Peak IT: why digital may stop delivering value

Post on 16-Jul-2015

3.599 views 1 download

Tags:

Transcript of Peak IT: why digital may stop delivering value

Angry, stressed, frustrated with IT

3400 2012

M T W T F

Arbeidsmiljøloven4 kapitlet

Arbeidstakerne skal gis nødvendig opplæring for å sette seg inn i systemene, og de skal medvirke ved utformingen av dem.

Kapittel 4, § 4-2

Arbeidstakerne skal gis nødvendig opplæring for å sette seg inn i systemene, og de skal medvirke ved utformingen av dem.

Kapittel 4, § 4-2

Arbeidstakerne skal gis nødvendig opplæring for å sette seg inn i systemene, og de skal medvirke ved utformingen av dem.

Kapittel 4, § 4-2

USER-CENTERED

DESIGN:

IT’S THE LAW

Coins, notes, SMS, cards, app, PayPal

Coins, notes, SMS, cards, app, PayPal

What if digital stops delivering value?Jonas Söderström • InUse ExperienceBetalingsformidling 201511 mars 2015

or

Peak IT?Ju

dith

/ Fl

ickr

are we approaching

@jonas_blind_hen@inuse_swe

#betfor15 #peakIT

twitter

Digital funktion och passion

Stockholm • Göteborg • Malmö

FUTURE(Back to the)

Now

vern

hart

/ Flic

kr

vern

hart

/ Flic

kr

One strong metaphor for

what’s happening:

Moore’slaw

Moore himself!

A new chip!

But let’s get backto the 60’ies

They promised not just flying cars, but AFFLUENCE...

1968: Sweden in 200024 of the most in!uential scientists, entreprenuers

3 months vacation60.000 SEK/month4 hrs working day

60.000 SEK/monthIn 1968 value

482.226 SEK/monthIn 2014 value

But, well ...

Financial Times Oct 26, 2014

Productivity falling

Economist Oct 4, 2014

A slowdown in technical progress is the reason usually given for this

progressive deceleration in productivity growth.

”Financial Times Oct 26, 2014

?

The s-shaped

curve

Law of diminishing

returns

Antibiotics

Resistance

Motorways

Traffic jams

After 5 years of construction to widen I-405, traffic is slightly

slower than beforeThe "fundamental rule" of traffic. Vox, Oct 23, 2014

Peak X

Have we reached PEAK IT?

How hard can it be?

””

...for example, a payroll system?

2013

20122 757 tim övertid

2011

1997 – 2010

2014

1999 – 2014

2010–2015

2003 – 2013

...

Recently:Three of the biggest

Swedish banksditched efforts to build

new platforms, with total losses of well over 10 billion SEK.

from 145 to 313 click

With new system

Renew weapons license:

mean 2 hrs 52 mWrite report, one case of shoplifting:

Why?

Alt 1: Everyone is an idiot

Alt 2: Exponentially

increasing complexity

4 6

+1

5 10

+4+1

+1

6 15

+5+1

Karolinska University HospitalLibrary, 18 Feb 2014

110 employees

117 systems

117 118

+1 +6903

§

EU

The EVIL TWIN of Metcalfe’s law

difference between theory and real-world

results

slowdown, caused by system effects

/ Flickr

BEGINNING OF CURVE

PEAK

?Future?

Have we reached PEAK IT?

Government?Bank?

Coolstartup! Disruption!

Digitalisation affords

bureaucracy

”simplify”

We don’t use IT to simplify anymore.

Programming the ENIAC, late 1940ies

We did...

Joneal Williams-Daw at the UNIVAC 1, 1953

Norc, Columbia University’s Watson Lab, 1954

but now ...

145 ➡ 313 clicks

We use IT to do new things.We use IT to

do new things.

Digitalisation drives

complexity.

... an exploding middelman economy.

Digitalisation has created ...

”Software is eating

the world”Marc Andressen

Everything that eats, also produces

excrement.

No more highways

Build smaller things

New York High Line

Copenhagen bicycle bridge

Thanks!Mail:jonas.soderstrom@inuse.se

Twitter:@Jonas_Blind_Hen

Web:inuse.sejavlaskitsystem.sestupidsystem.se

Slideshare:Jonas_inUse