Post on 21-Jan-2016
PRIMES v3 (draft) comparison
25th May 2007 projections expert panel meeting
Melanie Hobson
Overview of presentation
• Comparison of how the new draft PRIMES (v3) energy forecasts for the UK compare with the UK’s own forecasts
• Aim is to encourage Countries to carry out their own comparisons. • Important that Countries are happy with the results• UK’s energy forecasts – current status
Concerns
• Power station sector• Overall trends• Domestic• Transport• Industry
Power stations - coal
Actual and projected coal consumption by power stations
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MT
OE coal (UK)
coal (primes)
Power stations – natural gas
Actual and projected natural gas consumption by power stations
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MT
OE natural gas (UK)
natural gas (primes)
Domestic sector - coal
Actual and projected coal consumption in the domestic sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
KT
OE
UK
Primes
Industrial sector - gas
Actual and projected gas consumption in the industrial sector
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
KT
OE
UK
Primes
Transport sector
Actual and projected diesel and gasoline consumption
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
KT
OE
diesel oil (UK)
diesel oil (primes)
gasoline (UK)
gasoline (primes)
Conclusions
• Encourage Countries to compare their own energy forecasts with the new version of PRIMES.
• That the methodology is obtained for converting between the Eurostat data and data in PRIMES
• That more of a detailed breakdown by sector is provided for PRIMES by fuel type – for example transport.