Post on 11-May-2015
Japan’s Three Territorial Issues
May 15, 2012Kazuhiko Togo
Kyoto Sangyo University
Historical memory: Summer 1945 Cold War: 51 San Francisco; 56 Joint Declaration; 60 Gromyko statement
Post-Cold War: 25 years of negotiations
Northern Territories: Past
KE talk HStransfer
KEdecide
91 Ka.-Go.
OK NO ------
93 Tok.D.
OK OK indirect
------
01 Irkutsk
OK OK start
2006 Russian decisions: Resume talks + Invest to the islands
2009 “unlawful occupation” 2010 Medvedev’s visit to Kunashiri
2012: Putin reelected as president
March 1 Press interview May 7 Inauguration
Northern Territories: Present
How should we evaluate Putin? Probably last stage negotiations are opened for the foreseeable future
Economic cooperation projects Starting from Irkutsk Anything but “four islands en bloc (ikkatsu)”
Half to one year negotiations period Who are the negotiators?
Northern Territories: Future
1895~1971 Japanese sovereignty, no objection from China or Taiwan
1971: Taiwan and china claim (Oil 1968) 72 Zhou “not now”; 78 Deng “next generation” tacit agreement to shelve
90 China’s territorial water law 97 Fishery agreement 02 GOJ lease 04 seven activists landing
Senkaku: Past
2008 Research vessels for 9 hours sailing
2010.9.7 Collision of fishery vessels to coast guards
“core interests” : key strategic location between Taiwan and Okinawa, which is on the first islands chain
Possibility to explode as historical memory issue: outside Ryuukyu’s 36 islands; 1885 GOJ’s hesitancy; precursor to Taiwan
Senkaku: Present
Prepare : dynamic defense position and strengthening of southern deployment of MSDF from December 2010
Talk: Gromyko’s humiliation not needed
What to aim? From minimal control to peaceful coexistence, eventually to joint economic activities
Senkaku: Future
1905 Shimane ownership 1910 Korea’s annexation 51 San Francisco (IL Japan stronger) 1954 Korea’s Takeshima occupation 1965 Normalization talk Historical memory: precursor to the annexation + identity emotionalism
1998 Fishery agreement
Takeshima: Past
2005 Shimane Prefecture’s “Takeshima Day” diplomatic war
2006 sea bed map incident 2008 textbook and naming issue 2011 three parliamentarians’ visa refused
Takeshima: Present
Talk: sovereignty, track II more realistic
2011 Ikeuchi and Kim talk Confidence building measure: governments’ imitative needed; Japan-Russia experience to borrow
June 2009 SAIS Conference
Takeshima: Future