Post on 14-Dec-2015
On Forecasts & Opinions
Opinions are like watches; no two are ever the same; but each believes their own.
Forecasts are science-fiction. • Predicting R&D breakthroughs and examining their impacts is
needed to focus and stimulate research efforts. Where would NASA be without Jules Verne or Star Trek?
Forecasts help plan to meet future needs.• Directionally correct; precisely wrong.
R&D Needs Identification
Key Sources:• Petroleum Technology Alliance Canada (PTAC)• Canadian Oilsands Network for R&D (CONRAD)• Panel on Energy Research and Development (PERD)• Alberta Chamber of Resources (ACR)• Experience with New Paradigm Development
Petroleum Technology Alliance Canada (PTAC) Objective:
• Technology for WCSB conventional oil and gas. • Fill the R&D gap left by downsizing of the majors.
Activities:• Focused on the process of collaboration. Put researchers
together with funding.• Open to membership by individuals ($100) and major producers
($11,000)• Workshops to highlight needs --> generate proposals
Canadian Oilsands Network for R&D (CONRAD)
Objective:• Share expensive R&D infrastructure for Oil Sands
development• Work on common problems/issues through collaboration
Activities:• Generation of projects that members opt into• Membership Oil Sands Producers, Government Research
Organizations• Sub-Committees to focus effort and set goals
Panel on Energy Research & Development (PERD)
Objective:• Provide support to energy resource development through
additional funding to Federal researchers. Activities:
• Several Tasks - Total 1998/99 Budget $54 million • Tasks - Energy Efficiency, Energy & Climate Change,
Transportation, Renewable Energy and Hydrocarbons with input from industry
• Hydrocarbons $15.6 million. Planning Study in 1998 to provide input on needs.
Alberta Chamber of Resources (ACR)
Objective:• Ensure Alberta resource development remains competitive in
a Global Environment
Activities:• Form focus task groups - Oil Sands, Blackoil Pipelines,
Carbon Dioxide Utilization• Membership open to small and large firms.• Commissions studies to evaluate external forces and initiate
actions in response.
New Oil & Gas Developments
Horizontal Wells• Enhance reservoir access with less surface impact.
3-D, 4-D and Comparative Seismic• Understanding the reservoirs and how fluid flows.
Downhole Oil/Water Separation/Processing• Remove contaminants at or near the source.
Oil Sands Mining, Extraction, Upgrading• Cost/bbl reduced from $35 to $13 and potentially lower.
Planning for the Future
R&D will be based on Collaboration• Meet needs of producers, inventors, researchers,
manufacturers, governments and the public.
Main Canadian industry threats or opportunities will be from Global factors
• World Oil Price Fluctuations• Venezuelan/Mexican Heavy Oil Production• Increasing Energy Demand - Decreasing Reserves• Global Climate Change Impacts
What Specifically is Needed?
Oil Sand Mining• Improved Upgrading Processes
Oil Sands In-Situ• Improved Energy Utilization
Conventional Heavy Oil• Opportunity to Improve Access
Convention Oil• Enhance Recovery of Original Oil in Place (OOIP)
Natural Gas• Reduce Energy Costs of Compression
Critical Change Analysis
Current StateMore or less
Defined
Change
Needed
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Outcome 3Outcome 4…..etc.
S yn the tic C rude P roduc tion 1970 -1996
0
5 ,000
10 ,000
15 ,000
20 ,000
T housands C ub ic M etres
Oil-Sands Mining(Synthetic Crude)
Improved Methane
Reforming Catalysts
ImproveUpgradingProcesses
UpgradingBreakthrough
Find a use for CO2
from Reforming
Low cost CO2Disposal Process
Upgrading - Hydrogen SupplyCosts and CO2Emissions High
Oil Sands In-situ(Bitumen)
Control of Reservoir Heating
Thermal Recovery Energy
Intensive
ImproveEnergy
Utilization
Monitoring of Reservoir
Distribution
In-Situ Upgrading
Co-Generation on Surface
Conventional Heavy Oil
Stir Up the Reservoir
Access Without Casing
LargeVolumes ofSand - Poor
Access
Produce the
Reservoir
Enhanced In-SituSeparation
Turn IntoOpportunity
Conventional Oil
High Cost ofInjectants for
EOR
Low CostInjectantSupplies
Alternate Water Sources
Carbon Dioxide
NitrogenAir or Oxygen
Natural Gas
Geothermal Co-generation
Technology
10-15% of Gas Used for Fuel
ReduceFuel
Costs
Co-generation inGas Treating
Acid Gas Injection
Gas Liquefaction for Pipelines
Canadian Fossil Fuel Emissions
050
100150200250300350400450500
1958 1968 1978 1988
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(Me
ga
ton
ne
s)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(T
on
ne
s p
er C
ap
ita)
CO2 Emissions(Megatonnes)
CO2 Emissions(Tonnes perCapita)
Source: Statistics Canada
Environmental Responses
Focus onEnd-Use
Better Lifestyle
Decisions
Full-Cycle Analysis of
Energy Alternatives
Oil & GasIndustry Major
Emitter
Public Information
Producers vs... Users
Sharing
Comments on Other Futures
Hydrocarbon Use will not go Away• Will remain largest Global energy source.• “Renewables” not all environmentally friendly
Coal Bed Methane - Newest Source• Enhanced contact for CO2 to CH4 exchange.• Potential for major impacts on industry
Natural Gas Hydrates - Unlikely Source• Energy required to produce likely higher than energy
contained.
Oil and Gas Industry R&D Supporting the 3R’s
Reduce - Main R&D thrust = Efficient use• Life Vs.. Lifestyle and reduce energy waste
Reuse - All energy/processing industries will become more integrated
• Co-generation with waste heat, minimize hauling of wastes or intermediate products
Renewal - Oil and Gas Industry has lots of room to adapt to change.
For Chemical Engineers
Will likely be considerable work to do Future will demand
• Flexibility• Broad Knowledge Base• Collaboration between industries• Innovative Ideas
Everyone should look forward to:
“Living in Interesting Times!”
Acknowledgments
Clients - NRCan & PERD, Oil & Gas Producers Alliance Partners - C-FER Technologies Inc.,
KR Croasdale & Associates, R&D 2000, Colin Gosselin
Contact Networks - CSChE, PTAC, ACR, CIM, SPE, CAPP, individual colleagues
New Paradigm Affiliates - KeyTech Energy Inc. & Avatar Systems Inc.
Family and Friends