Post on 27-Oct-2014
Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,
& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
August 8, 2012
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13S&P 500 Moving Averages 14S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 15S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50017
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
8/8
7/28
S&P 500 INDEX vs. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR
S&P 500 Index
Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
7/28
7/28
BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
US Boom Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index(index plus 100)
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
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Figure 2.
- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator -
Page 1 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013300
400
500
600
700
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
8/8
8/8
S&P 500 INDEX vs. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
S&P 500 Index
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index
Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
700
600
500
400
300
200
7/28
S&P 500 INDEX vs. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)
S&P 500 Index
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 4.
- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator -
Page 2 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
8/8
8/8
S&P 500 vs. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis)
YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1274.7)
S&P 500 Index (1402.2)
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 5.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
8/8
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)
S&P 500 Index
Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 6.
- Global Growth Barometer -
Page 3 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-170-160-150-140-130-120-110-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102030405060708090100110120130
-625
-525
-425
-325
-225
-125
-25
75
175
275
375
475
8/8
8/8
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Economic Surprise Index
S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 7.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
8/8
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Economic Surprise Index
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
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Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Figure 8.
- Economic Surprise Index -
Page 4 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Ratio Jul 31 1.42 Aug 7 1.71
8/7
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs. BEARS
Bull/Bear Ratio
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201310
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Bulls Bears Jul 24 40.4 26.6 Jul 31 39.4 27.7 Aug 7 43.6 25.5
8/7
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs BEARS
Bulls
Bears
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
8/7
Correction Camp
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
- Investors Intelligence Sentiment -
Page 5 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF3.0 OR MORE
8/8
yardeni.com
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 10.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141000
2000
3000
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6000
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10000
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15000
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2000
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7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF3.0 OR MORE 8/8
yardeni.com
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal Investors and Intelligence.
Figure 11.
- Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 -
Page 6 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS
8/8
yardeni.com
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 12.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
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15000
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10000
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12000
13000
14000
15000
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS 8/8
yardeni.com
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 -
Page 7 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500
(percent)
S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE
8/8
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500
(percent)
S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS
8/8
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 15.
- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 -
Page 8 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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Figure 16.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
8/1
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
8/1
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Latest Readings Bulls Bears Jul 25 28.1 43.1 Aug 1 30.5 34.9
8/1
Bulls
Bears
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
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- AAII Sentiment -
Page 9 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320
40
60
80
100
120
140
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
7/31
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
7/31
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer Comfort Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Figure 18.
- Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence -
Page 10 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
8/3
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)
Average = 1.616(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
8/3
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)
Average = 1.624(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
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Figure 20.
- S&P 500 Put Call Ratio -
Page 11 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
8/8
VIX: S&P 500
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yarden
i.com
Figure 21.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
8/8
VIX: NASDAQ 100
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yarden
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Figure 22.
- Volatility -
Page 12 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131200
3200
5200
7200
9200
11200
1200
3200
5200
7200
9200
11200
8/3
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGEWEEKLY VOLUME(million shares, 4-week moving average)
Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
yarden
i.com
Figure 23.
- Volume -
Page 13 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III2010 2011 2012
950
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1350
1400
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950
1000
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1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
8/6
S&P 500 INDEX*
Latest price: 1394.2350-dma: 1344.08200-dma: 1325.12
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s.
(+) 50-dma is rising. Latest daily change is +0.11%(+) 200-dma is rising. Latest daily change is +0.05%(+) Latest price is 3.7% above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 5.2% above the 200-dma.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
8/3
S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS50-dma relative to 200-dma (%)
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 25.
- S&P 500 Moving Averages -
Page 14 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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Figure 26.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
150
200
250
300350400
8/8CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14125
175
225
275
325375425
8/8
INDUSTRIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
200
250
300
350
4008/8CONSUMER STAPLES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
400
650
90011501400
8/8
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
250
350
450
550650750
8/8ENERGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
150
200
250
300
8/8
MATERIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475
175
275
375475575
8/8
FINANCIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475
175
275
375
475
8/8
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14225
275
325
375
425
475525
8/8HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.200-day moving average
* Ratio scale.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475
125
175
225
275
8/8
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma -
Page 15 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 27.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
8/8
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY MINUS200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
8/8
INDUSTRIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
8/8
CONSUMER STAPLES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-400
-200
0
200
400
8/8
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
8/8
ENERGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
8/8
MATERIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
8/8
FINANCIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-100
-50
0
50
100
8/8
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
8/8
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-100
-50
0
50
100
8/8
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma -
Page 16 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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Figure 28.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.16
.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
.28
8/8
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.16
.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
8/8
INDUSTRIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
8/8CONSUMER STAPLES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.2
.4
.6
.8
8/8
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
8/8
ENERGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
8/8
MATERIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.1
.2
.3
.4
8/8
FINANCIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
8/8
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
8/8
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
.18
.20
8/8
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500 -
Page 17 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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