• Program Specifically Designed for Senior Executives

• Issues and Insights Applicable to a Wide Range of Businesses and Industries

• First-Hand, Live Access to STRATFORIntelligence and Forecasting

• Special Guest: Dr. George Friedman, Chairman and Chief Intelligence Officer

• Presenter: Peter Zeihan, Senior Analyst

• Moderator: Stephen Sunshine, VP

• Use Standard 1024x768 Screen Resolution

• To Submit Questions: Type into Question Window and Press Submit

• To Refresh Presentation: Press F5

• To Participate in Audience Survey:

Disable Pop-up Blocker

• Press Help Button for Other Technical Issues

• Technology

• Demography

• Cooperation/Competition

• Bretton Woods and Beyond

• New markets, new players– Internet– Internal combustion engine– Avionics

• Shrinking the world– Railroads– Refrigeration– Telegraph

• Productivity

• The American advantage– Size– Age – Immigration– Location

• India vs. the United States

• Finland vs. the United States

• It is about tailoring your policies to take advantage of your environment

• 1500-1918: Age of empires

• 1919-1945: Great Depression and War

• Characterized by intense economic competition on competing economic standards

• WWII and Great Depression provided impetus for a new – cooperative – system

• IMF and World Bank

• Maximize trade

• Common economic space

• GATT and the WTO

• Economic means to geopolitical ends

• Part of containment policy

• U.S. provides market of first and last resort and accepts chronic trade deficits; allies submit to U.S. security policy

• GATT and NATO two sides of the same coin

• 1992 marked the beginning of a unipolar geopolitical system

• Cold War security guarantees no longer needed to be absolute

• Players began to reevaluate their positions: how much is the U.S. market worth in terms of political constraints?

• New players – such as China and Russia – never agreed to the original trade off

• Those decisions had consequences

• “Trade off” means two sides

• Bush II’s goal: Secure long-term trend and ensure permanent U.S. dominance– Political– Military– Economic

• Manipulating exchange rates

• Increased subsidy levels

• An end to the WTO

• Limited market access unless target is politically useful

• Hardball with China