OUR WORLD IS AT RISK• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• LANDSLIDES• WILDFIRES

THE CASE FOR A MAJOR PARADIGMN SHIFT FROM

RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCY

DURING 2014 AND BEYONDPART 1

OUR WORLD IS AT RISK• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• LANDSLIDES• WILDFIRES

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

NO DISASTERS:

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

A DISASTER:

INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

YOUR COMMUNITY

YOUR COMMUNITY

DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• ALL HAZARDS MAPS

• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

DISASTER RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

TOWARDS ALL HAZARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PPREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EARLY WARNING• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

RESILIENCY MEASURESRESILIENCY MEASURES

• PREPAREDNESS (ANTICIPATE EVERYTHING)

• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)

• EARLY WARNING

(GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY)

• PREPAREDNESS (ANTICIPATE EVERYTHING)

• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)

• EARLY WARNING

(GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY)

RESILIENCY MEASURESRESILIENCY MEASURES

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE (SAVE LIVES & PROTECT PROPERTY)

• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION (RESTORE & NORM-ALIZE SERVICES)

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE (SAVE LIVES & PROTECT PROPERTY)

• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION (RESTORE & NORM-ALIZE SERVICES)

LET’S TALK ABOUT BENEFIT-TO-COST

RATIOS JUST FOR FOR EARTHQUAKES

NOTE: Actual B/C Ratios Are A Function Of Each National

Effort; These Are Illustrative

DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST

DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000,000

THE PAYOFF IS A BETTER, SAFER, AND MORE SECURE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVERYONE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000,000

THE PAYOFF IS A BETTER, SAFER, AND MORE SECURE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVERYONE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

PUBLIC AWARENESS

ENABLES ALL SECTORS OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THEIR RISKS AND HOW TO LIVE WITH THEM

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

PUBLIC AWARENESS

ENABLES ALL SECTORS OF THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THEIR RISKS AND HOW TO LIVE WITH THEM

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE

SPEEDS RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; CAN PROMOTE PROTECTION

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE

SPEEDS RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; CAN PROMOTE PROTECTION

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

BUILDING CODE

PREVENTS COLLAPSE; RE-DUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

BUILDING CODE

PREVENTS COLLAPSE; RE-DUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

LIFELINE STANDARDS

PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

LIFELINE STANDARDS

PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

NON-STRUCTURAL PROTECTION

PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

NON-STRUCTURAL PROTECTION

PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE-HAZARD BUILDINGS

PREVENTS ALMOST CERTAIN LOSS OF LIFE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE-HAZARD BUILDINGS

PREVENTS ALMOST CERTAIN LOSS OF LIFE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

SEISMIC ZONATION

IDENTIFIES LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

SEISMIC ZONATION

IDENTIFIES LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

RETROFIT, STRENGTHENING, & REHABILITATION

ELIMINATES VULNERABILITIES; REDUCES DAMAGE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

RETROFIT, STRENGTHENING, & REHABILITATION

ELIMINATES VULNERABILITIES; REDUCES DAMAGE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

EDUCATION AND TRAINING

EXPANDS PRO-FESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

EDUCATION AND TRAINING

EXPANDS PRO-FESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

SOIL REMEDIATION

PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000

SOIL REMEDIATION

PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN

PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF IMPORTANT STRUCTURES

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN

PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE OF IMPORTANT STRUCTURES

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

URBAN PLANNING

CONTROLS DENSITY AND USE OF LAND; PROMOTES AVOID-ANCE STRATEGIES

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10

URBAN PLANNING

CONTROLS DENSITY AND USE OF LAND; PROMOTES AVOID-ANCE STRATEGIES

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 10

BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

BENEFIT/COST OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

DISASTER SCENARIOS

FACILITATES COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS FOR THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN

1< BENEFIT/COST < 10

DISASTER SCENARIOS

FACILITATES COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS FOR THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN

1< BENEFIT/COST < 10

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

A BENEFIT/COST OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

RELOCATION AND REROUTING

REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS

1< BENEFIT/COST < 10

RELOCATION AND REROUTING

REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSS

1< BENEFIT/COST < 10

OVERVIEW OF THE EARTHQUAKE

EXPERIENCE

SEISMICITY: USASEISMICITY: USA

SEISMICITY

SEISMICITY

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism

NORTHNORTHWESTWEST

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism

NORTHNORTHWESTWEST

REGIONAL DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

VIBRATION

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDE

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD CHARACTERIZATION

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD CHARACTERIZATION

• WHERE?• WHEN?• HOW BIG?• SEVERITY OF

GROUND SHAKING?

• SEVERITY OF OTHER EFFECTS?

• UNCERTAINTY?

• WHERE?• WHEN?• HOW BIG?• SEVERITY OF

GROUND SHAKING?

• SEVERITY OF OTHER EFFECTS?

• UNCERTAINTY?

ITALY: MMI MAP

PUERTO RICO: PGA MAP

SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE

SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE

SITUATION: LIVING IN AN ACTIVE FAULT ZONE

SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE

SITUATION: SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE

A TSUNAMIA TSUNAMI

• TSUNAMIS TRAVEL AT 800 KM/ HOUR, SLOWING TO 50-500 KM/HR AS SHORE IS REACHED

• WAVE HEIGHTS CAN REACH 30 M OR MORE

• WAVES CAN TRAVEL 2 KM OR MORE INLAND

• TSUNAMIS TRAVEL AT 800 KM/ HOUR, SLOWING TO 50-500 KM/HR AS SHORE IS REACHED

• WAVE HEIGHTS CAN REACH 30 M OR MORE

• WAVES CAN TRAVEL 2 KM OR MORE INLAND

LOCATIONSLOCATIONS

• TSUNAMIS OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY IN THE CIRCUM-PACIFIC REGION

• OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INDIAN OCEAN, HAWAII, CARIBBEAN, PUERTO RICO, VIRGIN ISLANDS, GUAM, WESTERN USA, AND MEDITERRANEAN

• TSUNAMIS OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY IN THE CIRCUM-PACIFIC REGION

• OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INDIAN OCEAN, HAWAII, CARIBBEAN, PUERTO RICO, VIRGIN ISLANDS, GUAM, WESTERN USA, AND MEDITERRANEAN

SITUATION:TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

SITUATION:TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

SITUATION: TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP - HAWAII

SITUATION: TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP - HAWAII

SITUATION: AFTER TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP

SITUATION: AFTER TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP

SITUATION: GROUND SHAKING DAMAGE

The Kocaeli(Turkey) Earthquakeof 17 August 1999

SITUATION: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT UNIT

SITUATION: FAILURE OF URM BUILDING

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNIT

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO A HOUSING UNIT

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO A HOUSING UNIT

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: DAMAGE TO HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: COLLAPSE OF HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: COLLAPSE OF HOUSING UNITS

SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE--LIQUEFACTION

SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE--LIQUEFACTION

SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE-- LANDSLIDE

SITUATION: GROUND FAILURE-- LANDSLIDE

SITUATION: LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS

SITUATION: LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS

• THE 1964 PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED A LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS

• MILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS OF SOIL AND ROCK WERE DIS[LACED

• THE 1964 PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED A LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDE AT TURNAGAIN HEIGHTS

• MILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS OF SOIL AND ROCK WERE DIS[LACED

SITUATION: LOSS OF POWER AND AN URBAN FIRE

SITUATION: LOSS OF POWER AND AN URBAN FIRE

THE CASE FOR A MAJOR PARADIGMN SHIFT FROM

RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCY

DURING 2014 AND BEYONDGO TO PART 2