Post on 15-Jun-2015
description
Comparison Study:• Armenia• Belarus• Ukraine
Politicalinindex
Where the risk is greatest that economic distress will foment social unrest
• Political Instability Task Force (PITF), George Mason University in the US – quantitative model with 80% success rate of predictability since 1955
• Cannot predict the intensity or duration of the instability, or its exact timing
• In 46 out of 50 cases of instability (instances of "adverse regime change") identified since 1980 by the PITF (about one-half of these were in Africa), the country had suffered a decline in GDP per head in at least one of the two years prior to the occurrence of instability
Sources: http://www.economist.com/node/13315243
Index Components
• Underlying vulnerability– Inequality– State history– Corruption– Ethnic fragmentation– Trust in institutions– Status of minorities– History of political instability– Proclivity to labour unrest– Level of social provision– A country's neighbourhood– Regime type– Regime type and factionalism
• Economic distress– Growth in incomes– Unemployment– Level of income per head
• Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=874361472
Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=874361472
Political Instability Index2009-2010 Index
Rank Country Underlying vulnerability
Economic distress
Index score
2007 score
1 Zimbabwe 7.5 10.0 8.8 8.82 Chad 7.1 10.0 8.5 7.5
3
Congo (Democratic Republic) 8.3 8.0 8.2 7.2
4 Cambodia 7.9 8.0 8.0 6.0Sudan 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.0
6 Iraq 8.8 7.0 7.9 7.97 Haiti 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.8
Afghanistan 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.8Central African Republic 7.5 8.0 7.8 5.8Pakistan 7.5 8.0 7.8 5.8Cote d'Ivoire 7.5 8.0 7.8 7.8Zambia 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.8
13 North Korea 5.4 10.0 7.7 3.7
16 Ukraine 6.3 9.0 7.6 4.694 Armenia 4.6 7.0 5.8 3.8
124 Belarus 4.6 5.0 4.8 2.8
Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=social_unrest_table&page=noads&rf=0
Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm
Political Stability
• - Improving female life expectancy rate and infantile survival rate will improve- Enhancing primary Health Care services- Promoting investments domestically and internationally- Utilizing and managing resources well- Job creations
Political Instability
• Decrease in FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
• Decrease in production levels, damage to infrastructure, resources not be used to their full capacity, human and money resources are not used wisely
• Without consensus, governments low economic reforms
Source: https://ib-economics.wikispaces.com/Political+Stability+and+Instability
Criticism
• Unpredictability of Arab Spring(report published after Economic Crisis,Latvia & Island government ousting examples)
• Political actions and sanctions, such as embargos(despite number of high risked countriestripling in comparison with 2007 figures)
Source: Managing Supply Chain Risks, http://supplychainreallife.wordpress.com/
Criticism cont’d
• broad definition of the absence of domestic civil conflict and widespread violencee. g. Jimmy Carter on Iran in 1977 as “an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world”
• Inadeqate assessment of government longevitycf. Italy (60 years – 60 governments),Belgium (541 days w/out cabinet) & Egyptwhen considered to be actually enhancing stability authoritarianism = full democracies v. hybrid regimes
Source: Cecilia Emma Sottilotta, Political Stability in Authoritarian Regimes: Lessons from the Arab Uprisings, IAI WORKING PAPERS 13 | 01 – January 2013 - http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1301.pdf
Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/PTfig04.htm
Ukraine’s EuroMaydan 2013
Source: http://news.bigmir.net/life/775514-FOTO-nedeli--Evromajdan--den--pamjati-zhertv-Golodomora-i-izverzhenie-Etny
Armenia’s 2013 ‘Barevolution’ (presidency runner up hunger strike)
Source: http://www.km.ru/world/2013/04/10/borba-oppozitsii-za-vlast-za-rubezhom/708110-aktsiya-protesta-oppozitsii-v-erevane-
Armenia 2013 Public Transportation are Increase Protests
Source: http://armenianow.com/news/48027/armenia_bus_fare_raise_republican_party_mayor
Belarus 2010-2011President Elections Protests
Source: http://gallery.korrespondent.net/world/3142-milicyya-suprac-naroda-zaderzhanie-uchastnikov-revolyucii-cherez-socialnye-seti
Belarus 2012Teddy Bear Airdrop
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/europe/in-belarus-a-teddy-bear-airdrop-vexes-lukashenko.html?_r=0
Kostiantyn Iakovliev(Ukraine)MA in Human Rights and Democratization,Yerevan State University – Belarusian State University, 2013
https://plus.google.com/u/0/+KostiantynIakovliev/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/iakovliev