Post on 26-Oct-2021
Pluralist model – Robert Dahl,Who Governs 1960 relatively open marketplace of ideas for new policies. Any interest group has the opportunity to influence
the agenda. may not win, but they will not be excluded from the
decision making process.
NormativeTheory - how the politics should be, valuesEmpiricalTheory – how politics is, descriptive, data
To thin the hordes of pedestrians on the surface, they proposed an underground people mover. One North/South for the Peachtree corridor and one East/West for the Marietta St- Edgewood corridor
Elitist Model Elites keep certain issues off of the agenda Same interests win again and again.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/02/1138953/-U-S-lags-on-sick-leave-and-pregnancy-protections-but-the-fight-is-on-to-change-that
PAID LEAVE FOR NEW M O MS
Let'sGet with the (Paid Leave) Program...Other countries in the Qyganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) started providingpaid maternity leave more than 100 years ago. Wh.en wil l the United States get with the program?
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0...NATIONAL PARTNERSHIP FOR WOMEN & FAMILIES
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Pluralist model relatively open marketplace of ideas for new policies. emphasis on fluidity of issues.
Elitist Model Economic elites keep certain issues off of the agenda emphasis on non-issues
governmental or systematic agenda issues which are perceived by members of the political
community as meriting of public attention involve matters within the legitimate jurisdiction of
existing governmental authority.
decision agenda Issues/policies up for active and serious consideration of
authoritative decision makers.
Examples?
Kingdon, Agenda, Alternatives, and Public Policy
How do issues from governmental to decision agenda (active consideration)?
Why a small number of solutions are considered?
GovernmentalAgenda- Energy DecisionAgenda- coal regulation, drilling
public lands Not on agenda- gax tax, banning private
ownership of cars
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, 2010-Largest oil spill in US history-killed 11 workers
Anthony Downs, IAC, 1972 --cited 3,669 times
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Biggest oil spill in US history
“Deepwater Horizon” is an homage to strength and get-on-with-it competence, a stirring portrait of brawn and know-how that are continually undermined by the preening ambitions of clueless elites. Washington Post Sep 29, 2016
is an homage to strength and get-on-with-it competence, a stirring portrait of brawn and know-how that are continually undermined by the preening ambitions of clueless elites.
The pre-problem stage Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm Realizing the cost of significant progress Gradual decline of intense public interest The post-problem stage
Step 1 . The pre-problem stage
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OIL-SPILL TRENDSAlthough average shipspills are in decline, pipeline burstsareincreasing. Blowouts are more sporadicand hardto track.
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Atlorttic EmpressTfinidad and Tobago
Castillode BeUverSouth Africa
ABT SummerAngola
0 Somenotable tanker spills Average tankerspillage per decade
Average number of pipeline spills perdecadeAmoco Cadiz
FranceSeaEmpressUnited Kingdom
Deepwater HorizonGulf of Mexico
MetulaChile
NowruzIran•·
SeaStarGulf of Oman
Exxon ValdezAlaska
ErikaFranceOdyssey
Canada....'.l PrestigeSpain
MontaraAustralia
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
"Estimate from Pemex · During Iran-Iraq war
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Thick, sticky oil crept deeper into delicate marshes of the Mississippi Delta, an arrival dreaded for a month since the crude started spewing into the Gulf, as anger and frustration mounted over efforts to plug the gusher from a blown-out well and contain the spill.
Up to now, only tar balls and a sheen of oil had come ashore. But chocolate brown and vivid orange globs and sheets of foul-smelling oil the consistency of latex paint have begun coating the reeds and grasses of Louisiana's wetlands, home to rare birds, mammals and a rich variety of marine life.
With each passing day, outrage grows. State and local officials say the federal government isn't doing enough. President BarackObama faults the agency that oversees offshore drilling. Republicans say the Coast Guard and the administration should have done more.
CBS News May 21, 2010 Outrage Over Gulf Oil SpillGrows
8
Obama- issues a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling," Obama said. "I know this creates difficulty for the people who work on these rigs, but for the sake of their safety, and for the sake of the entire region, we need to know the facts before we allow deepwaterdrilling to continue.“
Cancels lease sales planned in the Western Gulf and off the coast of Virginia, Alaska
"Continuing drilling at these depths without knowing what happened does not make sense,"
CBS New Poll, 2010
3. Rea lizing t he cost of significa ntprog ress
• Gulf =2nd largest offshore oil field in World. 175 wells
• 30% of U.S. oil and 10% of U.S. natural gas
• Deepwater• 70% of new finds• average discovery was 150 million
barrels vs 25 million barrels for onshore discoveries.
• Permanent Ban would cost• 2015 – 289,716 jobs• 2015 – $10.13 billion lost taxes to feds• 2015- $5 billion in lost taxes to state
3. Realizing t he Cost of significantprogress
torical Price of Natural Gas and Crude Oil
- Natural Gas - crude Oil
2 0 1 1 goes out w ith record gas pricesPosted in: Gas Prices, by P a trick DeHaan on Jan 2, 2012 11 :17 AM
610 C m m e n t s Q II checked my calendarover, and none to soon, t a harbinger to what's tohate to even bring it up, t and I are finishing ourgasoline price proj ections
t Iran talking about closi1Hormuz, I 'm worried.
First things first- how byour wallet? Rough. 2011highest yearly average gasoline- $ 3 .513, a whc
Gradual decline of intense publicinterest
Obama ends Atlantic drilling Moratorium, April 2010
"This is not a decision that I’ve made lightly," Obama said. "But the bottom line is this: given our energy needs, in order to sustain economic growth, produce jobs, and keep our businesses competitive, we’re going to need to harness traditional sources of fuel even as we ramp up production of new sources of renewable, homegrown energy.
# of newspaper stories Google trends Numbers represent search interest relative to the
highest point on the chart. If at most 10% of searches for the given region and time frame werefor "pizza," we'd consider this 100. This doesn't convey absolute search volume.
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PEW RESEARCH CENTER'S PROJECT FOR EXCELLENCE IN JOURNAUS M
oil spillSearch term +Add term
Interest over t ime 1 0 News headlines Forecast
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“We should not underestimate theAmerican; public’s capacity to become bored, especially with something that does not immediately threaten them or promise huge benefits for a majority.”
“American public attention rarely remains sharplyfocused upon any one domestic issue for very long—even if it involves a continuing problem of crucialimportance to society.” P. 38
Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies, January-December
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Causality? Public becomes interested after a “dramatic series
of events”
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Interpretation of Events is not obvious Killer fogAct of God Cuyahoga RiverDestroys shipping
Small minority of people suffer (losers) Suffering provide significant benefits to
majority or powerful minority of population. (winners)
Not glamorous
Environmental issues?
Ability of Actor s t o Dim inish MediaCoverage
Gulf of Mexico restorat ionBP is supporting economic and environmental restoration efforts in the Gulf Coast as part of ourongoing commitment to the region fo llowing the Deepwater Horizon accident in 2010
Four Years After BP: Hunting for OilSpills in LouisianaWednesday. 16 April '.!04 10 :'.!9ByMike Ludwig, Truthout IReport
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Coastal protection orga11ize1: Jonathan Heu derson frequently finds tar balls on Louisiana beaches.
Percent responding 11too little 11 spent on iln p 1·oving and protecting the env iro1un entso-.- -.
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Recha rges public at te nt ion a ndinterest in envm. issues
Childhood Asthma Hospitalization RatesPer Zip Code and Per 1,000 Children inRelation to Toxic Facilities in The Bronx
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Competitive battle for media attention or inattention to environmental issues
Public outrages likely to be short lived Move quickly after a disaster/crisis; ask for as
much as you can before public’s interest wanes.
How do issues from governmental to decision agenda (active consideration)?
Why a small number of solutions are considered?
My theory doesn’t really work....