Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters

Bob Botsch Political Science USC Aiken

USC Aiken Surveys

• Began in early 1980s – Research Methods classes

• Formed Organization for Public Service and contractual work: SSBRL—Social Science and Business Research Lab

• Reports on line at: http://www.usca.edu/polisci/SSBRLab/

• Perform wide variety of research/surveys

Special Surveys under Contract

Aiken County General Population Telephone Surveys

Exit Polls in Even Numbered Years

The Long Term: Party ID Over Time

81 GP 82 8384 GP

85 GP

86 AGP

87 AGP

88 AGP89 GP

90 GP91 GP

92 EP93 GP

94 EP95 GP

96 EP 9798 EP

99 GP00 EP

01 GP02 EP

03 GP04 EP

05 GP06 EP

07 GP08 EP

09 GP

2010 EP0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% Dem % Rep% Ind

Year and Type of Survey

Party ID Over Time-2 Party Split

81 GP 82 8384 GP

85 GP

86 AGP

87 AGP

88 AGP89 GP

90 GP91 GP

92 EP93 GP

94 EP95 GP

96 EP 9798 EP

99 GP00 EP

01 GP02 EP

03 GP04 EP

05 GP06 EP

07 GP08 EP

09 GP

2010 EP0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

% Dem % Rep

Year and Type of Survey

Gender Gap (2010 Exit Poll)

• Males: 22% Dem – 57% Rep

• Females: 35% Dem – 52% Rep

Ethnicity

• Whites: 13% Dem – 67% Rep• Blacks: 92% Dem – 3% Rep

• Turnout: Blacks comprise 25% of the population but only 20% of voters

• If Dem won ALL black votes, still need 30 of the remaining 80 percentage points of the white vote, or 38% of the total white vote

Age: averages

• Democrats average age: 51

• Republicans average age: 56

Age DistributionPtyID3 by Age4

Demindep/othRep

0%

100%

18-35 36-50 50-65 66+

[Weight]

Regional Identification

• Native Southerners: 28% Dem – 57% Rep • Converted Southrn: 21% Dem – 59% Rep• Non-Southerners: 39% Dem – 39% Rep

• Non-Southerners comprise about 12% of all voters; Native Southerners about 68%

Religious Fundamentalism

• Fundamentalists: 25% Dem – 64% Rep

• Non-Fundamentalists: 30% Dem – 49% Rep

Ideology of all Voters

• Hard for non-conservatives to win in Aiken County– Liberals comprised 15% of all voters– Mid Road/Not Sure’s: 27% of all voters– Conservatives: 58% of all voters

Issue: Irritated when hear people speaking Spanish in public?

• Democrats: 36% Irritated – 65% Not• Independents: 47% Irritated – 54% Not • Republicans: 54% Irritated – 46% Not• • • Overall: 47% Irritated – 53% Not

Issue: Social Security—keep or phase out w/ voluntary savings

• Democrats: 97% Keep – 3% Phase Out• Independents: 85% Keep – 15% Phase Out• Republicans: 84% Keep – 16% Phase Out

Issue: Health Care—cover all; only old, poor child, disabled; or free market

• Democrats: 94% all; 4% o/pc/d; 2% fm• Independents: 43% all; 21% o/pc/d; 37% fm• Republicans: 17% all; 29% o/pc/d; 55% fm

• All voters: 43% all; 20% o/pc/d; 37% fm

Issue: School Vouchers— oppose b/c take $ from public schools; support b/c would

increase competition

• Democrats: 70% oppose – 30% support• Independents: 56% oppose – 44% support• Republicans: 37% oppose – 64% support

• All voters: 50% oppose – 50% support

Issue: Abortion—pro life; mid ground; or pro choice

• Democrats: 14% p/l; 26% mid; 61% p/c• Independents: 14% p/l; 35% mid; 51% p/c• Republicans: 26% p/l; 46% mid; 28% p/c

• All voters: 20% p/l; 39% mid; 41% p/c

Issue: Obama is really a Muslim?no – yes – not sure

• Democrats: 93% no – 2% yes – 6% n/s• Independents: 52% no – 27% yes – 21% n/s• Republicans: 30% no – 42% yes – 28% n/s

• All voters: 52% no – 28% yes – 20% n/s

Tea Party Supporters

• Supporters: 1% Dem – 82% Rep• Non-supporters: 57% Dem – 25% Rep

• Tea party Supporters comprised 43% of all voters• And 65% of all Republican voters• Non-Tea Party Republicans are quite different

than Tea Party Supporters—as we shall see!

How Tea Party Supporters Differ

• Should politicians compromise?• Dem: 90% Ind: 96% Rep: 82% TP: 64%• Support school vouchers?• Dem: 25% Ind: 22% Rep: 38% TP: 60%• Health care run totally by free market?• Dem: 2% Ind: 15% Rep: 47% TP: 61%• Religion very important in vote choice?• Dem: 24% Ind: 9% Rep: 25% TP: 34%

Continued

• Never bothered by Spanish in public?• Dem: 64% Ind: 60% Rep: 55% TP: 42%• Phase out Social Security?• Dem: 2% Ind: 6% Rep: 9% TP: 21%• Prefer helpful leaders over strong leaders?• Dem: 88% Ind: 72% Rep: 58% TP: 49%• Cut spending over stim econ & save programs?• Dem: 9% Ind: 41% Rep: 61% TP: 86%

continued

• Pro choice on abortion?• Dem: 56% Ind: 63% Rep: 41% TP: 22%• Self-identify as Religious Fundamentalists?• Dem: 27% Ind: 11% Rep: 28% TP: 38%• Family income > $50k last year?• Dem: 44% Ind: 65% Rep: 59% TP: 68%• Political Ideology: Moderates?• Dem: 50% Ind: 53% Rep: 22% TP: 9%

Conclusions

• Current huge advantage for GOP and conservatives – unless more moderate Republicans become

alienated by Tea Party extremism– Note: county less conservative on issues than in

labels

• Long term demographics favor more competitive elections – Because of age and non-southerners