Post on 02-Apr-2015
Prof. Alex `Sandy’ Pentland
MIT
Human Dynamics Labhttp://hd.media.mit.edu
Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland
Complexity is simplelook at the generating process, not the leaves
Big Data, Small Problemsuse big data to discover parameters and boundaries
Stone Soup & Big Datapooling data with users to benefit everyone
Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved
Corporate Information Flow
Complex!
Copyright alex pentland 2010, all rights reserved
Nature 1/09
Big Data Says that Humans are Really Pretty Simple
Nature, 1/09`People have been studying this for a long time, but
Alex is raising it up to another level.’
Two MindsNobel Prize winners Kahneman and Simon:
Humans have two minds
Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved
FastParallelAutomaticAssociative
SlowSerialControlledRule-based
Habitual (System 1)
Attentive (system 2)
Conceptual RepresentationsPast, Present, FutureCan be evoked by languageC
onte
nt
Pro
cess
The Sociometric Badge captures interactions with others
Proximity Location Face-to-face interactions Social signals NOT words
Technology Review Top 10 Emerging
Technologies
Sociometric Solutions
Organizations for Humans
Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved
Science, 9/2010
204 groups, size 2 – 5 participants
Three Factors: 1. Total Number of contributions 2. Equality of contribution rate 3. Amount of (backchannel) signaling
Group Performance Governed by
Ancient Patterns
Copyright alex pentland 2011
BAC Call Center
Average Call Handle TimeCohe
sion
of F
ace-
to-F
ace
Net
wor
k
Productivity fromto simple patterns
Waber, Olguin, Pentland
$15M / year savings…..Just by changingcoffee breaks
Creativity: discovery and
integration Creative groups change between star-shaped network
(exploration) and cohesive network (integration)
…like bees
89% accurate identification of `top creative days’ by socialization and activity measurements (sociometric badge)
Copyright 2011 Alex Pentland Tripathi, Burleson, Gloor, Pentland
Copyright alex pentland 2011 Olguin, Waber, Kim, Gloor, Pentland
Simple Patterns Account for40% to 60% of Performance
Harvard Business Review: Breakthrough Idea of the Year
Out In The Wild
Complex!
Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland
Big Data Says that Humans Are Really Pretty Simple
Copyright Alex Pentland, 2011
Decisions made by Exposure not friends, information, or arguments
Accounts for 75% – 85% of variance
Me (Individual 1)
Democrat, but 0.50 to switch to Republican
100% DemocraticIndividual 2
100% RepublicanIndividual 3
Social Influence: Like Immune System
Pan, Altshuler, Pentland
14
Using sensors in smart phones to obtain different type of social networks.
Call Network
Proximity Network
Friendship Network
Co-location Network
Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved
FunF Open Source Sensing http://funf.media.mit.edu
Aharony, Pan, Pentland
Many networks influence conscious decisions
Pan, Aharony, PentlandCopyright alex pentland, 2011
Predicting What You Will Buy
Big Data and Tribes
Copyright alex pentland 2011
The Next Google …cover Newsweek
Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland
Patterns of BuyingThe Next Google … cover Newsweek
iPhoneblackberry
Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland
Patterns of HealthThe Next Google … cover Newsweek
HIV
diabetes
Me (Individual 1)
Democrat, but 0.50 to switch to Republican
100% DemocraticIndividual 2
100% RepublicanIndividual 3
Shaping Behavior: Social Influence
Gompertz function, like immune system Pan, Altshuler, Pentland
Copyright alex pentland 2011
Mani, Rahwan, Pentland
Twice as efficient as standard incentive mechanisms
Leveraging Social Influence
PredictedProportionOf PopulationChangingBehavior
Quantitative Shapingvalidated on stock purchases, app downloads
Treatment Cost
Altshuler, Pan, Pentland
Personal Data & Privacy
“Personal data is the new oil of the internet and the new currency of the digital world.”
—Meglena KunevaEuropean Consumer Commissioner
Stone Soup & Big Data
The Evolution of A New Consensus
Copyright 2011 Alex Pentland
FTC, Commerce, White House, EU,…Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Qualcomm…Verizon, ATT, FT, BT, Bharti……Mastercharge, Equifax, …ACLU, OpenID,Infocard,….Harvard Law, MIT Media Lab, …
My Data
Personal Data Stores
Bank DataFinancialData
Bank DataBank Data
Bank Data
Mobility andCall Data
Legal Data
MedicalData
Trust
Trust
Trust
Securely make offersSecurely make offersto individualsto individuals
PersonalDataStore
PersonalDataStore
PersonalDataStore
PersonalDataStore
PersonalDataStore
PersonalDataStore
OIX, NSTIC, EUUK: mydataVets: blue buttonCopyright alex pentland 2011
Privacy Market
USE CASE 1
USE CASE 1 CONTINUED
`Optimal’ Anonymous Market Discovery:AKA Instant Groupon
USE CASE 2
40th Anniversary of the Internet Grand Challenge
Pickard, Pan, Rahwan,Cebrian,Madan,Crane,Pentland
The Bottom Line
Big Data and Simple Behavior Models
can make the complex simple
We are moving to a data-driven world,
make sure you secure the data you need!
Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved
Copyright alex pentland 2011
Forbes, 8/10, Mining Human Behavior
http://media.mit.edu/~pentland
http://idcubed.org
pentland@mit.edu