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Power & Renewables: Power & Renewables: context, promise and context, promise and
policy policy AIBC 2010AIBC 2010
Session on Power and RenewablesSession on Power and Renewables Energy, Resources and Associated Energy, Resources and Associated
Infrastructure Conference Infrastructure Conference 11 June, 201011 June, 2010
Ligia NoronhaLigia NoronhaDirectorDirector
Resources, Regulation & Global SecurityResources, Regulation & Global SecurityTERI, IndiaTERI, India
OutlineOutlineI.I. The ContextThe Context
II.II. The potential for renewable powerThe potential for renewable power
III.III. Policy Innovations to address energy Policy Innovations to address energy challenges and create markets for challenges and create markets for renewable powerrenewable power
IV.IV. RE business and research opportunities RE business and research opportunities
I I The Context The Context
Key Challenges Key Challenges Low accessLow access: Over 500 million without : Over 500 million without
electricity and 700 million dependent on electricity and 700 million dependent on traditional fuels; traditional fuels; a per capita annual a per capita annual consumption of 650 units consumption of 650 units
High electricity shortagesHigh electricity shortages: estimated at : estimated at nearly 10% in energy terms and over 13 % in nearly 10% in energy terms and over 13 % in peak demand peak demand
Humungous projected energy resource Humungous projected energy resource needs needs to deliver 8% growthto deliver 8% growth
High dependence on fossil fuels and High dependence on fossil fuels and importsimports: 70: 70% of its oil is imported; 11% of its % of its oil is imported; 11% of its coal and 17% of its natural gas coal and 17% of its natural gas
Carbon concerns: Carbon concerns: an additional constraintan additional constraint
IEP, 2006
( figures In brackets, mtoe in 2002)
India’s Energy Resource India’s Energy Resource NeedsNeeds
2002-2031/32 2002-2031/32 (for 8% growth p.a)(for 8% growth p.a)Range of Imports in Range of Imports in
20312031
Fossil fuel imports: Fossil fuel imports: 387-1010 Mtoe; 387-1010 Mtoe; (Import dependency: (Import dependency: 29-59%)29-59%)
Coal imports : 72-462 Coal imports : 72-462 mtoe; (mtoe; (Import Import dependency:11-45%)dependency:11-45%)
Oil import: 315-451 Oil import: 315-451 MT;MT;(Import dependency: 90-(Import dependency: 90-
93%)93%) Natural Gas import: Natural Gas import:
0-97 Mtoe0-97 Mtoe(Import dependency: 0-(Import dependency: 0-
49%)49%)
Projections to 2031Projections to 2031
Coal – double Coal – double (300 )(300 )
Gas – 4 times (29 )Gas – 4 times (29 ) Oil –2.3 Oil –2.3
times(148)times(148) Hydro – 3.6 times Hydro – 3.6 times
(13)(13) Nuclear - 5.8 Nuclear - 5.8
times (24)times (24)
Electricity fuel mixElectricity fuel mix
71%
7,231 MW
29%
2,944 MW
Other REWind
Total installed capacity as on 31.3.2009 is 148 GW
78%
39,222 MW
90%
9,755 MW
10%1,141 MW
Other REWind
RES34%
Nuclear3%
Gas10%
Diesel1%
Coal52%
RES Gas Nuclear Diesel Coal
10,897 MW23%
Hydro
Renewable Power in Renewable Power in India, 2010India, 2010
Off Grid/Distributed Renewable Power (MW/MWeq)
57%30%
12% 1%0%
Biomass Power /Cogen.(non-bagasse)Biomass Gasifier
Waste-to- Energy
Solar PV PowerPlants
Aero-Generators/HybridSystems
Source MNRE as on 31.3.2010
Total : 404.56 MW/MWeq
Total: 16817.29 MW
5%
70%
16%
8%1%
0%
Grid Connected Renewable Power, 2010
Biomass Power
Wind Power
Small Hydro Power
Cogeneration-bagasse
Waste to Energy
Solar Power
Key policy directions and Key policy directions and challengeschallenges
All available energy sources to be used; All available energy sources to be used; special focus on renewable energy, energy special focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency and DSM, and nuclear powerefficiency and DSM, and nuclear power
The power sector is seen as best placed to The power sector is seen as best placed to make the transition to renewable energy make the transition to renewable energy technologies, given that 80% of investments technologies, given that 80% of investments to 2031 are yet to cometo 2031 are yet to come
Markets have been liberalized; prices to be Markets have been liberalized; prices to be market determined; efficiency across the market determined; efficiency across the value change, subsidies to be value change, subsidies to be targetedtargeted
Key challenges: time to make the transitions Key challenges: time to make the transitions and costsand costs
II The Potential for II The Potential for Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy
Electricity Capacity in best Electricity Capacity in best case scenario (2031/32)case scenario (2031/32)
Source: Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission 2006Source: Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission 2006
The Potential: Solar The Potential: Solar radiation over Indiaradiation over India
Most parts receive 4-Most parts receive 4-7 kWh/sqm/d7 kWh/sqm/d
Incidence: 5000 Incidence: 5000 trillion kWh/year trillion kWh/year energyenergy
Both solar thermal Both solar thermal and solar PV can and solar PV can be harnessedbe harnessed
Key Constraints: Key Constraints: Land, storage, high Land, storage, high
costcost
Wind resources in IndiaWind resources in India
Potential : 45,000 Potential : 45,000 MWMW
The success story so The success story so farfar 70% of current grid 70% of current grid
connected RE (non connected RE (non hydro) is from wind hydro) is from wind (>10GW)(>10GW)
Indian companies Indian companies are already globalare already global
Has achieved grid Has achieved grid parity in costs parity in costs
Bio-energyBio-energy Large biomass resource baseLarge biomass resource base
> 600 million tonnes> 600 million tonnes Technologies of interestTechnologies of interest
Liquid fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel)Liquid fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel) Gaseous fuels (producer gas, bio gas)Gaseous fuels (producer gas, bio gas) Electricity (small-scale using Electricity (small-scale using
gasification, large-scale using steam gasification, large-scale using steam route)route)
Social benefitsSocial benefits Employment in rural areasEmployment in rural areas Modern energy services to rural Modern energy services to rural
populationpopulation Potential to “green” waste landsPotential to “green” waste lands
III Policy III Policy InnovationsInnovations
Securing conventional Securing conventional energy resourcesenergy resources
Overseas investments: Balancing Overseas investments: Balancing interests and principlesinterests and principles
Enlarging the engagement with the Enlarging the engagement with the near and expanded neighbourhood:near and expanded neighbourhood: Increased energy ties: West Asia, Increased energy ties: West Asia, Central Asia, Australia , SAsiaCentral Asia, Australia , SAsia
Sourcing oil and coal from Africa: Sourcing oil and coal from Africa: building on long term relationsbuilding on long term relations
Accessing global civil nuclear Accessing global civil nuclear markets: Collaboration with the markets: Collaboration with the USA and emerging ties post the USA and emerging ties post the NSG waiverNSG waiver
Managing the hyphenation with Managing the hyphenation with China: Risks and opportunitiesChina: Risks and opportunities
Renewable energy sector Renewable energy sector development in India (the development in India (the
policy story)policy story)1970s
1980s
1990s2000 Onwards
R&D programs initiated
Focus on developing RE technologies and products
Demonstration projects
Fiscal & financial incentives introduced (subsidy, tax incentives, etc)
Increased role of Public Sector Undertakings
Infrastructure development
More emphasis on fiscal incentives
Increased Private Sector Participation
EA 2003, NEP 2005, NTP 2006
Quota/Obligation system introduced
Preferential tariffs for RE
Integrated Energy Policy 2006
National Biofuels Policy
NAPCC
NSMSource: S Garud
WIND HYDRO
GRID
Stand-alone Solar Systems
1980
Mini HydroBiomass
Wind +
Solar
Solar Mini Grid
1990 2008
Smart Mini Grid
Trends in RET Systems innovations in India
Village Village systemsystemss
IntegratiIntegrationon
National Solar MissionNational Solar MissionTo sharply upscale grid connected solar To sharply upscale grid connected solar
power:power: 3 phases: 1000 MW -2013; 10000 MW-3 phases: 1000 MW -2013; 10000 MW-
2017; 20000 MW-20222017; 20000 MW-2022 To create favorable conditions for solar To create favorable conditions for solar
manufacturing capabilitymanufacturing capability To support off grid applications – 1000 MW To support off grid applications – 1000 MW
by 2017; 2000 MW-2022by 2017; 2000 MW-2022 To support this To support this
: Solar PO, REC, dedicated buyer-NVVN, fiscal : Solar PO, REC, dedicated buyer-NVVN, fiscal incentives, R & D incentives, R & D
IV RE business and IV RE business and research opportunities & research opportunities &
partnerships partnerships Well established legal system and Well established legal system and
financial marketsfinancial markets Large technically qualified Large technically qualified
workforce workforce Enabling policy regimeEnabling policy regime Many market opportunitiesMany market opportunities
Sustainable BuildingsSustainable Buildings Distributed GenerationDistributed Generation SMEsSMEs
Potential Indian Partners Potential Indian Partners (see (see www.mnre.gov.in)www.mnre.gov.in)
ConclusionConclusionIndia has a rapidly growing power India has a rapidly growing power
sector with a vibrant renewable sector with a vibrant renewable energy marketenergy market
− Australia already exports coking and thermal Australia already exports coking and thermal coal; LNG; will only increase over time.coal; LNG; will only increase over time.
− RE beckonsRE beckons− Estimated total investments in renewable Estimated total investments in renewable
energy projects estimated to be > US$ 10 energy projects estimated to be > US$ 10 billion in next 3-5 years.billion in next 3-5 years.
− Many BOP opportunities available through Many BOP opportunities available through decentralized systemsdecentralized systems
− Solar power costs are expected to fall to Solar power costs are expected to fall to grid parity by 2022; and to coal thermal grid parity by 2022; and to coal thermal power parity by 2030 through aggressive power parity by 2030 through aggressive supportive policiessupportive policies
− Pro investor and R & D friendly policy Pro investor and R & D friendly policy regimes in placeregimes in place
Thank you Thank you