Post on 08-Jan-2016
description
Optimization Re-Engineering AllianceAlliance AscensionAgenda
This plan describes a unique opportunity to choreograph a collaborative alliance of the computer firms to create a renaissance of the demand-pull that built the industry.
The IT Turning Point
• The IT Crisis– Commodity build-out no longer sustainable
• Algorithmic programming is obsolete
• Middleman programming is obsolete
• Neither can articulate post-industrial demand
– Zero-sum fashion loop only sustains Microsoft• Labor arbitrage is ravaging IT elsewhere
• Web improvements increase the arbitrage
• Rebooting the Computer Industry
An Alliance Business Model
the Computer Industry
Optimization Rapid Prototyping
Optimization Re-Engineering
Computer Demand Pullwit
h
to
with
and
R&DComputersQuickSolutions& TurnkeySoftware
BusinessSoftwareMaintenanceAndEvolution
Point to Point Mentoring and Consulting
Metacyber .Net
ProblemMetaphoric SyntaxStratum: FIND a,x,b,y to MINIMIZE z
call stor(z,add(mul(a,x),mul(b,y)))
Translated Model
Algebraic FormulaStratum:
z = a*x + b*yModel
Arithmetic Stratumz = a*x + b*yz = (a*x+x*a)+(b*y+y*b)
BY engine
MetaForCompiler
FortranCompiler
Automatic Differentiation (calculus arithmetic)
MetaPythonMetaPerl
MetaBasMetaC
MetaC++
MetaJava
C compiler
Strategy: Co-opt current software mass movements:
FIND a,x,b,y BY engine to MINIMIZE zMetaphoric SyntaxStratum:
Algebraic FormulaStratum:
z = a*x + b*yModel
call stor(z,add(mul(a,x),mul(b,y)))
MetaForCompiler
Arithmetic Stratumz = a*x + b*yz = (a*x+x*a)+(b*y+y*b)
FortranCompiler
(Science Interns)
MENU
EXECUTIVESYNOPSIS
SOURCE CODEDESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION
SOURCE CODEIN PREFORMATTED HTML
ELEMENT1
ELEMENT2
ELEMENTn...
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
Modeling ParadigmModeling Paradigm
INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION
ROOT FINDINGROOT FINDING
OPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Interchangeable Solution ToolsInterchangeable Solution Tools
Meta Calculus EngineMeta Calculus EngineMeta Calculus EngineMetaphoric Tool AlphabetMetaphoric Tool Alphabet
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
MENU
EXECUTIVESYNOPSIS
SOURCE CODEDESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION
SOURCE CODEIN PREFORMATTED HTML
ELEMENT1
ELEMENT2
ELEMENTn...
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
CollabNotes ORE
Mining
ORE Mining
Modeling Libraries
MetaBas
C-DVMMeta-C
MetaC++MetaJavaMetaPerl
Base Languages
Recasting
Modeling Paradigm
SYSTEMS SIMULATION
SYSTEMS CORRELATION
SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Interchangeable Solution Tools
Digital Calculus Computation Engine
Metaphoric Solution Tools
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
Modeling ParadigmModeling Paradigm
SYSTEMS SIMULATIONSYSTEMS SIMULATION
SYSTEMS CORRELATIONSYSTEMS CORRELATIONSYSTEMS CORRELATION
SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATIONSYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Interchangeable Solution ToolsInterchangeable Solution Tools
Digital Calculus Computation Engine
Digital Calculus Computation Engine
Metaphoric Solution ToolsMetaphoric
Solution Tools
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
Common API Library
Fortran 77
MetaPython
Ansi-C
New R&D Apps
MetaForMetaCalc
Fortran-DVM
MetaFor-DVM
• Co-opting OSS– New IT recycling agenda
– University collaboration• Standard engineering
Component Build-out
Modeling Libraries
OOP optimization
Meta Engineering Library Substructure
GUI SuperstructureProblem-Oriented Optimization
• OSSGraphicsProductBuild-out
New face of
Funding R&D
BBBBarter Bond
Bank
Capital Services
MSFMeta ScienceFoundation
Non Profit Software Utility
Modeling ParadigmModeling Paradigm
INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION
ROOT FINDINGROOT FINDING
OPTIMIZATIONOPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Interchangeable Solution ToolsInterchangeable Solution Tools
Meta Calculus EngineMeta Calculus EngineMeta Calculus EngineMetaphoric Tool AlphabetMetaphoric Tool Alphabet
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
Shared Consulting Matrix
Etc.
Etc.
MCN MetacyberNet
Metacyber .Net
IXNET
Brand Service Firms
Instant XtraNET
(Choreographer)
Modeling ParadigmModeling Paradigm
SYSTEMS SIMULATIONSYSTEMS SIMULATION
SYSTEMS CORRELATIONSYSTEMS CORRELATIONSYSTEMS CORRELATION
SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATIONSYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Interchangeable Solution ToolsInterchangeable Solution Tools
Digital Calculus Computation Engine
Digital Calculus Computation Engine
Metaphoric Solution ToolsMetaphoric
Solution Tools
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
Alliance Software Products
• Infrastructure Tools – Foundation– Meta-Calculus (MC) Languages, APIs & Libraries– Meta Engineering (ME) Common Libraries
• Extrastructure Tools – Franchises– Meta-Science (EvoScoped MC) Languages– Emergent Apps & Wizards – Joint Ventures– Computer-Utility Bundled Infrastructure (IXNET)
• Network Matrix Consulting Admin Tools
• ExtraWall VPN – Instant Extranets
• Voice-Image Session Packaging (VISP) Tools
Software Pricing Systems
• Subscription Service Pricing for all Software– Like telecommunications– Credit cards– Utility/feature based to reward developers
• Eliminates software upgrade sales– Eliminates fashion agenda– Styles only change to suit user request
• Automatic (opt-in) or Requested Maintenance
Service Business Modes• Brand Franchisers (IXNET-science, MCN-business)
– Computer Utility (IXNET)– Consulting Matrix Franchisor (both)– Software Contracting Agency (both)– Systems A&E Contractors (IXNET)
• Consulting Matrix Subcontracting– ORP Mentoring Projects (IXNET branded)– ORP Modeling Projects (IXNET branded)– Large ORE-ORP Projects (IXNET branded)– EvoScoping – Software Maintenance and Evolution – ORE-ORP Mentoring (IXNET branded)– Foundation Software Development
Metacyber .Net
Metacyber .Net
Metacyber .Net
ORP Mentoring Projects Branded
• Applications inside the MC Envelope– Programming Skills Required Only– Framing problem in MC template– Selection of solvers
• Applications outside the MC Envelope– E.g. PDE – Math reduction required
• Choreographer agent selects mentor– Negotiates support rate
ORP Modeling ProjectsBranded
• Client is not the expert– Only provides application requirements
• Consultant is physicist or engineer– Graduate student or assistant professor
• Choreographer Engineer Selects Consultant– Negotiates higher premium rate
Large ORE-ORP Projects Branded
• Choreographer acts as program office
• Uses consultant matrix as talent base– Application scientists– Applied mathematicians– Software engineers
• Full life cycle with production deployment
• Advanced technology development
ORE MentoringBranded
• Consultant programmers & mathematicians
• Client supplies simulation expertise– Consultants mentor clients in ORE work– Apply solver experience for difficult
optimization
EvoScoping MaintenanceBranded
• Business code maintenance (e.g. Cobol)– Refurbisining and documenting old code– Educating old code stakeholders– Economic revitalization– Repurposing old code
• Bread & Butter sustaining contracts– Interleaved with IXNET mentoring
Metacyber .Net
Alliance Startup (Phase 1)• Prepare PR Campaign
– Create MetaScience.us Website with MC7 Demo– Publish Manifesto: ORE Book
• Form Foundation & Seek Philanthropic Funds– Acquire MetacyberNet (MCN) control or IP– Finish MC8 Languages: MetaFor, MetaCalc, MetaC– M1 - Build Portals and Browser Plug-in IDE
• Seek Angel or VC Funding for Brand Franchisors– MCN – Build Webcode & Lockstep-VCS for MC8 languages– IXNET – Configure Franchisee Subnet Computer Products– Launch Mono-Portals for Franchisee Attraction– Start Monthly Franchisee Recruiting Symposia
• Seek Computer Firm Sponsorships in Foundation– HP, Sun, IBM, SGI, Intel, AMD, Apple
Alliance Startup (Phase 2)• MSF - Build Meta Science OOP Languages
– MetaC++, MetaJava, MetaPerl, MetaPython compilers
• MCN – Build Webcode generators for OOP languages• MSF – Cluster-Portals Development
– Build MetaFor-DVM and MetaC-DVM Platforms– Extend MC8 API for MC9 (OB) and MC10 (PMC) Capability– Build and Launch Cluster Portals
• IXNET – OREA Network Marketing Campaign– ORP Mentoring Campaign to Start R&D Race– ORE Mining Campaign to Application Industry
• MSF - ORE Recasting Campaign in Universities• IXNET – CAD/CAM/CEC Diffusion Campaign
– Joint ventures in semi-staple vertical market domains– Semi-staple POO wizards development & marketing
PR Campaign – All Important
• Create a World-Centric Renaissance Cause– AI was a dream that had no leverage, no need
– OOP had recycle leverage but no need-demand
– Meta science has simplicity, leverage, need-demand, and a coherent prosperity plan
• Motivate Metaphoric Software Design for Prosperity– Post-industrial demand articulation from R&D need base
• Diversification fan-out by diversified end-user invention
• Not economically feasible via middleman algorithmic programming
– Middlemen must build higher media for end-users• Only end-users can articulate post-industrial demand
• Computer industry must adopt a new agenda
End of Presentation
Sub 1
MC
Modeling Paradigm
SYSTEMS SIMULATION
SYSTEMS CORRELATION
SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Interchangeable Solution Tools
Meta Calculus EngineMetaphoric Tool Alphabet
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
Modeling Paradigm
SYSTEMS SIMULATION
SYSTEMS CORRELATION
SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION
Meta CalculusExtended Languages
Digital Calculus Computation Engine
Metaphoric
Solution Tools
Languages:
Tools:
System:API
AutomaticDifferentiation
MENU
EXECUTIVESYNOPSIS
SOURCE CODEDESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION
SOURCE CODEIN PREFORMATTED HTML
ELEMENT1
ELEMENT2
ELEMENTn...
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
Inverse Problem NestingParadigm
CompiledLanguages
InterpretiveLanguages
AD Pioneering 1966-1980
• MC1 – Model Compiler – NASA Apollo 1966• MC2 – MODTRAN - FORTRAN Interpreter 1967
– Optimization & Estimation Modeling with Fixed Algorithms
• MC3 – SLANG - Macro Language 1968– Added ODE Algorithm Differentiation
• MC4 – SLANG/CUE 1969– Modular/Relocatable Programs & Algorithms
• MC5 – PROSE - Commercial Batch Processing 1973– CDC Cyber, IBM 370, Univac 1100 Service Bureaus
• MC6 – TSPROSE - Commercial Interactive 1975 – CDC Cyber Systems (Cybernet, United Computing Systems)– Stabilization of Meta Calculus Paradigm
16-bit Hiatus – Automatic differentiation infeasible on segmented memories
• MC7 – Fortran Calculus – DOS PC (protected mode) Version 1990• MC8 – MetaFor, MetaCalc Common Language API (In Development) 2005• MC9 – ASDL Distributed MC, MetaFor, MetaCalc, MetaC 2006
– Optimization Broadcasting
• MC10 – NSF QDMS (Parallel Meta Calculus) 2007
Meta Calculus Language Evolution
Sub 2
ORP
Short Fuse Needs
Math Sophistication
Black Hole
Programming Time (weeks) 3 6 9 12 15 18
Proposals
Design
Testing
Nested InverseProblems
Optimization
SimulationAlgebra
Correlation
DEMAND:Cost-Time Limited
Meta Calculus Languages
FORTRAN-Level Languages
Low CostDevelopment
High Cost Development
SUPPLY:Utility-Time Limited
C, C++, JavaMATLAB
Reviving Industrial R&D Reviving Industrial R&D
PENT-UP Demand in R&DFast Response End-User Programming
Short Fuse Needs
Math Sophistication
FORTRAN-Level Languages
Low CostDevelopment
High Cost Development
DEMAND:Cost-Time Limited
SUPPLY:Utility-Time Limited
Black Hole
Programming Time (weeks) 3 6 9 12 15 18
Proposals
Design
Testing
Nested InverseProblems
Optimization
SimulationAlgebra
Correlation
Fast Response End-User Programming
C, C++, JavaMATLAB
8 weeks to prove concept~ $20K budget tolerance
Meta Calculus Languages
Window of Opportunity
Inverse Problems Track Record
• Hughes Aircraft - Satellite Antenna Design Optimization - 3 weeks– FORTRAN estimate = 6 months
• R&D Associates - Maximum Likelihood Estimation - 2.5 hours - Mentored– FORTRAN estimate = 1 week
• Rockwell International - Space Telescope Optics - 2 days - Mentored
• Goodyear - Radial Tire Design – 1 hour - Mentored– 6 month FORTRAN effort unsuccessful
• Tektronix - Electron Trajectory Optimization - 3 Weeks - Mentored
• Ford Aerospace - Laser System Design - 3 days
• Wyle Laboratories - Noise Abatement Optimization - 1 day
• Sierracin Magnedyne - AC Motor Design Optimization - 1 day - Mentored
• TRW - Optical Systems Optimization - 3 weeks– 6 months FORTRAN effort unsuccessful
• Bechtel Corp. - Steam Power Electric Network - 3 Weeks - Mentored
PROSE (MC5,6) HISTORY
• Tektronix - CRT Design
• National Steel & Shipbuilding - Tanker Design
• Watkins-Johnson - Travelling Wave Tube Design
• GTE - Telephone System Provisional Planning
• Hughes - Antenna Design Beam Synthesis
• DuPont - Advanced X-ray System Design
• Goodyear - Radial Tire Design
• Sierracin Magnedyne - AC Motor Design
• Bechtel Power - Steam Power Electric Network Design
PROSE (MC5,6) HISTORY
Knife, Fork & Spoon Feeding
Horizontal Sales Application Spawning
Sub 3
ORE
MODEL DESIGN
FMODEL PUMP
MetaFor
SUBROUTINE DESIGN
FUNCTION PUMP
Fortran
Optimization Re-EngineeringOptimization Re-Engineering
Simulation Program Optimization Program
CompSci Intern Role
FIND
OPTIMIZATION
Renaissance A&E
Short Fuse Needs
Math Sophistication
FORTRAN-Level Languages
Meta-Science Languages
Priming and Priming and Fueling Fueling the R&D Racethe R&D Race
SOAR CompetitionFAST Competition
Renaissance A&E
LIFT
–LIFT:Leveraging Invested FORTRAN Technology
FASTPrototyping Production
–FAST: Fast Application Software Turnaround SOAR
–SOAR:State
of the Art Racing
Proliferating CAD into Non-Staple Proliferating CAD into Non-Staple DesignDesign
– Do it yourself CAD• New problems
• New technology
– High evolution• Rapid prototyping
• Quick time-to-market
– Invention CAD• Invention byproducts
• Cottage industry
Commodities Custom
Engineer Entrepreneur Role
Renaissance A&E
Optimization Broadcasting
MIMD - Different Solvers(Different Knives & Forks)
SIMD - Same model, different start coordinates
Distributed Meta Calculus
Propulsion
Structures
Power
SystemOptimization
SubsystemsOptimization
FIND X IN ONE TO MINIMIZE F
OPTIMIZATION SOLVER
Controls
Distributed Meta Science
CONTROLSCONTROLSSTRUCTURES
STRUCTURES
ELECTRONICSELECTRONICSPROPULSION
PROPULSION
Concurrent Concurrent Engineering OptimizationEngineering Optimization
SubOptimizationSubOptimization
SubOptimization
SubOptimization
O-Parts
O-Parts O-Parts
O-Parts
DesignSoftware
Mfg.Software
ControlSoftware
R&DSoftware
STRUCTURES CONTROLS
PROPULSION ELECTRONICS
SubOptimization
SubOptimization
WEB
VPNHolon Subnets Holon Subnets
Holon Subnets Holon Subnets
Industrial Meta Science
Sub 4
MSF
Foundation
• Member-Only Source Access– Exclusive infrastructure developer
• Key function – Co-opt OSSAD– Potentially millions of contract contributors– Rewarded with Barter Bonds (BBs)
• Software usage wholesaler to member firms– Income redeems BBs in FIFO order
• Meta Calculus Portal Host– Development & Beta Testing
Software Products
Infrastructure Tools• Meta-Calculus (MC) Base Languages
– MetaCalc, MetaBas – ORP Focused
– MetaFor, MetaC – ORE Focused
• APIs & Libraries• Cluster Compilers, APIs & Libraries
– MetaFor-DVM, C-DVM
• MC OOP Languages– MetaC++, MetaJava, MetaPerl, MetaPython
• Meta Engineering (ME) Common Libraries
Sub 5
MATRIX
Shared Consulting Matrix
• Small business consulting firms– E.g. Family firms
• Husband – physicist• Wife – programmer• Kids – hackers
• Franchisee service units for brand sales– All brand sales by franchisor agencies
• IXNET (scientific) - Choreographer • MetacyberNet (business) • Others (business)
Metacyber .Net
Local IXNETAccount Management
Site Rep/Scout
Network Matrix Consulting
ModelingConsultants
Remote
Application Modeling
Math
Remote
Consultants
Remote
Technical Management
Project Engineer
IXNET
Customer
Problem Solving & Prototyping
Shared Consulting Matrix
Inhouse Mentoring (high touch)
Online Mentoring & Consulting
CompSci Intern Role
High touch High tech
Public Internet
Mentoring & Consulting via Extranet
HEADQUARTERS
IXNET BRANCHES™
™
™
™
Sub 6
IXNET
Choreographer Brand Franchisor (IXNET)
• Computer and Instant Extranet Utility– Lease of subnet computers to consulting matrix
– Uniform config, sys-admin, maintenance
– Instant Extranet Project Choreographer
• Meta Science Portal Host• Consultant matrix franchisee training• Meta science consulting agency
– Scientific sales channel for consulting matrix
• Meta science software contractor
IXNET Computer Utility ProductsBundled Alliance Infrastructure Node Subnets
• ExtraWall Firewall and VPN – Instant Extranets
• Voice-Image Session Packaging– Communication Tools
• Network Matrix Consulting– Admin Tools
™
Public Internet
Instant Extranet VPN
MEMBERS
™
™
™
™
™
HEADQUARTERS
Project
Rapid team synthesis for ad-hoc software projects
Voice-Image Session Packaging
• “Show me” dialog recording
• “Assembly-line” support
• “Internet-time” response
Recorded Session Package
Tier 1 Mentor
Customer
Replay
Tier 2 Engineer
Replay
Tier 3 Mathematicians
Computer Utility Bundled Product
Sub 7
MCN
• Software Maintenance Tools - EvoScope– Integrated Code and Web Documentation
• Richly annotated exploded views, web-linkable
• Understandable by users and managers as well as by coders
– Maintained in LockStep by Web-Based Version Control
• Total Quality Management of enterprise software– Rapid Comprehension documentation, strictly maintained
• language-independent, web presented, web maintained
– Preserves and enhances your company’s vital assets
META
C Y B E R
MetacyberNetSoftware that manages evolution
TM
Formula for Success
META
C Y B E R
MetacyberNet Service Contracting
Onsite Mentoring
+
High Touch
+
EvoScopeTM
Linux Server
Web Tools Automation
Network MatrixConsulting
=
Economy of Scale
WorldwideCollaborativeMaintenance
Service
New TQM Paradigm
MENU
EXECUTIVESYNOPSIS
SOURCE CODEDESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION
SOURCE CODEIN PREFORMATTED HTML
ELEMENT1
ELEMENT2
ELEMENTn...
• Licenses Bundled with Service Contracts• Multi-Level License Fees
• Browse, Generate, Annotate, Collaborate
CustomersManagers
CollabNotesCollab
Notes
Programmers
CollabNotes
User Peers
CollabNotes
Metacyber.Net
Linux Server
EvoScope WebCode Appliance
Tooltip Links & Notes Allow Powerful Multi-layered Documentation
MENU
EXECUTIVESYNOPSIS
SOURCE CODEDESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION
SOURCE CODEIN PREFORMATTED HTML
ELEMENT1
ELEMENT2
ELEMENTn
...
Emulates program flowfor rapid comprehension
Metacyber.Net
Subroutine callmouse-overannotationtool-tip links
TooltipNotesTooltip
NotesFootnote annotationmouse-overtool-tip links
TooltipNotes
menu access links
TooltipNotes
Variable refmouse-overannotationtool-tip links
TooltipNotes
MENU
EXECUTIVESYNOPSIS
SOURCE CODEDESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION
SOURCE CODEIN PREFORMATTED HTML
ELEMENT1
ELEMENT2
ELEMENTn...
Network Matrix Consulting
Tier 1 User Peer Mentor
Customer
Tier 2 Project Engineer
Tier 3 ProgrammersEvoScopeTM
Linux Server
Metacyber .Net
Metacyber .Net
Metacyber .Net
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
CollabNotesCollab
Notes
CollabNotes
CollabNotes
Work PackageArchitect
Metacyber.Net
Sub 8
CAPSERV
Capital Services
• Barter-Bond Bank– Administrator of BB securities– Market Maker of BB securities
• Funding R&D and Factoring Services– Mutual and venture fund development– Robot Trading R&D Project (Prior Work)
• Open source based – Genius Trader
• Augmented with meta calculus technology
Funding R&D
BBBBarter Bond
Bank
Barter Bond Financing
• IOU Payment to Volunteer Developers– Redeemed from derived Foundation income– Redeemed in FIFO order– Better incentive than open-source
• IOU Payment by Consultant Franchisees– For computer lease, franchise fees etc.– Redeemed by performing labor
• Accrues value as bond interest
Sub 9
TZONE
Robot Trader
Prototype Product Research
Extension of Genius Trader for Options Trading
Roundup
TickerBase
BackBase
CandBase
BullSector
Yahoo
TadaFilter
UserScripts
OptionMaker
TzoneWebSite
6000+tickers
1000+tickers & open-int
1000+stock histories
50+candidate stocks
1:30pm
2:00pm
2:30pm
CandBase
Orders
5:30am
OXStrategy
Yahoo
6000+option chains
CandBase
OXOrders
OXPositions
Yahoo
EDWebGen4:30pm
EDWebAgents6:30pm
OpenMan
6:30am
User Shell Scripts
Perl Driver Scripts
TZ API Modules
External Websites
VPN Internal Website
Pgsql Databases
Tzone Trading Cycle & Simulation Architecture
150+candidate options
Review of 150+candidate options Selection of 20+
candidate trades
Simulation Control
Replay and Backtesting
Selection List
Intraday Stock &Option Chains OptionsFeed
6:30amStockBarsFeed
6:30amCandBase
DayTrader6:30am
(Remote Procedures)
OX Agent
Broker
TZSimWebSite
BackBase
SimulatorAnytime
TZSim Modules
TZSim Website
Manual Approval Meeting Realtime
NonSim
NonSim
Phase 1 Prototype
“Tada” Theory• Technical Analysis of Daily Action (Tada - Holon)
– Stock History (starting 6 months prior to trade date)– Selection - GT Buy/Sell signal on trade date– Tada Assemblies (Bottom up Hierarchies – Holons)
• Various Indicators (MACD, MFI,RSI)• Various Signals (Indicator Combinations, eg. MACD-MFI)• Various Vanes (Buy/Sell Decision Makers – GT “systems”)
• Tada 13 Theory – ZigZag Swing Trading– Focus on Stock Cycle Channel (Range)– De-trended Channel for Trending Stocks– Re-trade on closing to catch swing
• Confirm with Rocket Science (Ehlers)– Hilbert Frequency Domain Analysis (Future)
ZigZag Swing Theory (early version without de-trending)
Average of bottom peaks
Average down angleAverage of top peaks
EDT*
* EDT: Estimated Days to Target
BTF-WID (Weekly-Intraday)
Back to the future (Daily)
BTF-D
Bullish-Bearish Degrees
• Wide Trades – Coded ‘B’ or ‘S’ (BUY or SELL)– ‘B’ – Below average-bottom line on upslope or up day
– ‘S’ – Above average-top line on downslope or down day
• Edge Trades – Coded ‘b’ or ‘s’ (buy or sell)– ‘b’ – At or near-above average-bottom line, etc.
– ‘s’ – At or near-below average-top line, etc.
• Mid Trades – Coded ‘bs’ or ‘sb’ (buy-sell or sell-buy)– ‘bs’ – Below mid-point between avg-bottom & avg-top
– ‘sb’ – Above mid-point between avg-bottom & avg-top
Filtering with Tandem Tadas
Tada Rating: GainRate = TradeGain * PeakRate ($/month) ($/swing) (swings/month)
Merging of tandem tada
ratingsAveraging of 2 tandem tadasDifferent according to gainparameter of ZigZag Indicator
Edge trade (s)
Wide trade (S)
Wide trade (B)
CandBase
Tadamon Daemon
Tada15 50+candidate stocks
Orders
TradeBase
Simulation Architecture Re-factoring
OpenMan
Selection List
EDWebAgents
EDWebGen
CandBase
BackBaseOXBroker
Clock Simulator
TzoneWebSite
Review of 150+candidate options Selection of 20+
candidate trades
Manual Approval Meeting
Simulation Control
Replay and Backtesting
TZSimWebSite
DayTrader
Intraday Profiles
HistBase
Roundup
TickerBase
16000+tickers
1000+tickers & open-int
OptionMaker3
CandBase
150+candidate options
BackBase
TadaFilter4 Spliced Intraday histories
Updated Daily—Comprehensive daily data up to yesterday
Tada14
TadaFleshout
Tada Daily Price histories 2000+
option chains
CandBase
TadaFleshout
Tada Daily Price histories
Machine-Gun & Re-Order Requests
TradeBase
Machine-Gun (MG) Simulation Architecture
EDWebGen
OXBroker
Clock SimulatorDaily Pause Triggering
(Semi-Automatic Firing)
Interactive Simulation Control
Replay and Backtesting
TZSimWebSite
DayTrader
HistBase
Roundup
TickerBase
16000+tickers
1000+tickers & open-int
2000+option chains
BackBase
Tadamon
Tada15
Tada14
EDWebAgents
Orders
30sec-Day Reply Cycle
30sec-Day Request Cycle
CandBase
TickerBase
TadaJobTada14
Tada15
OpenMan
BrokerSimulator
Phase 2 Prototype
Simulator Run Modes & Objectives
• Single-Shot Shotgun Mode (Each pellet is a trade)– Tracks the trajectory of one-day’s trade launch
– Re-trades on swings qualified by TadaMon daemon• Request-reply cycle through TickerBase feeds work from DayTrader
• Current positions only, TadaMon generates new trades
• Machine-Gun Mode – Fires Shotgun each day– New OpenMan Cycle for each day (new batch of trades into the mix)
– Deals with aggregate of all trades (easily 500-1000 active trades)
• Primary Objective – Test & Validate DayTrader– Single shot shotgun (now) can test position management
– Machine shotgun needed to validate portfolio management.
• Secondary Objective – Optimize Trading Strategy– Single shot is adequate for this, mostly
• Current Status – Machine-Gun Not Yet Operational
Re-Trading Simulations• Next slides illustrate re-trading simulation
– Used to validate TadaMon daemon
• Re-trading focused on Puts & Calls only– A move away from combination trades (e.g. spreads)
– But Straddles/Strangles (mid-trades) were openers• According to a naïve pairing strategy, subsequently discarded
• TadaMon results initially accepted for wide date intervals– Exact date of closing trade might not have new opener
– Any TadaMon opener within -2 days to +5 days was accepted• To check out the re-trading logic
– Only some closings could catch a new opener• Wide intervals accepted less than optimum re-trades
Retrade
Retrade
Retrade
What Has Been Achieved
• Development of Fully Automatic Trading Software– Proof of automatic factory trading of options
• Reliable sifting of best trades each day– From all stocks in US markets– Optimization of option trades for those stocks
• Automatic opening of best trades through broker website• Automatic position management through broker website
– Automatic day-trading with intraday feeds– Automatic re-trading after profit-taking
– Proof of swing trading factory strategy• Automatic selection of best batch of trades daily• Continuous profit taking to maximize revenue
• A Basis for revolutionary wealth generation
Work Still to be Done
• Hilbert Tadas – To Confirm ZigZag Tadas– Available in TA-LIB, a C-library
• We converted to a Perl Extension – not yet applied
– Important for TadaMon Dynamic Control
• Implementation of Dynamic Control– TadaMon Daily Updates of Active Positions
• Check if trades behaving as forecast
• If not, switch to exit lane strategies
– Strip Mining – Multi-Lane Closing Strategies• Dynamic Lane Changing is Control Mode
Strip Mining
• Fast Lane – Highest Rated Swingers– High GainRate, High Peakrate– High pumpers, up-stroke & down-stroke– High threshold trailing stop strategies
• Slow Lane – Change-Up Situations– Not Meeting expectations, but not losers– Low theshold trailing stop strategies
• Exit Lane – Suspected Losers– Minimum loss strategies:
• Timestops, TimeTrailStops, etc.
– Aim: Cut losses early
EDTBTF-D
Key to Strip Mining: TadaMon Monitoring of Positions
Check if EDT and ZigZag angle is accurate (+- 50%) If yes, set trailing stop when target is crossed If no, switch lanes to slow or exit lanes
Re-trade
Trade Date
TadaJob HistoricalTechnical Analysis Trade Selection
TadaMon ActivePosition Management Trade Selection
Sub 10
IT Crisis
As computing cost fell
And labor cost rose
The burden should have shifted
From expensive labor
To cheap machines
via
Metaphoric Programming
Languages
10000
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
$22000
$50
$10
$0.08
1957 1965 1972 1980
DailyComputingCost
$70
$150 $200$100
DailyLaborCost
Diminishing Returns Since 1965
C, C++, Smalltalk, Java, JavaScript, Perl, Python, Pascal, Modula 2,3,4, VB, PowerBuilder, VBScript, C#, SQL PL/SQL, Transact SQL, Delphi, PHP, Yacc, Bison, Bshell, Cshell, Kshell, COBOL,FORTRAN, BASIC
Excel, MATLAB, Maple, Mathematica,
Limited Tools Unlimited Tools
Primary Creator Modelers
Middleman IT Labor Implementers
End User Army
End User Army
Programmer Army
Programmer Army
Functional Division of Labor
LE
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Y W
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AR
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N A
NA
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SIS
& D
ES
IGN
Established in the 1950’s
IteratedIterated Middleman IT Labor Middleman IT Labor
• Modeling LevelModeling Level– Problem Model– What to solve
• Programming LevelProgramming Level– Math Mechanics– How to solve it
• Computing LevelComputing Level– Debugging
Frozen Modeling – Can’t Evolve
FormulateProblem
FormulateAlgorithm
ProduceProgram
DebugProgram
ProblemProblemLevelLevel
AlgorithmAlgorithmLevelLevel
ComputingComputingLevelLevel
Inverseleverage
IT Employment Growth in Staple RecyclingIT Employment Growth in Staple Recycling
How Sales of Standard Packages Overtook Custom Software
IT Recycled Staple Commodity IT Recycled Staple Commodity
PackagesPackages
Business Week, 1980
Algorithmic LanguagesIndustrial High Cost Production via
IT Focus left R&D HomelessIT Focus left R&D Homeless
– Staple Software• Old problems that
recur
• High economy of scale
– Custom Needs Go Begging
DEMAND
DENSITY
Commodities Custom
Low NumberCrunching Need
High NumberCrunching Need
“You see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”
.... Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate Economist
Harvard:
– “Computers are not pulling their weight.”– Productivity Growth : 1950’s --- 2.4%
1980’s --- 1.3%
Overall Results:
Too powerful = unneeded = Too powerful = unneeded = unsoldunsold
“Computers are too powerful for the usages to which they are being put.”
Harvard Business Review
1991
• Historical Impedance to Engineering Demand– Inverse Leverage from Labor Iteration
• Exorbitant Cost
• Intolerable Delay
• Stillborn Renaissance from Unshifted Paradigm– Economic Imbalance & Homeless R&D
– Market Saturation & Cosmetic Consumption
• Driver for a New Computing Renaissance:
IT Agenda No Longer Sustainable
• Zero-Sum Recycling Agenda is Overbuilt– Sustains Microsoft but momentum is gone– Labor arbitrage is imploding the industry– Global web advance increases arbitrage
• IT Can’t Articulate Post-Industrial Demand– Algorithmic programming too expensive – Middleman labor no longer economic– Cannot engage end-user invention
• The Computer Industry Must Reboot Itself– From the R&D pent-up need base