Public Opinion

Public Opinion

EXPRESSIONS (not attitudes) of individuals regarding their political leaders and institutions as well as political and social issues.

Attitudes cannot be measured

American Public Opinion is…Uninformed:

Supreme Court is the most approved government body, at ~74% approval

~50% of Americans know what the Supreme Court’s main function is

American Public Opinion is…UninformedInconsistent

Illogical across issues

American Public Opinion is…UninformedInconsistentUnconnected

Most who oppose abortion support the death penalty

SurveySystematic interviews by trained, professional interviewers, who ask a standardized set of questions of a rather small number of randomly chosen citizens.

Public Opinion Polla relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.

The Theory of Probability

Sampling Error?

68%

95%

The Bell Curve

Representative Sampleeach individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected at random for inclusion in the survey

Straw PollsUnscientific surveys which make no attempt at using a representative (random) sample in their polling.

Think “Jaywalk All-Stars”-or local news

1936 Presidential Election

2004 Zogby Exit Polls

Push pollsPolls which deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” them into favoring a particular candidate or issue.

Push PollsDo you support abortion?Do you support the extermination of

unborn children?

Do you favor Obama?Would you support Obama if he favored tax

increases?

Sampling IssuesBiased sample population

SELECTION BIAS is the most important issueInherent characteristics of a sample which lead it to

be unrepresentative of the population at large.Representative = mirror of the population

Pollsters should really focus on the voting population

Sampling IssuesBiased sample population

Most important issueSample Size

Quantity is good, quality is better

Sampling IssuesBiased sample population

Most important issueSample Size

Quantity is good, quality is betterWording of questions/response options

“framing can occur” as with push polls

Examples of Selection BiasOriginal Studies on Vegetarian Diets

Examples of Selection Bias

Original studies on Vegetarian DietsUnited Nations is terrible at peacekeepingCauses of War case studies

Actual Question

Actual Question

Use of PollsRachel Maddow (and others): 72% of

Foxnews viewers oppose the Civil Rights Act

Is this an accurate depiction?

Civil Rights Act (1964)Title I: Equal Application of Voter Registration

StandardsTitle II: No discrimination in “public

accommodations engaged in interstate commerce”Title III: Sub-National Governments cannot ban

access to public facilities based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity

Title IV: Attorney General can sue to enforce desegregation

Title V: Expanded powers of Civil Rights CommissionTitle VI: No discrimination by government agencies

that receive federal funding

Use of PollsOne provision of the act is vaguely

referenced

Consider this alternative:

Do you support the Civil Rights Act of 1964?Yes: 28%No: 72%

Would the conclusion “72% of Foxnews viewers oppose Civil Rights Act” be accurate?

Use of PollsNO!!!

We still don’t know the nature of the sampleNot all viewers were askedThe sample was not random (it was self-

selected)

72% of RESPONDENTS, not viewers

Other issuesMiddle Tendencies“Socially acceptable” responsesSome “pretend” to have an opinion

Public Affairs Act (filter question)

Consider this…A national public opinion poll of 1200

randomly selected respondents indicated:620 (51.7%) favor Obama580 (48.3%) favor McCain

This is a +/- 2.8% confidence intervalWho is leading???

The Leader is…No oneObama could be supported by as low as

48.9%McCain could be favored by as high as

51.1%

“Statistical dead heat”

Why does public opinion matter?Some argue government should reflect the

will of the peopleClinton very sensitive to polls (Somalia)Bush not so much

Media will mislead, misinterpret, “misunderestimate,” etc.Be skeptical of what is reported

Political Socializationthe learning process through which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs and values.

Political beliefs are acquired through a lifelong learning process.

Age-Cohort Tendency

Agents of Political Socialization

FamilySchoolsMass MediaPeersPolitical Institutions & Leaders

Churches

Public Opinion of…Race and ethnicityReligionRegionCity vs. countryParty Affiliation