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PROFIT PREDICTION FOR BABY PRODUCTS
BASED ON CONSUMERS’ PURCHASING
BEHAVIOR
NURSYAZA BINTI HUSSIN
BACHELOR OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
(SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT) WITH HONOURS
UNIVERSITI SULTAN ZAINAL ABIDIN
2019
1
PROFIT PREDICTION FOR BABY PRODUCTS
BASED ON CONSUMERS’ PURCHASING BEHAVIOR
NURSYAZA BINTI HUSSIN
BACHELOR OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
(SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT) WITH HONOURS
FACULTY OF INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING
UNIVERSITI SULTAN ZAINAL ABIDIN
2019
I
DECLARATION
This dissertation is submitted as a partial fulfilment for the award of a Bachelor of
Computer Science (Software Development) with Honors at the University Sultan Zainal
Abidin (UniSZA), Terengganu, Malaysia. This work is a result of my investigation. All
section of the text and results, which have been obtaining from other sources are fully
referenced.
Signature : …………………
Name : Nursyaza Binti Hussin
Date : 12 May 2019
II
CONFIRMATION
This project report titled Profit Prediction for Baby Products Based On Consumers’
Purchasing Behavior was prepared and submitted by Nursyaza Binti Hussin and has been
found satisfactory in terms of scope, quality and presentation as a part of fulfillment of the
requirement for the Bachelor of Computer Science (Software Development) with Honours
in Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin.
Signature : …………………………...
Supervisor : Mr. Mohd Isa Bin Awang
Date : 9 May 2019
III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all who provided me the possibility
complete this report. A special gratitude goes to my supervisor, Mr. Mohd Isa Bin Awang
for guiding me in the development of this project. My warmest gratitude for my Final Year
Project panels for aiding my system and giving the feedback and valuable guidance.
I take this opportunity to thank my parents and my family for giving moral support
and encouragement. Special thanks to all lectures under Faculty of Informatics and
Computing for their attentions, guidance and advice in developing this project. I, sincere
thanks to my fellow friends for their help in finishing this project.
IV
ABSTRACT
Anakku is the trusted baby brand in Malaysia that offers all categories of childcare.
The company find it difficult to calculate profit based on baby products sales because of
the different cost and sale by each product. It also hard to estimate future business
performance. Profit prediction for baby products based on consumers’ purchasing behavior
system is a business method for Anakku baby brand. The system aims to facilitate customers
to make reservations and facilitate management to manage baby product stocks effectively.
The technique to be adapted in the project is to use the least square method which is a way
to generate profit forecasts in the future. Forecasting sales and profits is essential to
planning for business success. The result for this project is enable to estimate future
business performance based on the actual profits from prior periods and enables the baby
shop owner to modify the operation of the business on a timely basis. So, as a conclusion
this project allows the business to avoid losses or major financial problems should some
future results from operations not conform with reasonable expectations.
V
ABSTRAK
Anakku adalah jenama bayi yang dipercayai di Malaysia yang menawarkan semua
kategori penjagaan anak. Syarikat ini sukar untuk mengira keuntungan berdasarkan
penjualan produk bayi kerana kos dan jualan yang berbeza oleh setiap produk. Ia juga
sukar untuk menganggarkan prestasi perniagaan masa hadapan. “Profit prediction based
on consumers’ purchasing behavior” adalah kaedah perniagaan untuk jenama bayi
Anakku. Sistem ini bertujuan untuk memudahkan pelanggan membuat tempahan dan
memudahkan pengurusan untuk menguruskan stok produk bayi dengan berkesan. Teknik
yang akan disesuaikan dalam projek ini adalah menggunakan “least square method” yang
merupakan cara untuk menjana ramalan keuntungan pada masa akan datang. Hasil
daripada projek ini membolehkan untuk menganggarkan prestasi perniagaan masa depan
berdasarkan keuntungan sebenar dari tempoh sebelumnya dan membolehkan pemilik kedai
bayi mengubahsuai operasi perniagaan secara tepat waktu. Oleh itu, sebagai kesimpulan
projek ini membolehkan perniagaan untuk mengelakkan kerugian atau masalah kewangan
utama sekiranya beberapa keputusan masa depan dari operasi tidak sesuai dengan
harapan yang munasabah.
VI
CONTENTS
DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................. i
CONFIRMATION .......................................................................................................................... ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................................. iii
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... iv
ABSTRAK ....................................................................................................................................... v
CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... viii
LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS / TERMS / SYMBOLS ............................................................... xii
CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Objective .............................................................................................................................. 4
1.4 Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 5
1.5 Limitation of Works ................................................................................................................... 5
1.6 Expected Results ........................................................................................................................ 6
1.7 Activities and Milestones ........................................................................................................... 7
1.8 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 8
CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................... 9
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 9
2.2 Related Research Techniques and Tools .................................................................................. 10
2.3 Least Square Method ............................................................................................................... 12
2.4 Summary .................................................................................................................................. 14
CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................. 15
3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 15
3.2 Agile development ................................................................................................................... 16
3.3 Software and Hardware Requirement ................................................................................. 19
3.4 Framework ............................................................................................................................... 21
3.5 Context Diagram ...................................................................................................................... 22
3.6 Data Flow Diagram .................................................................................................................. 24
3.7 Entity Relationship Diagram .................................................................................................... 28
VII
3.8 Data Dictionary ........................................................................................................................ 29
3.9 Algorithm and Technique ........................................................................................................ 32
3.10 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 37
CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................. 38
4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 38
4.2 Implementation of the System ............................................................................................. 39
4.3 Programming Language ....................................................................................................... 40
4.4 Interface Design ................................................................................................................... 40
4.5 Chapter Summary ................................................................................................................ 72
CHAPTER 5 ................................................................................................................................. 73
5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 73
5.2 Testing Analysis ................................................................................................................... 74
5.3 Test Cases ............................................................................................................................ 75
5.3 Chapter Summary .......................................................................................................... 79
CHAPTER 6 ................................................................................................................................. 80
6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 80
6.2 Project Contribution ............................................................................................................. 80
6.3 Result Discussion ................................................................................................................. 81
6.4 Project Constraints and Limitation ...................................................................................... 81
6.5 Future Work ......................................................................................................................... 82
6.6 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 82
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 83
VIII
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE TITLE
PAGE
Table 1.1 Gantt chart
7
Table 3.1 Software Requirement
19
Table 3.2 Hardware Requirement
20
Table 3.3 Gross profit example data
33
Table 3.4
Least square method example data
35
Table 3.5
Least square method Y’ result 36
Table 5.1 Test Case Fail Login
75
Table 5.2 Test Case Admin Success Login
76
Table 5.3 Test Case Customer Success Login
76
Table 5.4 Test Case Add Product
77
Table 5.5 Test Case Update Product
77
Table 5.6 Test Case Delete Product
77
Table 5.7 Test Case Manage Order
78
Table 5.8 Test Case Forecast Sales
79
Table 5.9 Test Case Forecast Profit
79
IX
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE TITLE
PAGE
Figure 3.1 Agile development
36
Figure 3.2
Framework 21
Figure 3.3
Context Diagram 22
Figure 3.4
Data Flow Diagram Level 0 24
Figure 3.5
Data Flow Diagram sign up Level 1 26
Figure 3.6
Data Flow Diagram manage product Level 1 27
Figure 3.7
Entity relationship diagram 28
Figure 3.8
Table user 30
Figure 3.9
Table product 30
Figure 3.10
Table orderpro 30
Figure 3.11
Table payment 31
Figure 3.12
Table profit 31
Figure 4.1 Login for Admin
41
Figure 4.2 Home (main page)
42
Figure 4.3 Add product (display product form)
43
Figure 4.4 Update product (display list of product)
44
Figure 4.5 Update product (display product form)
44
Figure 4.6 Delete product (display list of product)
45
X
Figure 4.7 Search customer details (display list of customer details)
46
Figure 4.8 Search customer details (result search)
46
Figure 4.9 Update order (display list of order details)
47
Figure 4.10 Update order (display update form)
48
Figure 4.11 Update payment (display list of payment)
49
Figure 4.12 Update order (display update form)
50
Figure 4.13 Select product name (sales by product)
52
Figure 4.14 Display report (sales by product)
52
Figure 4.15 Select product name (sales by month)
53
Figure 4.16 Display report (sales by month)
53
Figure 4.17 Select product name (profit by product)
54
Figure 4.18 Display report (profit by product)
54
Figure 4.19 Select product name (profit by month)
55
Figure 4.20 Display report (profit by month)
55
Figure 4.21 Select product name (forecast sales (quantity) by product)
56
Figure 4.22 Display report (forecast sales (quantity) by product)
56
Figure 4.23 Select product name (forecast profit by product)
57
Figure 4.24 Display report (forecast profit by product)
57
Figure 4.25 Home (before login)
58
Figure 4.26 Product display (before login)
59
Figure 4.27 Customer registration
60
Figure 4.28 Customer login
61
Figure 4.29 Customer home
62
Figure 4.30 Customer home (product category) 62
XI
Figure 4.31 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu
63
Figure 4.32 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (info)
64
Figure 4.33 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (plan)
64
Figure 4.34 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (click product)
65
Figure 4.35 Add to cart
66
Figure 4.36 My cart
67
Figure 4.37 Shipping address (form)
68
Figure 4.38 Payment
69
Figure 4.39 Order status
70
Figure 4.40 Search product
71
XII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS / TERMS / SYMBOLS
CD
Context Diagram
DFD Data Flow Diagram
ERD Entity Relationship Diagram
SDLC System Development Life Cycle
COGS Cost of Goods Sold
1
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Anakku is the trusted baby brand in Malaysia that offers all categories of childcare.
The brand received recognition from the Malaysian Textile Manufacturer Association
(MTMA). Anakku started manufacturing and marketing a wide range of basic baby apparel.
Anakku has a wide variety of products that are competitively priced for a wide market
segment. Parents wanted more than just comfortable apparel that lasts. Then, Anakku went
the extra mile to further expand its range to include fashion wear for babies and toddlers,
feeding equipment, toiletries for both parents and babies, accessories, baby wipes, strollers,
playpens and more.
Profit prediction for baby products based on consumer purchasing behavior system
is a business method for Anakku baby brand. The system aims to facilitate customers to
make reservations and facilitate management to manage baby product stocks effectively.
2
In addition, this system becomes more efficient when work such as searching, storing,
updating information can be implemented more quickly and regularly.
The technique to be adapted in the project is to use the least square method which
is a way to generate profit forecasts in the future. Forecasting sales and profits is essential
to planning for business success. This process estimating future business performance
based on the actual profits from prior periods, enables the baby shop owner to modify the
operation of the business on a timely basis. This allows the business to avoid losses or
major financial problems should some future results from operations not conform with
reasonable expectations.
This project is developed specifically for baby shop owner who can help to facilitate
the online purchase process as well as assist future business plans to increase profitability
and avoid losses. They can make business planning based on the profit prediction result
and gain more profit in the future. Business planning is important to maintain the business
performance and makes business success.
3
1.2 Problem Statement
1) Difficulties to gauge profitability by baby products sales
The company find it difficult to calculate profit based on baby products sales
because of the different cost and sale by each product. Each product has their own
cost to be produced and the cost are including the cost of expenses and the cost of
goods sold. So, the calculation is different by each product and takes time to
calculate. Profit is income earned by the sales and it is very important part because
wrong calculation will affect the business future.
2) Arduous in estimates future business performance
Estimating future business performance based on the actual profits from
prior periods, enables the manager to modify the operation of the business on a
timely basis. Prediction for future profit can shows which product are profitable and
which product are making a loss. The business needs to avoid losses or major
financial problems should some future results from operations not conform with
reasonable expectations.
4
1.3 Objective
1) To design a system for ordering and manage baby products
This is an online shopping system for customer to make an order for baby
products and facilitate management to manage baby products stocks.
2) To implement least square method to forecast profit in selected period of times
The system using least square method to forecast profit by month. The
calculation is made by the actual past month profits sale and makes forecasting
profit.
3) To test the capabilities of the system and produce profit forecast based on sales
Customer can easily make an order for baby products and facilitate
management to manage baby products stocks effectively. The system can calculate
profit for baby products and profit forecasting for a next month.
5
1.4 Scope
The scope for this project is identified and divided by two which is Customer and Admin.
1) Customer
Customer can register to system before able to login the system using email
and password. Customer can view all the products and the details. Customer can
order the product and update the order before makes a confirmation. After makes a
confirmation, customer can make a payment based on their orders. Customer also
can check on their order status.
2) Admin
Admin can manage baby products stock with update the details and quantity
of availability baby products stock. Admin can view the customer’s order and
payment to manage the process of product delivery. Admin can view the profit by
the product categories and month. Admin can view the prediction of future profit
by product. Admin also can view the all system report.
1.5 Limitation of Works
The limitation of this system is the system can be used only in web based. In this
system, admin able to view the profit by categories and profit prediction only for the
next month.
6
1.6 Expected Results
The expected results of this system are:
Able to view profitability based on baby products sales
Forecasting profit for baby products based on the actual profits from prior
periods to estimates future business performance
7
1.7 Activities and Milestones
Using a Gantt Chart that describes key of activities and timescales involves in
implementing this project
Task
Week
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1.0 Project Introduction Phase
1.1 Title Proposal
1.2 Proposal Writing (Introduction)
1.2.1 Background
1.2.2 Problem statement
1.2.1 Objectives
1.2.3 Scope
1.2.4 Limitation of work
1.2.5 Expected results
1.2.6 Activities and Milestones
1.2.7 Submission and Correction
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Related Technique
2.2 System Technique
2.3 Submission and Correction
3.0 Design and Specification Phase
3.1 Project Methodology
3.2 Software and Hardware
3.3 Framework
3.4 Context Diagram
3.5 Dataflow Diagram
3.6 Entity Relationship Diagram
3.7 Data Dictionary
3.8 Submission and Correction
Table 1.1: Gantt chart
8
1.8 Summary
Overall in this chapter, it was briefly explained about the background, problem
statement, objectives, scope, limitation of work, expected outcome, activities and
milestones. Based on this chapter, we can see the aim and target that system should achieve
and overcome problem by the expected outcome.
9
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
In this chapter, the significant literatures reviewed which described how this project
relates with existing research. The system related research is on forecasting technique.
Other forecasting methods are compared to for better understanding for method used in this
system. There are various technique and methods that had been used in order to make an
accurate forecasting. Each method is used for different approaches targeting for different
businesses.
10
2.2 Related Research Techniques and Tools
First article Is (CLAUDIMAR PEREIRA DA VEIGA, 2014) stated the present article aims
the comparison between two linear demand forecasting models which is The
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Holt-Winters (HW)
model. These techniques have exceptional adaptive capacity to deal with the linearity in
problem solving. The ARIMA forecasting model does not always have the desired accuracy
for a given range. In addition, ARIMA model has many assumptions that cannot be met.
One of the most important assumptions is that the historical pattern of the data will not
change during the forecast period. The Holt-Winters model is simple and can provide
accurate forecasting results as those obtained with more complex techniques. However, it
is recommended that the horizon of the predictions made with the Holt-Winters method
does not exceed the seasonal cycle of the series, because the predictions with a larger
horizon tend to have reduced accuracy.
Second article is Kumar (2013) applied various statistical time series models to
observe forecast errors in the demand of juice production are within the expected limit and
to select a forecasting technique which has a less relative error and showed that Least
Square Method is more accurate than the others. To forecast milk production in India using
statistical time series modeling- Double Exponential Smoothing and Auto- Regressive
Integrated Moving Average and concluded that ARIMA performed better than the others.
11
Third article is (Sonia Akhter**, September 2016) stated a forecast is an estimate
of an event which will happen in future. The event may be demand of a product, rainfall at
a particular place, population of a country, or growth of a technology. Forecasting provides
a basis for coordination of plans for activities in various part of a company. Application of
different method for demand forecasting is Simple Moving Average Method, Weighted
Moving Average Method, Simple Exponential Smoothing Method and Least Square
Method. Forecasting of Coca-Cola production has done by using statistical methods,
(Moving Average method, Simple Exponential Method and Least Square Method).
Statistical methods are chosen because of their rich historic data and ease of their use.
Finally, their performance was evaluated by comparing the MAPE, MAD and MSE
obtained from the different methods. The results show that Simple Exponential Smoothing
method is more accurate than the other methods.
12
2.3 Least Square Method
To predict the mean y-value for a given t-value, the line which passes through the
mean value of both t and y and which minimizes the sum of the distance between each of
the points and the predictive line. Such an approach should result in a line which we can
call a "best fit" to the sample data. The least squares method achieves this result by
calculating the minimum average squared deviations between the sample y points and the
estimated line. A procedure is sued for finding the values of a and b which reduces to the
solution of simultaneous linear equations. Shortcut formulas have been developed as an
alternative to the solution of simultaneous equations.
The estimation of trend analysis can be use least square method as one of the time
series models. Least square method is a method of constructing a straight line equation
through data points to obtain the best fitting line. This is the mathematical method of
obtaining the line of best fit between the dependent variable and an independent variable.
In this, the sum of the square of the deviations of the various points from the line of best fit
is most minimum or least. For straight line,
𝑌′=𝑎+𝑏𝑡
where 𝑌′ is estimated value of the variable 𝑌′ for a given value of 𝑡 and 𝑡 is the number of
time periods from 𝑡 = 0, 𝑎 is the value of y at 𝑡=0 (y – intercept) and b is slope of the line.
Parameters a and b can be calculated using the least-squares method.
13
Steps to forecast using linear line:
First, calculate use this formula to get 𝑏
Second, calculate use this formula to get 𝑎
Third, generate the linear trend line
𝒀′=𝒂+𝒃𝒕
Lastly, to make a forecast, use the linear trend line equation and replace the t to get Y’
14
2.4 Summary
Overall in this chapter, the research study is for better understanding in method and
technique use in the system. The selection of accurate techniques is very important to make
sure that the system at the right place before implement the method to system. The system
will successfully develop if the method is suitable for the objective of the system. Based on
the research study, we conclude that the least square method is the best suit for this system.
15
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
The methodology is the set of the complete guideline that includes the models of
tools to carry out activities in the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). SDLC splits
the work into phases of activity for better planning and management of the system
development. In order to achieve the objective of the project, a good planning and
methodology must be done before the later stage of the process began.
16
3.2 Agile development
The methodology that will be used in Profit Prediction based on Consumers’
Purchasing Behavior is Agile development. Agile development is an approach to
project management that is used in software development. This methodology assists the
unpredictability of constructing software and works as an iterative work sequences
which is the activities are repeated until the whole system is built.
There are six phases involved in the agile development which is requirements phase,
planning phase, design phase, development phase, release phase, track and monitoring
phase.
Figure 3.1: Agile development
17
3.2.1 Requirements Phase
At this phase, the process occurred is collecting the requirement and understand the
problems of the system. Find and analysis the existing system while determine their
technique and method involved. Brainstorming the project idea and proposed the title of
the project. Then, Profit Prediction based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior based on
consumers’ purchasing behavior was decided.
3.2.2 Planning Phase
During this phase, objectives of the system are identifying and all the requirements
are gathered in order to develop the system. Research for the system are being allocated
and research for the system is made by reading articles and journals related to the system
and the method used. System scheduling is created using a gantt chart to ensure that the
system will develop systematically and to make sure the project can be done on time.
3.2.3 Design Phase
Design phase of the system was developed based on the requirement and output
produced during analysis phase. Design the Context Diagram (CD), Data Flow Diagram
(DFD), and Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD) is build to translate the process flow of the
Profit Prediction based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior. These diagrams refer as
guidelines while develop this system. Then, designing the interface design of system as a
prototype before develop the system.
18
3.2.4 Development Phase
In this phase, all activities that have been planned during phase before are executed.
The system is developed using XAMPP, MySQL and Notepad++. Database and interface
designed during design phase are started to be developed. The process of writing the coding
are being done and the progress of the system are reported from time to time.
3.2.5 Release Phase
During this phase, the system is released to be used by the user. The users use the
system and give their feedback whether it needs to be improved or there is anything that
needs to be modify.
3.2.6 Track and Monitoring Phase
Track the error and modifications are being made based on the feedback from the
user to make sure the system is completely fulfilling the requirements. Then, monitor the
system to prevent the problem in the future.
19
3.3 Software and Hardware Requirement
In developing a system, hardware and software are required to develop a
successful system.
3.3.1 Software Requirement
Software
Function
Web Browser (Google Chrome) As a platform to run the system
Server (PHPMyAdmin) As a system database
Microsoft Office Word 2010 Used for documentation of the report
Microsoft Powerpoint 2010 Used for slide presentation
Visio To design context diagram and data flow
diagram
Table 3.1: Software Requirement
20
3.3.2 Hardware Requirement
Hardware
Type/
ASUS - Installed RAM : 8.00 GB
- Processor : Intel® Core ™ i7-
7700HQ @ 2.80- GHz
- System type : 64-bit Operating
System
- Windows edition : Windows 10
Home Single Language
Pendrive SanDisk 16 GB For backup and transfer data
Hard Disk Transcend 1 TB For backup system file
Printer HP Deskjet
For print out document
Table 3.2: Hardware Requirement
21
3.4 Framework
WEB Server Database
Customer Website Admin
Sign up
Order
Order status
Manage order
Order details
Figure 3.2: Framework
22
3.5 Context Diagram
Context diagram for Profit Prediction Based On Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior
is shown above. There are two entities are involves in the system which is ADMIN and
CUSTOMER.
Figure 3.3: Context Diagram
23
3.5.1 System Flow
System flow for Customer :-
1) CUSTOMER register to the system
2) CUSTOMER log in to the system
3) CUSTOMER update the user information
4) CUSTOMER order the product
5) CUSTOMER make the payment of purchase product
6) CUSTOMER get the order stastus
7) CUSTOMER get the order receipt
System flow for ADMIN :-
1) ADMIN log in to the system
2) ADMIN key in and update the product information
3) ADMIN get product report
4) ADMIN get user report
5) ADMIN get order report
6) ADMIN get payment report
7) ADMIN get result of forecast profit
25
There are six processes in data flow diagram that involves customer and admin
which is sign up, log in, manage order, payment, manage product, and generate report. First
user is customer. Customer need to sign up first, then login to the system as a first step to
get into the system. After login, Customer can make an order and payment. After that,
customer can check on order status. At the end on the process, customer can be logout from
the system.
Second user is admin. Admin need to login as the first step to get into the system.
Then process that involve admin are manage order, manage product and Generate Report
from the system. At the end on the process, admin can be logout from the system.
26
3.6.2 Data Flow Diagram Level 1
3.6.2.1 Data Flow Diagram Level 1 for Sign Up:
There are two processes in data flow diagram level 1 for sign up that involve
customer which is register and update. Customer need to register and after register,
customer can update customer information.
Figure 3.5: Data Flow Diagram sign up Level 1
27
3.6.2.2 Data Flow Diagram Level 1 for Manage Product:
There are two processes in data flow diagram level 1 for manage product that
involve admin which is add and update. Admin can add new product and update the
product.
Figure 3.6: Data Flow Diagram manage product Level 1
28
3.7 Entity Relationship Diagram
An entity relationship diagram (ERD) illustrates an information system’s entities
and the relationship between those entities. ERD composed of three things such as
identifying and defining the entities, determine entities interaction and the cardinality of
the relationship. Five tables that are involved in this system which is user, product,
orderpro, payment and profit.
Figure 3.7: Entity relationship diagram
29
3.8 Data Dictionary
A data dictionary is a file or a set of files that contains a database's metadata. The
data dictionary contains records about other objects in the database, such as data ownership,
data relationships to other objects, and other data. The data dictionary is a crucial
component of any relational database. Ironically, because of its importance, it is invisible
to most database users. For most relational database management systems (RDBMS), the
database management system software needs the data dictionary to access the data within
a database.
1. TABLE user
2. TABLE product
3. TABLE orderpro
4. TABLE payment
5. TABLE profit
30
3.8.1 TABLE user
3.8.2 TABLE product
3.8.3 TABLE orderpro
Figure 3.8: Table user
Figure 3.9: Table product
Figure 3.10: Table orderpro
32
3.9 Algorithm and Technique
There are two calculation for this system which is use gross profit formula and least
square method.
3.9.1 Gross Profit
Gross profit is a calculation to calculate profit sales. Gross profit is not include other
expenses. This is the formula for gross profit:
Revenue – COGS = Gross Profit
Revenue is a cost used to produce the product
COGS stand for cost of goods sold which means price to sell
33
3.9.1.2 Example data and calculation
Type Example Data (RM)
Unit cost 80
Price 100
Revenue 400
First, calculate use this formula to get margin,
(Unit cost / price) x 100 = Margin
(80 /100) x100 = 80%
Second, calculate use this formula and to get COGS,
Revenue x Margin = COGS
400 x 80% = 320
Then, calculate use this formula to get gross profit,
Revenue – COGS = Gross Profit
400 – 320 = 80
The gross profit is 80.
Table 3.3: Gross profit example data
34
3.9.2 Least Square Method
This method is to predict the mean y-value for a given t-value, a line passes through
the mean value of both t and y and which minimizes the sum of the distance between each
of the points and the predictive line. The equation of straight line:
𝑌′=𝑎+𝑏𝑡
• 𝑌′ is the estimated value of the variable 𝑌′ for a given value of 𝑡
• 𝑎 is the intercept on Y-axis (estimated value of Y at 𝑡 = 0)
• 𝑏 is a slope of the line
• 𝑡 is any value of time that is selected
To estimate two unknown parameters (a and b) that give the straight line equation, two
equations need to be solved simultaneously.
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3.9.2.3 Example data and calculation
This is an example of the data which is given month and profit. The t, tY and tt is
calculate based on the month and profit given.
Month Profit (RM Thousand) t tY tt
January 10 1 10 1
February 20 2 40 4
March 12 3 36 9
April 17 4 68 16
May 23 5 115 25
Σ 82 15 269 55
First, calculate use this formula to get b
Second, calculate use this formula to get a
So, the trend equation is therefore 𝑌′=11.6 + 1.6 𝑡
Then, use the trend equation and replace the t to get Y’.
269 – (82) (15) / 5
55 – (15^2) / 5
= 1.6
(82 / 5) – 1.6 (15 / 5) = 11.6
Table 3.4: Least square method example data
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Month Profit (RM Thousand) t Y’
January 10 1 11.6 + 1.6 (1) = 13.2
February 20 2 11.6 + 1.6 (2) = 14.8
March 12 3 11.6 + 1.6 (3) = 16.4
April 17 4 11.6 + 1.6 (4) = 18
May 23 5 11.6 + 1.6 (5) = 19.6
Y’ for January is 13.2, February is 14.8, March is 16.4, April is 18 and May is 19.6. So,
calculation Y’ for June is replace the t with 6.
11.6 + 1.6 (6) = 21.2
Forecast sales for June is 21.2.
Table 3.5: Least square method Y’ result
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3.10 Summary
Overall in this chapter, it was briefly explained about the methodology, framework,
Context Diagram (CD), Data Flow Diagram (DFD), Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD)
and show the data dictionary. The methodology is the set of the complete guideline that
includes the models of tools to carry out system activities. The selection of accurate
methodology is very important to make sure that the system is successful implemented and
achieved the objective. A framework is a set of functions within a system and how
communication should be standardized at some level of a network. A framework is
generally more comprehensive than a protocol and more prescriptive than a structure. Then,
Context Diagram, Data Flow Diagram (DFD) and Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD) are
diagram that show the flow of the system works. ERD composed of three things such as
identifying and defining the entities, determine entities interaction and the cardinality of
the relationship. Next, data dictionary is a file or a set of files that contains a database's
metadata. The data dictionary contains records about other objects in the database, such as
data ownership, data relationships to other objects, and other data. The data dictionary is a
crucial component of any relational database. Ironically, because of its importance, it is
invisible to most database users. For most relational database management systems
(RDBMS), the database management system software needs the data dictionary to access
the data within a database.
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CHAPTER 4
IMPLEMENTATION
4.1 Introduction
The implementation is the process of carrying out, execution, or practice of the
method, design or model according to the specification given by the user requirement.
The goal of this chapter is to show on the flow of the system during the development
process.
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4.2 Implementation of the System
For developing the Profit Prediction for Baby Product Based on Consumer’s
Purchasing Behavior, several programming languages has been used. The Xampp version
1.8.3-5 (v 3.2.1) with Apache version 2.4.10 are used to run the localhost server. The
Notepad++ version 6.3.6 are used for writing the code.
The interface design is using the bootstrap template. The serverside programming
language is using the Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP). The PHP is a powerful tool for
making dynamic and interactive Web Pages and widely used because it is general purpose
scripting language which can be embedded into HTML.
The validation used in this system is HTML5, PHP and JavaScript. The validation
is important to avoid the user from input malicious data and ensuring the input is clean,
correct and useful. For example, the name can accept only the alphabet, if user input the
number system will give a warning for the user to input the alphabet only.
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4.3 Programming Language
• PHP – use for form processes
• HTML5 – use to design interfaces
• JavaScript – use for graph and validation
4.4 Interface Design
The interface design which will be used for developing the system is shown as
below. The interface is developed from the data decomposition and the system
requirements. This system can be divided into 2 users which admin and customer.
4.4.1 Admin
Admin must login to the system before they can access to their module. The
interface for Admin to login into the system as shown in Figure 4.1.
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4.4.1.1 Login Interface
Figure 4.1 show the login screen for admin. The first login asks the username and
password. If the username and password are wrong, the system will display an error
message “Wrong email and password!”.
Figure 4.1: Login for Admin
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4.4.1.2 Dashboard
In this module, only admin is permitted to perform this action. This module for
admin to manage the product, order and payment. Admin also can view report from this
module. The main button for this interface are home, sales, profit, forecast, manage and log
out. From this interface we can see the earning by monthly, earning by annual, total sales
and earning graph. This data is real time updated based on sales.
Figure 4.2: Home (main page)
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4.4.1.3 Manage Product
Manage product module also can be performed by admin only. This module provide
admin to add product, update product and delete product from the database. Add product
will involve process in Figure 4.3 that display add product form. To update the product,
system will show as figure 4.4, list all the product. Insert product id and click “Update”
button then it will redirect to update form in Figure 4.5. Figure 4.6 will show the interface
to delete product from product list. Insert product id and click “Delete” button then it will
display message “Successfully deleted!”, then it will display error message “Data Not
Valid” if insert wrong product id.
Figure 4.3: Add product (display product form)
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Figure 4.4: Update product (display list of product)
Figure 4.5: Update product (display product form)
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4.4.1.4 Manage user
In manage user module, admin can manage to search customer information. Insert
the customer email and click “Search” button. Then it will display the full customer
information on figure 4.8. Admin use the customer information for shipping purpose.
Figure 4.7: Search customer details (display list of customer details)
Figure 4.8: Search customer details (result search)
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4.4.1.5 Manage Order
In manage order module, admin can manage to update customer order information
such as order status and tracking number on Figure 4.10. Figure 4.9 will display the list of
customer order then insert order id to update the information by click Update button. After
that, it will redirect to the update form on Figure 4.10 and admin need to choose order
status. There are three available order status which is “in process”, “to ship” and
“completed”. Admin also need to insert tracking number if order status changed to “to ship”
status. Click save button to update the information.
Figure 4.9: Update order (display list of order details)
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4.4.1.6 Manage Payment
In manage payment module, admin can manage to update customer payment
information such as payment status on Figure 4.12. Figure 4.11 will display the list of
customer payment then insert payment id to update and display the information by click
Update button. After that, it will redirect to the payment display and update form on Figure
4.12 and admin need to check the payment receipt details and choose payment status. There
are three available order status which is “in process”, “confirm received” and “complete”.
Click save button to update the information.
Figure 4.11: Update payment (display list of payment)
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4.4.1.7 Report
Report for admin separated into 6 type of reports that is customer sales report by
product, sales report by month, profit report by product, profit report by month, forecast
sales report and forecast profit report. Sales report by product are shown on Figure 4.14
that displayed list of all sales quantity and total sales by month for selected product name.
Then, sales report by month and are shown on Figure 4.16 that displayed list of all sales
quantity and total sales by product name for selected month.
Figure 4.17 need admin to select product for profit report by product and click Next.
Profit report by product are shown on Figure 4.18 that displayed list of all sales quantity,
total sales and total profit by month for selected product name. Then, Figure 4.19 need
admin to select month for profit report by month and click Next. Profit report by month are
shown on Figure 4.20 that displayed list of all sales quantity, total sales and total profits by
product for selected month.
Figure 4.21 need admin to select product for forecast sales quantity report by
product and click Next. Forecast sales quantity report by product are shown on Figure 4.22
that displayed list of all sales quantity, total sales and forecast sales quantity at the below
by month for selected product name. Then, Figure 4.23 need admin to select month for
forecast profit report by month and click Next. Forecast profit report by month are shown
on Figure 4.24 that displayed list of all sales quantity, total sales, total profits and forecast
profit at the below by product name for selected month.
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Figure 4.13: Select product name (sales by product)
Figure 4.14: Display report (sales by product)
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Figure 4.18: Display report (profit by product)
Figure 4.17: Select product name (profit by product)
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Figure 4.22: Display report (forecast sales (quantity) by product)
Figure 4.21: Select product name (forecast sales (quantity) by product)
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Figure 4.24: Display report (forecast profit by product)
Figure 4.23: Select product name (forecast profit by product)
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4.4.2 Customer
4.4.2.1 Home
This module only can be access by customer. This module will show main menu
page that not required customer to login into the system to review the product as shown in
Figure 4.25. The main menu button is home, go shopping, about us, find us and sign in or
create an account. Figure 4.26 show that customer need to login their account to the
system to make an order. If click on stroller icon will lead to figure 4.27.
Figure 4.25: Home (before login)
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4.4.2.2 Customer Registration
Figure 4.27 show form registration for new customer. Customer need to complete
their personal details before register on the system. Registration form required first name, last
name, email and password. After they make account registration, then they can login to the
system and make an order.
Figure 4.27: Customer registration
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4.4.2.3 Customer Login
Figure 4.28 show login form for customer to access their module. Only registered
customer can access it and make an order. Customer need to insert username and their
password as an authentication and verification.
Figure 4.28: Customer login
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4.4.2.4 Customer Main Menu
This interface will be display after customer has login into the system. This module
allow customer make an order, make a payment, view their order and order status as shown
on Figure 4.29. Click start in figure 4.29 will lead you to figure 4.30. It will show product
category, which is playtime, bathing, feeding, travel and apparel. If click playtime button
product category will lead you to figure 4.31.
Figure 4.29: Customer home
Figure 4.30: Customer home (product category)
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4.4.2.5 Virtual Reality Store Main Menu
This interface will be display after customer click playtime button product category.
Figure 4.31 show playtime product section in Anakku baby store. The main button is info,
sound, store section choice and plan. Click info button will display the info in figure 4.32,
sound button to mute and unmute sound and click plan button will display figure 3.33. All
of the product available to click for order. As an example click nasal aspirator product in
Figure 4.34.
Figure 4.31: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu
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Figure 4.32: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (info)
Figure 4.33: Virtual Reality Store Main Menu (plan)
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4.4.2.6 Product order
This page will display selected product information in figure 4.34 and customer can
make an order in this page. Customer need to insert quantity of selected product and click
on “Add to Cart” button as shown on figure 4.35. They need to click on button “My cart”
on the top page to view their order. The item order will be listed on shopping cart as shown
on figure 4.36. Customer can continue select crisp by click “Continue shopping?” and if
has complete, click on button “Checkout”. The order will be listed on order list.
Figure 4.35: Add to cart
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4.4.2.7 Shopping cart
This page will display item order list on shopping cart as shown on figure 4.36.
Customer can continue order product by click “Continue shopping?” and if has complete,
click on button “Checkout”. The order will be listed on order list. In this process, there are
4 main button which is My Cart, Shipping Address, Payment and Status. Click “Checkout”
will lead to figure 3.7.
Figure 4.36: My cart
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4.4.2.8 Shipping address
This page will display shipping address form which is includes first name, last
name, address, city, country, province, postal code and phone number. Click “Next” will
lead to figure 3.8.
Figure 4.37: Shipping address (form)
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4.4.2.9 Payment
This page will display payment page that need customer to upload payment receipt
as a proof payment. Then will be check by admin. Click confirm will lead you to figure
3.9.
Figure 4.38: Payment
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4.4.2.10 Order Status
This page will display order status page and tracking number. Customer can
continue shopping by click on “Continue Shopping” button.
Figure 4.39: Order status
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4.4.2.11 Search Product
This page will allow customer to search for any product. Click “Search” will show
the list of search result.
Figure 4.40: Search product
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4.5 Chapter Summary
This chapter ensures that the system is developed according to the requirement, the
framework (system modelling) and design. Each module involves in Profit Prediction for
Baby Product Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior is described in the data flow. The
system developed must follow closely the DFD and ERD designed in the earlier phases.
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CHAPTER 5
TESTING AND RESULT
5.1 Introduction
In order to ensure the system developed according to the functional requirement
state by the user and fulfilled the main objective, the system testing is done throughout the
implementation process. Testing is conducted to uncover error that is inadvertently during
the coding phase. This is constructed by testing individual program component to get the
intended result from the system developed. The process involve in the system testing are
unit testing and environmental testing. This chapter outlines the steps necessary to verify if
the system is correctly done and performs to the required specifications. The system is also
being tested using two widely test methods, which is are white box testing and black box
testing.
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5.2 Testing Analysis
The system is tested using two techniques of software testing which are a black box
testing and white box testing after the complete implementation. The testing is must in order
to get the respective input and output for each process involve in this system.
5.2.1 Black Box Testing
The module involves in this testing are:
1) Login
2) Manage Product
3) Customer Order
5.2.2 White Box Testing
The module involves in this testing is Forecast sales and profit.
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5.3 Test Cases
A test case is a set of conditions or variables under which a tester will determine
whether a system under test satisfies requirements or works correctly. The process of
developing test cases also helps find the problems in the requirement or design of an
application. The table below shows the test cases for several processes of Profit Prediction
for Baby Products Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior.
5.3.1 Login
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Go to login page
Preview page loaded Pass
2 Enter the following
details
Username:
syaza@gmail.com
Password: syaza124
Pass
3 Click login button Message “Wrong email and
password!”
Pass
4 Re-enter the correct
username and
password
Login page Pass
Table 5.1: Test Case Fail Login
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Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Go to login page
Preview page loaded Pass
2 Enter the following
details
Username:
syaza@gmail.com
Password: syaza124
Pass
3 Click login button
Login successful
Display Admin Module Pass
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Go to login page
Preview page loaded Pass
2 Enter the following
details
Username:
syaza@gmail.com
Password: syaza124
Pass
3 Click login button
Login successful
Display Customer Module Pass
Table 5.2: Test Case Admin Success Login
Table 5.3: Test Case Customer Success Login
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5.3.2 Manage Product
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Click “Add Product”
Form to register new product
Pass
2 Enter the new
product details
Pass
3 Click “Save” button
Display fail or success
message
Pass
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Click “Update
Product”
Display list of crisp registered
Pass
2 Choose product to
be update and click
button “Update”
Form update product details Pass
3 Enter new updated
product details
Pass
4 Click “Save” button
Display fail or success
message
Pass
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Click “Delete
Product”
Display list of product Pass
2 Choose product to
delete and click
button “Delete”
Display fail or success
message
Pass
Table 5.4: Test Case Add Product
Table 5.5: Test Case Update Product
Table 5.6: Test Case Delete Product
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5.3.3 Manage Order
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Click on any
product on
Customer module.
Display product information Pass
2 Enter quantity and
click button “Add
to Cart”.
Pass
3 Click “My Cart”
Display list of customer
order
Pass
4 Click “Checkout”
button
Display fail or success
message
Pass
Table 5.7: Test Case Manage Order
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5.3.4 Forecast
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Click on “Forecast
Sales” on Admin
module.
Display list of product sales
for previous 5 months.
Display predicted quantity to
produce on the next month
Pass
Step Procedure Expected Result Pass / Fail
1 Click on “Forecast
Profit” on Admin
module.
Display list of product sales
profit for previous 5 months.
Display predicted profit on
the next month.
Pass
5.3 Chapter Summary
The implementation of coding and testing of the system is discussed in this chapter.
For creating the robust and well function system, all test cases must be tested carefully to
ensure the intended result. The main process and the flow of module are discussed. The
system functionally had been tested and evaluated.
Table 5.8: Test Case Forecast Sales
Table 5.9: Test Case Forecast Profit
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CHAPTER 6
RESULT AND CONCLUSION
6.1 Introduction
In this chapter, the finding in the project is discussed and concluded. The content
of this chapter is summarized of the result or the project contribution, the limitation of
this project and some suggestion for the future work.
6.2 Project Contribution
Profit Prediction for Baby Products Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior is
developed to help company to make a prediction and analysis on the upcoming stock
production. This system has been achieved the objectives and all scopes had been
fulfilled.
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The achievement of this project is outline below:
The systematic order system for customer to make product order.
This system will store past sales report that useful for company as reference.
It helps company in make a prediction on the future sales and profit.
6.3 Result Discussion
Generally, this project has been carried out and follow the objective that has been
stated in Chapter 1. The system helps the customer to make an order. This system also
assists the company to make analysis for future sales and help company to make a good
business planning based on forecast result. This project providing the function to predict
stock production that can help reducing the excessive production using Least Square
Method Techniques.
6.4 Project Constraints and Limitation
There are several problems and limitation while developing this project. These are
the problems and limitations in conducting the study are:
Lack of reference on existing system.
This system only allow ordering and purchasing but does not include stock
inventory.
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6.5 Future Work
There are few suggestions that can be made to upgrade the system to be more efficient in
future work. The suggestions are as below:
Able to view the profit for the next year.
Available on mobile application.
6.6 Conclusion
Profit Prediction for Baby Products Based on Consumers’ Purchasing Behavior
focus on facilitate customers to make reservations and facilitate management to manage
baby product stocks effectively. The suitable approach is implemented in this system which
is Least Square Method which is a way to generate profit forecasts in the future. Forecasting
sales and profits is essential to planning for business success. The result for this project is
enable to estimate future business performance based on the actual profits from prior
periods and enables the baby shop owner to modify the operation of the business on a timely
basis. This system only focus on calculation prediction for next month. So, for the future
work will add calculation prediction for the next year. This system also displaying the
analysis with graph. So user will see the flow of their sale and profit by month. So, this
project allows the business to avoid losses or major financial problems should some future
results from operations not conform with reasonable expectations.
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REFERENCES
[1] CLAUDIMAR PEREIRA DA VEIGA, C. R. (2014). Demand forecasting in food
retail: a comparison between the Holt-Winters and ARIMA models. WSEAS
TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS.
[2] Kumar, R and Mahto, D 2013, ‘A case study: Application of Proper
Forecasting Technique in Juice Production’, Global Journal of Researches in
Engineering, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1-6.
[3] Sonia Akhter**, M. A. (September 2016). Selection of a Forecasting Technique for
Beverage Production: A Case Study. World Journal of Social Sciences, 148 – 159.
[4] Akhter, S., Rahman, M. A., Koushik, M. R. P., & Hossain, M. M. (2016). Selection of
a Forecasting Technique for Beverage Production: A Case Study. World, 6(3), 148-159.
[5] Barbosa, N de P, Christo, E da S and Costa, KA 2015, ‘Demand Forecasting for
Production Planning in a Food Company’, ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied
Sciences, vol. 10, no. 16, pp. 7137-7141.
[6] Medhora, N. (n.d.). Kopywriting Kourse. Retrieved from Gross Profit Calculator:
https://kopywritingkourse.com/gross-profit-calculator/
[7] Bizmove Small Business Guides. (n.d.). Retrieved from Sales and Profit Forecasting
Methods: https://www.bizmove.com/finance/m3b4.htm
[8] smallbusiness.chron.com. (n.d.). Retrieved from How to Calculate Using the Gross
Profit Method: https://smallbusiness.chron.com/calculate-using-gross-profit-method-
10591.html
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Appendix 1
Task
Week
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1.0 Project Introduction Phase
1.1 Title Proposal
1.2 Proposal Writing (Introduction)
1.2.1 Background
1.2.2 Problem statement
1.2.1 Objectives
1.2.3 Scope
1.2.4 Limitation of work
1.2.5 Expected results
1.2.6 Activities and Milestones
1.2.7 Submission and Correction
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Related Technique
2.2 System Technique
2.3 Submission and Correction
3.0 Design and Specification Phase
3.1 Project Methodology
3.2 Software and Hardware
3.3 Framework
3.4 Context Diagram
3.5 Dataflow Diagram
3.6 Entity Relationship Diagram
3.7 Data Dictionary
3.8 Submission and Correction