Post on 30-Oct-2014
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Passing the Healthcare Innovation Torch:From Medicinal Chemistry through Biotechnology to Digital Technology
Frontiers of MedicineMaRS
8 May 2013Martin Sumner-Smith
About me
Martin Sumner-Smith, PhD
Academic – Biotechnology – Bioinformatics – Enterprise – Advisory
1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
Global Core Systems
The world’s 4 trillion dollar challenge, Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet – IBM
Inefficiency in Healthcare
The world’s 4 trillion dollar challenge, Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet – IBM
Pharmaceuticals
Digital Health
Biotechnology
Medicinal Chemistry
“…the industry has seen itself as an independent product supplier to healthcare
rather than as an integrated part of, and collaborator with, the other participants in the
ecosystem.”
Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
Market Growth
Patent Expiry
Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
Declining R&D productivity
Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
R&D Success vs. Expenditure
Identifying R&D outliersPeter Tollman, Yves Morieux, Jeanine Kelly Murphy & Ulrik SchulzeNature Reviews Drug Discovery 10, 653-654 (September 2011)
Identifying R&D outliersPeter Tollman, Yves Morieux, Jeanine Kelly Murphy & Ulrik SchulzeNature Reviews Drug Discovery 10, 653-654 (September 2011)
http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/in_vivo_new_face_of_blockbuster_drugs_l.e.k.pdf
Life Sciences Industry Trends…
• Blockbuster era comes to an end• Strong sales growth but declining expectations
P/E for large-cap biopharma fell from 35x in 2000 to 11x in 2010
Pricing and access pressures Higher scientific hurdles More stringent regulatory hurdles Increased competition R&D actually destroys value in some
organizations!
Slide 18
Time
Mar
ket
Gro
wth
Technology AdoptionLife Cycle
GrowthMarket Mature
MarketDecliningMarket
Indefinitely elasticmiddle period
End of Life
A
FaultLine!
E
D
C
B
The Category Maturity Lifecycle
Category Lifecycle
Slide 19
ExperientialInnovation
MarketingInnovation
Innovation Types for Mature Markets – Customer Intimacy Zone
Customer Intimacy Zone
EnhancementInnovation
Line ExtensionInnovation
There are four types of innovation in the Customer Intimacy Zone
Slide 20
Market Access
• Moore describes this further market development as ‘fractilization’ of core markets
PC
1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
First DTG in 1981Merck’s Pneumovax in Reader’s Digest
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3278148/
Average Life Expectancy
https://www.google.ca/publicdata
TRIZ
Genrich Altshuller:“Theory of Inventive Problem Solving”
1. Problems and solutions are repeated across industries and sciences
2. Patterns of technical evolution are also repeated across industries and sciences
3. Innovations used scientific effects outside the field in which they were developed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIZ
http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/in_vivo_new_face_of_blockbuster_drugs_l.e.k.pdf
http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/in_vivo_new_face_of_blockbuster_drugs_l.e.k.pdf
Therapeutic Foci
Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
Market Leading “Pharmaceuticals”
• In 2012 the top pharmaceutical was a biological for the first time Abbvie’s HUMIRA
• “By 2020 the top 10 pharmaceuticals will all be biologicals” – Steve Burrill
Sales Erosion after Patent Expiry
Small Molecule
Biologicals
Measuring the return from innovation: Is R&D earning its investment? – Deloitte
Ultra-Orphans
http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2012/09/05/how-a-440000-drug-is-turning-alexion-into-biotechs-new-innovation-powerhouse/
Alexion’s Soliris
R&D Innovation
• Rising costs, especially sunk cost for failures Late stage failure rates too high
• Declining output Need to simplify operations
• Costs 7x in 25 years Cost per new drug now $1.1 - 1.7 billion Slow pace of discovery and validation Inefficient patient recruitment
• 80% miss deadlines, average 90 day delay Complex analysis required for trial termination
RiskMitigation
The future of the life sciences industries:Transformation amid rising risk – Deloitte
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnosta/2013/04/16/digital-health-will-pharma-follow-or-lead/
Life Sciences Industry Trends
• Traditionally:A high-risk, high-margin business
• But increasing pressures:• Loss of patent protection & competition from generics• Costs of innovation and R&D skyrocketing• Reimbursement ceiling and demands• Increased transparency required by regulators & others
• Drive a move to:Managed risk and more conservative
margins
“The life sciences industry stands at a crossroads.Its business model is broken,
and the surrounding healthcare ecosystem is changing dramatically.
So how should companies respond?
They can carry on as normal andpotentially fade into insignificance
or completely rethink how they engage with theother stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem in an
effort to flourish anew.”
Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
“…you can’t meet the challenges of tomorrow with yesterday’s tools—and expect to survive.”
The future of the life sciences industries: Transformation amid rising risk– Deloitte
Pharmaceuticals
Digital Health
Biotechnology
Medicinal Chemistry
“One of the key drivers for the future lies in using information to create more personalised care and
standardisation at the same time. We are witnessing the ‘industrial revolution’ of healthcare, enabled by IT”
– PA Consulting
“And while the industry remains data rich, it is weaker when it comes to turning data into insights.”
Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
From vision to decision: Pharma 2020 – pwc
Engaging the Patient
http://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_heywood_the_big_idea_my_brother_inspired.html
Customer Experience
Management
“The shifting trend in pharma towards increased adoption of IT beyond their traditional needs and
exploring new IT avenues in digital marketing, regulatory submissions, predictive analysis & cloud computing has become more evident in the last few
years.”
IT Life Sciences Summit 2012: Technology Enabled Pharmaceutical Business Transformation – DIA
Cha
nge
Time
Achieved
Expected
Gartner’s Hype Cycle
Source: http://www.infoq.com/news/2012/08/Gartner-Hype-Cycle-2012
http://rockhealth.com/2013/04/2013-digital-health-funding-update/
Smartphone/Tablet base features
• Processor• Local and Cloud storage• Distant communication• Time• Location• Activity• Local communication• Camera…
Wearables
IMS estimates $14 million in 2011 rising to $171 million by 2016
Add-ons
Proteus Digital Health
The Internet of things – M2M
Watson
Where do the data go?
Synergy
“At 8:03am you used your asthma puffer while entering the MaRS concourse,
walking at a moderate pace towards the Tim Horton’s after an unusually long
subway ride. Your pulse was 110, blood pressure 135/80, temperature 37.2, blood
glucose…”
“Based on data collected to date I estimate that there is 78.9% probability of an allergen to
which you react present at the following locations…”
Patient empowerment trends
Thank you
Martin Sumner-Smith, PhD Email: martins@digitalforhealth.com Office/Mobile: 1 (416) 727-4426Web: www.DigitalForHealth.comTwitter: @martinssLinkedin: http://ca.linkedin.com/in/martinss