Post on 15-Mar-2018
Western Interstate CommissionFor Higher Education
Oregon Higher Education Coordinating CommissionAugust 9, 2017
Oregon Higher Education in a Western Context: Data, Trends, and Strategies
What is WICHE?
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - WICHE
An interstate compact formed 65 years ago
WICHE’s Role in the Region Promotes access and excellence in higher
education for all citizens of the West through: Regional collaboration Resource sharing Sound public policy Innovation
Changing Demographics in the West and OregonTHE GOAL:
High School Graduates in the WICHE Region, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
350,000
450,000
550,000
650,000
750,000
850,000
950,000
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
PROJECTEDAL
ACTUAL
High School Graduates in the WICHE region by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-01 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black Hispanic White Nonpublic
772,755
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
830,996789,092
666,730
Cumulative Change in West’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31
Thou
sand
s
278K Hispanic86K Asian/Pac. Isl.14K Am. Ind./Alaska Native42K Black54K Private Schools356K White
+65K
-39K
-37K
-14K
+3K
-4K+2K
-8K
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
High School Graduates in Oregon, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
ACTUALPROJECTED
High School Graduates in Oregon by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-01 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black Hispanic White Nonpublic
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
32,45637,262 35,417
Cumulative Change in Oregon’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
5,807 Hispanic1,815 Asian/Pac. Isl.498 Am. Ind./Alaska Native779 Black2,918 Private Schools25,463 White
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 2021-22 2024-25 2027-28 2030-31
+3,341
+1,177 +1,689
+284-107
-217-250
Postsecondary Trends
THE GOAL:
Oregon Undergraduate Enrollment by Institution Type, 2010-2015 (With Percent of Total Enrollment)
Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2010-2015
52% 51% 50%49%
47% 46%
38% 38% 40% 41% 42% 43%
10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Public, 2-year Total Public, 4-year or above Total Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above
Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Oregon Public Institutions of Higher Education by Race/Ethnicity, 2005 & 2015 (With Percent Change)
Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2005 & 2015.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
White Hispanic Asian Black American Indianor Alaska Native
2005 2015
+161%
+11% +43% -16%
+3%
Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2015
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2015
29%
50%
75%71%
39%
58%
73%70%
32%
59%
76%69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Associate's Colleges Baccalaureate/Master's Institutions
Research/DoctoralUniversities
Private Four-YearInstitutions
Oregon WICHE US (no territories)
Oregon Postsecondary Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2002-2015
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015
48%
58%
32%
29%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Public, Four-Year
Public, Two-Year
Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Four-Year Institutions, 2015
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015
34%
37%
49%
59%
69%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
American Indian/Alaska Native
Black
Hispanic
White
Asian
Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Two-Year Institutions, 2015
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015
19%
19%
29%
30%
34%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Black
American Indian/Alaska Native
Hispanic
White
Asian
Levels of Education for Oregon Residents, Aged 25-64, 2015
Source: US Census, American Community Survey, PUMS One Year Survey, 2015
78,612
134,680
474,142
549,275
199,135
457,148
251,691
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Less than9th Gade
(4%)
9th to 12thgrade, nodiploma
(6%)
High schoolof GED(22%)
Somecollege, no
degree(26%)
Associate'sdegree (9%)
Bachelor'sdegree(21%)
Graduate orprofessional
degree(12%)
Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Adults Aged 25-64 (2015)
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, PUMS 1 Year Survey, 2015.
32%34%
37%37%
38%38%
41%41%
42%42%42%
44%45%
47%49%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
NevadaNew Mexico
ArizonaIdaho
WyomingAlaska
CaliforniaMontana
South DakotaUtah
OregonHawaii
WashingtonNorth Dakota
Colorado
Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Adults Aged 25-64, 2005-2015
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, PUMS 1 Year Survey, 2015.
37%
42%
39%
41%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OREGON
WICHE
Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, By Race/Ethnicity, Adults Aged 25-64 (2015)
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, https://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/.
60%
45%
34%
26%22%
61%
49%
34%
21% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Asian/PacificIslander
White Black AmericanIndian/Alaksa Native
Hispanic
Oregon WICHE
Postsecondary Funding and FinanceTHE GOAL:
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, WICHE Region, Fiscal 2000-2016
Public FTE
Dol
lars
Per
FTE
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf
$8,7
54
$9,5
78
$8,2
11
$8,7
13
$8,8
92
$7,3
37
$6,3
94
$7,1
80
$8,1
15
$2,0
99
$2,2
17
$2,6
84
$3,2
69
$2,8
22
$3,2
60
$3,9
74 $4,3
71 $4,5
23
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
$000
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
FTE
Enro
llmen
t
Educ
atio
n Re
venu
e
Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Public FTE Enrollment
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, Oregon, Fiscal 2000-2016
Dol
lars
Per
FTE Public FTE
$7,6
26
$7,1
97
$5,9
91
$6,1
05
$6,4
96
$5,2
48
$4,2
14
$4,5
98
$5,9
45
$5,2
13
$4,6
49
$5,4
83
$5,6
82
$5,7
48
$5,2
63
$6,6
56 $8,0
70 $8,2
82
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
FTE
Enro
llmen
t
Educ
atio
n Re
venu
e
Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Public FTE Enrollment
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf
Tuition as a Percent of all Education Revenue, 1991-2016
Dol
lars
Per
FTE Public FTE
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf
41%
58%
30%
47%
19%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
WICHE
OREGON
U.S.
Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, 2016-17
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.
$5,055 $5,793
$6,097 $6,301 $6,445
$6,847 $7,118 $7,223
$8,504 $8,537
$8,754 $8,941 $9,114
$9,983 $10,891
$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
WYOMINGMONTANA
NEW MEXICOUTAH
NEVADAIDAHO
NORTH DAKOTAALASKA
SOUTH DAKOTAWASHINGTON
CALIFORNIAHAWAII
OREGONCOLORADO
ARIZONA
WICHE Average Tuition & Fees, 2016-17: $8,211
Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Two-Year Institutions, 2016-17
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.
$1,380$1,896
$2,567$2,910$2,942
$3,486$3,531$3,626
$3,849$4,219$4,249
$4,469$4,706$4,808
$6,613
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000
CALIFORNIANEW MEXICO
ARIZONANEVADA
WYOMINGIDAHO
MONTANAUTAH
HAWAIICOLORADO
WASHINGTONNORTH DAKOTA
OREGONCOMM. NO. MARIANAS
SOUTH DAKOTA
Change in Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, from 2006-2016
-4%
9%
13%
25%
30%
32%
34%
39%
49%
44%
49%
53%
67%
76%
89%
100%
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Alaska
Oregon
Idaho
South Dakota
Utah
New Mexico
Washington
WICHE
Nevada
California
Colorado
Arizona
Hawaii
$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
State average cost of tution and fees at public 4-year insitutions
2006-07 2016-17Percent Increase
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.
Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Oregon Public Institutions as a Percent of the Median Household Income in Oregon
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf & U.S. Census Bureau, Table H-8
12%
14%
7% 8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2005 2008 2011 2014
Public, Four-Year
Public, Two-Year
Change in Student Debt from 2005-2015
Adapted from The Institute for College Access and Success, “Project on Student Debt,” http://www.ticas.org/posd/map-state-data-2015#.
125%not avail
117%125%133%137%138%142%143%150%151%153%153%154%171%182%
48%not avail72%57%55%69%60%58%46%67%62%54%56%46%50%47%
New MexicoNorth Dakota
IdahoArizona
CaliforniaSouth Dakota
WICHEWashington
NevadaMontana
OregonUtah
ColoradoWyoming
AlaskaHawaii
$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000Average Loan Amount of College Graduates
2005 loan amount 2015 loan amountPercent Increasen Loan Amount 2005-2015 Percent of 2015
Grads with DebtPercent Change in Loan,
2005-2015
Workforce Trends
THE GOAL:
Current Attainment (Associate’s & Above) Versus Future Job Demands
Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/StateProjections_6.1.15_agc_v2.pdf.
32%34%
42%42%
38%38%
41%37%37%
41%44%
42%45%
47%49%
30%29%
22%23%27%
28%26%
31%31%
28%26%28%25%
25%25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
NevadaNew Mexico
UtahSouth Dakota
WyomingAlaska
CaliforniaArizona
IdahoMontana
HawaiiOregon
WashingtonNorth Dakota
Colorado
Current Attainment Levels (2015)Shortage of Employees with Necessary Attainment to meet Projected Job Demands (2020)WICHE 2015 Current Attainment: 41%WICHE 2020 Projected Shortage: 28%
Growth Rate of Jobs from 2010 to 2020: Nation vs. Oregon
Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/.
34%
28%26%
24%
19% 19%18% 17%
15%
10%
17%
26%
31%
19%
26% 26%
18%
24% 24%
12%
8%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
HealthcareSupport
HealthcareProfessional
and Technical
SocialSciences
CommunityServices and
Arts
STEM Food andPersonalServices
Managerialand
ProfessionalOffice
Education Sales andOffice
Support
Blue Collar Total
Gro
wth
Rat
e fr
om 2
010
to 2
020
Oregon Nation
Oregon Workforce by Occupation, 2010 and 2020
Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Sales andOffice Support
Blue Collar Food andPersonalServices
Managerial andProfessional
Office
Education CommunityServices and
Arts
STEM HealthcareProfessional
and Technical
HealthcareSupport
Social Sciences
2010 2015
Employment Change through the Recession and Recovery
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “America’s Divided Recovery 2016” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/americas-divided-recovery/#interactive.
In Sum
Modest increase in the total number of high school graduates projected through 2025-26 (2.7%) Increasing diversity, but not as much as the rest of the
region Fairly steady enrollment increases Minority students are enrolling at a higher rate, but
still lower than White students Significant variability among the institutions
Disparities in postsecondary attainment among certain racial/ethnic groups
In Sum
Maintaining adequate and sustained funding is challenging in light of enrollment increases Substantial tuition increases at certain institutions
Highest percentage growth is in healthcare fields, but the largest numbers are jobs that are often low-wage (sales/office support, blue collar, food and personal services)
Strategies Heading Into the FutureTHE GOAL:
Coordinating Board – Primary Functions
1. State-level planning – establish goals and monitor progress2. Formulate and implement state higher education finance policy3. Maintain databases and conduct analyses that inform policy4. Perform necessary regulatory functions (e.g., licensure, approval of
missions)5. Administer state programs (e.g., student financial aid)6. Take the lead in creating the delivery capacity necessary to
effectively and efficiently achieve state goals
40
Source: Aims McGuinness “State Policy Leadership for the Future,” Education Commission of the States, May 2016
Coordinating Board – Necessary CapacitiesEffective, sustained Policy Leadership requires
• Strength to counter inappropriate political, partisan, institutional, or parochial influences
• Capacity and responsibility for articulating and monitoring state performance objectives for higher education
• Ability to engage civic, business, and public school officials (as well as state government and higher education leaders) in identifying priority issues and implementing strategies necessary to addressing them
• Recognition of the distinctions between statewide policy and institutional governance
• Information gathering and analytic capacity to inform the choice of state goals/priorities and to interpret and evaluate statewide and institutional performance in relation to these goals
41
From NCPPHE “State Capacity for Higher Education Policy Leadership”, July 2005Source: Dennis Jones, National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, “Presentation to Oregon Higher Education Coordinating Commission,” August 2016.
Unique Challenges for Oregon
The HECC Board is a relatively new entity leading in a fiscally competitive environment with a very active legislature.
“The most persistent policy gap is that state finance policy is disconnected from public
agenda goals for higher education.”- Aims McGuinness “State Policy Leadership for the Future,” Education Commission of the States, May 2016
Strategies for Moving Forward
Establish and abide by clear roles and responsibilities that are distinct from those of the institutions.
Prioritize strategies that will be most impactful for the most students within the constrained fiscal environment.
Implement leadership training for the HECC Board to ensure competency with necessary capacities Seek a trainer that understands the role of a coordinating
board as opposed to the role of a board that oversees only a single institution
Unique Challenges for Oregon
The state does not have an expanding number of students in the pipeline to meet the state’s aggressive attainment goal.
Strategies for Moving Forward
Improve and leverage the statewide longitudinal database to engage in evidence-based decision-making.
Consider appropriate policy levers that incentivize the institutions to serve more students better. Implement funding strategies that incentivize student success
Outcomes-based funding at the two-year institutions Incentivize institutions to explore and implement evidence-
based strategies that improve student outcomes Dual/Concurrent Enrollment Guided Pathways Redesign of Developmental Education
Explore comprehensive, proven ways to successfully serve adult students
In the End…
Data to inform decisionsPolicy to solve problemsPolitical Will to make things
happen
Contact Information
Joe GarciaPresident
jgarcia@wiche.eduwww.wiche.edu