POTENTIAL AREA FOR SOLAR ENERGY GENERATOR AND ITS BENEFIT TO

CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) IN INDONESIA

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.Head of Meteorology Department, ITB

OUTLINE

• Introduction: Global Climate & Indonesia• Projection of Temperature Change in Indonesia• Projection of Global CO2 Emission • Projection of CO2 Emission in Indonesia• Map of Potential Area for Renewable Energy in

Indonesia• Projection of Solar Energy Development in

Indonesia• East Java for Potential Area of Solar Energy• Projection of CDM value from Solar Energy

Development

Global Climate

Human activities have affect global climate change.

Climate change increases mean temperature in eart surface caused of greenhouse gas, including: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCS, PFCS, dan SF6.

Greenhouse gas are usually result of fossil energy, forest fire, and agricultural activities.

Indonesia

This country is the forth biggest population, with amount of people about 215 million (2003), tropical and maritim area.

Indonesia has reserve of coal, natural gas, and oil that is very significant.

As main contibutor for greenhouse emission from energy sector.

Indonesia has ratified Kyoto Protocol, 19th October 2004.

PROJECTION OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE

IN INDONESIA

Year = 2000

Source: Susandi, 2006

oC

Year = 2010 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2020 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2040 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2050 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2060 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2070 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2080 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2090 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2100 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2100 oC

Source: Susandi, 2006

Change of Mean TemperatureYear = 2100

Forest FireoC

LandslideStorm

El-Nino & La-NinaSource: Susandi, 2006

(Source : Brasseur et al., 1999)

CO2 Emission as Result of Fossil Energy and Landuse Change

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tahun

Em

isi C

O2

(Gt/t

ah

un

)

Source: Susandi, 2007

Year

CO

2 E

mis

sion

(G

t/ye

ar)

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tahun

Em

isi C

O2

(M

t/ta

hu

n)

dasar

Year

CO

2 E

mis

sion

(G

t/ye

ar)

Base

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA

Source: Susandi, 2007

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tahun

Em

isi C

O2

(M

t/ta

hu

n)

dasar

Annex I

Year

CO

2 E

mis

sion

(G

t/ye

ar)

Base

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA

Source: Susandi, 2007

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tahun

Em

isi C

O2

(M

t/ta

hu

n)

dasar

mitigasi

Annex I

Year

CO

2 E

mis

sion

(G

t/ye

ar)

Base

Mitigation

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA

Source: Susandi, 2007

SOLAR ENERGY

Potency of Solar Energy in Indonesia

Intensity of Solar Radiation in Indonesia reach to 4.8 kWh/m2/day

Energy Planted = 8 MW

Flux of Mean Solar Radiation in 1976 to 2005 (W/m2)

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

W/m2

= Wind Energy

= Solar Energy

= Biofull Energy

= Geothermal Energy

= Coal Energy

Map of Potential Area for Renewable Energy in Indonesia

Source: Susandi, 2008

Projection of Solar Energy Development in Indonesia

Source: Susandi, 2008

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Tahun

MW

Year

SMARTS MODEL FOR ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION

Model SMARTS

Integration of Solar Radiation

Climate Parameters

Solar Radiation in Wavelength Spectrum

Spatial Map of Solar Radiation

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedaw ung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuw angi

LONGITUDE

January

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

February

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

March

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

April

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

May

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

June

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

July

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedaw ung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuw angi

LONGITUDE

August

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

September

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

October

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

November

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2

112 112.5 113 113.5 114

-8

-7.5

-7

Tretes

Pasuruan

Kedawung

JatirotoW ringin anom

Banyuwangi

LONGITUDE

December

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

MERGE: an Integrated Assessment Model(Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies)

http://www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE/

(Manne et al., Susandi, 2004)

Region di MERGE 4.3

Negara Non-Annex I

1. United States 6. China2. Western Europe 7. India3. Japan 8. MOPEC

(Mexico+OPEC)4. CANZ (Canada,

Australia, New Zealand)9. ROW (rest of the

world)5. EEFSU (Eastern Europe,

Former Soviet Union)10. Indonesia

Negara Annex I

CO2 Reduction from Fossil Substituted by Solar Energy

0

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

MtC

O2

pe

r ye

ar

Substitution of Gas

Substitution of Oil

Substitution of Coal

Source: Susandi, 2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Pric

e of

CO2

($/to

n)

Projection of CO2 Price

Source: Susandi, 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

$U

S p

er

yea

r

*10

6

from Gas

from Oil

from Coal

Incoming from CO2 Substitution by Solar Energy

Source: Susandi, 2008

thank you www.armisusandi.co

m

armi@geoph.itb.ac.id