Post on 11-May-2018
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Project Management tools for the Large Hadron Collider project
Jurgen De Jonghe
Pierre A BonnalPierre A. Bonnal
CERN, European Laboratory for Particle Physics, Geneva, Switzerland
What is a large‐scale project?
Technically complex and demanding,i.e. that cannot be fully specified in the front‐end phase;
Long makespan: economical effects, variations of FX rates,
Involving many contributors, contractors, suppliers... i.e. many activities that are outsourced, result‐oriented.
LHC?
cryogenics superconductivity ultra high vacuum appscryogenics, superconductivity, ultra‐high vacuum apps, electronics, computing, civil engineering…
some 500 FTEs × 12 years (1995–2007);
material: more than 3 GCHF95 (3.75GCHF);
Over 6000 different suppliers and contractors
with ATLAS, CMS, ALICE, LHC‐b & Computing = LHC Programme2
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CERN’s EVMS | Project audit of 2001
The LHC Project was a “Must Win” project: under‐funded?
Technical Coordinator → “the project is behind schedule”
Project Administrator → “the project is under‐running”
Ad hoc link between cost control and scheduling system
The LHC Project Management Team was therefore not in position to demonstrate that EAC < TAB
Member States asked CERN Management and the LHC ProjectManagement to set up an appropriate Project Control System
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EVM Basics
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EVM Basics
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EVM Basics
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CERN’s EVMS | The key requirements
an EVM‐based project control system (ANSI standard 748)
a deliverable‐oriented physical progress monitoring system
interfaced to CERN’s corporate systems (accounting, contract management, human resource)
manages in‐kind contributions
web‐based (the WWW was born at CERN!!) but also uses Excel spreadsheets to interact with DBs
activity scheduling & time‐control reporting engines delayed
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CERN’s EVMS | Why a D‐O EVMS?
CERN’s arguments were the following:
In a distributed project environment, transparency of theh i l ti i i ifi tl i dphysical progress reporting is significantly improved
E.g. a “10 cold masses out of 20” physical progress statementis more informative than a “50% complete” statement!
Payment milestones of result‐oriented contracts refer toeffective deliveries
The finish dates of contract activities are always known!
More suited to implement a Line of Balance scheduling engine More suited to implement a Line‐of‐Balance scheduling engine
Finally, this is a trend in project management practices (ref. P.A. Howard. Deliverable‐oriented project management. ProjectWorld’98 Proceedings, 1998)
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CERN’s DO EVMS | Principles
“Standard Activity” (or “Standard Work Unit” in CERN’s PM jargon)
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CERN’s DO EVMS | Principles
“Outsourced Activity”
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CERN’s DO EVMS | Principles
“Complex Activity”EVj = × Σj BACk
Σj ωl × DAl
Σj ωl
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CERN’s EVMS | Main characteristics
It is deliverable‐oriented
It works with a lean project management team It works with a lean project management team
It is collaborative
it allows ad hoc alerting
transparency is promoted(discover overlapping or incomplete areas)
continuous re‐planning is encouraged(trend PV against baseline PV)
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LHC Project EVMS | Weak points
The LHC Project EVMS was introduced while AC = CHF 1 billion!!
Too many activities (work units) 12’000+ activitieseasily managed by the system, but difficult for humans
“Varying granularity” of activities:from a few kCHF to several MCHF
from a few weeks to several months
Project Engineers plan too optimistically (“Human nature”) Project Engineers plan too optimistically (“Human nature”)…to obtain budget (it’s easier to carry over)
Weak integration with schedule networks
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LHC Project EVMS | Strong points
Despite the late introduction of this system to the project:
tailored tools tailored tools
Excel interface to interact with DBs very appreciated
strongly integrated with corporate databases
deliverable‐oriented approach revealed to be efficient
planned (baseline) vs. expected (trend) figures useful
“AC = EV rule” for in‐kind contribution worked well
incidentally: one repository of activities for all groups(eliminate overlap, detect holes…)
strong Project Leader support (essential)
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Outcome of EVM experience…
Re‐established trust of external partners.
CERN management was formally congratulated by g f y g yMember States.
Further LHC overruns were discussed in the context of proven project control via EVM.
The LHC Cost and Schedule Review Committee considered the application of EVM to be ‘world class’the application of EVM to be world class .
Project culture at CERN and cost awareness of project engineers have improved.
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CERN’s EVMS | Further uses
Design and developed for the LHC Project, but implemented on several other projects
ATLAS Detector Project
LHC (machine and infrastructures) Project
CNGS (CERN Neutrino Beam to Gran Sasso) Project (completed on schedule, under budget in 2006)
EGEE Project(on going)
Linac4 Project(on going)
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Need for Linear & RepetitiveNeed for Linear & Repetitive Scheduling Methods
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Scheduling
CPM (C i i l P h) / PDM (P d Di i ) CPM (Critical Path) / PDM (Precedence Diagramming)
Excellent companions to EVM
A critical task is not necessarily expensive…
Fragile for large sets of workunits
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Need for Linear Scheduling methods
Setting up a project activity network diagram for strict application of CPM or PDM is hard: 1800 cryo‐magnets need to be manufactured and installed
Single unit is complex: hundreds of operations in assembly
Schedule should also ensure efficient use of available crews/resources. Work load continuity between repetitive activitiesWork load continuity between repetitive activities
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Introducing Repetitive & Linear Tasks
units
1800
meters
yk
k
time
1800
0
S F
k
time0
S F
xk
yk
k’
k
Sk Fk Sk Fk
k : Production rate (units/month)
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What do we want to schedule?
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Master Schedule for Installation
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Repetitive Schedule for the Production of LHC Dipole Cryo‐magnets (Coils)
Many othercomponents
Manycomponents
Many othercomponents
Many othercomponents
ManufactureSC cable
Inner LayerAssemble
Inner Layer
unit no.
1250
1000Assemble Coils
Manycomponents Many other
components
componentsMany othercomponents
AssembleOuter Layer
AssembleCoil
AssemblePole
AssembleDipole
Cryo-magnet
ManufactureSC cable
Outer Layer
1000
750
500
250
1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Manufacture SC Cables
Assemble Inner & Outer Layers
Assemble Poles
Assemble DipoleCryo-magnets
Sub‐optimal scheduling
repetitive activities often have different production rates.
production rate imbalance → negatively impacting project performance by causing
Work stoppages,
Inefficient utilization of resources
Excessive costs
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Repetitive tasks scheduled with CPMunits
k
k
j
time
k
Sub-optimal !
j
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RSM modeled with PDM constraints
jk jk jk units
k jj’j’’
time
k
jSS with Lagkj (span of k)
j’j’’FF with Lagkj (span of j)
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LSM modeling: “basic” PDM breaks down
jjk TSSS
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meters
xj
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k
kj
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jjjjk
xxyxTSSS
jkk
kj
j
jjjjk L
xxyxTSSS
timexk
Sj Sk Fj Fk
kj
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Details will be published in>=
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Details will be published in Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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Analytical Linear Scheduling Method
While the formula’s and the number of cases to examine looks daunting, the idea is based on basic PDM:
Earliest Start dates: calculated by propagation in a forward pass
Earliest Finish dates are easily derived
Latest Finish dates: calculated by propagation in a backward pass
Latest Start dates are easily derived
Total and Free floats are derived from ES and LF (which identify critical activities)
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Dealing with economic issues such as inflationDealing with economic issues such as inflation and currency exchange rate
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Economic Risks
Managing a Project Baseline is not a straightforward exercise: imprecise figures, unexpected events...
The comparison of actual figures with planned ones is not straightforward either: inflation, variations of FX rates...
Practices are, in this respect, not (so much) standardized!
Technical problems, programmatic problems… are the responsibility of the project management teams
But can a project management team be made responsible for But can a project management team be made responsible for economical or commercial unexpected events?
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Project Management Reserve
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Reminder: What is a large‐scale project?
Technically complex and demanding,i.e. that cannot be fully specified in the front‐end phase;
Long makespan: economical effects, variations of FX rates,
Involving many contributors, contractors, suppliers... i.e. many activities that are outsourced, result‐oriented.
LHC?
cryogenics superconductivity ultra high vacuum appscryogenics, superconductivity, ultra‐high vacuum apps, electronics, computing, civil engineering…
some 500 FTEs × 12 years (1995–2007);
material: more than 3 GCHF95 (3.75GCHF);
Over 6000 different suppliers and contractors
with ATLAS, CMS, ALICE, LHC‐b & Computing = LHC Programme33
There are basically two approaches to cost estimate and budget large‐scale projects:
What is really included in PV?
the so‐called "Old world" approach.
the so‐called "US Government" approach.
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What is in PV as per the “Old World” approach?
1.The costs are estimated at WP/PP level, as if everything was bought or paid today.
2.After reviews, these estimates become budgets.
3.The WPs and PPs, and their budgets, are spread over th j t kthe project makespan.
4.The PV curves are then drawn.
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What is in PV as per the “US Gov” approach?
1.The costs are estimated at WP/PP level.
2.The WPs and PPs, and their budgets, are spread over
the project makespan.
3.Estimated escalation rates are applied to all cost figures.
4 These time dependant cost figures become budgets4.These time‐dependant cost figures become budgets.
5.The PV curves are then drawn.
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What is in PV as per the “US Gov” approach?
FY R h &�O ti &I f tiE i t l
Project Categories
n/a2.32.82.72 6
1.0001.0231.0511.0801 108
n/a1.82.62.72 6
1.0001.0181.0451.0731 101
n/a0.80.90.51 0
1.0001.0081.0171.0221 032
n/a2.02.72.72 6
1.0001.0201.0471.0751 103
n/a2.12.52.92 8
1.0001.0211.0461.0761 106
20022003200420052006
FY Research &Development
�Operation &Maintenance
InformationTechnologies
EnvironmentalManagementConstruction
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Escalation rate assumption for DoE projects (as of January 2002)downloadable from http://oecm.energy.gov/ [June 2005]
2.62.5
1.1081.136
2.62.4
1.1011.127
1.00.8
1.0321.041
2.62.4
1.1031.130
2.82.6
1.1061.135
20062007
“US Gov” vs. “Old World” approach
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Progress monitored in “US Gov” approach
if WPj is still planned.if WP is completed
0BACEV (t)
EV(t) in running dollars (r$).EVj(t)
jSEV(t) =
if WPj is completed.if WPj is on-going.
BACj
BACj × X%EVj(t) =
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AC(t) in running dollars (r$).
expenses, as recorded in the ledger.t0
t
SAC(t) =
Progress monitored in “US Gov” approach
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Progress monitored in “Old World” approach
if WPj is still planned.f WP l d
0BACEV ( )
EV(t) in initial pounds (i£).EVj(t)
jSEV(t) =
if WPj is completed.if WPj is on-going.
BACj
BACj × X%EVj(t) =
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AC(t) in initial pounds (i£).r£ into i£.
as recorded in the ledger.
(1 + i)nexpenses
t0
t
SAC(t) =
Progress monitored in “Old World” approach
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The reality of project management practitioners is even more complicated! E.g.: outsourced activities.
Progress monitored in “Old World” approach
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“US Gov” vs. “Old World” approach
Can an EVM system (suited to large‐scale projects) be both (relatively) simple and accurate?
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Towards a hybrid approach...
1. The costs are estimated at WP/PP level, as if everythingwas bought or paid at t = t0.
2. After reviews, these estimates become budgets.3. The WPs and PPs, and their budgets, are spread over
the project makespan.
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the project makespan.4. The PV curves are then drawn.
Towards a hybrid approach...
5. Every year or twice a year, the BACs (and the PVs)h i i d dj d d dthe remaining WPs and PPs are adjusted or updated to integrate enonomical affects.
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6. The differential is either picked up from the Project Management Reserve (PMR) or from additional fundingsby, and agreed with, the project owners.
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Towards a hybrid approach...
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Towards a hybrid approach...
This is the model we have chosen for the LHC Project.
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How to make this approach work: Initiating phase
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How to make this approach work: Planning phase
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