Post on 14-Dec-2015
ONR Workshop on
Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System
13-14 Apr 2011Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI)
Atlanta, GA
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ONR SponsorDr. Ivy EstabrookeDeputy Director, OSD HSCB Modeling ProgramProgram Manager, Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences and Modeling, ONR
GTRI ContactDr. Lora G. WeissLab Chief ScientistGeorgia Tech Research Institute250 14th Street NWAtlanta, GA 30332-0822(o) 404-407-7611(c) 404-357-1523Lora.Weiss@gtri.gatech.edu
ONR Workshop onHuman Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System
13-14 Apr 2011Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI)
Atlanta, GA
Agenda 13 April0730-0800 Badges and Breakfast0800-0815 Welcome & Logistics Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI0815-0900 Opening Remarks Mr. George Solhan, ONR 0900-0945 Keynote Speaker Dr. David Snowden, Cognitive Edge0945-1030 Complexity - A Diverse Description
Dr. Norman Johnson, Referentia1030-1045 Break
1045-1130 Complex System Engineering Tom McDermott, GTRI1130-1215 Case Studies for Context Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR
1215-1345 Catered Lunch
1345-1415 Computational Social Science Dr. Robert Axtell, GMU1415-1445 Challenges with Quantifying the Qualitative
Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI1445-1500 Break
1500-1600 Case Study Breakout SessionsGroup 1 Chair: Dr. Jack Zentner, GTRIGroup 2 Chair: Dr. David Sallach, Argonne
National Lab
1600 -1645 Closing Remarks for Day 1 Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR1700 Networking Reception1730 Dinner Guest Speaker: BG David Reist (ret)
14 April0730-0800 Badges and Breakfast0800-0815 Welcome & Logistics Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI0815-0830 Introductory Remarks Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR0830-0915 Keynote Speaker Dr. John Nagl, CNAS0915 - 1130 Group Working Sessions
• Break at 1015
1130-1300 Catered Lunch, Lunchtime Speaker Dr. Neil Johnson
University of Miami1300-1345 Working Sessions
• Presentation development1345-1415 Group 1 Findings1415-1445 Group 2 Findings
1445-1515 Closing Remarks Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR1515 Adjourn
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Wireless Access Instructions
To connect to the GTRI-CONF wireless network, select the GTRI-CONF wireless network from the available wireless networks. Click on the GTRI-CONF network, when prompted for the security key, use the security key provided below. To access the internet, open your browser, and when prompted by the WEB portal, use the user id and password provided for the conference.
Network Type: WPA/WPA2SSID: GTRI-CONF – 2nd blank needs to be AESSecurity Key: STINGER! USERNAME: hiiwPASSWORD: br36jf56SSID: GTRI-Conf
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AnthropologyCriminology
CommunicationSciences
EducationEconomicsGeography
Political SciencePsychology
ReligionSociologyOthers…
Understanding ROMO Understanding the Human Environment
Understanding Power and Influence Understanding the Environment
…from George Solhan’s Presentation
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MULTI-SCALE INTERACTIONS
SCALE
Macro
Meso
Micro
Society
Organization
IndividualCollective interactions form a group
Group and societal influences affect individuals
Dynamic and Unstructured Environment
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ROMO
Power/Influence
Human Environ.
Environ.- What are the key disciplines?- What are the key elements of the
disciplines?- What are the key interfaces between
the disciplines?- What are the key interfaces between
the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?
- How do we decompose these into building blocks so that hypotheses can be posed and tested?
From the building blocks, can we create a matrix of relevance across
- Phases of ROMO- Power dimensions- Human dimensions
Each Group will Deconstruct, Mix, and Re-construct
SCENARIOS AND WORKING GROUPS
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
Individuals
Groups
Society
Mubarak: Autocrat Individuals In Egypt
1000s Hundreds of 1000s
Egypt: 85 Million People World: 350 Million Arabs
Multi-Scale Interactions
TIME
PEOPLE
30 Years: Mubarak Rule10 Days: Uprising
Orderly or Chaotic Transition?
- Spontaneous- Massive- Peaceful- Popular- Secular (Islam not center
stage)
What will be the nature of this
transition?
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UPAutocracy leads to upheaval.
Democracy is best guarantor of stability.
ROMO
Power/Influence
Human Environ.
Environ.
4-5 (Security, Stability, Civil Authority)
Mubarak- Autocrat; clings to power; intimidation- Brutal and corrupt police force
Muslim Brothers- Anti-West, Anti-Israel- 20% popularity, but falling
Military- Control streets, respected by people
West- Influence political, business, & military elite- Help speed transition to order
Democratic Egypt- Beacon to region- Help incorporate Arab democracies- Settlement w/ Palestinians
- Generally poor- Sophisticated elite- Well educated middle
class- Strong sense of
national pride- Unemployed youth (@
20%)- Digitally driven
(internet)- What are the key
disciplines?- What are the key
elements of the disciplines?
- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines?
- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?
- How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested?
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
National Coordinator for Counterterrorism (NCTb), July 2010
Sadik Harchaoui, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Institute for Multicultural Development FORUM, the Netherlands.
FORUM is an independent knowledge institute and centre of expertise for multicultural affairs. FORUM operates out of the frame of reference of the democratic constitutional state, social cohesion and shared citizenship.
Countering Violent Extremists
ROMO
Power/Influence
Human Environ.
Environ.
0 (Shape, Prevent, Prepare)
Jihadi Extremists- West is enemy of Islam- Counter West with jihad
Western Governments (local & national)- De-radicalization and rehabilitation
programs- Empower liberal Muslims
Civil society (non-state) Actors- NGO’s
o Bring credibilityo Well equipped to engage in
dialogue- Local & regional networks
Islamic and Arabic World
Soft Power – ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments
- Doubts about democratic, political, or personnel legitimacy of system
- Socio-economic influences
- Ethnic-cultural positions- State propaganda may
further antagonize- Ordinary citizens willing
to build bridges between cultures
- Popular artists and sportsmen acting as ambassadors
- What are the key disciplines?
- What are the key elements of the disciplines?
- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines?
- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?
- How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested?
SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACYCountering Violent Extremists
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Individuals
Groups
Society
Multi-Scale Interactions
TIME
PEOPLE
SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Radicalization – slow and gradual process
NGO’s – Daily communications
NGO’s – Relationship building
Years
Days
Citizens - Against extremism- Rank and file with more practical and ordinary motivations- Alienated or estranged; ideologically, religiously, or ethnically
motivatedCivil Society (non-state) Actors - Gain financial and logistical support from government- Must remain independent from government to retain
credibility
Governments- Draw on expertise of society and business
Understanding ROMO0
Shape1
Deter2
Seize Initiative
3Dominate
4 Stabilize
5Enable Civil
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Other
Other
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Phase 0 Shape Prevent, PreparePhase 1 Deter Crisis definedPhase 2 Seize Initiative Assure friendly freedom of action / access theater infrastructurePhase 3 Dominate Establish dominant force capabilities / achieve full-spectrum superiorityPhase 4 Stabilize Establish security and restore servicesPhase 5 Enable Civil Transfer to civil authority and redeploy
RANGE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS (ROMO) PHASES
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Understanding Power & InfluenceTribalism Religious
StateFundamental
-ismTraditional
-ismDemocracy Zionism Other
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Other
Other
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Understanding the Human EnvironmentPhysiology Safety /
SecurityBelonging Esteem Self Actualization Other
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Other
Other