Post on 14-Jan-2022
Election 2020 Timeline
Source: NCSL
Dec. 8: Electoral college deadline
for resolving election disputes
(3 U.S.C. § 5)
Nov. 9: Senatereturns
Dec. 14: Electors from each state
meet and cast their ballots for president and vice president
Nov. 16: House returns
Dec. 23: Deadline for the receipt of electors’ ballots
Dec. 18: Final scheduled
congressional session
Jan. 6: U.S. Congress meets in joint session to count electoral votes
Jan. 20: Inauguration Day
Dec. 11: Congressional
appropriations expire
Nov. 18 & 19: House holds leadership
elections
Nov. 12 – 21 and Nov. 29 – Dec. 5: House new
member orientation
Record Voter Turnout
Even with votes still left to tally, 2020 is on track to be the highest voter turnout in over a century.
Source: WP
60.1%2016
61.6%2008
so far 62.5%2020 66.5% projected
63.8%1960
65.7%1908
51.7%1996
58.6%2012
60.1%2004
54.2%2000
Share of voting-eligible population
The Most Expensive Election
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
Apr
2017
Jul
2017
Oct
2017
Dec
2017
Apr
2018
Jul
2018
Oct
2018
Dec
2018
Apr
2019
Jul
2019
Oct
2019
Dec
2019
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
2020 Presidential Candidates Cash on Hand
Trump Biden
Source: FEC : NPR : Bloomberg
In the week leading up to the election, pro-Biden groups outspent pro-Trump groups by $27.5 million.
$67 million
$39.5 millionPro-Trump Groups
Pro-Biden Groups
Raised
$1.57 billionRaisedDonald Trump and RNC Spent
Cash$1.49 billion
$117 million
$1.51 billionJoe Biden and DNC Spent $1.29 billion
$239 millionCash
Raised
Democratic Senate Candidates Outpaced GOP Spending
With few exceptions, Democratic challengers far outpaced Republican incumbents in terms of spending per vote.
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Tilli
s
Cu
nn
ing
ha
m
North Carolina
Ern
st
Gre
en
fie
ld
Iowa
Gra
ha
m
Ha
rris
on
South Carolina
Da
ine
s
Bu
lloc
k
Montana
Co
llin
s
Gid
eo
n
Maine
Mc
Gra
th
KentuckyM
cC
on
ne
ll
Pe
rdu
e
Oss
off
Arizona
Loe
ffle
r
Wa
rno
ck
Georgia 1
**
*Won plurality of votes,
advanced to runoff
Rep.
Dem.
Winner
Dollars Spent Per Vote
Georgia 2
Mc
Sa
lly
Ke
lly
Source: FEC : AP accessed 11/9/20
Trump
Biden
Composition of the Senate Remains Undecided
Georgia
Loeffler vs. Warnock
D: 50 seats for majority
R: 51 seats for majorityDemocratic Party Republican Party
48
Georgia
Perdue vs. Ossoff
The balance of the Senate will come down to runoffs in Georgia.
Runoff: January 5, 2021
50
Republicans Made Unexpected Gains in the House
Source: Cook Report : WP
Of the 13 Democrats who appear to have lost re-election last week, 12 were freshman members elected during the 2018 midterms.
After watching Democrats capture 40 seats in the 2018 midterms, Republicans’ potential net gain of ten seats in a presidential year may give them confidence in seeing a path to the House majority in 2022.
If these elections are certified as indicated above, the Democrats’ margin will shrink from 35 to 11 seats.
Competitive Democratic Races Lost Potentially Lost Democratic Races
California Rep. Gil Cisneros California Rep. TJ Cox
California Rep. Harley Rouda New York Rep. Anthony Brindisi
Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Florida Rep. Donna Shalala
Iowa Rep. Abby Finkenauer
Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson
New Mexico Rep. Xochitl Torres Small
New York Rep. Max Rose
Oklahoma Rep. Kendra Horn
South Carolina Rep. Joe Cunningham
Utah Rep. Ben McAdams
GOP Maintains Edge in State Capitals
23 27
2021
Governorships
Rep.Dem.
Republicans held, if not expanded, their control of state legislatures and governorships. Republicans will have a trifecta in 24 states in 2021 as states begin electoral redistricting.
Source: Multistate
39 59
State Legislative
Chamber Control
Rep.
Dem.
This marked the fewest legislative chamber switches since 1946.
Party Controls State Legislature and Governorship (Trifectas)
Rep. Trifecta
Rep. Trifecta Gain
Divided Government
Dem. Trifecta
‘Blue State’ Voters Reject Tax Hikes
Illinois “Fair” Tax
Proposal to amend the state’s constitution from a flat-rate income
tax to a graduated income tax.
DEFEATED
California Prop. 15
Proposal to remove property tax caps on commercial properties.
DEFEATED
Colorado Prop. 116
Proposal to reduce the state income tax flat rate by 0.08%.
PASSED
Source: Politico : Politico : Politico Accessed 11/9/20
Tax increase ballot measures failed in Democratically-controlled states.
Congressional Lame Duck Agenda
Government funding bill
Source: WP : Speaker
Leader McConnell and House Democrats have signaled a COVID stimulus package is
a priority for the lame duck.
1.
2.
3.
4.
NDAA
Tax Extenders (e.g. CFC Look-Through)
COVID Stimulus
Known Transition Team Key Players
Transition Co-Chairs• Ted Kaufman – Former Senator from Delaware
• Jeff Zients – Former acting White House budget director
• Yohannes Abraham – Former Obama White House aide
• Anita Dunn – Senior advisor
• Michelle Lujan Grisham – Governor of New Mexico
• Cedric Richmond – Congressman
Key Liaisons Between Administration and Capitol Hill• House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC)
• Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)
• Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE)
• Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA)
• Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX)
Source: NYT : Financial Times : H/T Ogilvy Government Relations
Biden has already assembled a team of 526 advisors to assist his transition.
Additional Key Biden Advisors
Long-Time Political Advisors• Steve Ricchetti
• Ron Klain
• Valerie Biden Owens
Former Staff• Evan Ryan
• Bruce Reed
• Ben Harris
Young Progressives• Symone Sanders
• Gautam Raghavan
State and local elected officials • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti
• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom
• Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms
Source: Ogilvy Government Relations
Biden’s Cabinet Options
Source: Axios : Politico
Under pressure from both parties, Biden’s transition decisions will frame his administration’s priorities for the next four years.
Progressive Cabinet picks may signal
the administration plans to promote a
partisan agenda via executive action.
More moderate nominees may
indicate a push towards bipartisan
action.
If the Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, they could block more
contentious nominees, forcing Biden to choose more centrist cabinet picks.
• White House Ebola Response Coordinator (2014-15) and Senior WH aide to President Obama, responsible for implementing the Recovery Act
• Chief of Staff to VP Joe Biden (2009-2011) and VP Al Gore (1995-1999)
• Associate Counsel to President Clinton in charge of judicial selection
• Chief Council to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary (1989-1992)
Ron Klain
Likely Chief of Staff
Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : Harvard
Potential Secretary of the Treasury
• U.S. Senator from MA (2013 - present)
• Former Presidential candidate
• Assistant to the President & Special Advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010-2011)
Elizabeth Warren
• Visiting law professor at Duke University (2018-present)
• Former Deputy Secretary of Treasury
• Former Federal Reserve Governor (2010-2014)
Sarah Bloom Raskin
• Member of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Board of Governors
• Served as the U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs & as Counselor to the Secretary of the Treasury (2009 -2013)
Lael Brainard
• President and CEO of TIAA-CREF (2008-present)
• Former Federal Reserve and Governor
• Served on Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness and the Economic Recovery Advisory Board
Roger Ferguson
Source: Politico : Financial Times : Prospect
Other potential picks:• Mellody Hobson, President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments• Raphael Bostic, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Governor of Rhode Island (2015-present)
• General Treasurer of Rhode Island (2011-2015)
Gina Raimondo
• CEO of Quibi
• Former CEO of Hewlett Packard (2011-2018)
• Former CEO of eBay (1998-2008)
• Former Republican candidate for Governor of California (2010)
• President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments (1991-present)
• Recipient of Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson Award (2019)
Potential Secretary of Commerce
Meg Whitman Mellody Hobson
Source: Politico : Financial Times
• Congressional Representative from California (2017-present) on House Ways & Means Committee
• Served on House USMCA working group and helped negotiate stronger labor provisions in USMCA
• President and Co-Founder of McLarty Associates (1998-present)
• Former White House special advisor on Western Hemisphere affairs
• Former General Council of the Senate Judiciary Committee
Potential U.S. Trade Representative
Rep. Jimmy Gomez Nelson Cunningham
Source: Politico : Reuters
Potential Economic Advisors
•Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
•Heather Boushey, President and CEO of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Council of Economic Advisors
• Jason Furman, American economist and professor at Harvard University; served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (2013-2017)
• Lael Brainard, member of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors
• Sarah Bloom Raskin, American attorney; formerly a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and a former United States Deputy Secretary of the Treasury
• Larry Summers, American economist; former director of the National Economic Council for President Obama
National Economic Council
Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : CNBC
Policies Impacting America’s Global Competitiveness
Known Policy
Themes
China
•COVID Response
•IP/AI Protections
•Human Rights
•Regional Militarization
Supply Chain Accountability
•Buy American
•Human Rights
•Def. Prod. Act
•Tax Policy
‘Technological Sovereignty’
•Data Privacy Patchwork
•US Nat. Security Reviews/EOs
Political Participation
•Lobbying Disclosure
•Corp. Political Activities (e.g. PACS)Gov. Revenue
•State Shortfalls
•Federal Tax Increases
•New Congressional Priorities
Environmental Responsibility
•Paris Agreement
•Green New Deal
•Regulatory Activism
Trade Priorities
•DST Retaliation
•U.S.-EU FTA
•U.S.-UK FTA
•TPA Renewal
Economic Recovery
•Income Inequality
•Infrastructure
•Business Visas
•Workforce Dev.
For GBA members, there are several important policy themes certain to be at the forefront for policymakers next year.
Each of these themes contain important policy considerations and implications for U.S. competitiveness in attracting FDI.
US-China Policy Contentions
Human Rights
COVID-19 Transparency
Interference in the U.S. Political Process
IP Protection & Data Theft
Hong Kong Crackdown
Unilateral Trade Tariffs
Currency Manipulation/
State Subsidization
Coercive Inbound
Investment Policies
Regional Militarization
Political Rhetoric
CFIUS Scrutiny
Export Controls
• Of the dozen distinct issues identified, eight could have direct implications for GBA members.
• As policymakers seeks to address these concerns, the risk that they will inadvertently impact the broader inbound business community remains high.
New Frontiers on National Security Reviews
Commercial Activity & Supply Chains
ICTS Supply Chain EO
BIS Entity List
Bulk Power Supply EO
“National Strategy for Critical and Emerging Technologies”
ECRA
“National Strategy to Secure 5G”
Critical Minerals Supply Chain EO
Mergers & Acquisitions
Expanded CFIUS Scope Under FIRRMA
FCC “Team Telecom”
Federal Procurement Policies
Buy American / Pandemic Response
Federal Acquisition Security Council (FASC)
DOD Procurement Bans
Over the past five years, we’ve seen a dramatic expansion of America’s national security review apparatus.
Rethinking Biden’s Plan for Tax Increases
If Congress remains split, President-elect Biden’s campaign promises on taxes look less certain.
It appears unlikely he will be able to implement the most ambitious parts of his tax agenda, such as increasing the corporate rate to 28 percent and making changes in international
corporate tax policy.
It is possible President Biden opts to work with Leader McConnell to implement smaller reforms in exchange for addressing upcoming phaseouts in TCJA.
Republicans may seek to extend 100% bonus depreciation and delay Section 163(j)’s change from an EBITDA to an EBIT standard in exchange for these reforms.
Biden could, however, halt taxpayer-favorable regulatory structures, such as the pending replacement of debt/equity regulations
(Section 385).
Source: Linked above : H/T Akin Gump
Biden Campaign on Trade
Buy American Buy American
• $400 billion procurement investments for “Made in America” including pharmaceuticals, products in
telecom and AI industries, clean energy products and building materials
• Update international trade rules on government procurement
• Tax benefit claw-back provision for companies outsourcing jobs
China Preference for multilateralism in countering China
• "Hands may be tied" on removing tariffs• Maintain steel and aluminum tariffs
Trade
Agreements
Free Trade Agreements will take a “backseat”
• TPA renewal is not a priority
• U.S.-U.K. trade deal negotiations may be paused
• Will end U.S.-EU trade war
DST Retaliation Restart OECD negotiations on Digital Services Taxes
• Completion of Section 301 investigations
WTO Potential WTO reform
Tariffs Review Trump’s trade tariffs on global imports
Additional
Policies
Repairing relationships with U.S. allies
• May include negotiating an end to the ongoing Boeing/Airbus subsidy dispute and associated tariffs
Potential Policy Timing
First 100 Days
COVID health and economic response will dominate
Executive Orders reversing the Muslim travel ban, reinstating the DACA program, instituting new White House ethics guidelines
COVID response measures• Appoint supply chain commander to oversee PPE and testing• Increase use of Defense Production Act• Rejoin WHO
Reenter Paris climate accords and re-establish Obama-era environmental regulations
President-elect Biden announced that his top four priorities will be COVID-19 economic recovery, racial equity and climate change.
Source: Biden
First Year
Address expiring TCJA provisions
COVID vaccine disbursement
DISCLOSE Act
Bipartisan interest in strengthening FARA
Review of nonimmigrant visa programs
Expect a continued bipartisan reassessment of global connections.
The Biden Administration will focus on domestic priorities but expect an effort to rebuild relationships with allies and continued emphasis on curbing China’s influence.
Progressive Democrats will assert their agenda.
It’s an open question on whether it will be welcomed by the Biden Administration and House leadership.
“The leadership and elements of the party — frankly, people in some of the most important
decision-making positions in the party — are becoming so blinded to this anti-activist sentiment that they are blinding themselves to the very assets that they offer.”
“We need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again. Because while
people think it doesn’t matter, it does matter. And we lost good
members because of it. If we are classifying Tuesday as a success from a congressional standpoint, we will get… torn apart in 2022.”
Source: NYT : CNN
– Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) – Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
Speaker Pelosi’s Challenge
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
President Trump’s future political pertinence is an open question.
Expect congressional Republicans and 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls to wrestle with Trump’s influence in future elections.
About GBAAs the premier voice of international companies in the United States, the Global Business Alliance (GBA) actively promotes and defends an open economy that welcomes international companies to invest in America. Our members are American companies with global heritage and an indispensable part of our nation’s economic success. When America is open for business, we all benefit.