Estimation:Dante’s 8th circle…..

Johnnie FoxProject StrategistJohnnie FoxProject Strategist

husband • geek •

photographer •

traveler • motorcyclist • kayaker

• traveler•entrepreneur

•

Recovering Developer

Business Analyst

Certified Scrum Master

Drupal/Custom Development/IOS/C#

$500 - $1,000,000 projects

Project Strategist

Purpose of Estimate

Foundation for Project PlanningSales ToolProject Planning

Estimating Sucks

Good estimates increase moraleGood estimates build reputationsThere is no pot of gold at the end of the

rainbow unless you put it there

Industry Performance

Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art – Steve McConnel

Equal Chance?

Projects are unfair

Cone of Uncertainty

Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art – Steve McConnel

Truism

The organization that most convincingly underestimates the project has the highest chance of being awarded the work.

Highly Structured

“High structure implies that the nature of the task defines its outputs, the possibility of users changing their minds about the desired outputs is practically nonexistent, and significant change management issues are not present.”

1Harvard Business School Press (2004-02-19). Harvard Business Essentials Managing Projects Large and Small: The Fundamental Skills for Delivering on Budget and on Time (Kindle Locations 220-223). Harvard Business Review Press. Kindle Edition.

Types of Projects

New siteSite supportMigration Site to siteNew features/existing site

Types of Estimates

Project SizingSales EstimateProject initiation estimateIn project estimationSupport estimates

Estimating Spreadsheet:

Goals

Re –usableConsistent formatAble to use in SOWCan be used by PM/SA on Project InceptionMargin Estimation

Concepts

DefensibleTo Dev Team To ClientTo Sales Team

PM Definition

A good estimate is an estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets..

McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 534-536). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.

Estimation Process

Strategies to improve EstimatesPrice what you knowKnowing when its different?Ask someone who has done it before Examine prior projects

Caution:

In a study of 300 software projects, Michiel van Genuchten reported that developer estimates tended to contain an optimism factor of 20% to 30% (van Genuchten 1991). Although managers sometimes complain otherwise, developers don’t tend to sandbag.

theirMcConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 1095-1096). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition

Promet Caution

Promet recourses tend not to estimate any related tasks to the item they are estimating (Theme, PM, Setup time)

Types of Time

Dev timeThemer TimeProject Management Quality AssuranceDevOps/Sysadmin

WBSModified Delphi Estimation method.Developed by Rand Corporation in

the 40'sFancy word for list - Work

Breakdown Structure (WBS)Make estimate separate and then

compare

• After lists are made members meet and compare lists.  

• Everyone must participate. • If there is no conflict and you didn't get any

additions you are doing it wrong.

Translating Clients

Customers want features in their list Our job is to translate it into features the team

can complete

The Size of Time

Hour sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, Beyond 16 hrs

You don’t know what the task isEasy target for “Shouldn’t this be Lower”

Percentage Factors

PM Time 20%QA Time 15%

Minimum Cost

Dev Ops 4 – 12 hoursTraining Kickoff meetings

Standard Blocks

Sprint 0DesignCore Drupal (list)Contrib modules

(list)SEO modulesSocial SharingCustom features

• Workflow

• Integrations

• Ecommerce

• 3rd party

• Themeing

• Desktop

• Responsive

Standard Blocks

IntegrationAMS (CIVI etc)SSOBilling/ecommerce

TrainingDev OpsProject ManagementQA

Next Steps

Re-use EstimatesStock assemblies?Factors of Scale/sizeGranularitySales use only toolEstimation among other PMsReal world feedback

Risks

Missed requirementsTechnical Debt Incorrect assumptionsInfrastructure (VPN, Server Access)Poor client conditions

Uninvolved/UnresponsiveContact not technically savvy

Effort per Estimate

Project Size

Johnnie FoxJohnnie@promethost.comtwitter: johnniefox