Perú: Economic and Political Overview - LarrainVial · PDF filePerú: Economic...

Post on 06-Feb-2018

216 views 1 download

Transcript of Perú: Economic and Political Overview - LarrainVial · PDF filePerú: Economic...

Perú: Economic and Political Overview

Economy Growth

GDP: Quarterly Growth - Develop vs. Emerging vs. Perú

Latin-American GDP

Economy Growth

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Gross Domestic ProductMM. S/.

Index

In 2010, Perú grew 8.78% explained bydomestic demand and exports

In the period 2000-2010, Mining GDPgrew 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mining GDP

Perú GDP Mining GDP

GDP Per-Capita

Perú has increased in 146% its GDP percapita from 2000 - 2010

Chile has the highest GDP pc. In theregion and Bolivia the lowest

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011*

GDP Per-Capita (US$)

* Estimate

* Estimate

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

GDP Per-Capita Latam

GDP Per-Capita Perú GDP Per-Capita Chile GDP Per-Capita Colombia

GDP Per-Capita Bolivia GDP Per-Capita Ecuador

Fiscal Summary

Fuente: BCRP, IPE

Economy Forecast

GDP Growth Rate (Var. %)

*Projected Source: BCRP

Growth will be driven by increased private investment

Economy Risk

Sovereign Bonds Spread

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Ene-00 Abr-01 Jul-02 Oct-03 Ene-05 Abr-06 Jul-07 Oct-08 Ene-10EMBI LATINO EMBI PERU EMBI CHILESource: Bloomberg

Inflation

Since 2002, Perú has an explicit Inflation Targeting Policy. 2% +/-1%

Source: BCRP

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Consumer Price Index (Var.%)

Free Trade Agreements

FTA Negotiating

Country

Australia

New Zealand

Mexico

Japan

P4

FTA on Agenda

Country

Morocco

South Africa

Turkey

Russia

Panama

India

Hong Kong

Caribean Zone

Source: COMEX

FTA Signed

Country Date of sign

Tailand November 2005

United States April 2006

Chile August 2006

Canada May 2008

Singapur May 2008

China April 2009

EU May 2010

EFTA July 2010

South Corea November 2010

Presidential elections

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Alejandro Toledo Keiko Fujimori Luis Castañeda Ollanta Humala Pedro Kuczynski

26%

19%17%

15%

9%

Voting Intentions

Source: Ipsos Apoyo / published on March 13, 2011

Perú: Mining

Perú: World's leading producer

Production Ranking 2010

METAL Latin-American World

Silver 1 1

Zinc 1 2

Tin 1 3

Mercury 1 3

Lead 1 4

Gold 1 6

Copper 2 2

Source: USGS

Impact of mining

GDP

PURCHASE OF SUPPLIES

EXPORTS TAXES

Investment in social development

Profit

Investment Public Expenditure

Fiscal Deficit

Public Debt

Trade Balance

Jobs

Mining Production

Major Metals Production

In 2010, major metals production decreased but mining exports increased

Mining Production vs. Exports

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Copper (FMT) Zinc (FMT) Gold (KG) Silver (KG) Total Exports US$ MM.

Major Metals Production

Copper

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Copper (FMT) Price

Gold

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

240,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Gold (KG) Price

Silver

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Silver (KG) Price

Zinc

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Zinc (FMT) Price

Mining: Current Operations

Gold Production 2010

Silver Production 2010

La Zanja

Cerro Corona

Mining: The Potential

1% of the territory is carrying out exploration and explotation

11.5% of the national territory has been granted as a mining

concession

0.78% of national territory is destined to the extraction of

minerals in the operational phase

Only…

Mining: The Potential

Annoucements of Investment Projects by sectors (MM. US$)

Source: BCRP

Sector 2010 2011 2012 Total

Mining 3,477 6,102 7,519 17,098

Hydrocarbons 2,446 2,078 2,186 6,711

Electricity 828 1,487 1,801 4,116

Industrial 1,490 1,289 1,003 3,782

Infrastructure 2,437 1,208 796 4,440

Other Sectors 2,031 1,491 793 4,315

Total 12,709 13,655 14,098 40,462

Map of major mining projects

ExpansionsW/ EIA approved or constructionW/ EIA submitted or assessment

Exploration

Mining Projects (Expansions)

Southern PerúEstimated Total Investment

US$ 600 Millions

Compañía Minera AntaminaEstimated Total Investment

US$ 1,100 Millions

Votorantim CajamarquillaEstimated Total Investment

US$ 500 Millions

Mining Projects (Expansions)

Shougang Hierro PerúEstimated Total Investment

US$ 1,000 Millions

Sociedad Minera El BrocalEstimated Total Investment

US$ 238 Millions

Sociedad Minera Cerro VerdeEstimated Total Investment

US$ 1,500 Millions

Mining Projects

Tía MaríaEstimated Total Investment

US$ 950 Millions

Arequipa

Copper and molybdenum deposit

Mining Projects

Junín

ToromochoEstimated Total Investment

US$ 2,200 Millions

Silver, copper and molyb. deposit Potencial: 150k MT per day

Mining Projects (Feasibility stage)

Moquegua

QuellavecoEstimated Total Investment

US$ 2,200 Millions

Copper deposit Operation start: 2013

Mining Projects (Feasibility stage)

Piura

Rio BlancoEstimated Total Investment

US$ 1,440 Millions

Copper deposit Operation start: To be defined

Mining Projects (Exploration)

Cusco

AntapaccayEstimated Total Investment

US$ 700 Millions

Copper deposit Exploration has started in 2010

Mining Projects (Exploration)

Apurimac

Las BambasEstimated Total Investment

US$ 1,500 Millions

Copper deposit Exploration start: To be defined

BUENAVENTURA

La Zanja

Company overviewtowards 60 years in mining

Strong portafolio

of mining projects

At least 70% of

revenues from

precious metals

Growing gold

production from

direct operations

Listed in the NYSE

(BVN) and the Lima

Stock Exchange

(BVN.LM)

Strong cash

position / balance

sheet

Experienced team

No hedges

Focused in

explorations43.65% stake in Yanacocha

19.26% stake in Cerro Verde

49.00% stake in Chucapaca

Attractive Equity

Investments

Financial Track Record

32

Buenaventura & Affiliates Revenues & EBITDA Breakdown

33

Main Operations

NAME METALSTYPE

(Open Pit / Underground)

Uchucchacua Silver, Lead, Zinc Underground

Orcopampa Gold, Silver Underground

Poracota Gold, Silver Underground

Julcani Silver, Copper, Lead Underground

Recuperada Silver, Lead, Zinc Underground

Antapite Gold, Silver Underground

Shila-Paula Gold, Silver Underground

El Brocal (Colquijirca, Marcapunta)

Zinc, Lead, Silver, Copper

Open Pit

La Zanja Gold, Silver Open Pit

Yanacocha (43.65%) Gold, Silver Open Pit

Cerro Verde (19.26%) Copper, Molybdenum Open Pit

DIR

ECT

OP

ERA

TIO

NS

AFF

ILIA

TES

34

Gold, Silver, Copper and Zinc Equity Production

* Estimated 35

Reserves & Resources

36

Location of Exploration

Prospects

37

Trapiche

Chucapaca

Hualgayoc

El Faique

Colquemayo

La Joya

Pachuca / Real del Monte *

* 100 Km north of Mexico

City, in the state of

Hidalgo.

El Faique

TrapicheBreapampa

Chucapaca

Exploration

projects

La Zanja

Uchucchacua Colquijirca

Antapite

Orcopampa

Mining districtsTantahuatay

Mallay Marcapunta

Development

projects

Julcani / Recuperada

PaulaPoracota

Colquemayo

Lima

La Joya

Hualgayoc

Cerro Verde

Yanacocha

EXPLORATIONS

Focused on precious metals

Solid exploration portfolio

Exploring inside Peru & Latinamerica

Share risk through jointventure

OPERATIONS

Improving mining operations

Improving metallurgical process

Incorporating chemical process

Assuring power supply

M & A

Mainly gold and preciousmetals

Junior companies

Located in Peru & Latinamerica

Controlling interests

Creating Value Through…

SUSTAINABILITYTaking care of environmental

issues

Improving community

relations

Good corporate governance

38SAFETY IN EVERYTHING WE DO

39

Shareholders Strategy

BVN has not issued

new equity for 15

years

BVN LISTED

NYSE

Major mining properties & projectsin Cajamarca

41

Shareholders Structure

NAME INTEREST

Institutional Investors 55 %

Benavides Family 27 %

Peruvian Pension Funds (AFP’s) 12 %

Others 6 %

OUTSTANDING SHARES

254,442,328

42