to last fall, the words “frie ndly”, “polite”,
and “committed” are used slightly more, “professional”, “capable”, and “well informed about Estonia”
less—but those changes of a coupe percentage points remain within the limits of a statistic error.
Only 7% deem the troops of the allied forces as ignorant about Estonia, and 4% deem they are not to
be trusted.
Negative characterisations are more common among respondents of other nationalities (See Figure
58).
46
28
21
19
16
14
13
9
7
7
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
3
25
44
30
22
21
13
17
10
7
9
7
4
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
31
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Professional
Friendly
Well intentioned
Polite
Capable
Commited
Well informed about Estonia
Ignorant about Estonia
Outgoing
Hidden away
Not to be trusted
Disrespectful
Uncommited
Happy
Hostile
Unprofessional
Resentful
Incapable
None of these
Don't know
10/2017 10/2018
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 65
Figure 58. Which, if any, of the following words or phrases would you choose in general to
describe NATO battlegroup troops currently stationed in Estonia;
October 2018 , comparison of Estonians and non-Estonians (%; N = all respondents)
26
1
1
2
2
7
12
12
18
17
27
27
37
51
41
5
12
7
16
8
4
6
13
4
9
11
13
28
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Don't know
None of these
Not to be trusted
Disrespectful
Ignorant about Estonia
Hidden away
Outgoing
Well informed about Estonia
Commited
Capable
Polite
Well intentioned
Friendly
Professional
Other nationalities Estonians
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 66
8 International military operations
The eighth chapter maps the attitudes towards participation in international military operations: how
necessary Estonia’s participation is in such operations according to the population, what the reasons for
Estonia to participate are, and what the respondents’ attitudes towards the Estonian Defence Forces’
operations as part of NATO, European Union, and UN units are. We also observe attitude toward a more
tight defence co-operation between EU Member States.
8.1 Attitude towards participation in international operations
Positive attitudes toward Estonia’s participation in international military operations is always prevalent
and is in the last survey at the highest level ever. 68% of the population of Estonia believe that
the Estonian Defence Forces’ units should, within their capabilities, participate in
international military operations; 24% of respondents feel that it should be certainly done (Figure
59). 22% of the respondents think that the Defence Forces should probably or certainly not participate
in these operations.
The difference between attitudes of Estonians and respondents of other nationalities towards
international military operations is decreasing. 73% of Estonians are in favour of participating in
international operations, 57% of non-Estonians feel the same way, which is 10% more compared to
March.
Figure 59. Should Estonian units participate in international military operations?
2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
11
15
32
27
24
25
23
36
42
44
46
43
41
45
15
11
7
9
7
10
10
15
12
12
11
13
13
11
23
20
6
7
13
11
11
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other (03/2018)
Other (10/2018)
Estonian (03/2018)
Estonian (10/2018)
NATIONALITY
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
yes, certainly probably yes don't know probably not certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 67
8.2 Arguments for participation in international operations
Respondents were asked to select the three most important reasons why Estonia should participate in
international military operations from a given list. The results were fixed in sequence, i.e., the most
important reason first, followed by the second and third.
The two most important reason named most frequently were that participation in operations
provides our soldiers real combat experience (32%) and it ensures NATO’s assistance in the
event of a potential threat to Estonia (28%). These motives were also first and second
respectively as an aggregate sum of the three reasons (Figure 60).
The next most important arguments for participating in international operations highlighted by the
respondents include contributing to world peace (sum of the three reasons 34%) and protecting people
in crisis areas (34%). Estonia taking the opportunity to have a say in world politics is deemed almost as
important (33%).
Spreading democratic values in the world is seen as the least important (8%).
Figure 60. The most important reasons why Estonia should participate in international
military operations; October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
Attitudes towards participating in international military operations differ slightly among Estonians and
respondents of other nationalities (Figure 61).
The Defence Forces gaining combat experience is the most important for both Estonian and non-
Estonian respondents (70% and 55% respectively) in the aggregate of the three choices, although the
latter mention it less frequently. Here, the difference between Estonians and non-Estonians has
decreased just like in attitudes towards participating in missions in general.
For Estonians, the second place goes to ensuring NATO’s assistance (59%), which is a concept that the
respondents of other nationalities are rather sceptical about. Thus, the importance of that answer
among non-Estonians is at only 27%.
1
3
4
3
4
7
28
32
2
5
9
12
14
16
11
25
5
11
11
18
16
11
10
9
5
13
8
19
24
33
34
34
49
66
Do not know
Nothing can justify participation
Helps to spread democratic values in the world
Participation in foreign missions is the
responsibility of every democratic country
Helps to prevent the spread of conflicts into
Estonia
Gives Estonia an opportunity to have say in world
politics
Protects people in crisis regions
Contributes to ensuring peace in the world
Ensures NATO's assistance in the event of
potential threats to Estonia
Gives our soldiers necessary real combat
experience
First Second Third TOTAL
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 68
For non-Estonians, the main second choice is Estonia taking the opportunity to have a say in world
politics (43%), third is protecting people in crisis areas (32%). More than Estonians, respondents of
other nationalities think that participation in international operations is the duty of every democratic
state (29%).
Compared to Estonians, there are more those among non-Estonians who believe that nothing justifies
the participation of Estonian servicemen in international operations.
Figure 61. The most important reasons why Estonia should participate in international military operations; October 2018, comparison of Estonians and non-Estonians
(%; N = all respondents)
13
8
19
24
33
34
34
49
66
23
6
29
29
43
28
32
27
55
8
8
15
23
30
37
35
59
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Nothing can justify participation
Helps to spread democratic values in the world
Participation in foreign missions is theresponsibility of every democratic country
Helps to prevent the spread of conflicts intoEstonia
Gives Estonia an opportunity to have say inworld politics
Contributes to ensuring peace in the world
Protects people in crisis regions
Ensures NATO's assistance in the event ofpotential threats to Estonia
Gives our soldiers necessary real combatexperience
Estonians Others ALL
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 69
8.3 Attitudes towards participation in NATO, EU and UN operations
Since Estonian servicemen have participated in military operations as part of NATO, EU and UN units,
we were curious about whether there is a difference in the public’s attitudes towards operations
conducted under the aegis of different organisations. The October survey also included “as part of co-
operation with allied countries”.
There are no great differences compared to the survey conducted in October 2015 when this question
was first included in the survey—participation in different missions is supported more or less equally: in
October 2018, participation as part of NATO units was supported by 71%, as part of European Union
units by 68%, and as part of UN peacekeeping forces by 71% of the respondents (Figure 62).
While the majority of Estonians support participation in all missions, especially those of NATO (82%),
support for various operations is lower among respondents of other nationalities, especially low for
participation in NATO operations (47%). However, other missions are supported by more than a half of
people of other nationalities.
Figure 62. Attitudes towards the units of the Estonian Defence Forces participating in
international operations; October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
11
24
19
15
24
21
12
28
23
10
33
26
45
51
49
43
48
47
45
50
48
37
49
45
16
12
14
18
15
15
18
14
15
15
7
9
13
9
10
10
9
9
11
5
7
18
6
10
15
4
8
14
4
8
14
3
7
20
5
10
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other nationalities
Estonians
ALL
EU operations
Other nationalities
Estonians
ALL
UN operations
Other nationalities
Estonians
ALL
Allied countries operations
Other nationalities
Estonians
ALL
NATO operations
certainly in favour rather in favour don't know rather against certainly against
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 70
8.4 Opinion on the defence co-operation of the European Union
In previous surveys we were curious how public opinion would react to the proposal of establishing a
common border service and joint armed forces for the European Union.
This survey presented the following question: Should the European Union increase defence co-
operation among its Member States?
The abstractly formulated defence co-operation found more public support than the unambiguously
worded proposals for establishment of a common border service and armed forces—although even they
found general support in the view of the public. In March, support for establishing a common EU border
service was at 55% and for joint EU armed force at 45% (Figure 63).
Figure 63. Attitudes towards a common border service and joint armed forces for the European Union; October 2017/ March 2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
However, increase of defence co-operation between EU Member States is supported by ¾ of the
respondents: by 81% of Estonians and 63% of respondents of other nationalities (Figure 64).
Figure 64. Attitude toward an increase of defence co-operation between EU Member States,
October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
19
23
11
15
36
37
34
35
21
17
24
19
16
16
18
20
8
7
13
11
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ühine piirivalveteenistus
2018/03
2017/10
Ühised relvajõud
2018/03
2017/10
fully support rather support don't know rather do not support do not support at all
20
37
31
43
44
44
23
12
15
8
5
6
6
2
3
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other nationalities
Estonians
ALL
yes, certainly probably yes don't know probably not certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 71
9 Veteran policy
9.1 Primary associations with the word “veteran”
Since November 2011, the survey has included a question on whether people associate the word
“veteran” primarily with World War II, the Estonian War of Independence, or the Estonian Defence
Forces’ foreign operations. The results of the previous surveys up to March 2016 showed that more
than half of the population (55%) associates the word “veteran” primarily with World War II.
17% of all respondents associated that term with foreign operations of the Estonian Defence Forces
(23% of Estonian and 5% of Russian-speaking respondents). At the same time, many respondents
chose the option “other” and specified that they use the term “veteran” to denote participants of all
wars.
As a result, the respective option was added to ones presented to the respondents and it became the
most popular answer right away. In a survey conducted in fall 2017, it was supported by 45% of the
respondents (Figure 65).
Figure 65. What are the primary associations with the word “veteran”, October 2017
(%; N = all respondents)
However, in the context of veteran policy the most important aspect is to know, first and foremost, how
much will people associate the term “veteran” with foreign operations of the Estonian Defence Forces,
we returned to the former wording of the question in March and excluded the answer about participants
in all wars (Figure 66).
Figure 66. What are the primary associations with the word “veteran”? March 2018
(%; N = all respondents)
45
33
8
6
2
6
0 20 40 60
everyone who has fought for Estonia in
different wars
World War II
Estonian Defence Forces' missions
Estonian War of Independence
other
don't know
42
24
19
5
10
26
31
26
6
11
74
9
5
5
7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
World War II
Estonian Defence Forces' missions
Estonian War of Independence
other
don't know
ALL Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 72
Of course, it is important to honour those who participated in the Estonian War of Independence, alas,
those who participated in it are no longer alive. Thus, under practical considerations, we left out
participants in the Estonian War of Independence from the options and replaced it with the option
“people with long time service record in the Estonian Defence Forces”. The result is the following
distribution of answers (Figure 67).
Figure 67. What are the primary associations with the word “veteran”?
October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
As can be seen, the distribution of answers does not change by much: World War II is still the clear
leader with 48%. Still, the proportion of respondents who associate the term “veteran” with people who
have participated in missions of the Estonian Defence Forces is slowly increasing. It has increased from
24% to 27% among all respondents, and from 31% to 34% among Estonians. The latter indicator is
only 4% lower than the percentage of Estonians who associate veterans with World War II.
48
27
14
3
9
38
34
17
2
8
67
11
6
6
10
0 20 40 60 80
World War II
Estonian Defence Forces' missions
people with long time service record in theEstonian Defence Forces
other
don't know
ALL Estonians Other nationalities
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 73
10 National defence instruction in schools
The attitude towards the necessity of national defence instruction in schools has been almost as
positive among the Estonian population as towards compulsory conscript service for young men: about
4/5 or more of the respondents since 2008 have found it certainly necessary or probably necessary.
In autumn 2014, we made changes to the wording of the question: “Should it be possible to get
national defence instruction in all educational institutions providing secondary education?”
84% of the respondents consider the opportunity to receive national defence instruction
certainly or probably necessary (Figure 68). Estonian and Russian-speaking respondents’ support to
national defence instruction differs by more than 10%, yet clearly dominates the answers of both
respondent groups (89% for Estonians and 76% for non-Estonians). Unfortunately, it must be
acknowledged that compared to Estonian language schools , Russian language schools have less
opportunities to study national defence instruction, which also results in lesser awareness of the
content of this subject among non-Estonians. Yet, only 14% of respondents of other nationalities are
opposed to national defence instruction (7% of Estonians).
Support for national defence instruction is also prevalent among different age groups.
Figure 68. Attitude towards the necessity of national defence instruction in all educational
institutions providing secondary education; 2017–2018 comparison (%; N = all respondents)
46
45
47
37
43
39
33
48
45
45
43
39
44
40
41
41
44
43
41
39
38
41
6
4
5
8
9
5
10
4
7
7
7
5
4
5
11
6
6
8
5
6
7
6
4
3
3
3
1
6
6
2
3
3
3
60 +
50 - 59
40 - 49
30 - 39
20 - 29
15 - 19
AGE (10/2018)
Other
Estonian
NATIONALITY(10/2018)
2017/10
2018/03
2018/10
Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 74
11 Media consumption
The questionnaire included a large section on media consumption with the main purpose of observing
how the population’s attitude on national defence are influenced by their contact with different media
channels. This task requires secondary data analysis, which is not the objective of the current report.
The following presents the survey results describing the respondents’ engagement with different
television channels and radio stations as well as visits to Internet portals in the form of frequency
distributions.
Figure 69. Visits to news portals and online newspapers; October 2018
(%; N = all respondents)
The most popular news portals were Delfi and postimees.ee, whereat Delfi also has the largest Russian-
speaking audience. The web portal of the Estonian Public Broadcasting is used much more by Estonians
than non-Estonians.
26
30
20
16
19
8
23
27
13
8
11
3
9
9
9
5
2
12
7
6
8
16
15
17
11
13
6
12
13
10
9
11
5
12
13
8
5
1
12
5
4
6
16
15
17
15
16
11
17
16
19
12
14
8
17
17
16
10
6
18
14
16
11
42
40
46
58
52
75
48
44
58
71
64
84
62
61
67
80
91
58
74
74
75
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
delfi.ee; rus.delfi
ALL
Estonians
Other
uudised.err.ee; novosti.err.ee
ALL
Estonians
Other
postimees.ee; rus.postimees
ALL
Estonians
Other
Õhtuleht (õhtuleht.ee; vecherka.ee)
ALL
Estonians
Other
other Estonian Internet portals
ALL
Estonians
Other
Russian Internet portals
ALL
Estonians
Other
Internet portals of other countries
ALL
Estonians
Other
5-7 days per week 3-4 days 2 days or less not at all
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 75
Figure 70 Use of social media, October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
As examples of other direct communication applications, respondents were presented with applications such as Skype, Messenger, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Telegram etc.)
41
45
32
28
24
36
16
16
14
3
3
4
4
1
12
5
1
14
4
2
8
28
26
30
8
8
10
14
13
16
4
4
5
2
1
4
3
1
7
2
0
6
6
6
5
11
10
13
8
7
10
17
19
11
6
6
5
4
5
4
4
1
12
3
1
10
14
14
12
11
10
15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
ALL
Estonians
Other
Youtube
ALL
Estonians
Other
ALL
Estonians
Other
ALL
Estonians
Other
Odnoklasniki
ALL
Estonians
Other
Vkontakte
ALL
Estonians
Other
Different blogs
ALL
Estonians
Other
Other applications…
ALL
Estonians
Other
5-7 days per week 3-4 days 2 days or less
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 76
Figure 71. Engagement with television channels; October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
46
63
11
12
7
21
35
48
7
34
46
7
11
13
7
6
3
13
18
3
50
19
3
52
12
8
18
15
16
12
11
7
19
17
21
8
18
23
9
11
13
7
7
5
13
6
3
13
8
4
17
17
16
19
14
12
17
21
22
20
17
18
14
18
18
17
24
26
18
12
8
19
11
10
13
12
13
11
21
21
20
25
9
60
56
64
40
31
13
71
30
13
67
54
48
68
75
84
55
65
84
24
61
80
20
50
55
43
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ETV broadcast in Estonian
ALL
Estonians
Other
ETV broadcast in Russian
ALL
Estonians
Other
Kanal 2
ALL
Estonians
Other
TV3
ALL
Estonians
Other
TV Tallinn
ALL
Estonians
Other
3+
ALL
Estonians
Other
Pervõi Baltiiski Kanal
ALL
Estonians
Other
Russian TV-channels
ALL
Estonians
Other
TV of other countries
KÕIK
eestikeelsed
venekeelsed
5-7 päeval 3-4 päeval 2 päeval või harvemini üldse mitte
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 77
The following figure shows the attitudes of Russian-speaking respondents towards Estonia’s
membership in NATO depending on exposure to different TV channels (Figure 72).
We see that those Russian-speaking respondents who watch Estonian language programs on Eesti
Televisioon at least once a week perceive Estonia’s NATO membership more favorably than those who
view Russian TV channels or the programs on Pervyi Baltiiski Kanal. Viewing or non-viewing of Estonian
Russian language channel ETV+ does not influence attitudes toward NATO.
Of course, the figure below only indicates the general distribution of factors measuring the
viewing/non-viewing of TV channels, a more precise effect of media consumption would require a
typological analysis.
Figure 72. Attitudes towards Estonia’s membership in NATO depending on exposure to TV-
channels; October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
62
52
33
54
59
31
46
41
47
34
52
77
19
30
51
28
21
52
33
42
46
44
35
17
0 20 40 60 80 100
do not watch
watch less often
watch every day
Russian TV
do not watch
watch less often
watch every day
PBK
do not watch
watch less often
watch every day
ETV+
do not watch
watch less often
watch every day
ETV, ETV2
Certainly/rather in favour Certainly/rather against it
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 78
Figure 73. Engagement with radio stations; October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
39
54
10
11
1
31
3
1
6
13
16
7
8
1
21
4
3
7
12
13
11
7
4
14
5
4
6
36
17
72
74
94
34
88
92
81
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Radio broadcast in Estonian
ALL
Estonians
Other
Estonian radio broadcast in Russian
ALL
Estonians
Other
Radio broadcast of other countries
ALL
Estonians
Other
5-7 päeval 3-4 päeval 2 päeval või harvemini üldse mitte
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 79
Figure 74. Reading newspapers—on the basis of six most recent issues; October 2018
(%; N = Estonian-speaking respondents)
Figure 75. Reading newspapers—on the basis of six most recent issues; October 2018
(%; N = Russian-speaking respondents)
3
4
5
5
8
11
12
11
4
3
6
9
6
8
9
11
0 5 10 15 20 25
Äripäev
Pealinn
Eesti Päevaleht
Linnaleht
Eesti Ekspress
Õhtuleht
Postimees
Maaleht
4-6 issues 1-3 issues
1
1
1
1
2
3
13
15
21
1
2
2
3
3
4
15
16
15
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Maaleht
Äripäev
Eesti Ekspress
Eesti Päevaleht
Õhtuleht
Postimees
МК Эстония
Linnaleht
Stolitsa
4-6 issues 1-3 issues
Public Opinion and National Defence / Autumn 2018 Ministry of Defence
Turu-uuringute AS 80
12 Importance of information channels
To assess the impact of different print and web channels, TV and radio stations, and social media
channels to people’s attitudes, an add itional typological analysis would be required. In this survey, we
asked the respondents themselves to assess which information channels are important to them in
obtaining information related to national defence.
The most important ones are, predictably, television and radio, more than half of the respondents
deem news portals and newspapers as very or rather important. However, direct communication with
other people fits right between these two, being below TV, but almost as important as information
obtained via radio.
Print ads, street advertisements, and electronic news letters are deemed the least important.
Figure 76. How important is this channel in regard to information on national defence,
October 2018 (%; N = all respondents)
7
6
8
9
16
16
28
29
34
45
18
21
24
30
33
40
35
39
37
37
14
14
19
17
15
9
12
8
7
5
29
31
23
20
14
20
12
13
11
7
32
28
26
24
22
15
13
11
11
6
0 20 40 60 80 100
Print ads
Street advertisements
Electronic newsletters
Web-pages
Social media
Newspapers
News portals
Direct communication with other people
Radio
Televison
very important rather important don't know rather not important not important at all