Profile of Jamaica in the Context of Vulnerability

“Setting the Stage”

The Issue of Vulnerability

In the 1980s-1990s Caribbean countries (among others) lobbied extensively and successfully for a global platform within which the special and unique characteristics which shape, define and challenge their development could be discussed.

Lobby resulted in global summit and formulation of the SIDS POA in 1994

The issue of “vulnerability” is a key consideration in defining the special status of SIDS

For SIDS, vulnerability is all encompassing

• Economic

• Ecological

• Social

1. ECONOMIC

Highly “open” economies - susceptible to external “shocks”

• e.g.: changes in prices of primary commodities - bauxite, citrus, bananas and sugar produce immediate impact on national economic future

1. ECONOMIC

Vulnerability to changes in global trade regimes:

•Trade liberalization - resulting in lowering of taxes on trade - some Caribbean countries derived 60%+ of government revenue from taxes on trade resulting in serious dislocation

1. ECONOMIC

Development of Regional Trading Blocks

e.g., Jamaica - Impact of NAFTA (loss of jobs to Mexico)

Declining manufacturing sector:

• 1990 - 20% GDP

• 2000 - 15% GDP

1. ECONOMIC

Changes in global trading has resulted in:

• Loss of preferential access for bananas

• New dispensation - sugar and rum

1. ECONOMIC

• Serious problems: WI bananas

• St Kitts/Nevis: divestment from sugar

1. ECONOMIC

Classification as “high risk”

high cost of insurance/reinsurance

negative impact on investment &

production costs

1. ECONOMICother characteristics

• Undiversified economic structure

• Small domestic markets

• Constraints on institutional capacity

2. ECOLOGICAL

• Fragility of natural resource base

• Vulnerability to sea-level rise

• Susceptibility to natural disasters

Hurricanes & Tropical Storms1980-1989

3. SOCIAL

• High rates of migration “brain drain” effect

• High rates of natural increase pressure on State to provide basic services

• Human resource constraints required skills

Most of these vulnerabilities are

characteristic of Jamaica

Vulnerability Profile of Jamaica

1. ECONOMIC

Dependence on:(Year 2000)

• Manufacturing - 15.8% • Financial services - 14.9% • Tourism - 9.2%• Mining - 9.1%• Agriculture - 7.1%

(sugar & bananas)

1. ECONOMIC

(Relatively) Small population

•Small domestic markets

•Limited capacity to mobilize domestic savings

2. ECOLOGICAL

Susceptible to natural disasters

• Hurricane Allen, 1980 - category 4-5

• Hurricane Gilbert, 1988 - category 4-5

2. ECOLOGICAL

• Low-lying coast - vulnerable to storm surge - potential for extensive coastal damage

• Vulnerability of tourism infrastructure to storm surge

Hurricane Gilbert Damages

• Domestic crops J$ 769.0 million• Roads $ 39.0 million• Education $ 388.0 million• Housing (44% of stock) $ 2.0 billion• Tourism (hotels damaged) 86.0%• Deaths 45

Also Mainly Coastal Geographic Concentration

Negril, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Port Antonio

21.5%

35.3%

2.5%

28.5%

10.5%

Kingston

2.2%

South Coast

2. ECOLOGICAL

• Modeling has shown that a category 5 storm would generate a 3-4 meter storm surge

• Extensive inland inundation

potential

Photo No. 1 of Montego Bay

Photo No. 2 of Montego Bay

2. ECOLOGICAL

• Extensive damages during

Hurricane Gilbert to all

island

3. SOCIAL

Location of settlements in vulnerable areas:

•Coast

•Hilly/mountainous areas

•Flood plains (problem for Hurricane Michelle)

Jamaica 1970-1998Storm Related Fatalities

Year Total Deaths: by Floods by Windstorms

1990-1998 8 8 0

1980-1989 172 110 62

1970-1979 91 85 6

Source: Em-Dat

Extensive out-

migration of persons

at all levels of

income

3. SOCIAL

3. SOCIAL

High rates of natural increase

pressure on State for essential services

3. SOCIAL

• Unemployment

• Crime

Natural disasters serve to underscore a

country’s peculiar vulnerabilities

Quantum of costs!

Gilbert 1998:

49 people killed800,000 affected

200,000 homelessDirect damage - US$956 million

Indirect damage - US$230 millionTotal losses > 65% GDP

The Legacy of Michelle

Area of disturbed weather, 28 October 2001

Institutional/Operational Constraints

• Lack of applied methodology

• Difficulties with organizational structure - problems of coordination

Areas of Worse Damage

• Spanish River Watershed• Swift River Watershed

Damages:

• Flooding

• Landslides

• Debris flow

Damages

• Infrastructure: Access roads to bridges Secondary roads

• Bridges: Spanish River

Swift River

Westmoreland River

• Affected population: 5 lives lost40,000 affected (lost

electricity)

4,000 immediately affected

800 evacuated

Damages … Continued

• Community services: Schools, health clinics, community centers

• Houses: 500 completely destroyed

• Agriculture: 1911 ha crops (coffee, bananas)

Michelle Underscored Weaknesses in:

P rep ared n ess fo r evacu a tion an d sh e lte rin g

W atersh ed m an ag em en t

P h ys ica l p lan n in g /lan d u se p lan n in g

M eth od o log y fo r coord in a tion

D ata g a th erin g p ro toco ls fo r assess in g d isas te rs im p ac ts

Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability due to Man-made Impacts

Hurricane Michelle

Heavy rains

Steep slopes

Highly erodable soils

Geological faults

Intervention by man

Landslides Flooding

Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability

due to Man-made Impacts

Intervention by ManRivers

Clearing of river banks

Development or river beds

Animal grazing in gullies

Mining gravel and sand in beds

Exacerbation of flooding

Land

Improper land use

Deforestation (slopes)

Use of fire to clear lands

Clearing of steep slopes

Landslides

Problems for Communities & Infrastructure losses

Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow

Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow

Damage to Infrastructure

Michelle underscored:

Poor Land Use Planning:Poor Settlement Strategy

Historical evidence that this phenomena had occurred several times before

18371937194019432001

• Cutting of trees for charcoal• Use of fire to clear land• Livestock grazing in river bed• Development of flood plains

Michelle also Underscored Destructive Cultural Practices:

Contributed to Impacts

Michele emphasized the economic dependence of communities on agriculture

• Loss of coffee

• Loss of bananas

• Livestock losses

Michelle underscored existing vulnerabilities and points to the need for long term investments in:

•Watershed management

•Land use planning

Lessons Learnt in Post-Michelle

Reconstruction process

must rebuild while

reducing vulnerability

Implications for several issues, including:

Land use

Cultural practices

Settlement strategy

Objectives of this workshop are:

To provide exposure in the application of the ECLAC Methodology in accessing the effects of disasters

Objectives

Point the way to policy changes which can significantly reduce Jamaica's vulnerabilities to natural disasters over time.

United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean

Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean

P. O. Box 1113, Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago

Tel: 868-623-5595; Fax: 868-623-8485; e-mail: registry@eclacpos.org

April 2002